wills world renewable energy congress 8 feb17
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Policies, Emissions Trajectories & Renewable Energy Solutions
@ProfRayWills
Prof Ray Wills
Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
Roger’s diffusion curve
@ProfRayWills
The Big Bang Theory
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A Brief Moment in Time
Predicting anything is difficult
@ProfRayWills
Predicting anything is difficult
@ProfRayWills
And don’t forget the old tech exit
Understand difference between linear growth and exponential growth …n = % growth rate, 70/n years; So n = 1% doubling time is 70/1 = 70 years n = 2% doubling time is 70/2 = 35 years n = 5% doubling time is 70/5 = 14 years n = 7% doubling time is 70/7 = 10 years n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years n = 20% doubling time is 70/20 = 3.5 years n = 30% doubling time is 70/35 = 2 years
@ProfRayWills
Declining PV price
Bloomberg NEF
Understand difference between linear growth and exponential growth …n = % growth rate, 70/n years; So n = 1% doubling time is 70/1 = 70 years n = 2% doubling time is 70/2 = 35 years n = 5% doubling time is 70/5 = 14 years n = 7% doubling time is 70/7 = 10 years n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years n = 20% doubling time is 70/20 = 3.5 years n = 35% doubling time is 70/35 = 2 years
Solar increased 36% pa - 8 fold in 7 years, 2009 to 2016
@ProfRayWills
Solar rising – by fallingunderstanding exponential growth
@ProfRayWills
Solar rising – by fallingunderstanding exponential growth
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Global renewables growth …
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Global renewables growth and forecast
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Build it more cheaply
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Build it more quickly
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Global electricity generation capacity
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Global electricity generation capacity
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Electricity gen - where it’s needed
Electricity generation – IEA Total
n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years
Electricity generation - Europe
epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
Electricity generation - #Brexit
Electricity generation - Australia
Aus Carbon Price
Forecasts not based on experience
This is
poor scie
nce
And poorly in
forms
Policy o
utcomes
Forecasts not based on experience
This is
poor scie
nce
And poorly in
forms
Policy o
utcomes
Forecasts not based on observed data
This is
poor scie
nce
And poorly in
forms
Policy o
utcomes
China electricity generation additions
Forecasts based on science and data
Forecasts based on science and data
Nature Geoscience
US energy sources changing
US energy sources changing
Change in Energy
@ProfRayWills
Solar gen 1 (gen 2, gen 3, … ) 1st gen solar cell made from silicon
2nd gen solar cell thin-films 1st gen solar panels ‘fixed-on’
2nd gen emerging – building material: < cost labour, material 3rd gen solar cell – may be nanotubes, silicon wires, organic
dyes, and conductive plastics – lead to solar inks for printing, solar paint on any surface, personal wearables.
@ProfRayWills
Global renewables
Global renewables growth and forecast
@ProfRayWills
Global renewables growth and forecast
@ProfRayWills
Batteries – home storage + EVs
Change in Energy
@ProfRayWills
Solar as just another consumer product
We still need governments to act …
Cities also drive change
We need governments to act – but… Corporate social responsibility also drives change –
because empowered customers will accelerate change
Google, Amazon, Microsoft, IBM and Facebook formed an alliance to address the ethical issues.
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Individuals can act …
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New technology iterating faster - continuous increase in energy efficiency, rapid, exponential (non-linear) growth of renewables.
Investment and build of renewable generation capacity has eclipsed investment on fossil fuel generation
Changes in generation mix with intrusion of renewables impacts long held metrics of capital cost effectiveness of capacity factor for fossil fuel electricity generation.
Planners in traditional energy technology seem unprepared for change, not based on observations in past perturbations in energy markets.
Emissions reductions mechanisms still being pursued.
Global renewables growth and forecast
Forecasts of energy markets varied in timeline – but all predict coming dominance of renewable energy.
Rapid emergence + convergence of complementary technologies: energy storage, electrification of transport, and self-driving vehicles – and integrated in the emergence of ‘smart cities’ – all delivering additionality to momentum for change.
Sophistication of developing energy control systems changing paradigm of what is possible in 21stC
Multiple agents of change: not just government, but also business, consumer, and community drivers add much political pressure especially through social media channels.
Global renewables growth and forecast
World’s largest … taxi company owns no taxis (Uber) hotel chain owns no property (AirBnB) telcos own no wires (Skype, WeChat) retailers own no stock (Ebay, Alibaba) financial houses that hold no currency (PayPal) media service creates no content (Facebook) movie house owns no cinemas (Netflix) software vendors don’t write apps (Apple, Google)Will largest energy companies generate no energy?What other businesses will go virtual? (Can everything?)
Battlefield is slickest customer interface + experience
@ProfRayWills
WA’s largest … Sun Brilliance 100MW+ DC 165ha farm Cunderdin
WA wheatbelt, east of Perth Development to break new
ground on a number of fronts in the Australian – and global - solar market
Not shutting capacity – taking it
@ProfRayWills
@ProfRayWills