william h. frey the brookings institution america’s changing racial diversity from the bottom up

William H. FreyWilliam H. Frey

The Brookings The Brookings InstitutionInstitution

www.brookings.edu/experts/www.brookings.edu/experts/freywfreyw

America’sAmerica’s Changing Racial Changing Racial

DiversityDiversityFrom The Bottom UpFrom The Bottom Up

Source: William H. Frey analysis

US: Population by Age: 2010 US: Population by Age: 2010 and 2050and 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2010 2050

65+

45-54

20-44

Under 20

13%

20. %


US: Population by Race: 2010 US: Population by Race: 2010 and 2050and 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2010 2050

White

Black

Asian

HispanicOther

64%

46%


US Growth by Age 2000-10

211

3

-9

19

50

1812

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0- 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+


Median Ages of Race-Ethnic Median Ages of Race-Ethnic GroupsGroups

41

3430

27

20

05

1015202530354045

Whites Asians Blacks Hispanics 2+Races


Race Ethnic SharesRace Ethnic Shares

63.712.2

16.31.9

4.7

White Black Am Indian AsianHawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic

5.0

15.9

13.7

8.3

55.5

2010 Population

2000-10 Growth


2000-2010 Change in Child Population 2000-2010 Change in Child Population

by Race-Ethnicityby Race-Ethnicity

-6,000,000

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

White Black AmIndian

Asian 2+ Races Hispanic



Children : 2015-2040Children : 2015-2040

53 51 49 46 44 42

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

White Black Asian/ other Hispanic



Contributions to Labor Force Contributions to Labor Force Population Population 2010 -20402010 -2040

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2011-15 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40

Mill

ions

Hispanic Black Asian White



Contributions to Labor Contributions to Labor Force Force 2010-2020 (in millions)2010-2020 (in millions)

23.5

9.6

-5

-6-4-202468

1012

White Black Asian/ Other Hispanic



Labor Force Ages: 2015-Labor Force Ages: 2015-20402040

62 60 57 54 52 50

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

White Black Asian/ other Hispanic


NCES, US Dept of Education

HS Dropout Rates: Age 16-HS Dropout Rates: Age 16-2424

34.3

11.5 11.56.1

3.0

05

10152025303540

HispanicForeignBorn

HispanicNativeBorn

Blacks Whites Asians


15.5

35.9 35.3

45.7

64.6

010203040506070

HispanicForeignBorn

HispanicNativeBorn

Blacks Whites Asians

Pew Hispanic Center

College Enrollment Rate: College Enrollment Rate: Age 18-24Age 18-24


Education by Race-EthnicityEducation by Race-Ethnicity

52

22 18 10 14

10 17 1831

50

0%10%20%

30%40%50%60%70%

80%90%

100%

HispanicForeignBorn

HispanicNativeBorn

Black White Asian

Less then HS HS grad Some College College Grads

Pew Hispanic Center


25% and above

10.0% to 24.9%

5.0 to 9.9%

Under 5%

Hispanic Hispanic Concentrations 2010Concentrations 2010

Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

Percent of County Population


Black Concentrations Black Concentrations 20102010

Percent of County Population25% and above

10.0% to 24.9%

5.0% to 9.9%

Under 5% Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010



State Growth in Child Population, State Growth in Child Population, 2000-102000-10

Under age 18

Growth 5% and over

Growth under 5%

Decline under 5%

Decline 5% and over



Percent Minority Children, 2010

GT 50%

40% - 50%

25% - 40%

Under 25%


Percent Children with Immigrant Percent Children with Immigrant ParentsParents

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

CA NY NV AZ FL NJ TX US

Ist Gen 2nd Gen

51%

35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31%

23%


Children Speaking Other than Children Speaking Other than EnglishEnglish


GT 20%10% - 20%6% - 10%Under 6% * Ages 5 - 17


US Growth by Age 2000-10

211

3

-9

19

50

1812

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0- 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+



Median Ages for States, Median Ages for States, 20102010

40 and over

38 to 40

36 to 38

Below 36


Senior Population Shifts: 3 Senior Population Shifts: 3 DecadesDecades

((1000s)1000s)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Young Elderly Old Elderly

2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020- 2030

(65 - 74) (75 +)


140% & above100% -139%70% -99%under 69%

Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30



23.520.2

51.7 48.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Married Couples Married Couples withChildren

2000 2010

Share of all US Households Share of all US Households 2000 and 20102000 and 2010


6255 55

32

61

52 49

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Asians Whites Hispanics Blacks2000 2010


Married Couples as Share of All Married Couples as Share of All HouseholdsHouseholds



Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, 2010-302010-30

54 50 46

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2010 2020 2030

Children

80 76 71

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2010 2020 2030

Seniors

white

Black

Asian/Other

Hispanic



Cultural Generation GapsCultural Generation Gaps Difference in White Percent: Seniors Difference in White Percent: Seniors

minus Childrenminus Children

25 and above

20 to 25

15 to 20

Below 15


Useful WebsitesUseful Websites

www.CensusScope.org/2010www.CensusScope.org/2010 Census Census

www.frey-demographer.orgwww.frey-demographer.org

william h. frey the brookings institution america’s changing racial diversity from the bottom up

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