will there be enough water to grow enough food? …...investing in irrigation irrigated area food...
TRANSCRIPT
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Will there be enough water to grow enough food? Yes if…
Results of The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in AgricultureCo-Sponsors:
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Setting the Scene
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It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average
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Investing in Irrigation
Irrigated Area
Food price index
World Bank lending for irrigation
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
01960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species
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Source: FAO data, graphic from SEI
The 850 million undernourished.
Nutrition, food security, income
Vulnerable to loss of water
Employment
Lower Food Prices
Dependent on Water for Agriculture?
There are few options outside
of agriculture for most rural poor
at present
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Limits – reached or breached
• Closed basins – no water left for more development – Yellow River, Colorado, Amu/SyrDarya, Murray-Darling, Egypt’s Nile, Lerma-Chapala, Jordan, Gediz, Zayanda Rud, Indus, Cauvery, Krishna, Chao Phraya,….
• Groundwater overdraft –
• Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent
• Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production
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Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
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The CA framing question
How can water for food be developed and managed to…
• Help end poverty and hunger?• Ensure environmentally
sustainable water-agriculture practices?
• Find the balance between food and environmental security?
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An Assessment Process
• Deals with a complex societal issue• Critical evaluation of information• Engages stakeholders throughout process• Large and diverse team of experts – over
700 people from around the world• Includes external reviews
• Cosponsors:
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Chapter writing process
Coordinating Lead Author
(CLA)1-2
Lead Authors (LAs) 2-7 Contributing
Authors5-15
WRITING TEAM
CHAPTER NETWORK
CHAPTER TEAM
Network of Interested
People20-100
Reviewers7-20
2 reviews
Review Editors
Diversity: specialty, region, gender
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Book Outline
• Summary for Decision Makers• Section 1- intro
– Introduction– Conceptual Framework– Section 2 –– Impacts & Challenges– Scenarios
• Section 3 – Cross-cutting– Water Productivity– Ecosystems– Policies & Institutions– Poverty
• Section 4 - Sectoral– Rainfed– Irrigated– Groundwater– Low Quality Water– Fisheries– Livestock– Rice– Land– Basins
Summary available now: www.iwmi.org/assessment
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What of the future
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Consumption of Animal Products
Per capita demand (kg/cap/yr) of animal products
USA
projectionsdata
20031961 2050
China
India
140
120
Mea
t co
nsum
ptio
n kg
/cap
/yr
100
80
60
40
20World
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How much more cereals?
Food demand doubles over the next 50 because of diet and population
Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivty gains
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Crop water consumption to 2050
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
Today
Without productivity improvement
Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles
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% of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes
No water scarcityApproaching water scarcity
Water scarce
0% 60% 75% 100%
Water for food and feed today
Future water for food, CA scenario
Water for biofuels*
*Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030
Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI).
Green solution with blue impacts
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CA Policy Agenda
• 8 points
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A Range of Ag Water Management OptionsAgenda 1 – Change the way we think about water and food.
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Agenda 2 – water and poverty
#2. Get water to poor people, use it better
Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options
are limited.
1. Broad investments for economic growth –works through multipliers
2. Targeted investments – directly impacts poor
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Agenda 2 – water and poverty
Promising Pathways
Recognizing gender differentiated roles and impacts
• Ensure secure access (including water rights)• Targeted investments in pro-poor
technologies• Local management and informal irrigation• Multiple-use systems• Maintaining fisheries
Complementary public investment and actions are needed in the improvement of markets access and infrastructure
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Policy Agenda #3: Increase Water Productivity
• Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop– To reduce future water needs– For food production increases
• Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop– For more income, growth
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Agenda 3 – increase water productivity
Growth in yields
United States
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
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Policy Agenda 4: Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture
• Rainfed areas, especially in the semi-arid tropics, have the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.
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Agenda 4 – upgrade rainfed agriculture
Dependence on green and blue water 2000
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Agenda 4 – upgrade rainfed agriculture
The link between poverty, hunger and water scarcity
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Agenda 4 – upgrade rainfed agriculture
Key Actions to Upgrade Rainfed Systems
• Technology– water harvesting, – supplemental irrigation, – Field water conservation to reduce
evaporation. • Build human capacity -• Expand Policies to include upgrading
rainfed
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#5: Adapt yesterday’s irrigation to tomorrow’s needs.
The days of rapid expansion of irrigation are over.
But there are plenty of reasons to invest:
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#6: More ecosystem services from agriculture
Provisioning services - food and timber
Regulating services - flood control and storage, ground water recharge, water sharing
Cultural services – spiritual and cultural benefits; O&M as the glue of communities
Supporting services – biodiversity, nutrient cycling, that maintain the conditions for life on Earth
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Lowland rice landscape: very rich biodiversity
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Agenda 6 – more ecosystem services
Manage for Diversity
• Improve practices to enhance a range of ecosystem services beyond food and fiber
• Ensure the poor receive considerable benefits – payment for environmental services
• Manage for diversity, engineer for diversity (environmental flows)
• Informed negotiations
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Policy Agenda #7: Reform the policy reform process
• Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and environmental degradation continue
- not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings
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Agenda 7 – reform the reform process
Institutional reform
• Sectoral reforms needed – craft solutions suited to local needs – no blueprints
• Policies outside of water sector have huge influence on water resources –diets, trade, agricultural subsidies, energy
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Do the right things
Today
CA Scenario
Practices like today
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade
Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA
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Agenda 8. Make difficult choices now, not later:
Choices:• Water storage for agriculture – water for
environment• Upstream – downstream• Productivity - Equity• This generation – the next one (GW decline) • Our consumption patterns and their impact
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Thank You