Will future resourceWill future resource concerns cause significant

and unpredictable dislocations for Defence?dislocations for Defence?

RGS 10-11 May 2012

Resource Consumption (RC)Resource Consumption (RC)

S FOE 2009Source: FOE 2009

p1

Slide 2

p1 powelj, 08/05/2012

Resource Extraction

1980 - 2005 worldwide 2030 - Projected 1980 2005 worldwideextraction of resources> 50%

j> 100 billion tonnes

2005 48% f l b l> 50%(40 – 59 billon tonnes)

2005 - 48% of global resources were extractedfrom Asiafrom Asia.

S it i i i idlScarcity is increasing rapidly or more precisely, demand is p y,escalating rapidly

Rare Earth Elements (REE)( )

Source: Dudley Kingsnorth 2011

REE in Defence Guidance and Control Systems

Source: Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association 2010

REE in Defence Electronic Warfare

Source: Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association 2010

REE in Defence Targeting and Weapon Systems

Source: Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association 2010

REE in Defence Communication

Source: Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association 2010

REE in Defence Electric Motors

• Rare Earth Industry and Technology AssociationDefence in the west has been actively working

on making the military a faster, more efficienton making the military a faster, more efficient fighting force, using less fossil fuels and resources. In furthering this objective the useresources. In furthering this objective the use of REE is only likely to grow.

Source: Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association 2010

REE AvailabilityREE Availability

N d d l i h “Cl d S t ” i• Need to deal with a “Closed System” in contrast to an “Open System”y

• Size of reserves (China 37%, Soviet Bloc 18% US 12% others 33%)18%, US 12%, others 33%)

• Unpredictability of source countries• Export policies and tariffsREE are in increasingly short supply as world

demand surges with industry officials predictingdemand surges, with industry officials predicting a global shortfall of 30,000 to 50,000 metric tonnes by 2012tonnes by 2012

Rare Earth Elements (REE) Availability( ) yREE

1960s - 1980s US were the leaders inwere the leaders in global production of REEREE

REE - Availability

Restriction on REE exports by China

2010 – 30,258 tonnes 2011 – 30,184 tonnes

Number of mines for extraction of REE in Chinaextraction of REE in China has reduced from 400 –116 since 2009116 since 2009

Environmental Impactsp• Extraction and refining can cause significant

environmental risks to the natural environment.• When using traditional technology, refining

REE involves the use of toxic chemicals.• Refining 1tonne of rare earth oxide can

produce 63,000m3 of waste gas containing sulphuric acid and hydrofluoric

3acid, 200m3 of acid-containing sewage water and 1.4 tonnesof radioactive industrial waste.

Source: Chemical Geology 2012: Acid Sulphate drainage

REE Ocean sedimentsREE – Ocean sediments

Hot plumes from hydro thermal vents pulled REE out of seawater, depositing them on the, p gsea floor over tens of millions of years. 1m2 of mud 2 3km wide maymud 2.3km wide may contain enough REE78 sites throughout the Pacific Ocean have been

analysed (Hawaii and in the southeast Pacific)to meet globaldemand for a year

analysed (Hawaii and in the southeast Pacific)

yDeposits estimated

80 - 100 Billion Tonnes f REE

Source: Nature Geoscience July 2011of REE

Distribution of surface sediments (REE)

Ongoing research g g• The question of which materials are strategic and critical

to national security is still in the air. • There is a lack of knowledge of what quantities are

required for defence purposes (< 20%)required for defence purposes (< 20%). • Identifying steps that might be taken to increase the

security of supply with China’s continued dominance insecurity of supply with China s continued dominance in this area.

• Are there alternatives for REE (environmental impacts, i d ffi i )?economic and efficient)?

• What are the factors to consider when determining the extent to which import dependence for REE may pose aextent to which import dependence for REE may pose a threat to economic or national security?

SummarySummary

• Rare Earth dependent technologies are used in Defence every second 24/7

• As Defence becomes a leaner andAs Defence becomes a leaner and more agile fighting force the requirements for REE will only increaserequirements for REE will only increase

• Need to understand the physical basis of the global economic system

Thank you for Listening

Questions

Dr Julieanna Powell-Turner

j powell turner@cranfield ac ukj.powell-turner@cranfield.ac.ukjpowell-turner@da.mod.uk