why wimax
TRANSCRIPT
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Why WiMAX
Tom FlanaganDirector, Broadband Strategy
Broadband Communications GroupTexas Instruments
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Syllabus
• An introduction to Texas Instruments and our role in broadband?
• Historical perspective on market development
• Wireless technologies and the role of WiMAX
• What others are saying• Final Exam
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Summary
• Consumer markets increasingly drive technology evolution
• Mobile phones are the most significant consumer product– Mobile phone networks will have advantage in scale
• Of the various flavors of WiMAX, 802.16e has the best chance for success– Combines reasonable bandwidth with mobility– Needs acceptance in mobile phones to be successful
(4G?)
• Bandwidth is Key. Wired networks deliver fixed bandwidth best– WiMAX may serve niche applications in fixed broadband
but will not displace Cable, DSL and Fiber
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Who is TI?
• Most consumers and educators in particular know us for our calculators
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The Opportunity for TI
• Analog– Converting the
world we live in to digital information
• Digital Signal Processing– Analyze, compress,
enhance, transmit
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Roughly ½ of all mobile phones shipped are TI based8 of 10 3G designs use TI
And many more…
SX1
SPV
F2051
Tungsten TN2051
P2102V
P800
T191
3650
Zire 71
G8000
Wireless
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..and many more…
Broadband
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DSP Drives Broadband
• 1984 Dial modem• Hayes 212
– 1,200 Bits Per Second
– $1,200
• 1984 Leased Line Modem
• Racal 19.2– 19,200 Bits Per
Second– $20,000
Modems sell for $1,000 per kilobit
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DSP Drives Broadband
• 2004 - Broadband Cable Modem
• 3 Million Bits Per Second
• $3,000,000
Modem Cost Per Kilobit
$1,041.67
$0.02$-
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
$1,000.00
$1,200.00
1984 2004
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DSP Drives Broadband
• How is this possible?– Signal processing
innovation• Hardware and software
– Process technology development
– System on Chip Integration (SOC)
– Drives cost down– Expands the potential
market– Enables new markets:
• The Connected Home– And the innovations
continue…
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Enabled By SOC Integration
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Consumer Friendly Prices
• 1984 Modem• Hundreds of
suppliers– minimal software
• WLAN DSL Modem• 1 supplier
– hardware and software
• Broadband Modem• Router• WLAN
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Delivering
• The Connected Home
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Delivering
• The Impact of the Connected Home– Consumers and
their connectivity needs have matched the enterprise and telecommunications markets as a driving force in the development of networking equipment and networked products
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Available Today
• Retail outlets, consumer friendly prices
• Billions of connected devices
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Bob Metcalfe's Law
• Connect any number, "n" of machines and you get "n" squared potential value – The value of a
network grows exponentially as the number of connected devices increases
• True for Enterprises– Equally true for Connected Homes
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Ubiquitous Networking
• How we communicate will change radically when the network is all around us.– Consider how Voice has changed in the
past 15 years.
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The Old Paradigm
Physically Tethered - You went to the Network
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TI Vision: Ubiquitous VoIP
• More than a replacement for traditional telephony
• VoIP support will be incorporated into desktops, servers, gateways and consumer electronics operating systems
• Hardware cost per channel will drop to the point that basic VoIP capability can be incorporated into nearly any connected device
that has an IP connection
E v e r y w h e r e
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Integration
• The popularity of mobile phones has made them the integration platform of choice– Voice, Music, TV, Radio, Cameras,
Medical– Further cementing their role as the key
consumer electronics product
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According to Nokia650 million mobile phones will ship in 2004
And many more…
SX1
SPV
F2051
Tungsten TN2051
P2102V
P800
T191
3650
Zire 71
G8000
Wireless
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The Economist
• Mobile and landline telephony– Marriage or divorce?
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Bandwidth
• We can’t have enough bandwidth– It is like disk storage –
eventually we use it all• Broadband connectivity
will be an economic differentiator in the future– Are we on the wrong side
of the digital divide?– The US is currently 13th in
household connectivity– Asians lead in bandwidth
• 10Mbps very common in Japan and Korea
• 100Mbps is the fastest growing service in Japan
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Distance
WLAN802.11g
ZIGBEE802.15.4
BlueTooth802.15.1/1a
UWB802.15.3a
WLAN802.11b
2.5G 3G
10m
100m
2km
1Mb/s 50Mb/s BandwidthData/Voice
SDTV/HDTV
Music : high bit rate 256kb/s + Music <100kb/s
10km
20km+
100Mb/s
PAN
LAN
MAN
WAN
802.11a/HyperLan2
M WiMAX802.16e
4G
Bandwidth is based on Per-subscriber
MWBA802.20
FWBA802.16a
FWBA802.16
3.5G
5km
2008/92008/9
20062006 20102010
2006/72006/7
20052005
WLAN802.11n
20052005
BlueTooth2.0802.15.4a
20052005
20042004
20052005
Reach / Coverage
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Choices
• So what we need to consider is which technology or connectivity method is best for each portion of the network
• WiMAX may be a key technology for future networks but only a portion of the solution.– And as there are flavors of WiMAX the
application of the technology will further fragment
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Broadband Connectivity
• The key broadband technologies will be those that bring connectivity to consumers– Dual requirements
• Mobile• Fixed (at home)
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802.16a/d
Wireless Technologies
Bandwidth(Mb/s)
2G/2.5G
Distance
10m
100m
1Km
10Km
50Km
802.20
802.16e
10 100
802.16
10.1
3.5GWCDMA-HSDPA
3GIMT-2000
CDMA 1xEV-DOCDMA 1xEV-DV
W-CDMA
802.11
BlueTooth UWB
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Mobile Broadband
10 10010.1
Fixed(Stationary)
Pedestrian(Nomadic)
Mobile(Vehicular)
802.16e
802.20
2G/2.5G
3.5GWCDMA-HSDPA
3GIMT-2000
CDMA 1xEV-DOCDMA 1xEV-DV
W-CDMA
Mobility
Bandwidth(Mb/s)
802.11 UWBBlueTooth
DoCoMo will lead the HSDPA trial as early as next year
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Mobile Broadband
• 2.5 and 3G Wireless technologies will dominate the near term requirement for mobile broadband– Too late for WiMAX to have an impact
here• WiMAX (802.16e) has a chance of becoming
a key element of 4G wireless
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802.16a/d802.16a
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802.16a/d Fixed Broadband Market Opportunity
• 802.16d = Indoor• 802.11x competitor
• 802.16a = Line of sight
• Cellular Backhaul• Corporate last mile• Residential last mile
(green field primary)• DSL and Cable Modem
gap filler in cities and mostly rural areas
• Developing countries (Eastern Europe, Latin America, some tier 2 cities in China)
• Hot Spot Backhaul
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Unique Opportunity For Higher Education
• Use 802.16e to provide campus wide outdoor data access
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Fixed Broadband
• In the US the dominant technologies will remain Cable and DSL
• It looks like Fiber may become a reality
• FTTC (curb) FTTH (home) FTTP (premises)
Yesterday the FCC approved BPL and Deregulated Telco Fiber
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What Carriers Are Saying
• AT&T– May use WiMAX for local loop replacement
• Paid $9.5B last year for leased lines
• BT/France Telecom– Looking to use WiMAX for DSL gap filler in
UK and France for ubiquitous broadband coverage
• Covad– Exploring the possibility of conducting
WiMAX trials late this year as a way to bridge gaps in DSL coverage.
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The Analysts View
• Market research firm iSuppli on Monday described a largely lackluster outlook for WiMAX, which it said is surrounded by hype and will likely fail to catch on beyond niche applications. Established broadband access providers see no reason to adopt yet another technology for delivering data at high speeds, the company said.
• These applications will not be large enough to sustain the multitude of silicon suppliers and equipment manufacturers who have expressed interest in developing products for WiMAX," iSuppli said. "The hype surrounding WiMAX ... as a fixed wireless access technology will remain just that -- hype."
• A report from ABI Research on Monday said efforts to position WiMAX as a Wi-Fi killer -- Intel, for instance, plans to support WiMAX in its notebook computer chips in 2006 -- will fail.
• "WiMAX enthusiasts sometimes claim that it will 'kill' Wi-Fi. Nothing could be further than the truth," a note from ABI said. High power consumption makes WiMAX an unlikely choice for battery-powered devices like laptop computers and personal organizers.
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Questions?