why us chicken exports could reach 10 billion pounds by 2022 and be worth $7 billion ncc marketing...
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Why US Chicken Exports Could reach 10 Billion Pounds by 2022
and be worth $7 Billion
NCC Marketing Committee Meeting - Vermont - 2012
Paul Aho Ph.D. - Poultry Perspective
[email protected], Connecticut USA
22
Per Capita Consumption of Meat & EggsPer Capita Consumption of Meat & Eggs
7,000,000,000 people in 2012 7,000,000,000 people in 201244 Kg per capita44 Kg per capita
8,000,000,000 people in 2022 8,000,000,000 people in 202246 Kg per capita46 Kg per capita
33
Meat and Poultry Per Capita Meat and Poultry Per Capita Consumption Increase for Every % Consumption Increase for Every % Increase in Per Capita Real IncomeIncrease in Per Capita Real Income
1990’s - 2% 1990’s - 2% 2000’s - 1%2000’s - 1%
2010’s - 0.5% 2010’s - 0.5%
Stagnant Consumption in Stagnant Consumption in Developed Countries & Headwinds Developed Countries & Headwinds
of Higher Grain Prices of Higher Grain Prices
Comparing Beef, Pork, Chicken Comparing Beef, Pork, Chicken Feed Conversion + GrowthFeed Conversion + Growth
Beef - 6 -1 Consumption will lag Beef - 6 -1 Consumption will lag
income and population growthincome and population growth
Pork - 3 -1 Consumption will lag Pork - 3 -1 Consumption will lag income and population growthincome and population growth
Chicken - 1.7 -1 Consumption will Chicken - 1.7 -1 Consumption will exceed income and population growthexceed income and population growth
55
2012- 2022 2012- 2022 GrowthGrowth
Total Meat and Eggs = 60 MMT Total Meat and Eggs = 60 MMT
Chicken = 30 MMTChicken = 30 MMT
46 Kg Consumption 46 Kg Consumption Per Capita in 2022 Per Capita in 2022
6
8
10
12
14
16
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Pork
Chicken
Eggs
Beef
Source: USDA to 2012
Ethanol Minus By-Product Percentage of the Ethanol Minus By-Product Percentage of the US Corn Crop US Corn Crop
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average Price of Corn in Chicago - Average Price of Corn in Chicago - $/Bushel by Crop Year $/Bushel by Crop Year
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
99
Feed Cost Cents per Live PoundFeed Cost Cents per Live Pound
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2006 2009 2012
Beef
Pork
Chicken
1111
World Map Adjusted For Meat Consumption -2011
1 Billion More People on the Planet1 Billion More People on the Planet
in the next 10 years in the next 10 years
Meat Consumption Per Capita Meat Consumption Per Capita
will grow mostly in the will grow mostly in the
Developing WorldDeveloping World
Middle IncomeMiddle Income
China, India, Middle China, India, Middle East, Latin America, East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, parts Eastern Europe, parts of Africa of Africa
Income ElasticIncome Elastic
Only area of GrowthOnly area of Growth
75% of Global Growth will 75% of Global Growth will Come From Asia, Latin Come From Asia, Latin
America and AfricaAmerica and Africa
40% of Global Production 40% of Global Production Growth will Come in AsiaGrowth will Come in Asia
China the largestChina the largest As much more poultry as pork As much more poultry as pork Middle Class is growing Middle Class is growing
Asia Chicken Production Asia Chicken Production 2012 & 2022 - Millions of Tons 2012 & 2022 - Millions of Tons
2012 2022 Increase
Asia Total 24 38 12
China 12 17 5
World 82 112 30
Asia % of World
30% 34% 40%
2012 -2022 2012 -2022 Latin AmericaLatin America
Accelerating economic growthAccelerating economic growth Political stability Political stability The Golden age for PoultryThe Golden age for Poultry Financial stability Financial stability
Latin America Chicken Production Latin America Chicken Production 2010 & 2025 - Millions of Tons 2010 & 2025 - Millions of Tons
2012 2022 Increase
L.A. Total 22 30 8
Brazil 12 16 4
World 82 112 30
L.A. % of World
27% 27% 25%
Africa May Be a SurpriseAfrica May Be a Surprise
Increased Grain ProductionIncreased Grain Production Accelerating Economic GrowthAccelerating Economic Growth Accelerating Meat Production Accelerating Meat Production
Africa Chicken Production Africa Chicken Production 2012 & 2022 - Millions of Tons 2012 & 2022 - Millions of Tons
2012 2022 Increase
Africa Total 4 7 3
South Africa
1 2 1
World 82 112 30
Africa % of World
5% 6% 10%
World Trade in Chicken - MMT
02468
101214
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Exports - MMT Exports - MMT 2012 & 2022 2012 & 2022
2012 2022
United States 3.2 4.5
Brazil 3.3 4.5
World 9.6 14.0
Trade % of Total World Production
12% 13%
Brazil 40 in 2002
90 in 2011
USA 70 in 2002
100 in 2011
Thailand
100 in 2002
110 in 2011
Live Production Cost in Cents per kilo The Three Major Exporters
Higher Leg Quarter Prices Higher Leg Quarter Prices
Recession Helped increase domestic Recession Helped increase domestic demand demand
High Price of competing meatsHigh Price of competing meats Low price of the DollarLow price of the Dollar
Leg Quarter Price Leg Quarter Price Cents Per PoundCents Per Pound
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Exporting More Deboned Exporting More Deboned Breast From the US? Breast From the US?
Prices now more competitivePrices now more competitive Packaging and Marketing needed Packaging and Marketing needed Higher leg quarter prices make it possibleHigher leg quarter prices make it possible Brazil is less competitive than beforeBrazil is less competitive than before
Deboned Breast - Cents/lbDeboned Breast - Cents/lb2010 Dollars – US Wholesale Price 2010 Dollars – US Wholesale Price
100
200
300
400
500
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Why Exports Could Reach 10 Billion Pounds & $7 Billion
Why Exports Could Reach 10 Billion Pounds & $7 Billion
Competitiveness of ChickenCompetitiveness of Chicken Growth of the Middle ClassGrowth of the Middle Class Leg quarters still a bargain even at 70 centsLeg quarters still a bargain even at 70 cents