Why the debate on small-scale farming and youth matters today?

Hivos-IIED seminarRural Youth today, Farmers tomorrow

Felicity Proctor24 May 2012

Any debate on youth (rural and urban) and their future in farming must be set within the framework of demographic change in a given region/country, the prevailing agrarian structure, the nature of rural transformation including economic diversification and the pace of urbanisation

Rural youth may aspire to a future outside of agriculture but does the reality look different?

Can small-scale agriculture be a viable and attractive employment and livelihood option today and inter-generationally in particular in countries with high youth populations?

Let us look at some of the figures

By 2050 the world’s population will be some 9.3b rising from 6.9b today – with differing regional trends The global demand for food is set to increase by some 70%

Source: Based on United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

1960 1990 2010 2050 21000

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

Eastern Asia

South-Central Asia

South-Eastern Asia and Oceania

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Europe and Northern America

Population in millions

The world is urbanising and the proportion of people living in rural areas will decline. But the total rural population will continue to grow to 2020. In South-Central Asia and SSA the rural population will continue to grow up to 2025 and 2040s respectively

Source: Based on United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

681,592

910,062

1,307,726

196,046

348,130

131,267

13,101

Eastern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa South-Central Asia

Middle East and North Africa South-Eastern Asia Latin America and the Caribbean

Oceania

Projections

in millions

Today the youth population (15-24 years) makes up one fifth of the total population – is the largest ever seen and will continue to grow in South-Central Asia and SSA. Eastern Asia is now beginning to see a steady decline

Source: Based on United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 21000

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Eastern Asia Middle East and North Africa South-Central Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean South-Eastern Asia and Oceania Europe and Northern America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Projections in millions

Rural youth estimates indicate a decline in most regions – rapid and unprecedented in Eastern Asia although numbers will remain high in South-Central Asia and will continue to rise in SSA well into 2030s

Source: Based on Van der Geest, 2010 (elaboration from United Nation, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision)

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

190

136

230

35

62

26

Eastern Asia Sub-Saharan Africa South-Central Asia

Middle East and North Africa South-Eastern Asia Latin America and the Caribbean

ProjectionsIn millions

In summary • Significant regional and indeed country differences in rural population

dynamics and youth trends. This requires different policies and approaches to youth employment including small-scale agriculture

South Asia and in particular in SSA• Yearly cohorts of rural youth entering the labour market now and in the

future are unprecedented • Securing a decent livelihood and employment for youth (rural and

urban) must be central to the national and international agendas in all regions but is a particular a challenge for South Asia and SSA

East Asia• The increasing dependency ratio (age-population ratio of those

primarily ‘not in’ and those ‘in’ the labour force) and the decline in rural youth population is unprecedented

Youth unemployment and under-employment

• Employment figures are unhelpful in understanding the nature of utilisation of human capital – in particular under-utilisation. They do act as a barometer – youth unemployment globally is approximately three times

that of the adult population with significant regional variation (ILO, 2010)

• Employment data is undifferentiated urban-rural– it is evident that rural youth face greater barriers to access

employment including education than urban youth (Based on LMLS)

• Rural youth tend to be ‘employed’ in more vulnerable occupations often agricultural and unpaid family work– Young rural women face additional barriers and may be

limited to domestic/home working

An inability to find work, under-employment or work of drudgery which is not seen as valued by society and by youth peer groups – creates a sense of worthlessness among young people with all the potential negative consequences to the young people themselves and to society at large (ILO, 2010)

So where does agriculture fit within the picture?Agriculture presently represents 40% of the employment share in many regions of the developing and emerging economy worlds

Employment shares in the agriculture sector in key regions (2009)Source: ILO, 2011b and authors’ calculations

Developed Economies and EU

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

Eastern Asia

South-Eastern Asia and the Pacific

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Employment in agriculture sector

Employment in non-agriculture sector

And in absolute numbers - it is anticipated that agriculture will continue to be a major source of employment and will increase in some regions

Source: Based on FAO (FAOSTAT)

1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Eastern Asia

South-Central Asia

South-Eastern Asia and Oceania

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America and the Caribbean

Europe and Northern America

In millions

Even in countries in SE Asia with strong economic sectoral transformation – youth employment in agriculture remains high

15-19 20-24 25-29 30+20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

IND (1993/94)IND (2004/05)INO (1994)INO (2006)PHI (1991)PHI (2006)THA (1995)THA (2005)

%

Youth employment in agriculture by age group in selected countries in South-Eastern Asia (ADB 2008)

But what is the reality of that agricultural employment and livelihood opportunity

Whilst there is much debate over definitions of small-scale farming - the sheer numbers and scale of operation matter. China and India account for some 193m and 118m farms below 10 ha, respectively. Thus it may be estimated that there are well over 500 million small-scale farmers in developing and emerging economies

Size (ha) Number of holdings (,000)

%

< 2 189,394 97.9

2 - 10 3,666 0.9

> 10 386 0.2

Total holdings 193 446 000

Total Agr Area (ha) 130 039 200 Average Agr Area (ha) per holding 0.7

China (1997)

Size (ha) Number of holdings (,000)

%

< 2 98,077 81.8

2 - 10 20,587 17.2

> 10 1,230 1.0

Total holdings 119 894 000

Total Agr Area (ha) 159 394 000 Average Agr Area (ha) per holding 1.3

India (2000)

Source: FAO 2000 World Census of Agriculture

The reality of scale amongst small-scale farmers should be of concern. In selected countries in SSA the top quarter of farmers access two or more hectares, often 50% or more have less than one hectare, and the bottom quarter access half a hectare or less. Benefits from market (livelihood) opportunities accrue to a minority of small-scale farmers

Rwanda(2001)

Ethiopia(1996)

Mozambique(2002)

Kenya (2003/04)

Zambia(2000)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1st Quartile 2nd Quartile

3rd Quartile 4th Quartile

Mean

Ha

Average land sizes of farmers by quartiles, in Eastern and Southern Africa (Jayne 2010)

This raises the question as to the absorptive capacity of the small farm sector to offer a decent livelihood to the burgeoning youth populations - in particular in SSA and South Asia

For many millions of rural youth there is no other alternative than a livelihood in

agriculture

So what do we know about the next generation?

• Rural youth and agricultural youth are not the same • Young people in rural areas are not necessarily involved in

agriculture - varies by region – caution not to generalise – Note e.g. massive rural labour outmigration in China

• Youth living in urban localities can also be involved in agricultural activities

• Young rural women face higher/ different barriers to decent work than young rural men

• Large number of youth (SSA and South Asia in particular) remain trapped in poverty and low-productivity employment/ underemployment, typically with low levels of education and working in subsistence agriculture making the situation for young rural people particularly precarious

What our key informants told us

‘To marry a farmer is something families prefer their daughters not to do’‘If all else fails then go into farming’ – ‘a sign of failure’‘Need to change the mind set of society and policy makers [in favour of farming and agriculture]’‘Education and the media must play a role in improving the image of agriculture’‘Youth will (and do) go into agriculture when it offers real business opportunity…young entrepreneurs are emerging’‘If youth turn away from agriculture – who will farm?’‘There are specific challenges facing rural youth wishing to enter farming – these must be addressed’

A policy framework to support youth in agriculture• Small-scale farming and youth within the framework of wider economic

transformationo For SSA and parts of South Asia development models cannot assume a standard industrial

transformation. These regions may require a transformation model in which small-scale agriculture plays a central role inter-generationally

o Employment /labour market policy must embrace agriculture

• Call for a new debate on the future of small-scale farming, youth and agriculture o A longer term vision is required which includes alterative farming scenarios – owned by the

rural and national populations o Set against an agreed vision - action is needed to remove barriers to accompany agricultural

and small-farm transformation e.g. land reform, farming as a business, market access, etco Recognise the heterogeneous nature of small-scale agriculture and that there are winners

and losers in agricultural transformation

• Maintain political commitment and adequate funding for rural transformation and agricultureo Support to rural development and transformation more widely and then the agriculture

sector e.g. SSA CAADP+ , outcome of G8 and G20 etc

• Put rural youth high on the policy agenda and invest in rural youtho Much rhetoric but little real action - build on initiatives e.g. ILO Youth Employment Network

A policy framework to support youth in agriculture

• The agriculture inputs and agrifood supply chains - led mainly by private sector - offer new and expanding opportunities for youth employment /job creationo Changes in agrifood markets offer new and expanding employment opportunities –

understand and support theseo Support relevant skills and vocation training

• Reinforce and foster the private sector as champions for small-scale agriculture and youth in agricultureo New business models to secure small-scale farming and a decent livelihoodo Entrepreneurship training and apprenticeship - specific youth focus

• Address the multiple constraints faced by youth/build on their energy and human capitalo Land (including land transfer), credit, technology, market access, etc o Strengthen youth based institutions o Optimise on new technology (ICTs)

• Generate evidence and monitor change over time to inform policy

Thank you

Proctor, F. J. and V. Lucchesi (2012) Small-scale farming and youth in an era of rapid rural change. IIED/HIVOS, London/The Hague.