why oh y ? hs2 -- grand projet , great delusion or national network ?
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Why Oh Y ? HS2 -- grand projet , great delusion or national network ?. Jonathan Tyler Passenger Transport Networks, YORK Cambridge University Railway Club 17 February 2012. How have we got here ?. growth in rail traffic -- distinct change in trends, with multiple causation - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Why Oh Y ?HS2 -- grand projet, great
delusion or national network ?Jonathan Tyler
Passenger Transport Networks, YORKCambridge University Railway Club
17 February 2012
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How have we got here ?• growth in rail traffic
-- distinct change in trends, with multiple causation-- corporate assumptions of trends continuing-- limited interest in alternative scenarios-- ‘green’ message imperfectly understoodhence momentum for increased capacity
• politics-- Conservative commitment lieu Heathrow runway-- enthusiasm of Labour Transport Secretary-- longstanding LibDem support for public transport
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how have we got here ? continued• engineering opportunity seized by
-- people frustrated by more modest projects-- the construction industry
• economic opportunity seized by-- believers in infrastructure as economic driver-- northern cities desperate for regeneration
• other factors-- keeping up with other countries-- railway enthusiasts dreaming of an HSR in Britain-- a polarised debate [more later]
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My position• long career dedicated to quality passenger
services(first to quantify link between speed and demand)-- therefore a surprising sceptic about HSR
• reasons:-- this University taught me objective appraisal-- doubts grew as I studied documents, specifically
- the ‘network’ concept- the technical optimism- the environmental arguments- the mega-project phenomenon
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A flawed process• Government need for grand projet• HS2 Ltd too close to Department for Transport• HS2 did not emerge from a national strategy• planning presupposed standards + geography• concern for property rights > secrecy• consultation confused strategy, route-planning
and local considerations – largely ignored anyway
• polarisation : ‘true believers’ versus ‘nimbys’• little independent debate:
silence of the industry / treason of the consultants
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So, what are the issues ?• need for a national network strategy• demand forecasts• scale, timescale, costs, economic benefits• routes (Chilterns, M corridors, Heathrow, HS1)• technical specification and operating capacity
• location-specific environmental issues not addressed (ecological, socio-cultural, personal loss only legitimate if overwhelming justification for a project : establish that first without compromised assessment procedure)
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A national network strategy• what is railway for ?
-- context : continuous growth … ecological limits -- public service or travel supermarket **-- marginal social cost pricing (all modes), or subsidy-- mode of first choice for all appropriate journeys ?
• principles :-- national standards of service, eg. frequency, speed-- comprehensive connectivity (including other modes)-- fares system matched to objectives (not so now !)
• nb. responsibility for delivery is secondary matter
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“Whatever your destination this autumn, you can bag a bargain, giving you more money to spend on nights out or your Christmas shopping. But hurry, this offer ends on Sunday and the numbers of tickets are limited, …”
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a national network strategy continued• huge improvements but still uneven quality• no systematic plan to address weaknesses
-- eg. London / non-London variation, mixed-purpose services, missing links, ends of suburban lines, historic anomalies, off-rail places-- not helped by poor data
• model demand with various scenarios, mode splits
• then envision an ideal network (compare Swiss)• possible outcomes : a case for extensive HSR /
limited HSR / new non-HSR sections / projects directed at specific timetable improvements
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modal-splittargets
national standards of service-qualityand connectivity
modellingroute-specific
demand
organisations,budgets
timetabling,operationsplanning
infrastructureplan
toward an excellent system of public transport
data,scenarios
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Demand forecasts• questionable presumption of continuing growth• changes in composition of traffic, public
expectations• surprising acceptance of ‘predict and provide’• no analysis of potential gains elsewhere on network
(lower mode-shares > greater social benefit ?)• reluctance to question value by journey-purpose• myth of business people doing vital deals• doubts about Virgin’s business model• crowding distorted by fares policy• should we be encouraging long-distance commuting
?
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Scale, timescale, costs, benefits• bold vision – or hubris ?• Birmingham … London not until 2026, full ‘Y’ not
until 2032 : a long time to wait in an uncertain world• risk of cost-escalation or changed circumstances
leaving unfinished project, lost opportunities• high cost of British civil engineering compounded by
large projects (Euston), tunnelling• economic benefits subject of fierce debate (weak
evidence on regional regeneration, absence of strong regional government, arcane value-of-time figures)
• may widen, not narrow, North / South division• as planned will favour select cities, not whole
regions
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The routeing arguments• HS2 ‘perfect railway’ : straight, 400 km/h, few
stops• the ‘Y’ is London-centric, serves few cities• not a network, places omitted (Stoke, Coventry)• ambiguity on city-centre or ‘parkway’ stations • Chiltern route (note pull of Heathrow) most
environmentally and politically damaging• routes along Motorway corridors : less
damaging –and would the engineering be that difficult ?
• muddled thinking about Heathrow• even more muddled thinking about HS1 link
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Specification + operating capacity• maximum speed driven by technical ambition
-- undervalues energy and carbon costs-- prejudices route choices-- marginalises all but largest cities
• assumption of European gauge-- required by EU law (challengeable ?), BUT-- adds engineering cost-- predicates 2 train-types (‘captive’, ‘classic compatible’)-- complicates station design-- may introduce operational inflexibility
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specification + operating capacity continued• HS2 Ltd believes 18 trains / hour feasible, based on
advanced control technology (= >20, with margin)• compare with present maximum anywhere of 15• 18 t/h an act of faith too far ?
-- effect of intermediate stops, diverge/merge moves-- inevitable perturbations, esp. from classic lines-- matters because expectations exceed even 18
• poor integration with existing network• system designed for 400 m trains, but ‘classic
compatibles’ limited to 200 m – unless portion-working introduced (could help capacity)
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The convergence problem
Train-paths through a converging junction
048
1216202428
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
seconds from station
km fr
om st
atio
n
train 1train 2train 3
Trains 1 and 3 non-stop, train 2 starts on ‘slow’ line and converges at c. 2.5 km from station.
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The timetable plan for a £32billion project
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Frequency of HS2 services under various scenarios [trains / hour] scenarios routes Fig
ure 7
in U
pdate
d Ec
onom
ic Ap
prais
al of
the Y
Netw
ork
aspira
tions
and
ideal
frequ
encie
s
no H
eath
row
or H
S1 se
rvice
s
with
porti
on
work
ing
rest of Britain <> LONDON Edinburgh 1 1 Glasgow
2 1 1
1
Newcastle ... York 2 1 - 2 - - Leeds 2 1 Sheffield 2 2 Nottingham
3 2 1
2
Manchester 3 3 - 4 3 Liverpool 2 2 2 other North West - 1 - 2 1
3
Birmingham 3 4 4 4 spare - - - 2 rest of Britain <> HEATHROW Manchester 1 1 - other North West 1 -
1
Leeds … East Midlands 1 1 - Birmingham 1 -
1
rest of Britain <> HS1 Scotland 0.5 - - Newcastle … Leeds 0.5 - - Manchester 1 - other North West 0.5 -
1
East Midlands 0.5 - Birmingham 1 -
1
TOTAL 17 27 – 30 16 16
The implications of constrained capacityColumn 1 : HS2 latest plans * HS1 services omitted* Birmingham reduced to 3* commitment to North EastCol. 2 : aspirationsCol. 3 : what could be offered without the Heathrow and HS1 linksCol. 4 : the potential benefits of portion-working (actual frequencies = 2 x trains)NB. ‘open access’ ignored !
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What are the alternative strategies ?• a flexible, incremental approach• for example, for the West Coast Main Line :
-- Pendolino lengthening, more Standard seats-- better operating discipline in peaks-- reform of ticket-pricing policy-- selective infrastructure schemes
• but do in context of a national public transport plan
• new alignments may be justified (not necessarily in WCML corridor) but make socio-economic case first and weigh environmental factors honestly
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What now ?• Government has decided to build• despite the spin the project is not certain• complex Hybrid Bill procedure• opponents will fight bloody battle through
Judicial Review and then Parliament• will distract the rail industry’s attention• dangers of mega-projects with own momentum• compare APT and HST• case for a pause, a national debate, a fresh
start ?• I would rather that than a negative ‘stop’
campaign