why (not) to fear the impending robot revolution

Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -

Why (Not) to Fear the ImpendingRobot RevolutionNick Morozovsky, PhDCo-Founder, Accel Robotics

@DrNickMoFebruary 7, 2017

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Outline

• History

• State of the Art

• Future

• Conclusions

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History

• Rossum’s Universal Robots - 1921

• “Robot” from Czech rabota, meaning “forced labor”

3https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.U.R.


History

• Science fiction and pop culture have rapidly outpaced actual development

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History

• Meanwhile, back at the lab…

• Repetitive work in a static environment

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Leg Lab


State of the Art Challenges in Robotics

MobilityPerception

Manipulation

“Go get me a beer from the fridge”

Stairs

Doors

Sand, eggs, clothes

Unstructuredterrain

Where tograsp object

LocalizationMapping

Identification

6Deep Learning


State of the Art Deformable Objects are Hard (…Soft)

Abbeel Lab, UC Berkeley, 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKUaVzf3Oqw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKUaVzf3Oqw


State of the Art Walking is Hard

IEEE Spectrum 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0TaYhjpOfo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0TaYhjpOfo


State of the Art Robotics Landscape

Cost ($)

Func

tiona

lity

Toys

Service

102 106103 104

Cleaners

101

MedicalManufacturing

Military

Consumer Commercial Industrial

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105


State of the Art Drones

• Who wouldn’t want a drone always following you around?

Chris Anderson, 2015

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Zano

Airdog

Lily

Robot Dragonfly


State of the Art Crowdfunded Social Robots

• Caveat emptor

• Pet peeve: fake robot videos

AidoBuddyAlpha2 Jibo



Alpha2

2015 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/alpha-2-the-first-humanoid-robot-for-the-family-social#/

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/alpha-2-the-first-humanoid-robot-for-the-family-social#/



Buddy

2015 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/buddy-your-family-s-companion-robot-family-social#/

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/buddy-your-family-s-companion-robot-family-social#/



Aido

2016 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/aido-next-gen-home-robot--2#/

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/aido-next-gen-home-robot--2#/



Jibo

2014 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/jibo-the-world-s-first-social-robot-for-the-home#/

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/jibo-the-world-s-first-social-robot-for-the-home#/



Jibo

2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKhVCRbRUS0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKhVCRbRUS0


State of the Art Consumer Robots are Shit

• Insane cost sensitivity

• Slow manufacturing cycles

• Obsolete before it hits store shelves

• Incredibly limited functionality vs. incredibly high expectations

• No killer app


State of the Art Commercial Robots – Robot-as-a-Service

• Robots providing consumer-facing services in commercial spaces

• Store greeter

• Telepresence

• Product finder

• Security patrol

• Room service deliveryPepper

SoftBank RoboticsBeam

Suitable Technologiesnavii

Fellow RobotsK5

KnightscopeRelay

Savioke


FutureSelf-Driving Cars

• Tens of thousands of lives saved

• Millions of jobs lost

• Significant contraction in automotive and related markets (dealers, service, road construction, parking, insurance, etc.)

• Energy, time, and space savings

• Good-bye traffic and parking

• No organ donors (just 3D print them!)19


FutureCareer Advice (for Humans)

• Avoid repetitive work

• Composing pop music, writing sitcoms, diagnosing patients, legal discovery

• Oldest profession

• Work with robots/AI, not against

• Stick to high-mix physical labor

• Luxury, artisanal goods

• Deformable objects (clothes, cheese making)

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schoolhouseartisancheese.com


Conclusions

• Rossum’s Universal Robots ends in a robot revolution which kills all humans (save one)

• Life doesn’t have to imitate art

• What happens when robots and AI can perform any task better, safer, and cheaper than a human?

• Humans have survived (and prospered?) through the agricultural, industrial, and communications revolutions

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Conclusions Nick’s Rules of Robotics

1. Never disassemble a working robot.

2. If it works the first time, you’re testing it wrong.

3. When in doubt, lubricate.

4. Never underestimate the estimation problem.

5. If specs for a part are listed differently in two places, they’re both wrong.

6. Glue, tape, and zip-ties are not engineering solutions (though they might work in a pinch).

7. Do not leave lithium polymer batteries charging unattended.

8. Always have a complete CAD model, including screws and fasteners, before constructing your robot.

9. Avoid using slip rings if at all possible.

10.Clamping collars are always better than set screws. If you have to use set screws (e.g. for cost reasons), use a driving flat and an appropriate thread-locking agent.

11.Always check polarity before plugging a component into a power source.

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