whose money is it anyway? winning in personal finance 1 2 3
TRANSCRIPT
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Whose Money is It Anyway?
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Winning in personal finance
123
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Personal Finance Approaches• Tax-savings first
• Product-first
• Returns-first
• Needs first • Products-last• Tax-planning incidental
Goal-based investing
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What is goal-based investing?
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Permanent loss in capital
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Permanent loss in capital
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We cannot expect more because we cannot invest enough!
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With 8% inflation
• 12% return 5000 monthly investment
• 6% return ~10,000 monthly investment
• What if I invest 10,000 pm in an instrument that offers a real chance to beat inflation?
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Returns do not matter!yearscorpus inv(1 return)
yearsinvcorpus (1 )return
returncorpus (1 )inv years
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Your RetirementOther long-term goals
Accident insurance
Term Lifeinsurance
Emergencyinsurance
Health insurance
Inflation insurance
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Cash Flow Analysis: Creating a Zero-based budget
• Zero-based budget: “One in which every dollar is assigned a role” – Dave Ramsey
• No money left at the end of the month!
• Live ‘hand to mouth’ because of investing!
• No lump sums allowed!
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Zero-based budget
• Step 1: List all sources of income
• Step 2: List all monthly expenses
• Step 3: List all annual/recurring expenses
• Step 4: List present and future liabilities
• Step 5: List present investments (incl EPF)
• Step 6: Determine amount available for investment (incl EPF)
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Power of non-compounding
Power of compounding does not matter for ~ 5Y or less
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Inflation in India: Some Real Numbers
Jan 1995 to May 2014
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Why not have some equity exposure?
Is not 5/7 years long-term?!
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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
10% 9% 8% 7% 6%
5
Investment = 100
After 5 years:
?
100× 1+10% 1+ 9% × 1+ 8% 1+7% 1+6%
100× 1+
5
After 5 years:
100× 1+10% 1+10% × 1+10% 1+10% 1+10%
100× 1+10%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
5
Investment = 100
After 5 years:
100× 1+10% 1+ 9% × 1+ 8% 1+7% 1+6%
100× 1+CAGR
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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 year 5 CAGR10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10.00%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 year 5 CAGR25% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10.05%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 year 5 CAGR-25% 21% 9.96%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 year 5 CAGR-25% 7% 7% 7% 7% -0.34%
Illustration: Volatile Compounding
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 year 5 CAGR25% -25% 7% 7% 7% 2.81%
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Liquid Mutual Funds
• Savings bank account linked to bond market
• Invests in short-term bonds (4- 91 days)
• Sensitivity to interest rate change: low
• Risk of default: low
• Least volatile among volatile asset classes
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xxxx Liquid Fund
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Average
Arithmetic average ~ 7%Standard deviation ~ 2%CAGR ~ 7% (12 year)Difference ~ 0.02%
xxxx Liquid Fund
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
7.1 4.96 4.36 5.3 6.5 8.12 8.9 5.29 5.15 8.8 9.56 9.28
5.644
5.848
6.636
6.822
6.792
7.252
7.54
7.616
Discrete Rolling Return
Understand risks before investing
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Continuous Rolling Return- 2Y
2048 Two year intervals betApril 3rd 2006 to Dec 4th 2014
April 3rd 2006 to April 2nd 2008April 4th 2006 to April 3rd 2008April 5th 2006 to April 4th 2008
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Continuous Rolling Return- 2Y
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Debt oriented balanced funds(<20% equity)
AMC suggests investment horizon 1-3 years
vs.
Equity oriented balanced funds(> 65% equity)
AMC suggests investment horizon 3-5 years
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1 year rolling returns
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3 year rolling returns
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5 year rolling returns
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7 year rolling returns
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10 year rolling returns
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Asset Allocation
Time Frame Conservative Moderate Risky Mad-Max
< 5 Years FD/RD ~ 10% Eq 30-40% Eq > 60% Eq
7 Years FD/RD 10-20% Eq 40-50% Eq >60% Eq
10 years FD/RD 40% Eq >60% Eq 100% Eq
Time Frame Conservative Moderate Risky Mad-Max
< 5 Years FD/RD/Debt ~ 10% Eq 30-40% Eq > 60% Eq
7 Years FD/RD/Debt 10-20% Eq 40-50% Eq >60% Eq
10 years FD/RD/Debt 30-40% Eq >60% Eq 100% Eq
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Understanding the nature of stock market returns
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Sensex Total Returns Index: 1979 to 2013
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Sensex Total Returns Index: 1979 to 2013
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Sensex Total Returns Index: 1979 to 2013
5%
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S&P 500 Total Returns Index: 1871 to 2013
Source: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm
12%
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Sensex Total Returns Index: 1979 to 2013
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Higher risk does not imply higher return!
Return
RiskStandard Deviation
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Higher risk does not imply higher return!
Return
RiskStandard Deviation
FD
Debt mf Equity mf
Gold
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How Important is
Mutual Fund Selection?
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Large Cap Funds
Computed with SIP calculator, thefundoo.com
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Large Cap & Large/Mid-Cap Funds
Computed with SIP calculator, thefundoo.com
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Large Cap, Large/Mid-Cap & Mid/Small-Cap Funds
Computed with SIP calculator, thefundoo.com
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Lump sum returns
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Essentials of a good portfolio
• Minimalist : We must be able to justify the presence of each asset class or instrument.
• Minimum number of asset classes
• Minimum number of stocks, equity funds or debt products
• This will typically make the folio diversified among and within asset classes
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Simple portfolio ideas
Equity (60%) 10% return
1. Single Large Cap fund or
2. One large cap +one mid/small cap fund or
3. Single Large and mid-cap fund or
4. Single equity oriented balanced fund
Debt (40%) 8% return (pre-tax)PPF for 15+ Y goals for options 1,2 & 3 (do not max!)
Short-term debt funds for less than 15Y goals orBanking debt mutual funds
Long-term goals (10+ years)
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Simple portfolio ideas
Equity (0-40%) 8% return
1. Single Large Cap fund or
2. One large cap +one mid/small cap fund or
3. Single Large and mid-cap fund or
4. Single equity oriented balanced fund or
5. Single debt oriented balanced fund
Debt (100-60%) 8% return (pre-tax)Short-term debt funds for less than 15Y goals orBanking debt mutual funds
Medium-term goals (5-10 years)
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Simple portfolio ideas
Equity (0-10%) expect nothing!
1. Single Large Cap fund or
2. One large cap +one mid/small cap fund or
3. Single Large and mid-cap fund or
4. Single oriented debt balanced fund (5Y)
Debt (100-90%) 6-7% return (pre-tax)FDs, RDs orShort-term debt funds for less than 15Y goals orBanking debt mutual funds
Short-term goals (0-5 years)
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Return expectation
• Equity allocation60%
• Debt allocation 40%
• Equity expectation 10% (after tax)
• Debt expectation 6-7% (after tax)
• Portfolio expectation
10%(60%) + 7%(40%) = 8.8% (approx.)
Investments are assumed to start simultaneously
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Years to goalPresent costInflation Post-tax rate of return of portfolio 8.8.00%
Future CostAmt invested so farPost-tax rate of return on current investment
Future value of curr. Inv. Annual increase in monthly invest. %Initial monthly investment required
Annual increase in monthly invest. %Initial monthly investment required
Goal Planner
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How many funds should I hold?
• Minimum:
1 fund! (all goals combined into one)
• Maximum:
No of long-term goals (10Y+) x (1 or 2)
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How to select an equity mutual fund?
• Decide on the strategy.
(1)Why are you investing?
(2) What kind of portfolio will you be using?
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Equity mutual funds: How to select/evaluate
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Equity mutual funds: How to select/evaluate
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Equity mutual funds: How to select/evaluate
Upside Capture ratio: When the benchmark has given a positive return (> 0), has the fund outperformed it?Higher (> 100%) the upside capture ratio, the better.
UPC = 120% => 20% out-performance during up-market
Downside Capture Ratio: When the benchmark recorded a loss, that is a negative return (< 0), did the fund record a lower or higher loss?Lower the downside ratio (<100%), the better.
DCP = 85% => 15% out-performance during down-market
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Equity mutual funds: How to select/evaluate
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Source: http://thefundoo.com/welcome/articlepage/44/Are+you+invested+in+the+Ideal+Outperforming+schemes%3F
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Rolling returns analysis
3YFund (blue)
Vs benchmark
5Y
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Retirement Planning
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Corpus ~ 300 times current annual expensesCorpus ~ 38 times annual expenses at retirement
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Invest as much as you spend each month for retirement!
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Financial Goal Tracking
• Be obsessed over goal planning entries not over mutual fund corpus
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Asset Allocation
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Portfolio with 50% equity and 50% debt
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Asset Allocation
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Maximum Loss: worst case scenario
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Asset Allocation
Time Frame Conservative Moderate Risky Mad-Max
< 5 Years FD/RD ~ 10% Eq 30-40% Eq > 60% Eq
7 Years FD/RD 10-20% Eq 40-50% Eq >60% Eq
10 years FD/RD 40% Eq >60% Eq 100% Eq
10-15 Years <40% Eq 60% Eq 80% EqFD/RD100% Eq
>15 Years < 60% Eq 60% Eq 80% EqFD/RD100% Eq
Time Frame Conservative Moderate Risky Mad-Max
< 5 Years FD/RD/Debt ~ 10% Eq 30-40% Eq > 60% Eq
7 Years FD/RD/Debt 10-20% Eq 40-50% Eq >60% Eq
10 years FD/RD/Debt 40% Eq >60% Eq 100% Eq
10-15 Years <40% Eq 60% Eq 80% EqFD/RD100% Eq
>15 Years < 60% Eq 60% Eq 80% EqFD/RD100% Eq
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How to select a debt mutual fund?
Understand risks• interest rate risk capital gain/loss •credit risk risk of default
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How to select a debt mutual fund?
Interest rate risk
Creditrisk
Maturity period of bonds in portfolio
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How to select a debt mutual fund?
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How to select a debt mutual fund?
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How to select a debt mutual fund?