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Page 1: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International
Page 2: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Who is Eating Whose Lunch?

Familiar Stories

Source: Jefferies LLC / April 2013.

Page 3: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Who is Eating Whose Lunch?

Emerging Stories

Source: Jefferies LLC / April 2013.

Page 4: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

…And Leading Tech Companies Are Also Vulnerable

When Underlying Technology Platforms Shift

Source: Jefferies LLC / April 2013.

Page 5: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

The Enterprise Strikes Back!! Largest Enterprise and Consumer

Technology IPO’s Performance

January 2011 - Present

Source: Jefferies LLC / April 2013.

Page 6: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Largest Internet and Software Technology IPO’s Performance

January 2011 - Present

Source: Jefferies LLC / April 2013.

Page 7: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International
Page 8: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Venture Capital Backed Technology Private Company Exits

Acquisitions of North American Private Sellers

Page 9: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Percentage Breakdown of Venture Backed Liquidity Events: IPO vs. M&A

M&As Remained Primary Source of Liquidity in 2012

Source: National Venture Capital Association.

Page 10: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

IPO Activity, 12 Years After The Bubble, Is Nowhere Close To

“Pre-Bubble” Levels… A Structural Change?

Page 11: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Recently Priced TMT IPOs in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013

Since 2010 there have been 146 IPOs in TMT, with 37.0% of these IPOs having priced

above the offering range

Source: Jefferies LLC / April 2013.

Page 12: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International
Page 13: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Number of Deals Allocated by Selected Industries

Source: Dow Jones Venture Source.

Page 14: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

IT Deal Flow and Investment Stabilized in 2011 Equity Investment in Information Technology Companies

Source: Dow Jones Venture Source.

Page 15: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars.

The VC Industry is “Rightsizing”

$6 $3 $9 $7 $12 $14 $17

$25

$43

$74

$135

$50

$15 $13 $22

$36 $36 $33 $27

$17 $14 $20 $20

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Last year, new capital commitments were close to 1997 levels

(adjusted for inflation)

New capital commitments ($ billions):

Page 16: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Startups can experiment easily and quickly

Number of Open APIs

Compute and Storage

Infrastructure

Web & Application Server

Databases Document Store

Startups

Increasingly

Pervasive APIs

Customers

105 352 601 1,116

1,628

2,647

4,676

9,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Startups don’t

have to build

their entire

infrastructure

anymore

A startup can

experiment at the “top of the stack”

Programmable web.

Page 17: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

The Education Revolution

GSV Advisors.

0

25

50

75

100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Venture investment in education companies

$ millions invested

# of Deals

Disappearing

classroom walls

Democratizing

educational content

Learning from

big data analytics

Campuses becoming

global institutions

Page 18: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Big Data is Transforming Infrastructure

Data Warehouse

Application Layer

Business Intelligence

Data Visualization

Database

Storage

Networking

Page 19: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International
Page 20: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International
Page 21: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International
Page 22: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Nonprofit –

$1,100B

Energy -

$5,000B

Education –

$2,200B

Telecom –

$4,700B

Legal – $585B

Publishing –

$28B Agriculture –

$5,000B

Real Estate –

$6,600B

Healthcare –

$4,500B

Insurance –

$4,100B

Travel –

$1,200B

Automotive –

$2,600B

Defense –

$700B

Financial

Services –

$10,000B

Music –

$130B

Recruiting –

$130B

Nearly All Major Industries Offer Software Investment

Opportunities

Page 23: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

The results are clear…. Portfolio Company Transformation (Average EBITDA Margin Across Portfolio)

Note: Slide represents Vista Equity Partners software platform companies. Past performance and results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Please also see “Important Disclosures” for important information on prior Vista funds performance. Line represents all current and exited investments.

Page 24: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

EBITDA Continues to Grow Even During the Recession

Page 25: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Multiple Steps Are Required to Boost Profitability

(1) PF EBITDA is based on projected PF EBITDA at the time of add-on acquisition as identified in investment model Note: Includes all current Vista platform companies acquired before 12/31/2010 Note: LTM 12/31/12 Note: Please also see “Important Disclosures” with respect to projections and prior performance of the Vista funds.

Page 26: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Equities rally in 2013 Equity indices in major countries

Note: U.S. (S&P 500), Eurozone (German DAX), UK (FTSE 100), Japan (Topix).

Source: Bloomberg.

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2010 2011 2012 2013

U.S.

Eurozone

Japan

U.K.

Index (January 1, 2010 = 100)

Page 27: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Source: Datastream.

Major equity indices

in local currency

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct-07 Nov-08 Dec-09 Jan-11 Feb-12 Mar-13

Dow Jones

Nikkei 225

Euro Stoxx 50

Shanghai A

Share

Previous DJIA peak = 100

Page 28: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

2.3B Global Internet Users in 2011 Majority of Growth Driven by Emerging Markets

‘08-’11 Adds (M): 15 11 14 16 215 19 28 21 37 69 ‘11 Y/Y Growth: 1% 26% NA 3% 12% 19% 44% NA 22% 38%

Source: KP, United Nations/International Telecommunications union, Internetworldstats.com as of 12/11

245

36 37 61

513

42 34 45 55

121

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011 Internet Users (M)

79%

49% 48%43%

38% 37% 35%

28% 23%

10%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

USA Turkey Iran Russia China Mexico Philippines Nigeria Indonesia India

% Population Penetration

Page 29: Who is Eating Whose Lunch?assets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · 2012 NVCA Yearbook. Capital Managed is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars. ... KP, United Nations/International

Emerging Markets are Creating Internet Leaders

Market USA Emerging Markets

eCommerce

Search

Social Networking

Travel

Jobs

Real Estate