'Y L SMU Publication: The Straits Times, p A42 & A43 Date: 2 April 2011 Headline: Who are the voters?

G E N E R A L E L E C T I O N 2 0 1 1

WHO ARE THE VOTERS?

R ETIREMENT, for 61-year-old Madam Tan Kwee Hua, means an idyllic life unfet- tered by bothersome

Issues hke pohks She meets her fnends every mornmg at a YIS- hun coffee shop for breakfast where they enloy one another's hght-hearted banter and goss~p

But ask them who they w ~ l l suuport m the cormng elect~on. d~~h- the al1,wtr i, wlaui~uuu~: ~11e ruling Pcoplc's Action Party (PAP).

"They have managed things well and helped out with estate IS- sues," says Madam Tan, a former electronics assembler who has lived m Nee Soon all her life and ra~sed three chlldren now m then 20s and 30s.

She falls withm what sociolo- gists cons~der the "baby boomer" generation, a bumper crop of ba- bies born between 1945 and 1964 who came of age In the na- t~on-building years of independ- ent Smgapore.

The baby boomers grew up w ~ t h Mr Lee Kuan Yew as their urune mmister, and ~artlcluated in the transformation of ~ i n g a - pore from Third World to First. Election after election. a rnaioritv consistently voted for Mr iee'; PAP.

Madam Tan fits various catego- ries of the average voter. C b - nese, mamed with grown-up chil- dren, and squarely mddle-class. She lives m a four-room flat w ~ t h her husband and two unmarried ch~ldren. Her elder daughter is marr~ed and lives in a nearby f~ve-room flat.

Wrth few Issues ~rkmg her and content w ~ t h her 11mg environ- ment, Madam Tan and other vot- ers like her are likely to form the vanguard of the PAP'S ground support

As political observer and former Nominated MP Zulkifh Ba- barndm sees it. "There is no ques- tion that the baby boomers WIU support the PAP. They have gone through a number of crises with them, and will be concerned d the Government becomes too ad- venturous and changes the rules of the game too much.

"They've seen how Singapore had progressed quite well under a steady government, and want to place empbas~s on the calibre, quality and maturity of candi- dates."

Watch out for post-75en

YET a percept~ble shift in the de- mographics is taking place as the latest census results show, and the new trends will pose some voting implications.

The numbers of those born be- fore the war, known as the "pre-war" generahon, have dwm- dled from 446,000 or one in five voters to 325,000 or one In seven voters withm a decade.

Thev arc the p i o n c c ~ ~ g gcnera - tion who votpd the PAP to power

by a landsl~de m the 1959 General Electlon and who agaln threw the11 support behind the party in its do-or-dle battle with Bansan Sos~alis In the 1963 polls

The number of baby boomers, or those born after the war and before Smngapore's independence, bas stayed at around one mlhon

The number of those born af- ter mdepeudence, known as the "Post-65" voters, has increased by half a mflion to 1.1 m u o n T h ~ s group forms almost one m two voters m the coming elec- tions, compared to one ~n three m the 2001 elect~ons.

But analysts say they repre- sent a wide d~vers~ty of people ranglng from the student to the middle-aged executive and it 1s diff~cult to figure out how they wlll vote

Political obsenrer Eugene Tan, an ass~stant law professor at the Smgapore Management Un~versl- ty, says this group might be "less enamoured of the PAP" and its "Tlurd to Fust World narrat~ve", but their concerns are not much different from those of theu par- ents

"Material concerns matter a lot to them, where they differ IS

the accent they place on post-ma- terlal Issues such as the state of democracy m Singapore and quah- ty of Ilfe," he says

Nat~onal Univers~ty of Smga- pore sociolog~st Tan Em Ser sug- gests that out of t h s group, a sub- set known as "Post-75" can be useful for analysing how voters aged between 21 and 35 wlll be- have.

"They would have been start- mg and b u ~ l d ~ n g the~r careers when Singapore was experlenc- mg shorter economc cycles, w t h more frequent occurrences of re- cession and rap~d globahsation, wble holdmg t~ghtly to an up- gradmg mentahty," he says

These voters would have expe- rienced the downturns followmg the Sept 11,2001 terrorist attacks m the United States and the Sars crlsls m 2003 They would have been battered by the global finan- cial crlsls of 2009 and felt squeezed by the influx of forugn- ers

Significantly, t b s group has grown from 196,000 or less than one in 10 voters ln the 2001 elec- tions, to 634,000 or more than one m four today

The PAP is acutely aware of these demograph~c changes wh~chexplains ~ t s urgency m par- ty renewal and connecting to these younger voters

As he introduced the fust slate of candidates on Monday last week, PAP second ass~stant secre- tary-general Teo Chee Hean said that young new cand~dates are brought m "to renew the leader- ship to make sure that we contm- ue to have Ideas and energy, and that we also continue to keep m touch w ~ t h the younger voters".

He also sad the new crop of PAP cand~dates wll be the young- est since the 1991 elections, with half of them m the~r 20s and 30s.

Among the 12 canddates mtro- duced so far are fresh faces hke umomst Desmond Choo, 33, Te- masek Holdngs' m-house coun- sel Desmond Lee, 34: lawyer Vlkram Na~r , 32, and busmess consultant Tin Pel Llng, 27, the

Aged 20-44 Malay (Post-65) 13.6% 46%

lndlan

- Others

iAged 1

(Babl ,6%

boomers) C- 1 -

I I I 0 - 17,w

U7J27 1 . ,,. h, j, I . . . . W~dowed 6.3% -. - 534,552 151,693 [

B .I.,,..," . . . . . . . . . .

Separated

4% g 3 ' 903 $ 5 Baby boomers 2,473 id 9,751 1

- --

Ever-married female voters -1lllterate

38% of total voting population (924592) %

40 -

i

35

21.9% Language voter is literate* in 16.7%

-

80 %74.8%

I fin -

8.2% I

1.9% - 17% - " None One Two Three Four F~ve S~xor Elght - 3.5% 47%

seven or more Engllsh Chlnese Malay TamJ lllrterate NUMBER OF CHILDREN *Able to read w~rh understandtng

% Qualilications 80-

73.2% Secondary and below

Post-secondary/ Poly/lTE

" None One Two Three or more

NUMBER OF CHILDREN L b ~ t 3% (75,000) NOTE F~gures may not add up to 100 per cent due to roundmg off

Much of the spotlight has been on the new candidates being unveiled by the various political parties. But who are the people who will vote for or against them in the coming polls? Based on Census 2010,2,417,885 Singaporeans will be 21 and above as of June. Insight crunches the data to give a breakdown of the electorate in the various demographic segments and discusses the voting implications.

MORE P75ERS, SINGLES AND DEGREE- HOLDERS Compiled every decade, Census data provides an opportunity to compare this year's electorate with those who voted two elections ago in the 2001 General Election. For the upcoming polls, the generation born after 1975 has emerged as a significant bloc comprising more than one in four voters. More singles and degree holders will be going to the voting booth.

1 rmo Total number of voters: 2,111,061 (100%)

Post-65 Baby boomers Pre 654,850 (31%) &a4454 (47.9%) 445,rsr

I Marrled WldowedJ Dlvorced/Sepatated I I g;i;96 (24.8%) 1 1,365,667 (66.2%) 124,478 (6%) 59,336 am) ............................................................................................................................

. - 0 .................................................................................. Total number of voters: 2,417,885 (100%) -

Secondary and below Post-secondary/Poly/ITE University 148,000 (lo%) .................................................................................................................. 225,000 (11%) 38x000 (1%) -

. lu-5%1 ~0,000 (55' 5 8 9 , ~ a ~,+VUU \AV/UJ I

Source: The Straits Times O Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Permission required for reproduction.

Publication: The Straits Times, p A42 & A43 Date: 2 April 2011 Headline: Who are the voters?

youngest woman candidate in re- cent history.

Political parties will do well to appeal to the needs of these vot- ers as manv of them will be V O ~ - Where A

~ u k i Panla m I Sengkang ""t SMC

1- I Purggol East SMC

ing for tdeir first time, says SMU's Mr Tan. are the "They are likely to be keenly following electoral news and de- velopme&. Many will be eager to cast their ballots, and we can ex- pect them to do their homework to determine W ~ O should get voters? their vote.

"They will be voters for many more GEs to come and so leavlng a solid first impression might re- sult in their being more predis- posed towards the party they first voted for. all things beine

rloneer SMC / - -

equal." But while uarties redouble ./'-

j i o ~ h l a t l sMc

1 Mountbatten SMC

Potong PaslrSMC

Whampoa SMC ?,S-r -hdln MassMc

*a ' @ FIvE-MEMBER G m vmERS ' 154,000 to 159,000

their efforts ro asno the young, rhcv cannot afford to ignore rhc elderly.

The census figures show vot- ers havine: fewer children across generat~ons. Prof Tan from N I T points our t h t the declining fcr- Lilitv raro have rcmlt-d ill 311 111- creasmgly agemg population that mght lead to "more pressure on the state to take care of depend- ent elderly couples".

The grey vote and the singles vote will matter, according to ana- lysts. The senlors will clamour for cheauer health care and facili- ties lke' retirement homes. The singles will press for affordable

\J public housing and benef~ts CONST'T' YTERS @ ' FOUR-MEMBERGRCVOTERS I which now go to therr married 3l,m0 to 34,000 1 . u,000 to 24,000 ?, 7 92,000 counteruarts.

142v000 to 148p000 SIX-MEMBER QRC VOTERS

137,000 to 140,000 180,000

120,000 to 125,000 170,000 ,,,,,, Hlcs As kholar Derek da Cunha

notes, the 651,000 single voters 75,000 to 28,000 r 7 17,000 today, or more than one in four, could mean that more are in- clmed to vote for the opposition especially if they are from the lower-middle or working class.

However, married voters w ~ l l contlnue to hold sway as they number 1.5 mdlion, and the unpll- cation is that it is vital that all po- litical parties campaign on fami- ly-friendiy policies, says Mr Tan.

"Wrth two- and three-child families being the norm, issues such as education will be impor- tant for these famihes," he says.

He points to an Institute of Pol- icy Studies (IPS) survey conduct- ed just after the ZOO6 elections, in which 985 Singaporean voters were polled on theu personal back- ground and votmg disposition.

It found, among other things, that what determined whether voters were likely to vote opposi- tion was not so much when they were horn - contrary to traation- a1 thinking - but whether they were professionals or working class, degree-holders or had only primary school education.

Dr Gillian Koh, a senior re- search fellow at 1PS who was in- volved in the survey, says: "It is

bke 'Do we needa strong opposi- tlon m Parliament to act as a check and balance?', 'Is a one-party state healthy for the country in the long run?', 'Will my vlews on immlgratlon and transportation be championed by the opposition?', 'Has the incum- bent party delivered the good Me?'

"How you answer these ques- tions would be a better determi- nant of how you vote, and this runs across age, racial and class lines."

Even the effect of pro-PAP new citizens, which some conspir- acy theorists dubbed as the PAP'S ultimate strategy to increase its vote share, could be limited. Dr Koh notes that they are unlikely to form a voting bloc as they "are dispersed across the country with possibly only one or two spots where there is a greater number of new Indian clt~zens".

Although each constituency is more or less a microcosm of Sin- gapore's multiuacxal and socioeco- nomic mix, the voter spread is

Who will vote opposition?

NOT surprisingly, census num- bers show that more voters are getting better-educated.

lnslght estimates that two elec- tions ago, those w ~ t h secondary and below education formed around 70 per cent of the votlng populat~on.

Today, the number has dropped to 55 per cent. Converse- ly, the number of voters who are university graduates has doubled, now forming 20 per cent of the voting population, up from 11 per pent

Us educatiol~, occu~ati;ll;ll chs, and educational levels that seem to be associated with a stronger disposition towards the need for or the desire for political plural- ism."

Mr Zulk~fli suggests that age groups might not matter that much, saying he comes across parents who worry about the same political issues their chil- dren are facine on immigrants

Analysts believe that among and the cost of i lvlg. - better-educated voters, lssues of "Parents might vote m tandem democracy andgovernance, free- 1~1th what their son or daughter dom and the deslre for more oppo- thmks about femgaporean par- s~tion will come to the fore ents worry more about kids than

It is thls category of soclo-eco- they should," he says nomlc class that 1s the one to Sociologist Terence Chow watch, they say, instead of other from the Institute of Southeast categories lke race and gender. Aslan Studles takes anissues-cen-

As blogger Alex Au puts ~ t : trlc view. "Each dimensionhas some effect, "I'm not convinced that age, but no drmens~on explams every- race or class are defimtwe factors thmg. My guess, however, 1s that that ~nfluencevoting patterns. Is- educat~onal level, age group and sues that would more lkely dl- lncome status are the three most vlde a PAP-voter from an opposl-

factc 1 roter would be .

not always representative. For ex- ample, some GRCs, like Tampi- nes, have a higher proportion of HDB flats than others like Tan- jong Pagar.

What this means. Mr Tan says, is that ~ilrimately. "a parry t h r can show r h t it is inclusivc will do well".

The votes of baby boomers l i e Madam Tan have kept the PAP in power, but its success in subsequent polls is assured only by staying relevant to Singapore- ans of all generations.

How the numbers art: deriueu are derlved from census data of Singaporeans aged U and above.

New citizen estimates based on National Population Secretariat data assume that three in four Singaporeans are of voting age.

Data is not easily available for other socio-economic indicators such as housing and monthly individual income.

For housing, available data tracks "resident households", whlch can include those under 21 as well as permanent residents who are ineligible for votmg.

For incomes, available data includes permanent residents with no speclfic figures on citizens. CAI HAOXUNa

INFORMATION on age, sex, race, marital status and children is avaltable from Census 2000 and Census 2010.

The published records track Smgaporean citizens by five-year age groups as of rune 30 in the year the census was done,

Gwen this classification, most citizens in the 20-24 age group last Tune will be eligible to vote in the upcoming general electionexpected to be held by June t h ~ s year.

The only exception are cltnens who turned 21 after Jan 1 this year. The current Registers of Electors were

updated with a cut-off date of Jan 1, andunless the Registers are revised a g m , this small group of Singaporeans, estimated to be around 22,000, will not be able to vote.

Information on educational quahfxabons is denved from census records of Singaporean "non-students aged 15 years and over".

The figures provided in our chart are estimated adjustments of this statistic, after excluding Singaporean non-students aged 15 to 19, and mcluding Singaporean students above the age of 20.

Esbmated literacy figures

Source: The Straits Times O Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Permission required for reproduction.