Where Are We Going, and Where Should We Be in Ten

Years?

Hofstra Labor & Employment Law J.Symposium on ERISA Preemption

Panel on “Going Forward”March 13, 2009by Jon Forman

Alfred P. Murrah Professor of LawUniversity of Oklahoma

Health Care Coverage of the Nonelderly, 2007

2

Source of Coverage Millions Percentage

Total population 262.3 100.0

Employment-based coverage

164.8 62.9

Individually Purchased 17.1 6.5

Public 48.6 18.5

Medicare 7.1 2.7

Medicaid 36.3 13.8

Military health care 8.4 3.2

No health insurance 45.0 17.1

Health Care Coverage of the Elderly, 2007

3

Source of Coverage Millions Percentage

Total population 36.8 100.0

Employment-based coverage

12.6 34.1

Individually Purchased 9.5 25.9

Public 34.5 93.7

Medicare 34.3 93.2

Medicaid 3.3 8.9

Military health care 2.6 7.1

No health insurance 0.7 1.9

4Office of Management and the Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America’s Promise (2009).

5Congressional Budget Office, Growth in Health Care Costs (January 31, 2008), Charts at 2.

6Congressional Budget Office, Growth in Health Care Costs (January 31, 2008), Charts at 6.

7Congressional Budget Office, Growth in Health Care Costs (January 31, 2008), Charts at 8.

8Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018 (January 23, 2008), Charts at 12.

9Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018 (January 23, 2008), Charts at 13.

10Jonathan Barry Forman & Yung-Ping [Bing] Chen, Optimal Retirement Age, in New York University Review of Employee Benefits and Compensation—2008, Volume II, Chapter 14 (2008).

11U.S. Government Accountability Office, Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today (GAO-08-465CG, January 14, 2008), at 8.

12Majority Staff, Senate Budget Committee, Brief Analysis, President Obama’s FY 2010 Budget (February 27, 2009), http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/index.html.

PROSPECTS TO REFORM

Health Care Reform Generally Little Chance for Expanded

Remedies Some Chance that We Allow the

States to Regulate Plans Some Chance of Moving Away from

Employment-Based Coverage

13

14

About the Author Jonathan Barry Forman (“Jon”) is the Alfred P.

Murrah Professor of Law at the University of Oklahoma College of Law, where he teaches courses on tax and pension law.

Professor Forman is also Vice Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Oklahoma Public Employees Retirement System (OPERS) and the author of Making America Work (Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press, 2006).

Prior to entering academia, Professor Forman served in all three branches of the federal government. He has a law degree from the University of Michigan and master’s degrees in economics and psychology.

Jon can be reached at jforman@ou.edu, (405) 325-4779, or www.law.ou.edu/faculty/forman.shtml.