Updating the IOOS-NCEP-MARACOOS Interaction: The Partnership is Working!

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

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MARACOOS MeetingBaltimore, MD

November 1, 2012

Outline

• “The Weatherman is not a Moron”• NCEP Enables Bay Forecasts and

Regional Coastal and Great Lakes Models• Extending Prediction Models into “Non-

Traditional” Areas• Ongoing Discussions with Regional

Associations• Summary

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THE WEATHERMAN IS NOT A MORON

IN THE HOCUS POCUS REALM OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE, WEATHER FORECASTING STANDS OUT AS AN AREA OF GENUINE, MEASURABLE PROGRESS. YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE MAY DIFFER. BY NATE SILVER

September 9, 2012

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From the inside, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction looked like a cross between a submarine command center and a Goldman Sachs trading floor.

Quoted from “The Weatherman is not a Moron” New York Times Magazine, September 9, 2012

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• Weather prediction has progressed when most other predictions have failed

• Progress can be “measured”/verified in a quantitative way

• Prediction capabilities include uncertainty and have already been integrated into key decision support

• Actually goes as far as stating the NWS does the best job in conveying uncertainty in forecast products

“The Weatherman is not a Moron” - Nate Silver, New York Times

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Hurricane Sandy

Day 7 ForecastValid 8AM Monday Oct 29

Verifying AnalysisValid 8AM Monday Oct 29

Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Saturday, October 27, 2012

Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Sunday, October 28, 2012

Wave Watch III model output valid 8PM Mon Oct 3036 hour Wave height forecast (ft)

72 hour Precipitation Forecast: 8AM Saturday Oct 27 – 8AM Tuesday Oct 30Issued 6AM, Sat Oct 27, 2012

Probability of 48 hour snowfall > 12 inchesIssued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012

Valid 8PM, Sunday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30

3 day Snow Accumulation (inches)Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012

Valid 8PM Saturday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30

Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System

(ESTOFS)Total Water Level (feet)

30 hour forecastInitial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28

Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System

(ESTOFS)Storm Surge relative to MSL(feet)

30 hour forecastInitial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28

ESTOFS Surge Guidance from 2AM Sunday Oct 28

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NCEP Enables Bay Forecasts and Regional Coastal and Great Lakes Models

NOAA Response to 2004 SAB NCEP Ocean Modeling Review Panel

• Major Recommendation #1: Integrate Ocean Modeling– NCEP will provide a comprehensive

operational national backbone ocean and coastal ocean modeling capability across time-scales of a few hours to a year or more.

– NOAA will integrate appropriate ocean, coastal ocean, estuarine and Great Lakes models, including NOS Regional operational models, into NCEP’s operational modeling system.

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

Sea Nettle

Forecast

• First global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP.• Based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) –

Community model developed under National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP)– Led by Navy/FSU

• Attributes– 1/12th degree horizontal resolution– Run once per day out six days– 32 vertical hybrid layers

• Earth System Modeling Framework compatible

• Provide boundary conditions for coastal models

• Implemented operationally on October 25, 2011

• Output: global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity 22

Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

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Bay Models Running on NCEP’s Operational Computers

• Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System

• Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System

• Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System

• Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System

• Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System

Advances – over previous versions running in NOS• Increased resolution, reliability, decreased run time• Improved real time and backup input fields (winds, etc)• Coastal ocean backbone to support navigation, hazards response,

ecological User comments: value usefulness, accessibility, reliability• Outputs used by USGS, USCG, NOS/OR&R, Applied Science

Associates, etc. in real-time setting. • Web products used daily by coastal managers, maritime, navigation

and emergency response communities.• Reliability and timely delivery of products are most important.Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site:

• Water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations

• Time series plots of selected locations, contour and vector map plots, animations

Model data sets on NOAA’s WOC and CO-OPS THREDDS, NOMADS• Station/point netCDF files (6-minute output): • Time series at selected stations• Gridded model output netCDF files (hourly output)

NOS Coastal Operational Forecast System Products:

• Runs on NCEP computers to produce four times daily forecast guidance of total water level, current

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Great Lakes Operational Forecast System

speed and direction, and water temperature for each of the Great Lakes.

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• Coupled Models: Atmosphere – Ocean – Land provide opportunities for ecosystem prediction: beach/water quality, health, ”critters”

Extending Prediction Models into “Non-Traditional” Areas

Coupling modelsand linking products

Regional Earth System Modeling

An Example of Operational Ecological Forecasting (Sea Nettles)

• Global Ocean Forecasts

• Ecological Forecasts– Forecasting Sea Nettles

• Bay Forecasts

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Ecosystem Prediction

28Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on October 4, 2012

• Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 2-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay

• Generated since 2002 in a research mode

• Important for water management and recreational purposes

• Put into operational production suite April, 2012

* Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers

Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay

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Surface Water Salinity Forecast GuidanceTampa Bay Operational Forecast System

Surface Water Temperature Forecast GuidanceTampa Bay Operational Forecast System

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Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom BulletinRegion: Southwest FloridaMonday, 27 August 2012NOAA Ocean ServiceNOAA Satellite and Information ServiceNOAA National Weather Service

Satellite chlorophyll image with possible HAB areas shown by red polygon(s).

NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System

Relies on satellite imagery, field observations, models, public health reports and buoy data to assess and predict bloom conditions, location and movements.

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Ongoing Discussions with Regional Associations

NCEP interactions with IOOS, RAs, MARACOOS

• Modeling and Assimilation Steering Committee (Tolman, Ji): ~2005-2008

• HFR steering committee (Ji-NCEP, S. Glen-MARACOOS): 2009-• “Super Regional Testbed” (SURA): 2010-2012• Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed: est. 2012• MARACOOS-NCEP meeting at NCEP: June 2012• Tony Siebers: member, MARACOOS Users Council and

Inundation Working Group• “Azafran” Discussions (Uccellini, Kuska)• Meeting at Rutgers: Oct. 2012

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Rutgers Whiteboard

High Priority

• Outcomes driving the process– Water/Beach quality?– Health?– Food security?

• Public/private sector• Operational Concept – Central model enabling

local model? Connecting atmospheric and ocean/coastal models?– Model Access (NOMADS)– Data Access (gliders, HF radar)

• Computing capacity34

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HYCOM

REGIONAL

Bay Models

DelawareChesapeake

TampaN. Gulf of MexColumbia R.

Local Coastal Models

GFS NAM Work

StationWRF

DATA

DATA

NOS/NCEPConnecting Atmospheric and Ocean/Coastal Models

27 kmwind grids

4 kmwind grids

Summary

• Weather-Ocean interaction envisioned in the 2004 SAB recommendations is alive and well

• Lessons learned from weather community are applicable to emerging coastal services

• NOAA/NOS remains committed to enabling the rapid spin up of coastal and ecosystem forecasting and serving the needs of the entire community (“enable”, not control)

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