when china rules the world martin jacques international week 2013, university of alberta, edmonton,...

WHEN CHINA RULES THE WORLD

MARTIN JACQUES

International Week 2013, University of Alberta ,

Edmonton, 28 January 2013

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Iron Ore

Zinc

Steel

Cotton

Copper

Rubber

Rice

Palm Oil

Soyabeans

Corn

Crude Oil

0 10 20 30 40 50

Share of Global Consumption

%


Percentage share of total trade with China


Country 1992 2001 2010

Brazil 0.90% 2.80% 14.00%

Argentina 1.10% 4.70% 9.70%

Chile 2.00% 5.60% 19.20%

Colombia 0.10% 2.00% 8.10%

Venezuela 0.00% 0.80% 8.40%

Mexico 0.00% 1.40% 5.70%

United States 3.50% 6.70% 14.30%

Canada 1.50% 2.30% 7.00%

UK 0.60% 1.90% 6.20%

Italy 1.20% 2.00% 4.80%

France 1.00% 1.60% 3.80%

Spain 1.20% 1.80% 4.20%

Portugal 0.30% 0.60% 1.80%

Germany 1.30% 2.70% 6.10%

Sweden 1.10% 2.10% 3.80%

Norway 0.80% 1.80% 4.10%

Turkey 0.70% 1.50% 6.40%

Russia N/A 4.70% 8.90%

Pakistan 2.90% 4.00% 13.50%

India 0.40% 3.50% 10.50%

South Africa N/A 2.80% 13.10%

Nigeria 0.50% 2.50% 6.90%

Egypt 1.60% 3.30% 9.00%

Algeria 0.80% 0.70% 5.90%

Saudi Arabia 0.90% 3.90% 12.80%

Japan 5.00% 11.80% 20.40%

South Korea 4.00% 10.80% 22.80%

Taiwan 1.00% 32.50% 43.00%

Thailand 2.20% 5.20% 12.00%

Malaysia 2.20% 4.70% 16.30%

Indonesia 3.50% 4.60% 12.70%

Philippines 1.20% 2.70% 12.40%

Australia 3.70% 7.50% 20.60%

Country 1992 2001 2010

Brazil 0.90% 2.80% 14.00%

Argentina 1.10% 4.70% 9.70%

Chile 2.00% 5.60% 19.20%

Colombia 0.10% 2.00% 8.10%

Venezuela 0.00% 0.80% 8.40%

Mexico 0.00% 1.40% 5.70%

United States 3.50% 6.70% 14.30%

Canada 1.50% 2.30% 7.00%

UK 0.60% 1.90% 6.20%

Italy 1.20% 2.00% 4.80%

France 1.00% 1.60% 3.80%

Spain 1.20% 1.80% 4.20%

Portugal 0.30% 0.60% 1.80%

Germany 1.30% 2.70% 6.10%

Sweden 1.10% 2.10% 3.80%

Norway 0.80% 1.80% 4.10%

Turkey 0.70% 1.50% 6.40%

Russia N/A 4.70% 8.90%

Pakistan 2.90% 4.00% 13.50%

India 0.40% 3.50% 10.50%


Nigeria 0.50% 2.50% 6.90%

Egypt 1.60% 3.30% 9.00%

Algeria 0.80% 0.70% 5.90%

Saudi Arabia 0.90% 3.90% 12.80%

Japan 5.00% 11.80% 20.40%

South Korea 4.00% 10.80% 22.80%

Taiwan 1.00% 32.50% 43.00%

Thailand 2.20% 5.20% 12.00%

Malaysia 2.20% 4.70% 16.30%

Indonesia 3.50% 4.60% 12.70%

Philippines 1.20% 2.70% 12.40%

Australia 3.70% 7.50% 20.60%

Country 1992 2001 2010

Brazil 0.90% 2.80% 14.00%

Argentina 1.10% 4.70% 9.70%

Chile 2.00% 5.60% 19.20%

Colombia 0.10% 2.00% 8.10%

Venezuela 0.00% 0.80% 8.40%

Mexico 0.00% 1.40% 5.70%

United States 3.50% 6.70% 14.30%

Canada 1.50% 2.30% 7.00%

UK 0.60% 1.90% 6.20%

Italy 1.20% 2.00% 4.80%

France 1.00% 1.60% 3.80%

Spain 1.20% 1.80% 4.20%

Portugal 0.30% 0.60% 1.80%

Germany 1.30% 2.70% 6.10%

Sweden 1.10% 2.10% 3.80%

Norway 0.80% 1.80% 4.10%

Turkey 0.70% 1.50% 6.40%

Russia N/A 4.70% 8.90%

Pakistan 2.90% 4.00% 13.50%

India 0.40% 3.50% 10.50%


Nigeria 0.50% 2.50% 6.90%

Egypt 1.60% 3.30% 9.00%

Algeria 0.80% 0.70% 5.90%

Saudi Arabia 0.90% 3.90% 12.80%

Japan 5.00% 11.80% 20.40%

South Korea 4.00% 10.80% 22.80%

Taiwan 1.00% 32.50% 43.00%

Thailand 2.20% 5.20% 12.00%

Malaysia 2.20% 4.70% 16.30%

Indonesia 3.50% 4.60% 12.70%

Philippines 1.20% 2.70% 12.40%

Australia 3.70% 7.50% 20.60%

Country 1992 2001 2010

Brazil 0.90% 2.80% 14.00%

Argentina 1.10% 4.70% 9.70%

Chile 2.00% 5.60% 19.20%

Colombia 0.10% 2.00% 8.10%

Venezuela 0.00% 0.80% 8.40%

Mexico 0.00% 1.40% 5.70%

United States 3.50% 6.70% 14.30%

Canada 1.50% 2.30% 7.00%

UK 0.60% 1.90% 6.20%

Italy 1.20% 2.00% 4.80%

France 1.00% 1.60% 3.80%

Spain 1.20% 1.80% 4.20%

Portugal 0.30% 0.60% 1.80%

Germany 1.30% 2.70% 6.10%

Sweden 1.10% 2.10% 3.80%

Norway 0.80% 1.80% 4.10%

Turkey 0.70% 1.50% 6.40%

Russia N/A 4.70% 8.90%

Pakistan 2.90% 4.00% 13.50%

India 0.40% 3.50% 10.50%


Nigeria 0.50% 2.50% 6.90%

Egypt 1.60% 3.30% 9.00%

Algeria 0.80% 0.70% 5.90%

Saudi Arabia 0.90% 3.90% 12.80%

Japan 5.00% 11.80% 20.40%

South Korea 4.00% 10.80% 22.80%

Taiwan 1.00% 32.50% 43.00%

Thailand 2.20% 5.20% 12.00%

Malaysia 2.20% 4.70% 16.30%

Indonesia 3.50% 4.60% 12.70%

Philippines 1.20% 2.70% 12.40%

Australia 3.70% 7.50% 20.60%

Country 1992 2001 2010

Brazil 0.90% 2.80% 14.00%

Argentina 1.10% 4.70% 9.70%

Chile 2.00% 5.60% 19.20%

Colombia 0.10% 2.00% 8.10%

Venezuela 0.00% 0.80% 8.40%

Mexico 0.00% 1.40% 5.70%

United States 3.50% 6.70% 14.30%

Canada 1.50% 2.30% 7.00%

UK 0.60% 1.90% 6.20%

Italy 1.20% 2.00% 4.80%

France 1.00% 1.60% 3.80%

Spain 1.20% 1.80% 4.20%

Portugal 0.30% 0.60% 1.80%

Germany 1.30% 2.70% 6.10%

Sweden 1.10% 2.10% 3.80%

Norway 0.80% 1.80% 4.10%

Turkey 0.70% 1.50% 6.40%

Russia N/A 4.70% 8.90%

Pakistan 2.90% 4.00% 13.50%

India 0.40% 3.50% 10.50%


Nigeria 0.50% 2.50% 6.90%

Egypt 1.60% 3.30% 9.00%

Algeria 0.80% 0.70% 5.90%

Saudi Arabia 0.90% 3.90% 12.80%

Japan 5.00% 11.80% 20.40%

South Korea 4.00% 10.80% 22.80%

Taiwan 1.00% 32.50% 43.00%

Thailand 2.20% 5.20% 12.00%

Malaysia 2.20% 4.70% 16.30%

Indonesia 3.50% 4.60% 12.70%

Philippines 1.20% 2.70% 12.40%

Australia 3.70% 7.50% 20.60%

China Development Bank and China Export-Import Bank gave loans of more than $110bn to other developing countries in 2009 and 2010. The equivalent institutions of the World Bank made loan commitments of $100.3bn.


2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q20.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%Pe

rcen

tage

of T

otal

Tra

de in

Ren

min

bi

Percentage of China’s Total Trade in Renminbi

The renminbi currently accounts for 9% of China’s total trade. This compares with 0.25% for the first halfof 2009, before policymakers launched the cross-border renminbi trade settlement scheme.

1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2000 2010 2020 2030South 70.3 53.1 42.1 39.5 39.9 43 52.4 60.5 66.9Asian developing

56.5 36.1 22.2 15.3 15.8 29.2 40.9 49.1 58.2

China 33 17.1 8.8 4.6 4.6 11.8 20.7 28.9 33.4India 16.1 12.2 7.5 4.2 3.1 5.2 8 12.2 18.6Russia 5.4 7.5 8.5 9.6 9.4 2.1 2.4 2.7 3Brazil 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.6 5.1North 29.7 46.9 57.9 60.5 60.1 57 47.6 39.5 33.1US 1.8 8.9 18.9 27.3 22.1 21.9 18.4 16.7 15.1EU 23.3 32 35.8 27.1 27.1 21.5 18.1 15.7 13.1Japan 3 2.3 2.6 3 7.8 7.2 5.4 4.4 3.2China/US 18.3 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.2

China’s share of global GDP in 2030

Hu Angang


South67%

North33%

Share of Global GDP in 2030: North and South


(North America, EU, Japan)

(China, developing world)

Share of Global GDP in 2030: Regional Breakdown


Other asian developing

6%

China 34%

India 19%

Russia 3%

Brazil 5%

US 15%

EU 13%

Japan 3%

Other2%

Boundary of the Qin Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, c. 206BC


Boundary of the Han Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, 141-87BC


2003 2005 2007 20090

20

40

60

80

100

CentralProvincialDistrict/CountyTownship/Village

Relatively or extremely satisfied with government


The Great Paradigm Shift: the Challenge Facing the West

“Since we got there first, we think we have the inside track on the modern condition, and our natural

tendency is to universalize from our own experience… [He]has seen fit to characterize the West as the most

provincial of all great contemporary civilizations. Never have Westerners had to take other peoples’

views of us really seriously. Nor, like the representatives of all other great cultures, have we

been compelled to take fundamental stock of our own culture, deliberately dismantle large portions of it , and put it back together again in order to survive…”

Paul A. Cohen


when china rules the world martin jacques international week 2013, university of alberta, edmonton,...

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