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Mike Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan Wolverine Caucus September 20, 2016

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Page 1: What Kind of Presidential Election is This?

Mike TraugottCenter for Political Studies

University of Michigan

Wolverine Caucus September 20, 2016

Page 2: What Kind of Presidential Election is This?
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Polarization in the Electorate(Disapprove of a child marrying across parties)

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22%

27%

82%

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Clinton 273 (201 solid, 72 leaning) Trump 191 (158 solid, 33 leaning) Tossup 111 (8 states)

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Clinton 272 (190 solid, 82 leaning) Trump 163 (127 solid, 36 leaning) Tossup 103 (7 states + 2 EV’s)

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8 pp. diff 12 pp. diff 15 pp. diff

Goldstein, Bloomberg Politics

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New York Times, September 20

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