what is the evidence of the impact of the economic crisis on public health? david stuckler, phd mph...
TRANSCRIPT
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What is the evidence of the impact of the economic crisis on public
health?
David Stuckler, PhD MPH
Oxford and LSHTM
WithMarc Suhrcke, Sanjay Basu, Adam Coutts and Martin McKee
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Disaster? Blessing?
“Econocide to surge as recession bites”
– BBC Mar 2009
“Recession is a lifestyle blessing in disguise”
– Times Oct 2008
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Source: Hanley 1931 Life
Great Depression: not so bad?
Sources: NYT Oct 1930; AP 1932; WP 1930
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- Income ↓ 30%
- All-Cause Mortality Rates ↓ 10%
- Suicide ↑40%
Evidence
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ProhibitionNew Deal
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Post-Soviet Depression: devastating
Rising Unemployment
Alcohol and Surrogates
Prisons and Tuberculosis
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Overview
- Income↓ 30%
- Suicide ↑about 40%
- All-Cause Mortality Rates ↑ 20%
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But important variations:
Worse in countries with: - rapid economic change, - weak social protections, - low social capital
Cuba, Finland:- Incomes fell but health stable
Source: Stuckler et al 2009 Mass privatisation and the post-communist mortality crisis Lancet
Russia & Belarus
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IMF Programs and TB Control
- Gov Spending↓ 8%
- Doctors ↓ 8%
- Directly Observed Therapy avg. ↓ 40%
- TB incidence ↑ 17%
Source: Stuckler et al 2008 IMF Programs and Tuberculosis outcomes PLoS Med
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Lessons?
Social Protection
Drugs and Alcohol
Social Cohesion
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Unemployment-Mortality1% rise in unemployment associated with:
- 0.8% ↑Suicide
- 0.8% ↑Homicide
- 1.4% ↓Traffic death
No effect on all-cause mortality
Source: Stuckler et al 2009 Lancet
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Some populations more vulnerable
1015
2025
Un
emp
loym
ent R
ate
(Lab
our F
orce S
urveys)
89
1011
12S
uici
de
Ra
tes
per
10
0,00
0 (u
nde
r 6
4)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
Suicide Male Unemployment Rate
Average Labour Market Protection: $88 per headSpain
24
68
10
Un
emp
loym
ent R
ate
(Lab
our F
orce S
urveys)
1520
2530
Sui
cid
e R
ate
s p
er 1
00,
000
(un
der
64)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
Suicide Male Unemployment Rate
Average Labour Market Protection: $362 per headSweden
24
68
1012
Un
emp
loym
ent R
ate
(Official)
6.5
77.
58
8.5
Sui
cid
e R
ate
s p
er 1
00,
000
(un
der
64)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
Suicide Unemployment Rate
Average Labour Market Protection: $95 per headUnited Kingdom
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Social Protections Help…
Each 100 USD greater social spending reduced the effect on suicides by:- 0.38%, active labour market programmes- 0.23%, family support- 0.07%, healthcare- 0.09%,unemployment benefits
Spending> 190 USD no effect of unemployment on suicide
Source: Stuckler et al 2009 Lancet
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Recommendations
• Active Labour Market Programmes
• Health Stimulus Funding
• Evidence-Based Crisis Response Plan
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An opportunity for whom?
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Appendix
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East Asian Financial Crisis: it depends
Sources: Hopkins 2006 Health Policy; Chang 2009 Soc Sci Med
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Implications for Europe?1) Social spending to re-integrate and prevent job loss appears effective
2) Effects not as bad as some suggest
3) Potential long-term health effects (nutrition)
4) Vulnerable groups at greater risk (within-country inequality)
5) Vulnerable populations, budget cuts (e.g. IMF programs)
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Rhetoric or reality?
-“Grave debt crisis”; “public finances out of control”
BUT-Debt/GDP lower than US, France, Germany, EU average-About same as 10 years ago
AND- Temporary deficits OK
UK Debt
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Dow and Deficit
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Future Research?
1) Evaluate Prohibition & New Deal
2) Investigate East Asian Crisis
3) Iceland, nutrition & dietary change
4) Health co-benefits to social protections
5) Study IMF programs effects
6) Speculative finance and commodity bubbles
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Stuckler, D., S. Basu, M. Suhrcke, A. Coutts, M. McKee. 2009. The public health effect of economic crises and alternative policy responses in Europe: an empirical analysis. The Lancet. 374(9686):315-23
Stuckler, D., L. King, and M. McKee. 2009. Mass privatization and the postcommunist mortality crisis: a cross-national analysis. The Lancet. 373(9661): 399-407
Stuckler, D, S. Basu, M. Suhrcke, A. Coutts, M. McKee. 2009. The health implications of financial crisis: A review of the evidence. Ulster Medical Journal. 78(3): 142-5
Lock, K., D. Stuckler, K. Charlesworth, M. McKee. 2009. Potential causes and health effects of rising global food prices. British Medical Journal. 339:b2403
Stuckler, D and S. Basu. 2009. The International Monetary Fund's effects on global health: before and after the 2008 financial crisis. International Journal of Health Services. 39(4): 771-81.
Stuckler, D., S. Basu, and L. King. 2008. International Monetary Fund programs and tuberculosis outcomes in post-communist countries. Public Library of Science Medicine 5(7): e143
Stuckler, D., L. King and A. Coutts. 2008. Understanding privatisation's impacts on health: Lessons from the Soviet Experience. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 62(7): 664.
Stuckler, D., S. Basu, M. McKee, L. King. 2008. Mass incarceration can explain population increases in TB and multi-drug resistant TB in European and central Asian countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. v105(36):13280-5.
Stuckler, D., C. Meissner and L. King. 2008. Can a bank crisis break your heart? Globalization and Health 4(1):1-12.
Stuckler, D. 2008. Population causes and consequences of leading chronic diseases: A comparative analysis of prevailing explanations. The Milbank Quarterly 86(2):273-326.
Some Underlying Publications
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I. Great Depression
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When the full record of the year 1931 is written, no chapter will be more striking than the one dealing with public health. The country was in the grip of the most serious industrial depression in a generation...By all the signs and all the precedents, hard times so seriously prolonged should have brought in their train disease and death.
Actually, 1931 was one of the healthiest years in the history of the country. The evidence is overwhelming.
– New York Times, Jan 5th, 1932
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Empirical Setup
Sample and Period: 114 U.S. Cities, 1929-1937
‘Shock’: Bank Suspensions: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – percentage of banks suspended in calendar year
Mortality: U.S. Bureau of the Census – Crude death rates for >30 causes – Epidemiology: city-level, weighted U.S. urban populations – Econometric: state-level, weighted U.S. state means
Economic and Demographic Controls: –Urbanisation Rates, Literacy Rates, Percentage Black Ethnicity, Age-structure
Fixed Effects + Hodrick Prescott Filter
Thanks to Price Fishback for collecting data
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Immediate Causes of Death
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Effects of the Great Depression
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Potential Role of Prohibition
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II. Postcommunist Mortality Crisis
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Three million excess deaths
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Privatisation & Mortality
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Unemployment: A mediating factor
Adjustment for unemployment reduces privatisation coefficient by :-10% (mass privatisation program) - 25% (1 unit on EBRD scale)
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Social Capital: A protective factor
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Empirical SetupSample and Period: 26 Postcommunist CEE and FSU Countries, 1991-2002
‘Shock’: Mass Privatization: EBRD and WB – transferring at least 25% of large-state owned enterprises to the private sector within 2 years – jump from 1 to 3 on EBRD large-scale privatisation index
Mortality: WHO and UNICEF – Age-standardised mortality rates in working-age men (15-59) – Life expectancy, alcohol-related mortality rates, suicide rates
Economic and Demographic Controls: WB, EBRD, ILO – Price liberalisation, Trade liberalisation, GDP per capita, Democratisation Index, Dependency Ratio, Urbanisation Rates, Education Levels
ittiitititit XPRIVAMR
Two Way Fixed Effects + Control Function
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Clue #1: Working-Ages
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Clue #2: Men
Russian Life Expectancy
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Clue #3: Immediate Causes: Heart Attacks, Accidents, Suicides
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Clue #4: Healthcare Collapse?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1965 1975 1985 1995
Yeard
ea
ths/
10
0,0
00
Russia
UK
• Death rate from avoidable mortality in UK and Russia similar in 1965, when little could be done
• Gap began to widen in 1970s, and has continued to do so since
• It rose rapidly in the early 1990s before falling back
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“Despite economists’ reputation for never being able to agree on anything, there is a striking degree of unanimity in the advice that has been provided to the nations of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The legions of economists who have descended on the formerly Communist economies have provided advice very similar … The three “-ations”—privatization, stabilization, and liberalization —must all be completed as soon as possible.”
Lawrence Summers (1994: 252-253)
Shock Therapy versus Gradualism
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Potential Health Effects of Mass Privatization
Mass Privatization
Mass Unemployment ↑ Adult mortality
Reduced Social Provision
Firm Failure
“… I was the person sent to Russia to live in the factories and feed back information to the bank. I spent months in the factories. In one, I slept in an empty ward in the sanatorium. I realised very quickly that the master plan of privatising Russian industry overnight was going to impose huge costs on
hundreds of thousands of people. These factories were producing goods that once they were launched, no one would want in a too competitive market. They would have to slash tens of thousands of jobs. But also, these factories provided
schools, hospitals, health care and retirement - cradle to grave. I raised these concerns in Washington, to say there weren't any safety nets in place. It became clear to me that it was really a political play, that they wanted to take assets out
of the state's hands, so the Communist Party wouldn't come back.” -- WB administrator overseeing Mass Privatization in Russia
↑ mortality
↑ mortality
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Russia & Belarus
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68
69
70
71
Life
Exp
ect
an
cy a
t B
irth
(ye
ars
)
1991 1994 1997 2000Year
Mass Privatizers Non Mass Privatizers
Data Source: WHO European Health for All Database 2007
Postcommunist CountriesMass Privatization and Life Expectancy
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Table 2. Effect of Privatization on Male Life Expectancy in Transition Countries, 1991-2002
Covariates (1) (2) (3)
Mass Privatization -1.58
(0.23)*** – –
EBRD Average Privatization Index
– -0.49
(0.18)** –
EBRD Cumulative Privatization Index
– – -0.03 (0.03)
Log(GDP per capita) 1.61
(0.30)*** 1.81
(0.30)*** 1.79
(0.35)***
EBRD Price Liberalization Index
-0.22 (0.15)
-0.26 (0.14)
-0.28 (0.15)
Heritage Foundation Democracy Index
0.24 (0.05)***
0.25 (0.06)***
0.22 (0.06)***
Military Conflict -0.74
(0.29)** -0.64
(0.30)* -0.63
(0.31)*
Percentage of Population Urban
-0.63 (0.14)***
-0.45 (0.13)***
-0.39 (0.14)**
Population Dependency Ratio
-0.08 (0.08)
-0.15 (0.06)
-0.16 (0.07)*
Percentage of Population with Tertiary Education
-0.01 (0.01)
-0.02 (0.02)
-0.01 (0.02)
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Table 3. Effects of Mass Privatization and Log GDP per Capita on Log Male Death Rates in 25 Transition Countries by Age, 1991-2002
Covariates Infanta Under-5a 5-14 15-59 60+
Mass Privatization 2.92%* (1.44)
2.00% (1.49)
0.20% (0.95)
13.51%*** (2.31)
1.32%*** (0.38)
Log GDP per capita
-0.10%*** (0.01)
-0.11%*** (0.01)
-0.05%*** (0.01)
-0.14%*** (0.03)
-0.02%** (0.01)
Working-Age Men
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Path Analysis: Alcohol and Unemployment
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Job Loss & Health: Evidence from RLMS
- Hazard Dying: ↑~3-4-fold
- Odds Excess Vodka: ↑40%
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Who loses jobs?
- 40% higher risk at private firm
Chance job loss next year:10.4% if privatized9.1% if Russian private7.9% if foreign6.2% if state
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Failing Tuberculosis Control
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62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Life expectancy at birth, in years
Inaccurate and Misleading Data
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Russia’s regions: pace of economic change and LE
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Table 3. Vodka consumption per capita
Year Belarus Russia
1990 3.6 3.6
1991 4.4 4.1
1992 4.8 3.8
1993 5.9 4.9
1994 5.6 5.5
1995 5.5 7.0
1996 6.4 5.5
1997 6.2 5.5
1998 5.8 6.0
1999 5.1 6.5
2000 4.2 6.5
2001 3.8 6.3
2002 3.7 6.2
2003 3.2 6.2
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Table WB7. Effect of Male Adult Mortality and Life Expectancy on Log GDP per Capita
Health Measure Effect on Log GDP per Capita
Adult Male Mortality Rates -0.45%***
(0.12)
Male Life Expectancy 0.04*** (0.01)
Note: Coefficients calculated as semi-elasticities presented; Robust standard errors in parentheses. Models also control for EBRD price-liberalization index, EBRD trade liberalization index, democratization, population dependency, the percentage of population living in urban settings, education rate, and country-specific fixed effects. Significance at * p-<0.05, ** - p<0.01, *** - p<0.001
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Belarus
Russia
Ukraine
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
England & Wales
W Germany
Women
Men
Probability of surviving from 20 to 60
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Covariates Model 1: Physicians
Model 2: Nurses
Model 3: Dentists
Model 4: Hospital
Beds
Model 5: Inpatient
Admissions -0.15* -30.31 -3.92** -0.72** 0.08
Mass Privatization (0.07) (16.32) (1.37) (0.20) (0.36)
0.10 -44.31* 4.00** 0.22 2.05** GDP
(0.07) (18.61) (1.47) (0.22) (0.41)
0.07** 18.21** 0.41 0.32** 0.74** Urbanization
(0.02) (5.23) (0.42) (0.06) (0.11)
-0.01 6.21* 0.70** 0.16** 0.11 Dependency
(0.01) (2.66) (0.22) (0.04) (0.06)
0.11 37.99 -1.89 1.53** 2.98** Fertility
(0.11) (23.81) (2.01) (0.33) (0.58)
-0.06 -18.40 1.24 -0.31** -0.34 Price Liberalization
(0.03) (8.69) (0.70) (0.10) (0.19)
0.00 0.81 0.16** -0.01** 0.11** Education
(0.00) (0.72) (0.06) (0.00) (0.02)
Number of Observations (NxT)
286 296 299 278 303
Number of Countries (N)
26 25 25 26 26
R2 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.94 0.96 Note: Models 1 scaled per 1,000 population, Models 2-4 per 100,000 population, Model 5 per 100 admission; Constant not reported; Fixed Effects with country effects presented, period effects do not alter results; Prais-Winsten transformation used to accommodate AR(1) error structure; * = p<0.05; ** = p<0.01 (two-tailed tests)
Health Resources
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In writing about Stalinism, John Maynard Keynes observes that “We have a fearful example in Russia today of the evils of insane and unnecessary haste. The sacrifices and losses of transition will be vastly greater if the pace is forced…”
Yale Review, 1933
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IV. Recessions in Europe
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Men
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Women
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Other Measures
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Interaction Term