what is driving indian financial markets in june 2016
TRANSCRIPT
Nifty posted positive returns for the month May 2016
Time Period Index Level Change
Apr 29- May 31 7850 to 8160 3.95%
6,900.00
7,100.00
7,300.00
7,500.00
7,700.00
7,900.00
8,100.00
8,300.00
8,500.00
8,700.00
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16
Nifty 50
Top 5 Monthly Gainers
Company Name% Gain in May
2016Remarks
L&T 17.81%
The stock surged 17.81% in the month of May as the company reported strong numbers in Q4 FY 16. Revenue increased 18.3 % YOY to Rs 33,157 crore due to progress in project execution in infrastructure and power. Infrastructure segment constitutes 47% of the total revenues in FY 16. The Government focus on the infrastructural segment will help the company to register growth in its core business in coming years. The consolidated order book of the company stands at Rs.`2.5 lac crore.
Bosch 13.99%
The company registered highest Q4 EBITDA margins in last two years at 21.5% due to decline in cost.The company have received approval from the board and shareholders for selling its less profitablestarter motor and generator business. The business generates 10% of Bosch sales but contributes only1% of EBIT. Sale of business is expected to boost margins for the company in the future.
Asian Paints 13.88%The company reported net profit of Rs. 408 crore, an 19.88% increase in consolidated profit, for thequarter Q4 FY 16. The sales of the company grew 12.29% YOY at Rs.3919 crore. The growth in saleswas supported by pay commission hike, normal monsoon expectation and traction in small cities.
HDFC13.35%
The company received approval to sell its 10% stake in HDFC life, its insurance subsidiary through anIPO. It is expected to raise $400 million through the IPO. It has already sold 9% stake of its insurancebusiness in the month of march to partner standard life Mauritius holdings
Tech Mahindra 13.23%
Tech Mahindra is to acquire ‘Target TOPCO limited’ for $163 million which is a financial firm in the UK.The purchase will allow the company to capture a greater market share of the UK’s financial servicessoftware and services market. In addition, the good Q4FY16 result also pushed the share price. Thenet profit of the company has almost doubled to Rs. 897 crores in Q4 FY 16 from Rs. 472 in the samequarter last year.
Top 5 Monthly Losers
Company Name% Loss in
May 2016Remarks
Adani Ports 17.51%
Moody’s and S&P revised the rating of Adani ports to Negative from stable on poor port volume and highdebt. The loans and advances of the company are continuously rising from Rs. 4400 crore in FY 12 to Rs.7000 crore in FY 16. The net debt of the company stands at Rs. 20000 crores. In addition to that thecompany has huge capex plans which will result in negative cash flow in FY 17.
Cipla 12.58%
The company posted 69% fall in net profit for Q4 FY 16, due to one-off costs related to its business inEurope and some emerging markets. The company is working on exiting some emerging markets due tocomplexities and changing its European business from ‘direct to consumer’ to ‘business to business’. Themargins will remain under pressure due to investment in research and development. The company expectsR&D to be 8% of sales in FY 17 v/s 6.5% in FY 16.
Lupin 8.91%
Lupin’s share price tanked 8.91% in the month due to concerns over the US Food and Drug Administration(USFDA)’s observations on its Goa plant. In march, the company received 9 adverse observations and it isexpected to resolve in next two to three months. Any delay in the resolution will impact new productapprovals and will hit the sales. Similarly, the interest cost is expected to increase in FY 17 because of the$800 million loan it took to fund Gravis acquisition.
Bank of Baroda 8.17%
The paramount NPA problem is keeping the PSU banks stocks under pressure. Bank of Baroda’a Gross NPAstands at 9.99% and Net NPA stands at 5.06% as on 31st March 2016. The bank reported a net loss ofRs.3230 crore in Q4FY16. Advances declined by 10.3% to Rs. 38377 crore (YOY)due to decline in retail, SME,farm credit, overseas and corporate advances.
Eicher Motors 6.89%The share price of Eicher motors tanked in May 2016 as the promoters sold more than 4% stake in thecompany in secondary market. The proceeds of the sale will be utilize for personal use suchas portfolio and other investments, and charitable purposes.
Domestic actions
TopicMonth End Level
Change DescriptionApril May
Monthly NIFTY 7,850 8,160 3.95%
Nifty 50 gained 3.95% on MOM basis because of recovery in corporate earningsafter a drop in the last four quarters. In addition to that, the rise was alsosupported by the good monsoon expected in the country after a period of twoyears.
FII net inflow( Rs. Cr) 3,655 2,559 -30%The FIIs slowed down their inflows in May 2016 due to concern over rate hike inthe US.
DII net inflow (Rs. Cr) -2,554 6,758 364.6%
The DII have turned net buyers in May 2016 on the expectation of rate cut in upcoming RBI policy, healthy corporate earnings and improvement in economic data such as Government achieved the fiscal deficit target of 3.9% and GDP growth rate of the FY 2015-2016 7.6%.
S&P BSE Small Cap 11,021 11,142 1.10%The emphasis of the government on infrastructure, rural and social sectors has alsopushed the small caps. Most of the small cap companies fall under these sectors.
S&P BSE Mid Cap 11,043 11,366 2.92%The midcap sector has rallied on account of the good quarterly performance of the companies in auto ancillary and NBFC space and cement space. Most of the companies fall in the mid-cap sector.
(20,000)
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Equity (Rs.crore)
Equity (Rs.crore)
FII inflows though positive shows downward trend
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16
Equity (Rs. crore)
DII Inflows shows positive trend
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16
DII Inflows (Rs. In crore)
Sensex PE and PB reaching attractive zone
3.05
2.93
3.03
2.89
2.752.75
2.622.622.59
2.49
2.65
2.71
2.792.83
2.882.9
2.972.93
3.04
2.96
3.063.09
3.063.03
2.952.95
3.07
2.96
2.74
2.94
2.752.73
2.71
2.55
2.71
2.8
2.74
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
3.2
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16
Sensex PE & PB Ratio
PE Ratios PB Ratios
International Action
TopicIndex Level
Difference DescriptionApril May
Oil Price (Brent) $48.13 $49.55 2.95%
The oil prices surged as the oil production in the US is continuously falling. In addition tothat, recent attacks in Nigeria on pipelines and production facilities by the militants havesharply reduced the oil output. This has resulted in lowering the gap between demand andsupply of the crude oil.
Dow Jones 17,774 17,786 0.07%Dow Jones did not gain much on MOM because people were worried about rise in USinterest rates in upcoming policies which will hurt the performance of the stocks.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
(ETF)$34.39 $33.12 -3.69%
The Caxin PMI (tracks small and medium-sized enterprises) for China is continuouslydeclining , it stood at 49.2 in the month of May v/s 49.4 in the previous month ( a PMIbelow 50 indicates contraction in the economic activity). Similarly, the Brazilian marketdeclined by 10% in May as compared to previous month. This is because sharp fall inenergy stocks due to corruption issues in the sector.
Events to watch in June 2016
Date Country Event Previous Estimates
2nd June 2016 USA OPEC meeting - -
3rd June 2016 IndiaNIKKEI service
PMI53.7 -
3rd June 2016 Europe Service PMI 53.1 53.1
7th June 2016 India RBI Policy 6.50% -
7th June 2016 Europe GDP (YOY) 1.50% -
7th June 2016 China CPI data 2.30% -
14th June 2016 India WPI data 0.34% -
30th June 2016 IndiaForeign debt
(USD)482.9B
-
Our
offering
My Financial Advisor For Multi products Advice and online
investing
Personalized Advice on all
Investments
Invest in Direct Plans of Mutual
funds
Tax planning
Quarterly Review by experts
Financial Goal Planning report
Track all your Investments Online
We Offer
Know More
My Private Banker For 360° Financial Management and
Planning
Comprehensive Financial Planning
Dedicated Personal Advisor for all
needs
Income tax planning and Filing of
Return*
Accounting and record keeping*
'0' brokerage on Shares and
Mutual fund
Monthly review
Our Approach
Risk Profiling
Risk Capacity-
How much Risk
you can afford
to take
Risk Attitude-
How much Risk
you want to
take
Financial
Goals
All Financial
Goals of the life
The Inflation
adjusted
amount
required to
meet them
Right Portfolio
Investment
Products right as
per risk profile
Portfolio which is
tax efficient
Buy/ Sell
With least
Brokerage &
Commission
With Nil
hidden costs
Regular
Monitoring
Of Portfolio
and Markets
Rebalance
Investments
when required
1 2 3 4 5
Know best
Investment Portfolio
for you Start Now
Customized Financial
Management
Wealth Creation
Advice
Monthly Savings Advice
Tax Saving Investments
Portfolio Tracker Goal Planning Online Transaction
In case you want to
invest Lump Sum
In case you want to invest On
Monthly basis
In case you want to Make
Tax Saving Investments
In case you want to Buy
and Sell any product
In case you want to Plan
your Financial Goals
If you want to Track
your investments
Why AdviseSure
Simple & Easy
Paperless
Process
Multiproduct
Cost Effective
Online Access
Our Simple and easy Personal Finance Tools & self-help process, ensures
that you take Better control of your entire Finance in 7 Minutes , to your
satisfaction.
Invest and Manage Online , on a Single Click. No need to Fill boring
Physical forms and storing statements. Manage Your Finance with easy
and simple back office.
We don't Push Products to our Customers Like Agents or Brokers, for
commissions or brokerages. You can continue buying and selling with
your current Broker or Agent. However you can also transact through us
at substantial low Cost.
You can manage your account from anywhere through multiple support
points.
We advice on almost all Financial Products except banking accounts.
You can transact in all products through us. Our technology will ensure
superior Experience
AdviseSure Investment Advisors is India’s first only Advise
platform where we help individual, managing personal
finance. AdviseSure Investment Advisors is part of AdviseSure
Ventures Private limited. AdviseSure Investment Advisors is a
SEBI registered Investment Advisor and its associate/group
company empanelled with AMFI as a distributor .You can
execute transactions with your banker, stock broker or agent/
financial intermediary . We also offer transaction services
through various associations, at a substantially lesser cost to
our clients as compared to other financial intermediaries, so
that you start your financial plan with AdviseSure Investment
Advisors is a safe and secure platform. Our recommendations
rely on historical data. Historical/ past performance is not a
guarantee of future returns. The information and views
presented here are prepared by AdviseSure Investment
Advisors. The information contained herein is based on our
analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We,
however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the
completeness thereof. This material is for personal information
and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon
it. This document is solely for the personal information of the
recipient. The investments discussed or recommended here
may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their
own investment decisions based on their specific investment
objectives and financial position and using such
independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors
may please note that neither AdviseSure Investment Advisors
nor any person connected with any associated companies
of AdviseSure Investment Advisors , accepts any liability
arising from the use of this information and views mentioned
here. Each recipient of this document should make such
investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an
independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of
the companies referred to in this document (including the
merits and risks involved), and should consult their own
advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an
investment.
AdviseSure Investment Advisors
CORPORATE OFFICE : C411- Crystal Plaza, Opposite Infitni Mall, Link road, Andheri west, Mumbai 400053
-------------
Website : www.advisesure.com Email: [email protected]