What I am doing:

Intro to essayHow to apply a pointWorld Imbalances

What you are doing

Constructive criticism of U6D

Planning essay

Comment on imbalances

• "Discuss the implications of global trade imbalances to the recovery from global recession." 30 Marks

Technique• Define the key terms of the essay in your intro• Four clear paragraphs – one for each evaluated point• Remember to PEEE your points and relate tightly to the

question– Point– Explain– Exemplify– Evaluate

• Signposting to show what skill you are displaying.– “This is because” – Analysis– “This can be seen” – Exemplification (Application)– “The significance of this is …” - Evaluation– “In evaluation”

• A concluding paragraph that links to the question.

Resources

• BBC’s superb multi-region look at the imbalances and their consequences.

• Two great articles from Robert Peston– Do imbalances matter?– Can the UK close the deficits?

• Wikipedia• Arguments from key international figures about trade imbalances• Why exchange rate changes will not correct global trade imbalances • Mervyn King on trade imbalances• David Cameron on trade imbalances• China lashes Fed easing as risk to global recovery• What is currency manipulation?• Video – China and America• Video - Alan Greenspan on trade imbalances• Income-Led Demand Key to G-20 Imbalances • Geithner Says US Will Never Weaken Dollar for Economic Growth

Evaluation

W Wider context – consider the bigger picture and use it to weight your arguments

E Efficiency – Does this achieve a more/less efficient allocation of resources?

E Equality – Do some parties benefit more/less than others

S Scope – How many people are effected by the point? Is it wide reaching or narrow?

T Time – How long will it last, SR or LR or both?

E Effectiveness – does it solve the issue that it was intended to solve?

P Prioritisation – which of your points is the strongest and why. Be specific about the context of the question

S Scale or Magnitude – where people are effected how strong is the effect?

Assessment

• You are looking to get level 5. Which for the 20 mark question means the following.

Level Marks Descriptor

Level 1 1-11 Identification of points only

Level 2 12-17 Consideration of one factor with one evaluation point, or two points and no evaluation

Level 3 18-21 Consideration of two factors with one evaluation point, or three points and no evaluation

Level 4 22-25 Consideration of recent globalisation and two other factors with one evaluation point.

Level 5 26-30 Consideration of recent globalisation and two other factors with at least two evaluation points.

Hand In details

Work to be word processer not handwritten

Please hand in work on Friday 19th to the box outside room 76.

If you are late submitting work then one grade will be deducted per day of lateness unless extension is agreed beforehand.

How to answer

• Note: The Operator (Global Imbalances) acts on the Operand (Growth).

• So all your points have to be linked from Global Imbalances to Growth.

Global Imbalances

Growth

THE QUESTION

Dealing with the Question

Global Imbalances

Growth• The path you describe is your analysis.

• The complexity and challenges along the way are the evaluation.

• The evidence to support your argument is your application

The world is getting more connected, what does that mean?

The World

GDP per capita

Income levels

Stephen S Roach – Global Labour Arbitrage. Exploiting variable labour rates leads to global imbalances.

Producers becoming tertiary workers

Savings rates

Current Accounts by Country

National debt as a percentage of GDP - 2009

Foreign currency reserves minus external debt

Which way should the Dollar go against the Yuan?

Number of Yuan per Dollar

Time

As more dollars are sold to buy Chinese goods the dollar should depreciate, balancing the terms of trade.

Now ya’ll gotta buy ya’ll stuff

from America like

good citizens.

Dollar vs Yuan

Black swans and monsters

Where is it coming from?

• Territory size shows the proportion of all shipping containers being loaded and unloaded there.

Toy Exports

Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net exports of toys (in US$) that come from there.

Toy Exports

Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net exports of toys (in US$) that come from there.

Population size

Net migration

• Territory size shows the relative levels of net immigration in all territories (immigration less emigration).

Net Tourism

"For my part, I travel not to go anywhere, but to go. I travel for travel’s sake. The great affair is to move." Robert Louis Stevenson, 1879

Its not all one way!

Foreign Direct Investment

Business Exports

• "... management consultants are part of the day to day fabric of leading edge world class companies. The more they are used, the more invaluable and acceptable their work becomes." Brian O'Rorke, 1996

Finance And Insurance Net Exports

• "Edward Lloyd opened a coffee shop on Tower Street in London in 1688, and that one turned into Lloyds of London, insuring the world." Jack Schofield, 2006

Sources

• Wikipedia

• IMF

• WorldMapper

• CIA WorldFactbook