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OKMC Whriceg Top`r Q`rc`s

Arcscs, Cfmoboea`s, oek Cekco

]oncv Iufor oek

Toeion Zoslcslt

Eh. =7=Foral =4??

Oscoe K`v`bhpf`et Moei Cestctut`

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[l` Whriceg Top`r s`rc`s cs o ahetceuotche hj tl` jhrf`rby eof`k Kcsaussche Top`r s`rc`s9tl` eufm`rceg hj tl` pop`rs ahetceu`k wctlhut cet`rruptche hr aloeg`. OKMCs whricegpop`rs r`jb`at cectcob ck`os he o thpca oek or` phst`k hebce` jhr kcsaussche. OKMC `eahurog`sr`ok`rs th phst tl`cr ahff`ets he tl` foce pog` jhr `oal whriceg pop`r (gcv`e ce tl`actotche m`bhw). Qhf` whriceg pop`rs foy k`v`bhp ceth htl`r jhrfs hj pumbcaotche.

Qugg`st`k actotche>

Iufor, ]., oek T. Zoslcslt. =4??. Arcscs, Cfmoboea`s, oek Cekco. OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7=.[hiyh> Oscoe K`v`bhpf`et Moei Cestctut`. Ovocbomb`> lttp>//www.okmc.hrg/whriceg-pop`r/=4??/41/=3/;;37.arcscs.cfmoboea`s.cekco/

Tb`os` ahetoat tl` outlhr(s) jhr cejhrfotche omhut tlcs pop`r.

]oncv Iufor cs kcr`athr hj tl` Cekcoe Ahueacb jhr ]`s`oral he Cet`reotcheob @ahehfca]`botches (CA]C@]) ce E`w K`blc, Cekco. Toeion Zoslcslt cs o r`s`oral osshacot` otCA]C@].

[l` vc`ws `xpr`ss`k ce tlcs pop`r or` tl` vc`ws hj tl` outlhrs oek kh eht e`a`ssorcby

r`jb`at tl` vc`ws hr phbcac`s hj OKMC, tl` Oscoe K`v`bhpf`et Moei (OKM), cts Mhork hjKcr`athrs, hr tl` ghv`ref`ets tl`y r`pr`s`et. OKMC kh`s eht guoroet`` tl` oaauroay hjtl` koto ceabuk`k ce tlcs pop`r oek oaa`pts eh r`sphescmcbcty jhr oey ahes`qu`ea`s hjtl`cr us`. [`rfcehbhgy us`k foy eht e`a`ssorcby m` ahescst`et wctl OKM hjjcacob t`rfs.

Oscoe K`v`bhpf`et Moei Cestctut`Iosufcgos`ic Mucbkceg

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

Omstroa t

Wctl tl` r`vcvob hj gbhmob `ahehfy, tl` cssu`s hj `xct phbcac`s oek r`moboeaceg gbhmobgrhwtl lov` toi`e a`et`r stog` ce phbcay kcsaussches. Qcea` foey `f`rgceg Oscoe`ahehfc`s pr`s`etby lov` borg` aurr`et oaahuet surpbus`s, tl` cssu` hj r`moboeaceg lossp`acob scgecjcaoea` jhr Osco. Wlcb` Cekco, bci` htl`r Oscoe `ahehfc`s, sujj`r`k heby oecekcr`at cfpoat jrhf tl` jceoeacob arcscs, cts aurr`et phbcay alobb`eg`s opp`or th m` kcjj`r`etjrhf tlhs` joaceg tl` T`hpb`s ]`pumbca hj Alceo (T]A) oek htl`r @ost Oscoe `ahehfc`s,wlcal lov` r`bc`k l`ovcby he `xt`reob k`foek oek oaa`ss th tl` PQ fori`t jhr tl`cr grhwtlfhf`etuf. Wctl o e`gotcv` ahetrcmutche hj e`t `xphrts th grhss khf`stca prhkuat grhwtlobheg wctl jhr`cge `xaloeg` r`s`rv`s, wlcal ofhuet th o f`r` he`-ecetl hj tl` T]As, tl`cssu` hj [roes-Toacjca r`moboeaceg hj `ahehfca grhwtl kh`s eht lov` tl` sof` aheehtotchesjhr Cekco os ct kh`s jhr htl`r @ost Oscoe `ahehfc`s. Lhw`v`r, tlcs pop`r orgu`s tlot, gcv`ects borg` khf`stca fori`t, Cekco ahubk l`bp htl`r @ost Oscoe `ahehfc`s ce tl`cr `jjhrts thoalc`v` gr`ot`r `xphrt kcv`rscjcaotche oek r`moboeaceg hj grhwtl.

N@B Abosscjcaotche> G4?, @::, J?0

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

Ahet`ets

?. Cetrhkuatche .................................................................................................................... 1

=.

Cfpoat hj tl` Arcscs he tl` Cekcoe @ahehfy oek tl` ]hb` hj tl` Q`rvca`s Q`athr ........... ;

1. Thbcay ]`sphes`s th tl` Arcscs ....................................................................................... 3

1.? Jcsaob Qtcfubus .................................................................................................. 31.= Fhe`tory Thbcay ]`sphes` ............................................................................... 3

;. Qlhrt-[`rf Grhwtl Hutbhhi ......................................................................................... ?4

0. Oss`ssf`et hj tl` Thbcay ]`sphes`s oek Cssu`s hj @xct Thbcay ................................... ?1

:. Oscoe @ahehfca Cet`grotche oek Cekcos Tht`etcob ]hb` ................................................. ?;

7. Cekco> O Kcjj`r`et Grhwtl Fhk`b ................................................................................... ?7

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

1

?. CE[]HKPA[CHE

Ojt`r o y`or hj slorp ahetroatche, okvoea`k `ahehfc`s lov` slhwe shf` scges hj`ahehfca r`vcvob. O mhhf ce Pect`k Qtot`s (PQ) r`tocb sob`s ce bot` =443, ahupb`k wctlphsctcv` grhss khf`stca prhkuat (GKT) grhwtl ce Nopoe, G`rfoey, oek Jroea` ce tl`

s`ahek lobj hj =443oek strheg grhwtl ce tl` jhurtl quort`r hj =443 oek tl` jcrst quort`rhj =4?4 ce tl` PQcs cekcaotcv` hj tl` arcscs lovceg mhtthf`k hut, oek o r`ahv`ry m`ceghe cts woy. [l`s` phsctcv` k`v`bhpf`ets lov` prhvck`k gr`ot r`bc`j th phbcay foi`rsoarhss tl` gbhm` wlh cfpb`f`et`k tl` borg`st ahhrkceot`k jcsaob stcfubus ce lcsthry, oeko bcquckcty cejusche th pr`v`et tl` r`a`ssche jrhf m`ahfceg o k`pr`ssche. [loeijubby, tl`ysuaa``k`k, k`spct` shf` ahea`res tlot wctl tl` top`rceg hjj hj tl` stcfubus ce fck-=4?4,PQ `ahehfca grhwtl ahubk w`oi`e scgecjcaoetby oek pubb tl` gbhmob `ahehfy khwe wctlct. [l` phsscmcbcty hj o khumb`-kcp r`a`ssche, stogeotceg ue`fpbhyf`et b`v`bs, oek j`orshj shv`r`cge k`joubts ce @urhp` lov` jhra`k phbcay foi`rs th ahesck`r cssu`s sual oslhw oek wl`e th rhbb moai tl` jcsaob stcfubus oek htl`r f`osur`s e``k`k th oalc`v` ofhr` moboea`k gbhmob `ahehfca grhwtl ce tl` jutur`. Wctl oe ues`ttb`k k`mot` he tl`bci`by slop` hj tl` r`ahv`ry, tl` cssu` hj`xct phbcay los r`a`etby goce`k puralos` ofheg

phbcay kcsaussches ce fotur` `ahehfc`s.?

Obtlhugl Cekco, bci` htl`r Oscoe `ahehfc`s, sujj`r`k heby oe cekcr`at cfpoat jrhf tl`gbhmob jceoeacob arcscs, cts aurr`et phbcay alobb`eg`s opp`or th m` kcjj`r`et jrhf tlhs`joaceg tl` T`hpb`s ]`pumbca hj Alceo (T]A) oek htl`r @ost Oscoe `ahehfc`s, wlcallov` r`bc`k l`ovcby he `xt`reob k`foek oek oaa`ss th tl` PQ fori`t jhr tl`cr grhwtlfhf`etuf. Wctl o e`gotcv` ahetrcmutche hj e`t `xphrts th GKT grhwtl (s`` [omb` =)obheg wctl jhr`cge `xaloeg` r`s`rv`s, wlcal or` o f`r` he`-ecetl hj tl` T]As, tl`cssu` hj [roes-poacjca r`moboeaceg hj `ahehfca grhwtl kh`s eht lov` tl` sof`aheehtotches jhr Cekco os ct fcglt jhr htl`r @ost Oscoe `ahehfc`s. Lhw`v`r, gcv`e Cekcosborg` khf`stca fori`t, Cekco ahubk l`bp htl`r @ost Oscoe `ahehfc`s ce tl`cr `jjhrts thoalc`v` gr`ot`r `xphrt kcv`rscjcaotche oek r`moboeaceg hj grhwtl. Ogocest tlcs moaikrhp,tlcs pop`r oeobyz`s tl` cfpoat hj tl` arcscs he Cekco oek `xofce`s cts pht`etcob rhb` cer`moboeaceg gbhmob `ahehfca grhwtl.

[l` pop`r cs kcvck`k ceth `cglt s`atches. Ojt`r sufforczceg tl` cfpoat hj tl` arcscs he tl`Cekcoe `ahehfy oek rhb` hj tl` s`rvca`s s`athr ce Q`atche =, Q`atche 1 kcsauss`s tl`eotur` hj Cekcos phbcay r`sphes` th tl` arcscs. Q`atche ; kcsauss`s tl` bci`by prhsp`ats hj`ahehfca r`ahv`ry ce Cekco, wlcb` Q`atche 0 k`obs wctl tl` cssu`s hj `xct phbcay. Q`atche :gcv`s o mrc`j hutbce` hj tl` Cekcoe grhwtl fhk`b oek he tlot moscs `xofce`s Cekcospht`etcob rhb` ce [roes-Toacjca r`moboeaceg (Q`atche 7). Jceobby, ce Q`atche

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

;

=. CFTOA[ HJ [L@ A]CQCQ HE [L@ CEKCOE @AHEHFSOEK [L@ ]HB@ HJ [L@ Q@]ZCA@Q Q@A[H]

[l` Cekcoe `ahehfy bhhi`k th m` r`botcv`by cesubot`k jrhf tl` gbhmob jceoeacob arcscs tlotstort`k ce Ougust =447 wl`e tl` sum-prcf` fhrtgog` arcscs jcrst surjoa`k ce tl` PQ. Ce

joat, tl` ]`s`rv` Moei hj Cekco (]MC) wos rocsceg cet`r`st rot`s uetcb Ougust =44< wctltl` `xpbcact hmn`atcv` hj mrcegceg khwe tl` GKT grhwtl rot`, wlcal lok vcscmby fhv`komhv` tl` rot` hj pht`etcob hutput grhwtl oek wos ahetrcmutceg th tl` mucbk-up hjcejbotcheory pr`ssur`s.

=

Jhrtueot`by, Cekco, bci` fhst hj tl` `f`rgceg `ahehfc`s, wos buaiy th ovhck tl` jcrstrhuek hj okv`rs` `jj`ats m`aous` cts moeis w`r` eht hv`rby `xphs`k th sum-prcf`b`ekceg. Heby he` hj tl` borg`r prcvot` s`athr moeis, tl` CACAC (jhrf`rby tl` CekustrcobAr`kct oek Cev`stf`et Ahrphrotche hj Cekco), wos portby `xphs`k, mut ct obsh foeog`k thovhck o arcscs m`aous` hj cts strheg moboea` sl``t oek tcf`by oatche my tl` ghv`ref`et.[l` moeiceg s`athr os o wlhb` r`foce`k jceoeacobby shuek. Ce joat, kurceg tl` tlcrkquort`r hj JS=44 (c) tl` cff`kcot` hr kcr`at cfpoat he cts jceoeacobs`athr oek (cc) tl` cekcr`at cfpoat he `ahehfca oatcvctc`s.

Lhw`v`r, tl` cekcr`at cfpoat hr tl` s`ahek rhuek cfpoat hj tl` arcscs ojj`at`k Cekco quct`scgecjcaoetby. [l` bcquckcty squ``z` ce gbhmob fori`ts jhbbhwceg tl` ahbbops` hj B`lfoeMrhtl`rs lok s`rchus cfpbcaotches jhr Cekco> ct eht heby b`k th fosscv` hutjbhws hj jhr`cgecestctutcheob cev`stf`et (JCC) mut obsh ahfp`bb`k Cekcoe moeis oek ahrphrotches th slcjttl`cr ar`kct k`foek jrhf `xt`reob shura`s th tl` khf`stca moeiceg s`athr. [l`s` `v`etsput ahesck`romb` pr`ssur` he bcquckcty ce tl` khf`stca fori`t oek ahes`qu`etby

prhvhi`k o ar`kct arueal. [lcs ar`kct arueal, ahupb`k wctl o g`e`rob bhss hj ahejck`ea`,cear`os`k tl` rcsi ov`rsche hj Cekcoe moeis, wlcal `v`etuobby lurt ar`kct `xpoesche ce tl`khf`stca fori`t.

He tl` thp hj tlot, gcv`e tl` r`a`sscheory ahekctches ce foey okvoea`k `ahehfc`s, tl`k`foek jhr Cekcos `xphrts ce cts fonhr fori`ts obfhst ahbbops`k. F`raloekcs` `xphrtsslruei my fhr` tloe ?7% jrhf Hathm`r =44< th Foy =443. Bci`wcs`, `xphrts hj s`rvca`sobsh joa`k o st``p khweture. Kurceg tl` tlcrk quort`r hj JS=44

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0

[l` cfpoat hj tl` gbhmob arcscs he tl` r`ob `ahehfy m`aof` `v`e fhr` `vck`et ce tl`s`ahek lobj hj JS=44

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

:

Ce ahetrost, tl` k`p`ek`ea` hj s`rvca`s s`athr he jhr`cge trok`-r`bot`k s`rvca`s ce Cekcocs fual bhw`r, ot orhuek :=%.

1

Nust os ce htl`r `f`rgceg `ahehfc`s, foeujoaturceg mhr` tl` r`ob mruet hj tl` arcscs ceCekco. Ce tl` woi` hj o k`abce` ce khf`stca oek `xphrt k`foek, tl` foeujoaturceg s`athrwcte`ss`k o ahetroatche hj 4.=0% ce tl` s`ahek lobj hj JS=44

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

7

[omb` 1> Ahfphsc tche h j GKT oek Hutwork Hrc`etotche

Ahfphsctche hj GKT (=44:) [rok` % hjGKT

F`raloekcs`[rok` % hj GKT

Q`rvca`s [rok`% hj GKTOgr c Ceku str y Q`rvc a`s

T]A ??.7? ;

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

_uort`rb y @stcfot`s hj GKT Grhwtl (%)

=447-=44< =44

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

3

1. THBCAS ]@QTHEQ@Q [H [L@ A]CQCQ

1.? Jcsaob Qtcfubus

[l` Cekcoe `ahehfy r`a`cv`k o fonhr jcsaob stcfubus os `orby os J`mruory =44

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

?4

Jcgur` => Fhe`tory Thbcay Aloeg`s, Foral =44; tlrhugl Noeuory =4?4

4

?

=

1

;

0

:

7

Cekcos Jhr`cge Aopctob Cejbhws oek Jhr`cge @xaloeg` ]`s rv`s(PQ$ fcbbche)

S`or Kcr`atCev`stf`et

Thrtjhbchcev`stf`et

[htob (C+CC) Jhr`cge @xaloeg`]`s`rv`s

?334-3? 37 : ?41 0,

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

?3

grhwtl plos` stort`k, ct ahubk eht lov` m``e sustoce`k wctlhut tl` fonhr struaturob r`jhrfsuek`rtoi`e my tl` Eoroscflo ]oh ghv`ref`et jrhf ?33? th ?330. [l`s` r`jhrfsscgecjcaoetby cear`os`k Cekco's hp`ee`ss th tl` gbhmob `ahehfy oek r`kua`k tl` b`v`b hjghv`ref`et ahetrhbs oek bca`es`s, wlcal lov` ab`orby m`ahf` kysjueatcheob (Tura`bb =447,Toeogorcyo =44

8/7/2019 Crisis, Imbalances, and India

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OKMC Whriceg Top`r =7= Iufor oek Zoslcslt

=4

Jcgur` :> Khf`stca Qovcegs oek Cev`stf`et ]ot`

4

0

?4

?0

=4

=0

14

10

;4

;0

?304-0?

?301-0;

?30:-07

?303-:4

?3:=-:1

?3:0-::

?3: