weekly review and outlook. weekly review week commencing 31/11/15
TRANSCRIPT
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Weekly Review and Outlook
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Weekly Reviewweek commencing 31/11/15
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Sell Euro
Last Week’s Key Themes
Sell NZD
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Last Week’s News Events
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Last Week’s News Events
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Last Week’s News Events
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EURUSD D1
entry and current stop
initial stop
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GBPNZD D1
entry
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GBPNZD D1
entry
stop
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Weekly Review
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Weekly Review
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Weekly Outlookweek commencing 7/12/15
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USDX D1Euro strength dominates.
USDX D1
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WTI D1
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S&P500
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S&P500
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RISK ON
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This Week’s News Events
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This Week’s News Events
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Currency SummaryUSDThe USD is the strongest currency in the long term. Fed holds door open for December hike. Markets say 79% chance of hike in Dec. EURBearish due to QE. Portugal hovering like a bad smell. Draghi disappoints markets hugely on 3/12. Euro surges. Still fundamentally weak, but positive sentiment may last for some time.
GBPStrong. Rate increase expected mid 2016. GBP gets caught up in USD weakness and is sold off. Carney says wage growth insufficient to propel inflation to 2%. Lower inflation now forecast by BoE. Institutions see rate hike delay from Q1 to Q3 2016. Earnings missed in Nov.
NZDWeak. More rate reductions expected. RBNZ say recent NZD appreciation dampening inflation, making hike more likely. Markets say 50% chance of rate reduction in Dec.
CADWeak. Heavily correlated to WTI crude oil price.
JPYWeak due to massive QE. All eyes on oil price now to bring inflation up to 2% target in H2 2016. Kuroda says current policy sufficient. Now alluding to weakness in CPI.
CHFWeak due to negative interest rates. Swiss central bank often intervenes to weaken the currency. I have never traded this currency and probably never will. May have to reduce interest rates to deal with Euro strength. Next mtg 10/12. AUDNeutral. Central bank dovish at Aug rate announcement seeing no need for more rate reduction. RBA’s Stevens remains confident all is on track. Stevens remains neutral but says any change will be to reduce interest rates.Great employment nos in Nov lessen any chance of rate reduction. Neutral
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GBPNZD D1
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GBPCAD D1
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USDCHF D1
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Euro sentimentNZD rate decision (sell NZD)CHF rate decisionCaution
This Week’s Key Themes