1

Weekly Market Update 1-24-18

©2018·PhoenixCapitalResearch,PhoenixCapitalManagementInc.AllRightsReserved.Protectedbycopyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be usedpursuanttothesubscriptionagreementandanyreproduction,copying,orredistribution(electronicorotherwise, including on theworld wideweb), inwhole or in part, is strictly prohibited without theexpresswrittenpermissionofPhoenixCapitalManagementInc.·AllRightsReserved.

Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

3

TRACK RECORD: RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

Toviewthefulltrackrecordofallclosedpositionsrunningbacktoearly-2015,visit:http://phoenixcapitalresearch.com/privatewealthadvisory/track-record/Toviewourcurrentopenpositions,scrolltothebottomofthisissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

FreeportMcMoRan FCX 10/4/17 $14.53 12/13/17 $16.32 12%Russell2000ETF(SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $135.37 12/21/17 $153.75 -14%HomebuilderETF XHB 8/10/17 $37.94 12/21/17 $44.26 -17%OilServices OIH 11/30/17 $24.12 12/22/17 $25.86 7%MetalsandMiningETF XME 12/6/17 $31.83 12/22/17 $35.25 11% PioneerNaturalResources PXD 6/15/17 $158.02 12/27/17 $171.12 8% Halliburton HAL 10/11/17 $45.37 12/27/17 $48.01 6% BiotechETF IBB 11/15/17 $102.08 1/2/18 $108.87 7% WheatonPreciousMetals WPM 10/5/16 $20.83 1/2/18 $22.42 8% HelixEnergySolutions HLX 10/11/17 $7.75 1/9/18 $8.29 7% ExxonMobil XOM 12/13/17 $83.12 1/9/18 $87.08 5% EnterpriseProductsPartners EPD 8/10/17 $26.08 1/9/18 $28.16 8%

DBCommodityETF DBC 9/13/17 $15.26 1/12/18 $16.97 11% GoldMinerETF GDX 9/20/17 $23.50 1/17/18 $24.44 4% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 9/20/17 $34.11 1/17/18 $35.67 5%

4

1

Twomajoritemshitinthelast24hours.Andbothofthempointtothesameissue.

1) TheheadoftheBankofJapan(BoJ)HaruhikoKurodaimpliedpublicly,thattheBOJdoesn’tvaluetheYen.

2) UStreasurySecretarySteveMnuchintrashedthe$USDattheDavoseconomicforum.Regarding#1,here’sthekeyquote:

Inhisnewsconference,Kurodareiteratedthatchangestothebond-buyingoperationsdon’timplyshiftstoitspolicystance,addingthattheBOJ’sprimaryobjectiveistheyieldcurveonJapanesegovernmentbonds,notthevolumeofitsassetpurchases.Kurodaalsosuggestedtheyen’srecentmovemayhaveresultedfrombroaddollarweakness,particularlyagainsttheeuro.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-23/boj-keeps-stimulus-unchanged-maintains-inflation-outlook

HereistheheadoftheBoJstatingthatthe“volumeofitsassetpurchases”(read:theamountofYenitprintstobuyassetsviaQE)isallbutirrelevantprovidedJapanesegovernmentbondyieldsareattheBoJ’starget.Inthesimplestofterms,theheadofamajorcentralbankadmittedthathedoesn’tcarehowmuchcurrencyheprints.It’ssimplyastonishing.Remember,we’renottalkingaboutarandomeconomistatafinancialfirm…thisistheHEADofoneoftheMAJORCentralBanksstatingthis.Again,it’sincredible.Regarding#2,earliertodayUSTreasurySecretarySteveMnuchinstatedthefollowing:

"Obviouslyaweakerdollarisgoodforusasitrelatestotradeandopportunities,”MnuchintoldreportersinDavos.Thecurrency’sshorttermvalueis"notaconcernofoursatall,”hesaid.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-24/mnuchin-says-weaker-dollar-is-good-for-u-s-due-to-trade

Weekly Market Update (1-24-18)

5

2

Toprovidesomeperspectivehere,theUSDollarhadalreadystageditsworststarttoayearsince1987BEFOREMnuchin’scomments.Giventhepaceofthecollapse,onewouldhavethoughtMnuchinwouldprovidesomekindofsupportfortheUScurrency!

Again,thesearenotthesortsofstatementsoneexpectsfromindividualsattheselevelsofGovernment/finance.Iwanttobeclearhere…it’snotthatKurodanorMnuchinsaidanythingthatwasincorrect…it’sthatCentralBankersandTreasurySecretariesareusuallynotthisexplicitwhenitcomestotrashingtheircurrencies!Regardless,thekeyitemhereisthatwe’vehadtwoofthemostimportantfinancialfiguresintheworldadmittingthatcurrencydevaluationisthenameofthegamegoingforward.Thistiesinwithmyprimarytheme:inflationishere,andCentralBankerswantMOREofit.However,thispresentsuswithaproblem.IfeveryCentralBankisattemptingtodevalueitscurrency,inevitablytheywillbeworkingagainsteachother.Inafiatworldinwhichcurrenciestradeagainstoneanotherwithnobacking,anydropbyonecurrencywillhaveacontraryeffectonothers.

6

3

Onthatnote,today’sdropinthe$USDduetoMnuchin’sstatementtriggeredasharprallyintheYenandtheEuro…adevelopmentthatneithertheBoJ,northeEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)willbetoopleasedabout.

7

4

Indeed,thesemovestriggeredanastyselloffinGermanandJapanesestocks.

However,thatproblemspalesincomparisontowhatTreasurySecretaryMnuchin’sstatementsdidtobondprices.AcrosstheentireTreasurycomplex,bondpricesCOLLAPSEDtoday.

8

5

InfightingbetweenCentralBanksisaproblem,butnotonethatleadstoimmediatesystemicrisk.Incontrast,foraworldinwhichGlobalDebttoGDPisnorthof300%andsome$60trillionindebtwasissuedbasedonabubbleinbonds,acollapseinbondpricesISasystemicproblem.

9

6

Indeed,themarketsquicklyrealizedwhatMnuchindidwasamassivemistake.Theyieldonthe10-YearTreasuryroaredhigher.Yieldswerealreadyup9%inJanuary(meaningthecostofissuingdebtfortheUSis10%moreexpensive).I’vebeentrackingthischartforawhile.It’saseriousproblemfortheUSdebtbubble.Andit’sonlygettingworse.

Thisaloneiscauseforconcern.Butwearegettingasimilardevelopmentinthelong-endoftheTreasurycurve.Thelong-termTreasuryETFisnow4.5%offitsrecenthighsandformingtherightshoulderofamassiveHeadandShoulderspattern.Itisjusthangingontosupport(blueline).Butifthatbreaksit’saveryshortwaystotheneckline(redline).

10

7

Putsimply,bondyieldsarerisingonboththeshortandlongendoftheyieldcurve.Thisisseriousstuff.I’vebeenwarningwe’dexperienceaninflationaryshockthisyear.ButitiscomingfasterthanIexpected.Indeed,theTIP:TLTratiohasnowofficiallybrokenoutofits10-yeardeflationarychannel.Ifthisdoesn’treverserightnowthentheinflationaryshockiscomingNOW,notlater.

11

8

Theflipsideofallofthisisthatthe$USDsimplycannotcatchabidhere.BelowiswhatIcallthe$USD“channelofdeath.”

12

9

Ifthisbottomlineofsupport(bottomblueline)doesn’thold,we’regoingtothemid’80sNOW.

ThisisanEXTREMELYprecarioussituation.Asyouknow,Ithoughtthe$USDwouldbouncepriortothis.TheUScurrencywasalreadysharplyoversoldBEFOREMnuchin’sstatementstoday.Nowit’sevenMOREseverelyoversold.ThisiscomingatthesametimewhenmostinflationaryhedgesofSEVERELYoverbought.AndwhileIthinkGold,Silver,andthelikewillallbeMUCHhigherinthemid-tolong-term(3+monthsfromnow),Iremainveryconcernedthatallofthemareprimedforasignificantpullbackhere.Forinstance,duringinflationarybreakouts,SilvertypicallyleadsGold.Rightnow,theexactoppositeishappening.

13

10

However,ontheflipside,theGoldMinerstoGoldratiohasbrokenoutofamassivetrianglepattern.ThissuggeststhattheinflationaryshockiscomingNOW.

14

11

Again,thereisalotofconfusionintheinflationaryhedgesspace.Someassetsaresuggestingtheinflationaryshockiscomingnow,othersaresuggestingthatwemightgetasharpcorrection.Perhapsthesinglemostimportantinvestingadageis“whenindoubt,stayout.”Rightnow,thereistoomuchconfusioninthemarketsforustoputmorecapitaltowork.Withthatinmind,we’renottakinganynewpositionsthisweek.I’dratherwatchthemarketsoverthenextfewdaystodeterminewhatthenextstepis.Thegoodnewsisthatwe’realreadywellpositionedforwhicheveroutcomehits.Ifinflationspikesnow,wehaveplentyofexposureviaourpreciousmetalspositionsandourlong-termInflationPortfolio.Conversely,ifthecorrectionininflationaryassetsthatI’vebeenforecastinghits,wehaveourhedgesinplace.(USOandZSL)Sowe’regoodtogoeitherway.There’snoneedtorushintoanynewpositions.Thisconcludesthisweek’smarketupdateforPrivateWealthAdvisory.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Butbarringanynewdevelopmentsyou’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourlongermonthlyissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Untilthen…

GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

15

OPEN POSITIONS

STOCKS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon1/24/18.Gainsincludedividends

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $13.93 -10% AgriculturalCommoditiesETF RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 $6.14

-5%

PublicStorage PSA 3/23/17 $225.92 $194.96 -12% EnergyTransferPartners ETP 8/2/17 $21.00 $20.31 -1%

LONG-TERM INFLATION PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

CURRENTPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

CopperMinersETF COPX 12/21/17 $26.55 $28.74 8%

ArcelorMittal MT 12/21/17 $32.77 $36.12 10%

CorsaCoal CRSXF 12/21/17 $1.20 $1.61 34%

DiamondOffshoreDrilling DO 1/3/18 $19.77 $19.00 -4%

UraniumETF URA 1/17/18 $14.93 $14.84 -1%

16

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,357.00 21% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $17.57 8%

FirstMajesticSilver*** AG 5/12/17 $7.91 $7.09 -10%

KlondexMines KLDX 9/20/17 $3.61 $2.29 -37%

WesdomeGoldMines WDO.TO 9/20/17 $2.21 $2.15 -3%

Iamgold IAG 9/28/17 $6.40 $6.36 -1%

SilverMiningETF SIL 10/4/17 $33.96 $33.90 0% SilverMiningJuniorsETF SILJ 10/4/17 $12.22 $12.25 0%

PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon1/24/18.Gainsincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97***Averagepriceof$7.11and$8.70

17

SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO

CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

CURRENTPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $114.05 $119.42 5%

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon1/24/18.Gainsincludedividends

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $33.38 -43% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $33.92 -57% Apple(SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $140.92 $174.22 -24% Facebook FB 5/31/17 $151.63 $186.55 -23% Alphabet GOOGL 5/31/17 $987.72 $1,171.29 -19% UltraShortSilverETF ZSL 1/10/18 $31.27 $29.17 -7% UltraShortOilETF SCO 1/17/18 $21.72 $20.29 -7%