weekly market report...oct 30, 2019 · jvd commodities pty (ltd) weekly market report 2019-10-30...

JVD Commodities Pty (Ltd) Weekly Market report 2019-10-30

The information in this document is the view of the author and should not be used for trading purposes.

Weekly Market Report

30 October 2019



USD/ZAR Exchange rate:

The Rand is currently quoted at R14.62 per US Dollar, 38 cents stronger in the last 2 weeks. The Rand has been bolstered by a softer Dollar as well as some optimism regarding the US and China trade negotiations. The Rand is now trading at a crucial long-term support level. The Rand will be driven by domestic news as seen in trading yesterday afternoon when the unemployment rate was increased to 29.1%. The government’s plans for Eskom also didn’t give a lot of clarity regarding the restructuring of Eskom’s debt but rather laid out a path going forward. The Rand also initially lost some ground following the news. All eyes however will be on Fincance Minister Tito Mboweni’s medium term budget which is due to be delivered today after which Moody’s will make a decision on our credit rating on 1 November 2019.



Soya bean meal:

Soya bean meal for Dec 2019 is currently trading at 303.6 dollars per short down 4.1 dollars in the last 2 weeks. Meal continues to trade in a tight band with no real big moves. News that supported the market initially was that China will buy US meal with no tariffs and in return tariffs will be exempted on some Chinese exports. This is however not enough to provide real support as ample world supplies are keeping prices subdued. I expect trading to remain range bound between all the long-term moving averages. The losses on meal are however being offset buy higher Argentine premiums at this stage. Jan 2020 is trading at 306.2



Argentine soya bean meal premiums:

Arg Premiums Sellers Buyers change sellers change buyers

Nov No Sellers -24 - 8

Dec No Sellers -23 - 7

May -18 -23 - -

* Down * Up



Local Meal Price:

Note: Prices are indicative and are subject to final confirmation.

Date: 2019/10/30 Nov-19 5664

Dec-19 5664

USD/ZAR 14,62 Jan-20 5747

Feb-20 5820

Inco Term: fca reef Mar-20 5899

Packaging: bulk Apr-20 5937

Payment Terms: 14 days from invoice May-20 5973

Subject to final confirmation. Prices excl VAT Jun-20 6066

Soya bean meal prices



Local Market:

Dec-19 Mar-19 Dec 2019 change in last 2 weeks Mar 2020 change in last 2 weeks

White maize 2816 2841 167 115

Yellow Maize 2723 2728 159 116

Wheat 4453 4548 60 63

Sunflower 5556 5587 194 153

Soya 5892 5882 56 2

* Down * Up



Weather:

Source: http://www.stirimeteo.com/2017/03/20/forecast-2-weeks-eu-usa-20-mar-2017/

Notes: The USDA in their weekly crop conditions report indicated that 58% of the US maize crop could be rated as good/excellent which is 3% higher in the last 2 weeks. Crop progress report indicated that 41% of the US maize crop has been harvested which is up from the 30% reported last week and the 5-year average seen at 61% harvested this time of the year. The USDA in their weekly crop conditions report indicated that 54% of the US soybean crop could be rated as good/excellent which is unchanged week/week. Crop progress report indicated that 62% of the US soybean crop has been harvested which is up from the 46% reported last week and the 5-year average seen at 78% harvested this time of the year.

http://www.stirimeteo.com/2017/03/20/forecast-2-weeks-eu-usa-20-mar-2017/



Midwest: The weather forecast calls for rain and snow in the central and eastern Midwest to be unfavourable for harvest during this week. Western areas will be cold and drier, with better harvest conditions. Northern Plains: The Northern Plains will be cold and dry during this week. This will allow for improved harvest conditions. Southern Plains: Southern Plains crop areas have lower temperatures to slow pre-winter wheat development this week. Soil moisture is favourable for development in the south and east-central areas. Western areas are still drier. Brazil: Across Brazil, above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall this week in northern Parana and Mato Grosso will dry out soils and be unfavourable for continued soybean planting and early crop growth. In southern Brazil, heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul will be unfavourable for fieldwork. Rain in southern Parana favours planting and development of full season corn. Argentina: In Argentina, increasing shower activity will help to improve soil moisture for planting and early growth of corn. However, western areas again will be drier.

Source: file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/rmddailyweather%20(21).pdf

Acknowledgement:

SAWB/GRADS/NASS/DTN/AWB/CWB/Intellicast/FNMOC/Unisys/DTN/NOAA/YR/KBWS/Wunderground/TWC/WordPress/WXRisk/Drovers/TWC/AGBoM/weather/Accuweather/spc/NOAA/soybeansandcorn/Windy/agrimoney/agweb/blackseagrain/ec.europa.eu/timeanddate/yr/myweather2/meteox/meteo

blue/intellicast/iweathar



ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TO WXMAPS.ORG GFS= Global Forecast System Available at: http://weatherphotos.co.za/rain_wxmaps_sixdays.html

SA Weather: The weather forecast this morning is very favourable for rain later this week and early the coming weekend. The indicated event in the image above is a combination of tropical moisture and the current passing cold front. At this point, rain is expected in parts of the central and western interior, note images above. Next week Tuesday/Wednesday another event is expected to move into the eastern interior, more rain is expected. The current cold frontal event is cooling down the interior and is expected stick around the next few days. Temperatures are expected cool early mornings with hot to very hot midday conditions.

Source: file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/rmddailyweather%20(21).pdf

Acknowledgement: SAWB/GRADS/NASS/DTN/AWB/CWB/Intellicast/FNMOC/Unisys/DTN/NOAA/YR/KBWS/Wunderground/TWC/WordPress/WXRisk/Drovers/TWC/AGBoM/w

eather/Accuweather/spc/NOAA/soybeansandcorn/Windy/agrimoney/agweb/blackseagrain/ec.europa.eu/timeanddate/yr/myweather2/meteox/meteo blue/intellicast/iweathar

weekly market report...oct 30, 2019 · jvd commodities pty (ltd) weekly market report 2019-10-30...

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