weekly credit update - danskebank.com · for mrel and we therefore do not expect it to bring relief...
TRANSCRIPT
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 2 of this report. www.danskeresearch.com
Investment Research — General Market Conditions
Headlines
Continued muted market sentiment led to further spread widening
European issuance market for corporate hybrids is again gaining momentum
The market continued its muted sentiment from last week. Overall the Itraxx Main and
Crossover widened by some 6bp and 26bp, respectively. The subdued market sentiment
was illustrated by the Bloomberg Commodity Index (consists of prices on 20 different
commodities) which fell to its lowest level in five years. The lower commodity prices
reflect lower growth expectation in China and in the EU but also the appreciation of the
USD. At the same time, lower commodity prices indicate that we should expect inflation
and current interest rates going forward to be at historically low levels. On top of this,
political uncertainty in Greece is again stealing negative headlines, putting further
pressure on market sentiment. The subdued market sentiment was highlighted on
Thursday, when Germany’s 30 year cost of borrowing fell below 1.5% for the first time,
while its 10-year bond yield also hit a record low.
Among commodities the spectacular fall in the crude oil price is especially worth
mentioning. As the world’s most traded commodity a prolonged period with low prices
will have a profound effect on the world economy. Some economists argue that six
months of further pressed oil prices will create economic growth in 2015 in the most oil-
consuming and oil-importing countries of up to one-half to a full percentage-point higher
than forecast, this includes the US, the EU and most countries in Asia.
In the Nordic region we saw issuance by the Swedish cash handling company Loomis
with a 5-year SEK750m printing at Stibor+125bp and a SEK250m printing at MS+125bp.
Norwegian chemical company Yara International was also in the market, printing a 5-
year NOK2.2bn at Nibor+60bp, a 7-year NOK700m at MS+88.6bp and a 10-year
NOK600m at MS+93.6bp.
Following Volvo’s two corporate hybrid bonds last week, German Merck followed by
printing two corporate hybrid bonds (NC6.5) and (NC10). These come after a period with
very little activity in corporate hybrid issuance. French La Mondial and Saint Gobain are
also said on newswires to be considering issuing corporate hybrids in the very near future.
Selected issues
Name Rating Coupon Cur. Tenor Size Spread
Yara International BBB FRN NOK 5Y 2200 MS+60 Yara International Yara International
BBB BBB
2,55% 3,00%
NOK NOK
7Y 10Y
700 600
MS+88,6 MS+93,6
Loomis BBB- FRN SEK 5Y 750 Stibor+125 Loomis BBB- 1,875% SEK 5Y 250 MS+125 Merck (Hybrid) (P)Baa3 2.625% EUR NC6,5Y 1000 MS+254 Merck (Hybrid) Baa3(e) 3.375% EUR NC10 500 MS+265
Source: Danske Bank Markets, Bloomberg. Size in million, ratings are issue ratings from S&P/Moody’s/Fitch
12 December 2014
Analyst Henrik Andresen +45 45 13 3327 [email protected]
Weekly Credit Update
Contents
Market commentary ................................................. 1
Selected charts ............................................................ 3
Recently published research ............................... 5
Official and shadow ratings ................................... 6
iTraxx Europe (investment grade)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
iTraxx Crossover (high yield)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
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Trade recommendations
See the table below for our current trading ideas. We acknowledge that the credit market
in general, and the Nordic market in particular, is not as liquid as other markets, which
may affect the possibility, for example, of shorting a specific bond. Please see our
strategies below, therefore, as ideas and input into your own investment process.
Strategies
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Type Trade Idea
Opened 27 nov 2014
Start spread 67
Opened 25 nov 2014
Start spread 686
Opened 19 nov 2014
Start spread 450
Opened 18 nov 2014
Start spread 2
Opened 13 nov 2014
Start spread 115
Opened 24 okt 2014
Start spread 126
Opened 20 okt 2014
Start spread 310
Opened 25 sep 2013
Start spread 21
Outright VLVY' 17 or VLVY'19 We see the VLVY cash curve at attractively valued and an (uncertain) downgrade is more than priced in to spreads
Outright NYNAAB '18 NYNAAB '18's, which we see as 'B+' indicatively trade way too cheap relative to the industrial 'B+' curve
Curve spread Swith from STENA '19 to
STENA '20
Stena 2020 cheap compared with overall Stena credit curve and the Stena 2019 bond.
Outright COMHSS '19 COMHSS '19 looks cheap compared to other rated and unrated issues in SEK. Trades like a B+, but is officially rated BB-
Curve spread Switch from SKFBSS '19 to
SKFBSS '18 or '20
SKF’s 2020s and 2018s offer attractive value relative to the rating (‘BBB+’ NO and ‘Baa1’ S) Downgrade seems priced in already
Outright SAABAB '19 Trading wider than the ‘BBB+’ shadow rating would imply
Asset allocation Buy iTraxx Main Sell iTraxx
Xover
IG compression of higher magnitude than HY, due to ECB buying
Sector spread Switch from VLVY '19 to
METSO '19
Metso trading wider than ‘BBB’ rating suggests. Metso 19s offer substantial pick-up to Volvo’s 19s (neg outlook).
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Selected charts
iTraxx (Europe) vs CDX (US) Investment grade corporate yields
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Nordic corporates vs iTraxx Nordic banks 5Y CDS spreads
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Corporate BBB bond yield vs EuroSTOXX dividend yield 3M Libor OIS spreads
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
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Financials spread vs non-financials (Industrials), A-rated
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Europe fund flows Sweden fund flows Norway fund flows
Source: Macrobond Financials Source: Macrobond Financials Source: Macrobond Financials
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Recently published research
Banks: MREL is not going to cure the headache caused by TLAC - Credit Update
EBA has released a consultation paper on MREL (Minimum Requirement for Eligible
Liabilities). Unfortunately it did not provide clarity on which instruments will be eligible
for MREL and we therefore do not expect it to bring relief to the Tier-2 market following
the proposed TLAC (Total Loss Absorbing Capacity) three weeks ago.
Stena Q3 14 - Credit Update
Stena delivered a decent Q3 14 with a healthy 8% increase in EBITDA y/y. Debt metrics
weakened moderately due to explainable factors. We expect moderately stronger cash
flows and a stronger liquidity profile over the coming years. We continue to believe that
Stena is well anchored in the BB corporate credit rating category. The bonds and CDSs
are priced attractively. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Sognekraft - Issuer Profile
Sognekraft is a Norwegian utility based in the western part of Norway. It is a local player,
with some 575GWh of annual production based on hydropower capacity. The group has
88 employees and operates some 1,800km of power distribution networks and supplies
around 350GWh of electricity to residential and business clients. We assign a ‘BBB-’
stand-alone indicative rating to Sognekraft. This is based on our view of Sognekraft’s
business risk being ‘satisfactory’ and its financial risk being ‘significant’. We add one
notch due to our assumption of owner support, landing at an indicative issuer and issue
rating of ‘BBB‘.
Heimstaden Q3 14 – Credit update
Heimstaden presented a stable performance in Q3, with 5% growth in the operating net
result on a like-for-like basis. At end September, Heimstaden's gross loan-to-value ratio
was a sound 57%. As the company has recently acquired three property portfolios,
leverage is set to rise in the coming quarters. We maintain our view of the company as a
‘BB' credit with stable outlook, with the bonds one notch lower at ‘BB-'. This credit view
assumes that the company pursues a disciplined M&A strategy, with a loan-to-value ratio
below 65% and an interest coverage around 1.5x.
Credit Update - Stena Q3 14 investor call
We participated in Stena's Q3 14 investor conference call yesterday. We expect slightly
stronger cash flows and a stronger liquidity profile over the coming years. We continue to
believe that Stena is a BB corporate credit. The bonds and CDSs are priced attractively.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation.
EWOS: Credit research report
EWOS is a market leader in a highly consolidated salmon feed industry. The salmon
farming industry has historically experienced rapid growth, and we forecast further
growth going forward (though probably at low to moderate levels in the medium term).
We do not expect further margin pressure for EWOS due to high industry consolidation
and its cost-plus model. 2013-14 earnings are affected by separating EWOS from Cermaq
and non-recurring issues and earnings should improve going forward. While interest
coverage is low, we estimate a positive and gradually increasing free cash flow from
2015E and onwards. We view the recent sell off in the notes as an attractive entry point.
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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Ab BB+ Pos BB Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal HOLDBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B+ Stable Øyvind MossigeBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Brian Børsting SELLCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Louis LandemanColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas RipaCom Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola HeldalDanfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob MagnussenDanske Bank A/S A Neg A3 Stable A StableDfds A/S BB+ Stable Brian BørstingDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting HOLDElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal BUYEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Ola HeldalFarstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Øyvind MossigeFingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen SELLFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenFred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Neg Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting BUYGetinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis LandemanGolden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B Sondre StormyrHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Louis LandemanHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB Louis LandemanHkscan Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingHoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel BerginHusqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Louis LandemanIkano Bank Ab BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYIss A/S BBB- Stable Brian Børsting HOLDJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Bjørn Kristian RøedJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg Thomas M. Hovard BUYKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedLoomis Ab BBB- Stable Brian BørstingLuossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanMeda Ab BB- Stable Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj B+ Pos B1 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDNcc Ab BBB- Stable Louis LandemanNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Ola Heldal HOLDNokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB Stable BB- Sondre StormyrNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Stable B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Ola HeldalNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalOlympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Øyvind Mossige
S&P Moody's FitchDanske Bank Recomm.
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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Ola HeldalOutokumpu Oyj B Pos Mads RosendalPohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLPosten Norge As A- Stable Ola HeldalPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Sondre StormyrRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian BørstingSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Louis LandemanSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSandvik Ab BBB Neg Mads Rosendal HOLDSas Ab B- Stable Wr Pos Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDScania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Ola HeldalSeadrill Ltd BB+ Stable BB Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting HOLDSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanSkf Ab BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Øyvind MossigeSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Lars HolmSparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Louis LandemanSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen SELLSteen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Brian Børsting BUYStockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD Mads Rosendal HOLDStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal BUYSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYTallink Group As BB Stable BB- Jakob MagnussenTdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Stable Ola Heldal HOLDTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedTele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola HeldalTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Neg Ola Heldal HOLDTelenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable Ola Heldal HOLDTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal SELLTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalTine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal HOLDVasakronan Ab A- Stable Louis LandemanVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen HOLDVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa BUYVictoria Park Ab BB- Stable B+ Louis LandemanWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDYit Oyj B Neg Louis Landeman
Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Recomm.
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Jakob Magnussen
Utilities, Energy (+45) 45 12 85 03 [email protected]
Knut-Ivar Bakken
Fish farming (+47) 85 40 70 74 [email protected]
Øyvind Mossige
Oil services (+47) 85 40 54 91 [email protected]
Ola Heldal
TMT (+47) 85408433 [email protected]
Henrik René Andresen
Credit Portfolios (+45) 45 13 33 27 [email protected]
Brian Børsting
Industrials (+45) 45 12 85 19 [email protected]
Mads Rosendal
Industrials, Pulp & Paper (+45) 45 14 88 79 [email protected]
Lars Holm
Financials (+45) 45 12 80 41 [email protected]
Fixed Income Credit Research
Louis Landeman
TMT, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80524 [email protected]
Thomas Hovard
Head of Credit Research (+45) 45 12 85 05
Find the latest Credit Research
Danske Bank Markets: Bloomberg: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch DNSK<GO>
Gabriel Bergin
Strategy, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80602 [email protected]
Niklas Ripa
High Yield, Industrials (+45) 45 12 80 47 [email protected]
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Shipping (+47) 85 40 70 72 [email protected]
Sondre Dale Stormyr
Offshore rigs (+47) 85 40 70 70 [email protected]
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Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske
Bank’). The author of the research report is Henrik Andresen, Analyst.
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