weekly credit update - danske bank march 2015 weekly credit update important disclosures and...
TRANSCRIPT
24 March 2015
Weekly Credit Update
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 24 of this report
Chief Analyst Thomas Hovard +45 25 42 42 09 [email protected]
Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI
2
- Market news
- Company news
- Trade ideas
Contents
- Chart pack
- List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations
- Best and worst performers
3
Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
What’s on our mind - General credit market news
• The last week has been rather bleak for the credit markets with the iTraxx Main widening around 7bp and the iTraxx Crossover by 14bps. While most fundamentals and technicals are in favour of credit, we believe the heavy issuance is taking its toll on the markets.
• In terms of issuance, net supply in 2015 YTD is already in line with all of 2014 (and much higher than the three previous years) driven by subordinated debt from financials and high yield. This is making it difficult for investors to digest the new issue pipeline.
• As we approach the next reporting season, which will see more modest supply, we expect credit to perform again. Our view is driven by the US economy being on track, the EU recovering and China not coming off the rails. Furthermore, ECB’s asset purchase programme will underpin the hunt for yield.
• Under its new bank rating methodology, Moody’s placed Danske, SEB, SHB, DNB and the three Norwegian savings banks Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, SMN and Nord-Norge under review for upgrade of their senior unsecured ratings. Swedbank, Nykredit (unsolicited), Sydbank, Jyske (unsolicited) and Pohjola stayed unchanged while Nordea was put on review for a potential two-notch downgrade. We haven’t received the rationale for the individual ratings. Overall, the changes were mainly due to a lowering of potential government support following BRRD and on the other hand the improved capitalisation and bail-inable liabilities at many banks following new regulation which creates a loss-absorbing cushion for senior unsecured debt.
4
News on mortgage lending standards - Moody’s has published comments on regulatory changes in Norway and Sweden
Norway (Finanstilsynet proposal of17 March):
• New loans would remain restricted to a maximum loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 85%, but personal guarantees (sureties) that are often provided by parents for first-time homebuyers would no longer be allowed as a justification to exceed the limit.
• Finanstilsynet has also proposed a minimum 2.5% annual amortisation from the first year for all mortgages until the LTV falls to 65%.
• The proposed rule would mean a tightening of policy because the current guidelines require amortisation only down to 70% LTV and do not specify a minimum annual amortisation.
• Banks should assume a 6pp increase of the interest rate when checking borrower affordability (up 1pp). Importantly, banks will no longer be allowed to bypass the stress test based on a special prudential assessment of the borrower’s circumstances.
• Finanstilsynet recommended that the Ministry of Finance establish the underwriting requirements in the form of regulation, contrary to the current requirements, which are only guidelines.
• The proposal is seen [by Moody’s] as credit positive as it would assist in maintaining stable asset quality and limit the growth of household indebtedness in a low interest rate environment.
Sweden (Finansinspektionen proposal of18 March):
• New mortgage loans, typically capped at a maximum LTV of 85%, would be amortised at 2% of the loan per year until the LTV falls to 70%, at which point the amortisation would be 1% per year until the LTV falls to 50%.
• The requirement has a countercyclical element because LTV variations owing to house price changes would only be factored in every five years at the earliest.
• The proposal will affect all new mortgage loans starting on 1 August 2015.
• The proposal is seen [by Moody’s] as credit positive for Swedish covered bonds because it would constrain household indebtedness and build up home equity.
5
Best and worst performers - Investment grade
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies
5,2
5,0
4,0
4,0
3,8
3,6
3,4
3,3
3,2
3,0
-3,3
-3,3
-3,7
-4,9
-5,0
-5,2
-6,3
-17,3
-19,8
-22,5
-25-20-15-10-50510
Statkraft AS EUR 2022
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2031
Sampo Oyj EUR 2021
Telenor ASA EUR 2024
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2022
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
Statoil ASA EUR 2025
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2017
DNB Boligkreditt AS EUR 2016
Vattenfall AB EUR 2016
Investor AB EUR 2016
Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016
Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020
SBAB Bank AB EUR 2016
Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017
Change in local currencies (bp)
12,6
12,6
12,3
12,1
11,5
11,3
10,7
10,3
10,2
10,1
-6,0
-6,1
-6,1
-9,4
-10,4
-10,8
-16,2
-18,3
-25,9
-27,4
-30-20-1001020
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
Telenor ASA EUR 2025
AP Moeller - Maersk A/S EUR 2019
Telenor ASA EUR 2024
Statoil ASA EUR 2025
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027
Statkraft AS EUR 2022
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2019
Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016
Nykredit Bank A/S EUR 2015
Investor AB EUR 2016
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2019
TDC A/S EUR 2022
Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020
TDC A/S EUR 2015
Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017
Change in local currencies (bp)
6
Best and worst performers - High yield
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies
198,5
179,1
177,0
134,6
61,1
48,3
47,1
45,5
42,2
26,5
-18,2
-19,4
-19,7
-20,0
-21,5
-22,1
-23,0
-23,4
-29,2
-42,0
-100-50050100150200250
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD …
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
Seadrill Ltd USD 2020
Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
SAS AB SEK 2019
Stena International SA USD 2024
Stena AB USD 2024
SAS AB SEK 2017
Odfjell SE NOK 2017
Meda AB SEK 2016
Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2016
Stora Enso OYJ SEK 2017
Finnair OYJ EUR 2049
Hoist Kredit AB SEK 2016
Meda AB SEK 2018
Color Group AS NOK 2016
Prosafe SE NOK 2017
Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay …
Change in local currencies (bp)
313,6
305,1
291,4
272,2
232,6
220,4
207,6
197,1
76,8
68,5
-63,1
-65,8
-69,7
-77,1
-90,7
-91,4
-100,6
-105,7
-107,8
-156,0
-200-1000100200300400
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
Seadrill Ltd USD 2020
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD …
Odfjell SE NOK 2015
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
SAS AB SEK 2019
Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
J Lauritzen A/S NOK 2017
Odfjell SE NOK 2017
Nynas AB SEK 2018
Prosafe SE NOK 2018
Prosafe SE NOK 2017
Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019
Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay …
Prosafe SE NOK 2020
Hoist Kredit AB SEK 2016
Beerenberg Holdco II AS NOK 2018
Prosafe SE NOK 2019
Prosafe SE NOK 2016
Change in local currencies (bp)
7
Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 – priced attractively (published on 19 March 2015)
Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s, Danske Bank Markets
• Earlier this month Vestas issued a 7Y EUR500m senior unsecured bond – the Vestas 2.75% 2022.
• Bond documentation/structure (Vestas 2022) includes the following key terms: Cross default, negative pledge (save for carve-out of up to EUR150m as permitted secured debt and/or assets securing non-recourse debt), change of control put (>50% of control/shares).
• We are not aware of the terms present in the EUR1,000m bank RCF facilities, which are likely stricter than the bond terms.
• Given our view of Vestas as a ‘BBB-’ credit ,we regard the current pricing as attractive.
• In our view, a ‘fair’ credit spread for this type of
bond would be in the range of 130-150bp.
• Our ‘fair spread assessment’ is estimated as the 7Y EUR BBB- curve plus a 60-80bp discount due to the lack of an official credit rating and the inherently politically-driven volatility in the business model.
VWSDC '22 (NR/NR)
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Indicative ASW offer (bps)
EUR - credit curves
Global BB+
Corporates: BBB-
8
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Recent trade ideas
See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations
Type Trade Idea
Opened 19/03/2015
Start spread 245
Closed 10/03/2015
Start spread -2
Opened 27/02/2015
Start spread 470
Opened 10/02/2015
Start spread 109
Opened 02/02/2015
Start spread 661
Opened 26/01/2015
Start spread -8
Opened 23/01/2015
Start spread 81
Opened 18/12/2014
Start spread 807
Curve spread Swith from SECUSS '17 to
SECUSS '21
The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBB-
curve while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the
BBB+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas 2021
Outright SASSS '17 We believe the SAS 2017 offers attractive absolute
value – supported by adequate liquidity
Sector spread Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB
AT1
We have an ‘overweight’ rating on SEB and an
‘underweight’ rating on Nordea and don’t believe
a 14bp pick-up for a four year maturity extension is fair.
Outright Buy Tallink 2018 FRN Tallink 2018 in NOK trades cheap to a global
median ‘BB - ’ credit curve ( converted into NOK )
Outright CITCON '3.75 We believe that CITCON'3.75s trade at an attractive
level relative to the 'BBB' curve
Outright EGASDK '20 EGASDK '20s, which we see as 'B' indicatively trade way
too cheap relative to the industrial 'B' curve
Outright Buy Vestas 2022 Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 trades cheap to a EUR
corporate BBB curve.
Currency trade Close of trade SSAB Recent performance by the SSAB EUR bond has closed
the 19bp gap between the EUR and SEK
2019 bonds.
9
Name News Implication
Carlsberg
Carlsberg (Marketweight): Moodys (Baa2/Negative) kept its negative outlook on Carlsberg Breweries following release of its 2014 annual report. This reflects weak metrics for the current Baa2 rating combined with downside risk associated with a further devaluation of the RUB and the uncertainties associated with Carlsberg’s ability to contain profit deterioration. Moody’s sees Carlsberg’s adjusted debt to EBITDA at 3.4x end-2014 as above the boundary for the current rating (comfortably below 3.0x). We note that Carlsberg has guided for leverage to decline in 2015 and for reported net debt to EBITDA to be below 2.5x at end-2015 vs 2.7x at end-2014. Hence, this guided improvement in leverage is not certain to be enough to prevent a downgrade from Moody’s. However, if Carlsberg gets close to Moody’s threshold at end-2015, despite very difficult market conditions in Russia we do not expect a downgrade. We keep our Marketweight rating on Carlsberg and we do not expect Moody's confirming its negative outlook to have any market impact (Fitch BBB/S). The Carlsberg 19 bond trades at the BBB- corporate curve while the 22 and 24 trade wider. Hence, a one-notch downgrade is already discounted, in our view. However, investors are naturally worried about a potential nationalisation of the Russian assets (Eastern Europe is 40% of group invested capital - Russia is around 85% of this) which is likely to take Carlsberg into high-yield territory (virtually no debt in RUB). We expect Eastern Europe to account for less than 20% of group operating profit in 2015. However, we see it as comforting that Carlsberg is guiding for no M&A in the short term, lower capex and lower net debt to EBITDA in 2015 despite difficult conditions. This illustrates its concern for its credit metrics. We keep our Marketweight rating.
Credit Neutral
Fortum
Following Fortum’s (UW) announcement that it has agreed to divest its Swedish distribution grid for EUR6.6bn, S&P put Fortum’s ‘A-’ rating on watch negative (from negative outlook). The watch negative reflects the fact that Fortum’s business risk profile will be somewhat weakened, as Fortum is parting with the stable part of its earnings base (regulated distribution). Fortum announced that it will revise its net debt to EBITDA target to 2.5x from 3x to offset the weakened business risk profile, but S&P argued that this might not be enough to defend the rating. S&P will use the next three months to evaluate the prospects for Fortum’s business and financial risk profiles before deciding whether to downgrade or not. What remains to be seen is how Fortum will relever from here, being net cash when the proceeds from the divestments filter through to the balance sheet. Will it be extraordinary dividends and/or extra capex and if so, extra capex directed at what?. S&P’s action was more aggressive than we expected and should have negative implications for Fortum spreads.
Credit Negative
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Company news from the past week
10
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Company news from the past week
Volvo
Volvo (MW): Monthly delivery figures for February. Deliveries were up 32% y/y in North America and 13% in Europe y/y. According to Volvo, the higher deliveries in the US and Europe were a result of the better economic environment. In South America, deliveries declined by 73% mainly as a result of a weak economy and much stricter terms for financing (Brazil has cut subsidies for truck financing). The overall effect was a decline of 1% y/y, which was slightly better than consensus expectations. In terms of implications for the credit, the news is neutral overall as Volvo's key issue is still getting its overall level of profitability closer to its peers. We have a Marketweight rating on Volvo.
Credit Neutral
Danish banks
The Danish central bank raised the current account limit from DKK37bn to DKK145bn last Wednesday to ease the pressure on the banks from the negative interest rates. It then raised the limit further yesterday to DKK173bn in order to offer a larger amount for the smaller Danish banks. Combined, these actions will mean an increase of around DKK1bn in NII for the Danish banks on an annualised basis (0.75% on DKK136bn of deposits at the central bank). Not a major impact, but still positive. Danske Bank has access to c.28% of the current account limit, Nordea c21%, Jyske Bank c.6% and finally Sydbank, Spar Nord, SHB and Nykredit c.5% each. 84 banks in total have access to the current account at the Danish central bank.
Credit Positive
11
Note: Issues from Repsol, VWS and Swiss Re are hybrids.
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Selected new issues
Selected new issues
Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM
20/03/2015 Kering 0.875% EUR 500 m Mar/22 / / 60 18/03/2015 Repsol Intl Finance 3.875% EUR 1 000 m PNC6 / (P)Ba1 / BB+e 381 17/03/2015 Volkswagen Intl Fin Nv 2.5% EUR 1 100 m PNC7 / Baa1 / 220 16/03/2015 Statkraft As 1.5% EUR 500 m Mar/30 A- / Baa1 / 75 20/03/2015 Swiss Re 1.65% EUR 1.75bn PNC10 / / 205 17/03/2015 Jyske Bank FRN EUR 500m Mar/18 A-/ / 35
12
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices
IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100
HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100
13
Chart pack: relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)
EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks
Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)
14
Chart pack: general market development European swap and government yields
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
Euro swap curve spread
3M TED-spread, US and euro area
EUR/USD basis swaps
15
Chart pack: fund flows Europe, net sales
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
Sweden, net sales
US, net sales
Norway, net sales
16
Chart pack: macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
Euro area y/y change in bank lending
Purchasing Manager Indices
Euro area lending standards
17
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Stable BBB- Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B Stable Øyvind MossigeBillerudkorsnas Ab BBB- Stable Mads RosendalBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Emil HjalmarssonColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas RipaCom Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola HeldalDanfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob MagnussenDanske Bank A/S A Neg A3 Stable A StableDfds A/S BBB- Stable Niklas RipaDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTElenia Oy Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHT
Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5
18
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Stable BBB- Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B Stable Øyvind MossigeBillerudkorsnas Ab BBB- Stable Mads RosendalBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Emil HjalmarssonColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas RipaCom Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola HeldalDanfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob MagnussenDanske Bank A/S A Neg A3 Stable A StableDfds A/S BBB- Stable Niklas RipaDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTElenia Oy Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHT
Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5
Source: Danske Bank Markets
19
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Ola HeldalFarstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Øyvind MossigeFingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHTFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenFred Olsen Energy Asa BB Stable BB- Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTGetinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis LandemanGolden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B- Sondre StormyrHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Louis LandemanHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB Emil HjalmarssonHkscan Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingHoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel BerginHusqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Emil HjalmarssonIkano Bank Ab BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTIss A/S BBB- Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Bjørn Kristian RøedJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedLoomis Ab BBB- Stable Brian BørstingLuossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanMeda Ab BB- Stable Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj BB Stable B1 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTNcc Ab BBB- Stable Emil HjalmarssonNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTNokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen
Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch
Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5
20
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB- Neg B+ Sondre StormyrNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Stable B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Ola HeldalNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOcean Yield Asa BB BB- Øyvind MossigeOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalOlympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Øyvind MossigeOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Ola HeldalOutokumpu Oyj B Pos Mads RosendalPohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTPosten Norge As A- Stable Ola HeldalPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Sondre StormyrRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian BørstingSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSandvik Ab BBB Neg Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTSas Ab B- Stable Wr Stable Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTScania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Ola HeldalSeadrill Ltd BB Neg BB- Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Emil HjalmarssonSkf Ab BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTSognekraft As BBB Stable BBB Jakob MagnussenSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Øyvind MossigeSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Aaa T. Hovard / L. Holm
Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch
Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5
21
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Emil HjalmarssonSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHTSteen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHTStockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa2 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmSunnfjord Energi As BBB- Stable BBB- Jakob MagnussenSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal OVERWEIGHTSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKETWEIGHTSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTSydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Emil HjalmarssonTallink Group As BB Stable BB- Niklas RipaTdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Neg Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedTele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola HeldalTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTelenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal UNDERWEIGHTTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT
Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch
Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5
22
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalTine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTVasakronan Ab A- Stable Emil HjalmarssonVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHTVictoria Park Ab BB- Stable B+ Louis LandemanVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedYit Oyj B Neg Emil Hjalmarsson
Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch
Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
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Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Head of Credit Research +45 45 12 85 05 [email protected]
Louis Landeman, Analyst TMT, Industrials +46 8 568 80524 [email protected]
Mads Rosendal, Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper +46 8 568 80594 [email protected]
Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy +45 45 12 85 03 [email protected]
Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst Fish Farming +47 85 40 70 74 [email protected]
Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Industrials +45 45 12 85 19 [email protected]
Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Financials +45 45 12 80 41 [email protected]
Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Strategy, Industrials +46 8 568 80602 [email protected]
Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst High Yield, Industrials +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected]
Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst Shipping +47 85 40 70 72 [email protected]
Ola Heldal, Analyst TMT +47 85 40 84 33 [email protected]
Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst Offshore Rigs +47 85 40 70 70 [email protected]
Henrik René Andresen, Analyst Credit Portfolios +45 45 13 33 27 [email protected]
Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Oil Services +47 85 40 54 91 [email protected]
Emil Hjalmarsson, Analyst Real Estate, Construction +46 8 568 80634 [email protected]
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Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst.
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Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.
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