investment research 15 august 2014 weekly credit update€¦ · credit update – meda q2 14, 13...

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 10 of this report. www.danskeresearch.com

Investment Research

Headlines

Low yields for longer backs credits.

Strong performance from Senior Financials.

Low activity in primary markets.

Market commentary

Geopolitical tension and concerns about the validation of the European recovery have

sparked a minor sell-off over the summer but during the last week, credit spreads have

improved and we expect this trend to continue. The growth and inflation outlook for the

eurozone have weakened, emphasised by 10Y Bund yields yesterday briefly touching

ground with the 1% mark for the first time, which in our view will secure low rates for a

prolonged period. Consequently, technicals are supportive of credits as the search for

yield via higher beta and duration continues backed by accommodative measures from the

ECB, including the first TLTRO in September (and maybe more to come).

Strong performance in Senior Financials

As seen in the chart on the next page, iTraxx Senior Financials has outperformed iTraxx

Main over the past 18 months and currently trades on par (before the financial crisis

banks traded tighter than the Main index, thus the ratio was below 1). Banks have

benefited from deleveraging recently through both internal and external capital generation

(profits and right issues) but also through asset disposals, improving risk-weights

modelling and low funding needs. With the results of the AQR from the ECB coming up

over the next couple of months, which could create some jitters, and the strong

performance over the past 18 months, we are becoming more cautious on the asset class

and think better value can be found in subordinated financials or in corporates.

Primary markets

There is still very low activity in the primary markets as it is holiday season in most

southern European countries but we expect a gradual improvement in volumes in August

and the markets to take off in September. We expect a busy autumn.

Selected new issues

Name Rating Coupon Currency Tenor Size Spread*

Credit Suisse A/A1 FRN EUR 1Y 1.25bn +20 Volkswagen A-/A3 FRN EUR 2Y 500m +31 Volkswagen A-/A3 FRN EUR 3Y 150m +40

Note: Ratings are senior unsecured ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch

* Mid-swap for fixed, discount margin for FRNs, in basis points

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

15 August 2014

Chief Analyst Thomas Hovard +45 45 12 85 05 [email protected]

Contents

Market commentary 1

Selected charts 3

Recently published research 5

Official and shadow ratings 13

Weekly Credit Update

iTraxx Europe (investment grade)


iTraxx Crossover (high yield)


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iTraxx Senior Financials vs Main


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EUR investment-grade cash spreads (ASW) EUR high-yield cash spreads (ASW)

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

iTraxx (Europe) vs CDX (US) Investment grade corporate yields


Nordic corporates vs iTraxx Nordic banks 5Y CDS spreads


Corporate BBB bond yield vs EuroSTOXX dividend yield 3M Libor OIS spreads



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Financials spread vs non-financials (Industrials), A-rated



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Recently published research

Credit Update –G4S H1 14 – BUY, 13 August

In our view, the main takeaway from G4S’s H1 14 report was the clear stabilisation in

underlying margins, which increases belief in the company’s turnaround process. Net

debt to EBITDA increased slightly; however, this was attributable mainly to the

settlement of the UK tagging debacle and we expect leverage to decline in H2. In our

view, G4S is a solid ‘BBB-’ credit and stands to benefit from continued restructuring and

management’s high focus on fulfilling the leverage target of net debt to EBITDA of

below 2.5x (H1 14 3.0x). We maintain our Buy recommendation.

Credit Update – Meda Q2 14, 13 August

Meda’s performance in Q2 14 disappointed, as generic competition and a production

issue caused the company to downgrade its FY 2014 margin guidance somewhat. At end-

July, Meda announced the acquisition of the Italian company Rottapharm for SEK21bn.

The transaction is majority debt financed and we expect Meda’s net debt to EBITDA to

rise to roughly 5.5-6.0x by year-end 2014. Consequently, we lower our credit view on

Meda from ‘BB’ to ‘BB-’. If Meda can deliver on its presented synergy and debt

reduction targets, we see upside potential in our rating assessment over time. At the same,

initial leverage is likely to be high, with a fair amount of execution risk.

Credit Update – Nokian Tyres Q2 14, 8 August

Nokian Tyres’ Q2 14 results were weighed down by its exposure to Russia (34% of

H1 14 sales), which was affected by lower demand and a weaker RUB/EUR. Lower input

costs and sales growth in Europe and North America were not sufficient to offset the

Russian weakness, which also caused group earnings to deteriorate to a level that was

somewhat below market expectations. Group financial metrics deteriorated in the quarter

but remain in line with a ‘minimal’ financial risk profile. Given Nokian Tyres’ relatively

large exposure to Russia and Finland and the recent ‘turn to the worse’ in EU/Russia

relations, we now consider the business risk profile of Nokian Tyres has deteriorated and

reduce our indicative rating to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-’.

Credit Update – Sampo Q2 14 – HOLD, 14 August

Sampo reported another strong set of quarterly results, as the non-life operation continued

to report a low combined ratio throughout the Nordic region. Sampo’s outstanding bonds

lack liquidity and we see no reason to change our Hold recommendation.

Credit Update – SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Q2 14 – HOLD, 13 August

SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge delivered another very strong report, with progress on most

lines on the back of a healthy operating environment in Norway. We maintain our HOLD

recommendation.

Credit Update – SpareBank 1 SMN Q2 14 – BUY, 13 August

We maintain our BUY rating following another solid set of results driven by, among

other things, 4% growth in NII. Capitalisation continued to increase and asset quality is

unchanged at a high level. We are still cautious about the high housing prices in Norway

but do not see this as a great risk near term.

Credit Update – SpareBank 1 SR-Bank Q2 14 – HOLD , 13 August

The Q2 numbers confirmed that banking in Norway is currently easy living.

Capitalisation is building, profitability is high and asset quality is strong, as it should be

in the strong operating environment. We maintain our HOLD recommendation.

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateG4S130814/$file/CreditUpdate_G4S_130814.pdf

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateMedaQ214130814/$file/CreditUpdate_Meda_Q214_130814.pdf

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateNokianTyresQ214080814/$file/CreditUpdate_NokianTyres_Q214_080814.pdf

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateSampoQ214130814/$file/CreditUpdate_Sampo_Q214_130814.pdf

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateSpareBank1NordNorgeQ214130814/$file/CreditUpdate_SpareBank_1_Nord_Norge_Q2_14_130814.pdf

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateSpareBank1SMNQ214/$file/CreditUpdate_SpareBank1SMN_Q214.pdf

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateSpareBank1130814/$file/CreditUpdate_SpareBank1_130814.pdf


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Credit Update – TDC Q2 14 – HOLD, 7 August

TDC’s organic sales continued their structural decline in Q2, fuelled by intense mobile

competition and landline losses. Subsequently, comparable revenues fell 6% y/y. Group

EBITDA fell 3% y/y, with the continued focus on cost cutting unable to offset the impact

of lower revenues. The divestment of TDC Finland coupled with stronger working

capital, more than compensated for the DKK425m dividend payment in the quarter. The

lower net debt left group adjusted metrics slightly better and still in line with the

requirements for the ‘BBB’ ratings from agencies. TDC maintains its FY outlook. We

maintain our HOLD recommendation on TDC’s bonds.

Credit Update – Wilh Wilhelmsen ASA Q2 14, 10 August

We downgraded our corporate credit rating for Wilh Wilhelmsen ASA from ‘BBB-’ to

‘BB+’. FY 2013 and H1 14 have seen the company’s credit profile deteriorate with

increased pressure on margins due to weaker volume development for high and heavy

cargoes and a change in trading patterns, which negatively affected margins for vehicle

transportation. Wilh Wilhelmsen’s subsidiary WWL was found guilty of anti-trust

violations in Japan and is now waiting for the verdict from the EU and US authorities.

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/CreditUpdateWWASAH114100814/$file/CreditUpdate_WWASA_H114_100814.pdf


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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAkelius Residential Ab BB+ Pos BB Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Åse Haagensen HOLDBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B+ Stable Øyvind MossigeBwg Homes Asa BB Stable BB- Nils AspeliCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Kasper F. LarsenCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Brian Børsting SELLCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Kasper F. LarsenDanske Bank A/S A Neg Baa1 Pos A StableDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDfds A/S BB+ Stable Kasper F. LarsenDna Ltd BBB- Stable Kasper F. LarsenDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable Nils AspeliEika Gruppen As BBB Stable Nils AspeliElectrolux Ab BBB+ Neg Wr WD Brian Børsting HOLDElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Kasper F. Larsen BUYEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Nils AspeliFarstad Shipping Asa BB Stable BB- Åse HaagensenFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFingrid Oyj AA- Neg A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYFortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen SELLFred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Stable Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting BUYGetinge Ab BBB- Neg Louis LandemanHelgeland Sparebank Baa2 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable Wiveca SwartingHusqvarna Ab BBB- Stable Louis LandemanInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYIss A/S BBB- Stable Baa3 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Åse HaagensenJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg Thomas M. Hovard BUYKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedMeda Ab BB Neg Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj B+ Stable B2 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Neg Mads Rosendal BUYMjolby-Svartadalen Energi Ab BBB+ Watch Louis LandemanNcc Ab BBB- Stable Louis LandemanNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Stable BB Stable Kasper F. Larsen HOLDNokian Renkaat Oyj A- Stable Jakob MagnussenNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB Stable BB- Sondre StormyrNorwegian Air Shuttle As BB- Stable B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Nils AspeliNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Nils AspeliOlympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Åse HaagensenOutokumpu Oyj B- Pos Mads RosendalOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Nils AspeliPohjola Bank Plc AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLPosten Norge As A- Stable Nils AspeliPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Åse HaagensenRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian BørstingSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Wiveca SwartingSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSandvik Ab BBB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLD

S&P Moody's FitchDanske Bank Recomm.


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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSas Ab B- Stable Wr Pos Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDScania Ab A- Pos Mads Rosendal HOLDSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Nils AspeliSeadrill Ltd BB+ Stable BB Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting HOLDSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanSkf Ab BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Åse HaagensenSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As BB- Stable Lars HolmSparebank 1 Nord Norge A- Stable A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSparebank 1 Sr Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Louis LandemanSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen SELLStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Brian Børsting BUYStockmann Oyj Abp BB- Neg Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Neg BB- Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal BUYSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDTallink Group As BB Stable BB- Jakob MagnussenTalvivaara Mining Co Plc C Mads RosendalTdc A/S BBB Stable Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Kasper F. Larsen HOLDTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Kasper F. LarsenTele2 Ab BBB Stable Kasper F. LarsenTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable BBB+ Neg Kasper F. Larsen HOLDTelenor Asa A- Pos A3 Stable Kasper F. Larsen HOLDTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Stable Kasper F. Larsen SELLTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Nils AspeliUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB Pos Ba1 Stable BB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDVasakronan Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen HOLDVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Kasper F. Larsen BUYVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal BUYWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedYit Oyj B Neg Louis Landeman

Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Recomm.


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Ola Heldal

TMT (+47) 85408433 [email protected]

Henrik René Andresen

Credit Portfolios (+45) 45 13 33 27 [email protected]

Brian Børsting

Industrials (+45) 45 12 85 19 [email protected]

Mads Rosendal

Industrials, Pulp & Paper (+45) 45 14 88 79 [email protected]

Lars Holm

Financials (+45) 45 12 80 41 [email protected]

Jakob Magnussen

Utilities, Energy (+45) 45 12 85 03 [email protected]

Åse Haagensen

High Yield, Industrials (+47) 22 86 13 22 [email protected]

Fixed Income Credit Research

Louis Landeman

TMT, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80524 [email protected]

Thomas Hovard

Head of Credit Research (+45) 45 12 85 05

[email protected]

Find the latest Credit Research

Danske Bank Markets: Bloomberg: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch DNSK<GO>

Gabriel Bergin

Strategy, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80602 [email protected]

Niklas Ripa

High Yield, Industrials (+45) 45 12 80 47 [email protected]

Bjørn Kristian Røed

Shipping (+47) 85 40 70 72 [email protected]

Wiveca Swarting

Real Estate, Construction (+46) 8 568 80617 [email protected]

Sondre Dale Stormyr

Offshore rigs (+47) 85 40 70 70 [email protected]

Øyvind Mossige

Oil services (+47) 85 40 54 91 [email protected]










http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch








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Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske

Bank’). The author of the research report is Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst.

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investment research 15 august 2014 weekly credit update€¦ · credit update – meda q2 14, 13...

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