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August 10, 2015 Weekly Call Research Analysts Research Analysts Dharmesh Shah [email protected] Nitin Kunte, CMT [email protected] Dipesh Dagha [email protected] Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected] Vinayak Parmar [email protected]

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Page 1: Weekly Call

August 10, 2015g ,

Weekly Call

Research AnalystsResearch AnalystsDharmesh Shah [email protected] Kunte, CMT [email protected] Dagha [email protected] Mukherjee [email protected] Parmar [email protected]

Page 2: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceWeekly Calls

Gabriel India (GABIND)

Code GABIND

CMP | 92.30

Breaking from wedge likeComment

Breaking from wedge-like consolidation phase with higher volume.

Action Buy in the range of 89-91

Reco. Date 10th Aug’2015

Stop-loss | 84

Targets | 101 / higher

2

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 3: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceWeekly Calls

UFLEX (FLEIND)

Code UFLEX

CMP | 187.45

CommentBreaking previous resistance with higher volume.

Action Buy in the range of 180-183

Reco. Date 10th Aug’2015

Stop-loss | 166

Targets | 215 / higher

3

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 4: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceTrend Scanner

Positive Trends Candlestick PatternScrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge

Bajaj Electricals 279.5 264.0 255.0 42.00

Strides Arcolab 1,331.6 1,216.0 1,150.0 54.00

SKF India 1,361.4 1,380.0 1,383.0 68.00

Eicher Motors 20,631.6 19,507.0 18,341.0 38.00

Larsen & Toubro 1 833 5 1 776 0 1 735 0 50 00

Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations

Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP

JSW Steel Engulfing Bull 922.5 Praj Industries Engulfing Bear 102.5

OIL India Engulfing Bull 456.4 GSPL Engulfing Bear 125.2

SKF India Engulfing Bull 1361.4 Hexaware Dark Cloud Cover 279.2

Brigade Engulfing Bull 154.7 JSW Energy Continuous 77.2

Negative Trends

Larsen & Toubro 1,833.5 1,776.0 1,735.0 50.00

Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge

Just Dial 1,048.9 1,132.0 1,183.0 53.00

Brigade Engulfing Bull 154.7 JSW Energy Continuous 77.2

Bharat Forge Continuous 1222.7 Just Dial Continuous 1048.9

Bosch Continuous 26036.4

Eicher Motors Continuous 20631.6

Larsen & Toubro Engulfing Bull 1833.5

LegendLegend

Positive and Negative Trends:

The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination ofvarious technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractivetechnical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed atidentifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.

Candlestick patterns:

Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove asan important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. Moreimportance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way tounderstand them is listed at the end of the report

4

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 5: Weekly Call

Market Activity

Gl b l M k ts Domestic Sectoral Indices PerformanceGlobal Markets Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance

20,724.6

Hong Kong

Japan

11,490.8

0.7%

1.6%Germany China

5,154.8

3,744.22.2%

France1.4%

UK6,718.5 24,552.5

INDICES Current 1Wk 1M 3MSensex 28236.39 0.4 0.7 5.9Nifty 8564.6 0.4 0.7 6.1Auto 19765.17 3.4 3.4 9.2Banking 21702.4 0.9 1.7 7.1Capital goods 18392 34 1 7 0 5 8 8

Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields

Hong Kong-0.3%

UK

US -1.2%

2,077.6

0.3%

Brazil -4.5%

48,577.3

Capital goods 18392.34 1.7 0.5 8.8

Cons durables 11413.47 2.9 0.6 6.1FMCG 8141.03 0.1 1.3 5.7Healthcare 17521.15 2.8 2.0 4.4IT 11168.66 0.9 0.9 7.9Metal 8672.8 0.1 1.0 -11.7Oil & gas 9966.73 0.7 -1.3 4.9

63 82 97 62Power 2064.21 0.0 1.5 2.6Realty 1437.2 3.6 3.9 -7.7BSE 500 11358.74 1.1 2.3 7.6BSE midcap 11557.52 2.5 2.8 12.9BSE small cap 12104.47 2.3 2.5 11.9

Japanese Yen 124.31 Swiss Franc 0.98

0.2% 1.7%

Euro1.10

British Pound1.55

0.0% -0.8%

Rupee (|)63.82

Dollar Index97.62

0.5% 0.3%

Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)

6.1 5.9 5.5 4.5

-3.7 -4.4 -5.5 -5.9

-3.50

4.50

% C

hang

e2.18

2 4 bIndia 10 year US 10 Year

7.81

0 4 b

Copper (tonne)5,164.00

0.0% -1.1%

Brent Crude/barrel 48.39

Gold/ounce1,093.30

Silver (ounce) 14.9

-6.5% 0.8%

-11.50

3.50

TATA

STEE

L

PNB

BOSC

HLTD

DRRE

DDY

IDEA

BHEL

COA

LIN

DIA

HCLT

ECH

%

0.40

-1 bps

-2.4 bps

EURO 10 Year JPY 10 Year

0.4 bps

0.66

1.7 bps

5

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 6: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceMarket ActivityInstitutional flow trends of last 12 months

1

1677

880

4309

3940 92

44

42

28000

29000

30000

9000

14000

19000Series2 Series1 Series3

5103

-117

2

1375

3

2132

1291

9

1147

6

1207

8 1172

-576

8

-334

4

5319

1552

4172

5940 70

37

4177

1032

6 544

-441

25000

26000

27000

-6000

-1000

4000

9000

Weekly market breadth trends

250006000

Sep'

14

Oct'1

4

Nov

'14

Dec'

14

Jan'

15

Feb'

15

Mar

'15

Apr

'15

May

'15

June

'15

July

'15

Aug

'15

% % %% % %

26425 2731627812 28093 27661

28463 28112 28115 28236

26500

28000

29500

40%

60%

80%

cent

age

Advance % Decline % Sensex

44%

58% 53%

55%

54%

57% 51

%

54%

56%

56%

42% 47%

45%

46%

43% 49

%

46%

44%

23500

25000

0%

20%

12-Jun-15 19-Jun-15 26-Jun-15 3-Jul-15 10-Jul-15 17-Jul-15 24-Jul-15 31-Jul-15 7-Aug-15

Perc

Week Ended

66

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 7: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServicePrevious Week’s Performance

Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 10 14 2015)

Date Scrip Product Strategy RP Target SL Gain/Loss % Comment3-Aug NBCC Cash Buy 1012.00 1110.00 950.00 - Not Initiated3-Aug Gokuldas Export Cash Buy 84.00 97.00 77.00 15.0 Target almost achieved

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 10 – 14, 2015)COMPANY CMP PIVOT S1 S2 R1 R2NIFTY 8564.60 8539.72 8473.13 8381.67 8631.18 8697.77

SENSEX 28236.39 28154.16 27948.35 27660.32 28442.19 28648.00

ACC 1399.65 1394.22 1371.43 1343.22 1422.43 1445.22

AMBUJACEM 228 50 229 22 225 28 222 07 232 43 236 37AMBUJACEM 228.50 229.22 225.28 222.07 232.43 236.37

ASIANPAINT 898.65 900.15 873.50 848.35 925.30 951.95

AXISBANK 580.30 580.48 571.47 562.63 589.32 598.33

BAJAJ-AUTO 2537.40 2540.85 2473.70 2410.00 2604.55 2671.70

BANKBARODA 185.00 185.30 177.75 170.50 192.55 200.10

BHARTIARTL 411.60 416.17 404.63 397.67 423.13 434.67

BHEL 266 15 268 12 248 28 230 42 285 98 305 82BHEL 266.15 268.12 248.28 230.42 285.98 305.82

BOSCHLTD 26036.40 25801.70 24904.40 23772.40 26933.70 27831.00

BPCL 955.50 941.00 919.00 882.50 977.50 999.50

CAIRN 166.80 168.93 162.27 157.73 173.47 180.13

CIPLA 715.15 716.45 701.80 688.45 729.80 744.45

COALINDIA 414.70 424.65 402.20 389.70 437.15 459.60

DRREDDY 4258 85 4210 00 4093 50 3928 15 4375 35 4491 85DRREDDY 4258.85 4210.00 4093.50 3928.15 4375.35 4491.85

GAIL 341.85 345.97 336.43 331.02 351.38 360.92

GRASIM 3808.70 3785.20 3727.50 3646.30 3866.40 3924.10

HCLTECH 939.35 944.27 925.08 910.82 958.53 977.72

HDFC 1298.45 1312.65 1274.80 1251.15 1336.30 1374.15

HDFCBANK 1092.65 1097.37 1077.23 1061.82 1112.78 1132.92

777

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 8: Weekly Call

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 10 - 14, 2015)

COMPANY CMP PIVOT S1 S2 R1 R2HEROMOTOCO 2661.85 2686.00 2578.20 2494.55 2769.65 2877.45

HINDALCO 109.55 108.83 105.42 101.28 112.97 116.38

HINDUNILVR 904.85 909.90 895.00 885.15 919.75 934.65

ICICIBANK 310.15 311.38 302.97 295.78 318.57 326.98

IDEA 166.95 168.32 161.63 156.32 173.63 180.32

INDUSINDBK 946.95 957.67 929.33 911.72 975.28 1003.62

INFY 1095.60 1084.03 1062.57 1029.53 1117.07 1138.53

ITC 324.45 326.65 319.80 315.15 331.30 338.15

KOTAKBANK 705.00 699.22 685.93 666.87 718.28 731.57

LT 1833.45 1793.83 1743.67 1653.88 1883.62 1933.78

LUPIN 1694.40 1681.80 1646.70 1599.00 1729.50 1764.60

M&M 1390.30 1388.12 1334.18 1278.07 1444.23 1498.17

MARUTI 4452 95 4438 98 4393 97 4334 98 4497 97 4542 98MARUTI 4452.95 4438.98 4393.97 4334.98 4497.97 4542.98

NMDC 104.00 103.03 101.57 99.13 105.47 106.93

NTPC 133.85 135.05 132.10 130.35 136.80 139.75

ONGC 282.85 277.17 270.38 257.92 289.63 296.42

PNB 159.90 158.12 152.43 144.97 165.58 171.27

POWERGRID 139.60 140.62 138.33 137.07 141.88 144.17

RELIANCE 984.35 991.78 969.72 955.08 1006.42 1028.48RELIANCE 984.35 991.78 969.72 955.08 1006.42 1028.48

SBIN 281.30 281.00 270.20 259.10 292.10 302.90

SUNPHARMA 851.95 843.12 828.83 805.72 866.23 880.52

TATAMOTORS 393.40 387.53 379.07 364.73 401.87 410.33

TATAPOWER 69.10 69.53 68.12 67.13 70.52 71.93

TATASTEEL 262.05 258.62 248.73 235.42 271.93 281.82

TCS 2552.05 2540.35 2497.70 2443.35 2594.70 2637.35

TECHM 535.15 538.48 518.17 501.18 555.47 575.78

ULTRACEMCO 3202.45 3187.82 3119.63 3036.82 3270.63 3338.82

VEDL 129.30 128.27 125.13 120.97 132.43 135.57

WIPRO 569.10 568.78 557.82 546.53 580.07 591.03

YESBANK 821.45 829.08 811.72 801.98 838.82 856.18

ZEEL 410.40 408.20 398.70 387.00 419.90 429.40

88

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 9: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceForthcoming Economic Events Calendar

Date Event

US10-Aug Labor Market Conditions Index Change10-Aug MBA Mortgage Foreclosures10-Aug Mortgage Delinquencies11-Aug NFIB Small Business Optimism11-Aug Nonfarm Productivity12-Aug MBA Mortgage Applications12 Aug MBA Mortgage Applications12-Aug JOLTS Job Openings13-Aug Retail Sales Advance MoM13-Aug Initial Jobless Claims14-Aug PPI Final Demand MoM14-Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM14-Aug Industrial Production MoM14-Aug Manufacturing (SIC) Production14-Aug Manufacturing (SIC) Production

India

10-Aug Trade Balance12-Aug Industrial Production YoY12-Aug CPI YoY14-Aug Wholesale Prices YoYChina10 A10-Aug New Yuan Loans CNY10-Aug Aggregate Financing CNY12-Aug Retail Sales YoY12-Aug Industrial Production YTD YoY12-Aug Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoYUK11-Aug BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY12-Aug Claimant Count Rate12-Aug Jobless Claims Change12-Aug Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY13-Aug RICS House Price Balance14-Aug Construction Output SA MoM14-Aug Construction Output SA YoY

99

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 10: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceNotes

Pl h d i i hi h ib d id d i h• Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis

• We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stoploss on remaining position to the entry point

• In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the recommendation is considered not initiated

• The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail

Trading Portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

Withi h d t t it i d i bl t ll t l t t h d ti• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to eachrecommendation

101010

Page 11: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceRecommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation

111111

Page 12: Weekly Call

Deal Team – At Your ServiceCandlesticks Glossary:

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and therefore areCandlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, areimportant for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importanceneeds to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend

Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in completecharge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morningstar visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support

Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend The market falls and aBullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and ablack candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short termsupport for prices

Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open but thatsession culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred toas technical support for prices

Hammer: A candlestick line which during a downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session’sHammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session srange. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability ofprices above head of the Hammer in following session

Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend hasstopped or reversed

Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally A black candle real body wraps around a white realBearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white realbody (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference

Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price opens overthe prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into theprior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately

Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a verylong upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overheadlong upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead

Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature onCandlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoidconfusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

1212

Page 13: Weekly Call

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,ICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,Road No 7, MIDCAndheri (East)Andheri (East)Mumbai – 400 [email protected]

Page 14: Weekly Call

DisclaimerANALYST CERTIFICATION

We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Dipesh Dagha, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to / , , , p g , j , y y ,this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures:ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of fi i l d t ICICI S iti i h ll d b idi f ICICI B k hi h i I di ’ l t i t t b k d h it ifinancial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances .This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report Nothing in this report constitutes investment legal accounting and tax advice or arecipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or arepresentation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason.

Page 15: Weekly Call

DisclaimerICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not

il id t f t f I t d i d t Ri k Di l D t t d t d th i k i t d b fnecessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investmenttwelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of i h i f bli i f hiinterest at the time of publication of this report.It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Dipesh Dagha, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses they might have financial interests or beneficial ownershipSince associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.