The Energy Report

Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

Kees van der Leun

Brussels, 12 April 2011

2

What’s the issue?a. growing demand for energy

From 2010 to 2050:

Population +33%

World economy (GDP): +200%

Demand for energy services (industry, buildings, transportation) roughly in line with GDP growth

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2050

Pop

ula

tion

(b

n)

0

40

80

120

160

GD

P (tn E

UR

) .

Population

GDP

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011

3

What’s the issue?b. fossil fuel supplies tight

Strong price increases to be expectedSource: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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What’s the issue?c. CO2-emissions must be reduced

Scenarios that give the world a chance to stay below 2°C have:

• Emissions peak before 2020

• Emissions 60-70% lower than now by 2050

Hardly any scenarios exist with a change of staying below 1.5°C

Source: UNEP, The Emissions Gap Report

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Key question

Is a fully sustainable

global energy system possible by 2050 ?

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Answer

Yes

And theEcofys Energy Scenario

shows how it can be done..

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al E

nerg

y (

EJ/

a)

Fossil & Nuclear

Renewable Heat & FuelsRenewable Power

Baseline: ~520 EJ / a

Aggressive end-use energy savings and

electrification

Substitution of traditional by

renewable sources

Remaining fossil fuels

Fossils are phased out over time as renewables take up the challenge

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

Source: Ecofys

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Final energ

y (E

J/a)

Other

Industry

Buildings

Transport

Baseline (approx.)

Absolute energy use can be reduced without a reduction in energy services

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

Source: Ecofys

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The Energy Report is amongst the most ambitious visions today

No other major scenario foresees a larger reduction in energy demand over the next 40 years

Top lines are in primary, bottom lines in final energy

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tota

l en

erg

y (

fin

al or

pri

mary

) [E

J/a]

I PCC A1B Ref.

IPCC B1 Ref.

Shell Blueprints

Van Vuuren Ref.

Van Vuuren 400

Climate Solutions

WEO '09 450.

Adv.[r]evolution('10)

Energy ReportSource: Ecofys

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al e

nerg

y (

EJ/

a)

Fuels (not yetreplaceable)

Fuels(A sectors)

High T Heat(B sectors)

Electricity

Reduced demand for raw materials and increased efficiency are key in industry

Material efficiency

Shift to current most efficient technologies

Alternative production pathways and recycling

‘A’ sectors = steel, cement, aluminium, paper; ‘B’ sectors: chemicals, food, other

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

Source: Ecofys

13

Stabilisation in energy demand in industry through ambitious efficiency improvements

Activity and intensity graphs are only shown for Steel, Cement, Aluminium and Paper sectors for illustration. Other sectors are based on GDP growth projections

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al e

ner

gy

(EJ

/ a)

Fossil fuels(notreplaceable)

Fuels(A sectors)

High T Heat(B sectors)

Electricity

Source: Ecofys

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Indexed i

nte

nsi

ty (

GJ/

tonne)

SteelCementAluminiumPaper

Source: Ecofys

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pro

duct

ion (

bn.

tonnes)

PaperAluminiumCementSteel

Source: Ecofys

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Buildings: strongly reduce heat demand, increase electrification

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al en

erg

y (

EJ/

a) Heat - Low T

Electricity

Source: Ecofys

Heating & Cooling

New buildings: near-zero energy use Existing buildings: retrofitted at an ambitious rate Cooling: provided with renewable / local cooling solutions

Local solutions

Solar water heating systems will provide half of all water needs Electric heat pumps will replace fuel use with renewable electricity

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Stabilisation in buildings results from ambitious energy efficiency improvements

Floor area and specific energy use are shown for Residential sector only for illustrative purposes.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Fin

al en

erg

y (

EJ/

a) Heat - Low T

Electricity

Source: Ecofys

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

In d

exed d

em

and (

MJ/

m2)

Res. - Elec.Res. - HeatCom. - Elec.Com. - Heat

Source: Ecofys

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Flo

or

are

a (

bn.

m2)

New stock

Current stock

Source: Ecofys

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Electrification is key to sustainability in transport

No major reduction of travel volume Ambitious modal shifts towards efficient transport modes, e.g. from car to rail Ambitious assumptions on efficiency improvements in existing technologies Decisive shift to electric forms of transport Renewable fuels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al en

erg

y (

EJ/

a)

Fuel - Aviation

Fuel - Shipping

Fuel - Road/Rail

Electricity

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

Source: Ecofys

19

Stabilisation in the transport sector through ambitious energy efficiency improvements

Activity graph excludes shipping. Shipping energy demand is based on GDP growth and relative efficiency savings in line with other modes.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Fin

al en

erg

y (

EJ/

a)

Fuel - Aviation

Fuel - Shipping

Fuel - Road/Rail

ElectricitySource: Ecofys

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Inte

nsi

ty (

MJ/

pkm

or

tkm

)

Passgr - Fuel

Passgr - Elec

Freight - Fuel

Freight - Elec

Source: Ecofys

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tra

nsp

ort

(10

12 p

km

or

tkm

)

Freight transport

Passenger travel

Source: Ecofys

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Bioenergy is an important element of the energy supply in the Scenario

Transport fuels; especially: Long distance road

transport Aviation Shipping

Industrial fuels; especially: Applications that require

very high temperature Applications that require

a specific energy carrier (e.g. gaseous fuel, solid fuel)

Bioenergy can fill energy demands where other renewables provide no or no complete alternative, e.g.:

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ

/ a

Other renewables Bio: Electricity

Bio: Building heat Bio: Industry heat & fuels

Bio: Transport fuels Fossil & Nuclear

Source: Ecofys

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Final energ

y (E

J/a)

Heat and Fuels

Electricity

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

The ambitious electrification allows us to make maximum use of solar, wind, hydro etc.

Source: Ecofys

24

100 % renewable electricity by 2050

Renewable electricity so abundant that options will compete Supply-driven sources limited by grid capacity in later years Hydro, geothermal, CSP* and bioelectricity provide demand-

driven electricity

*CSP=Concentrated Solar Power

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Bio: Crops

Bio: Comp.Fellings

Bio: Resid. & Waste

Geothermal

Hydropower

CSP

PV

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shore

Electricity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al en

erg

y (

EJ/

a)

Oth(N): Electricity

Oth(O): Electricity

Oth(G): Electricity

Oth(C): Electricity

Bio(C): Electricity

Bio(F): Electricity

Bio(R): Electricity

Geo: Electricity

Hydro

CS: Power

PV

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shore

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Bio: Crops

Bio: Comp.Fellings

Bio: Resid. & Waste

Geothermal

Hydropower

CSP

PV

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shoreSource: Ecofys

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Bio: Crops

Bio: Comp.Fellings

Bio: Resid. & Waste

Geothermal

Hydropower

CSP

PV

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shore

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Max

ium

um

sh

are

from

su

pp

ly-d

rive

n s

ourc

esElectricity grids need to be upgraded and extended for maximum RES power

Limit placed on supply-driven electricity: PV, Wave and Wind

Grids should be well-connected regionally; need to increase• capacity

• range of transmission lines

Need R&D, e.g. for better grid stability

• For ultra-high RES shares beyond 2030 require:

1. Grid improvements

2. Demand side management

3. Storage

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Final energ

y (E

J/a)

NuclearCoalNatural gasOilBio: AlgaeBio: CropsBio: Complementary FellingsBio: TraditionalBio: Residues & WasteHydropowerGeothermal HeatGeothermal ElectricitySolar thermalConcentrated Solar HeatConcentrated Solar PowerPhotovoltaic SolarWave & TidalWind: Off-shoreWind: On-shore

95% renewable energy worldwide by 2050 is possible

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

Source: Ecofys

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Global net costs will peak below 2% of GDP, and will turn to net savings after 2035

Net annual costs <2% before 2030

Net annual savings >2% by 2050

CapEx peaks at ~3% in 2030,

Savings increase steadily to ~3.5% in 2050

Barriers:

Short-term planning

Initial investments are still large

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

% o

f glo

bal G

DP

CapExOpExNet costs

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Final energ

y (E

J/a)

Non-renewable

Bio: Algae

Bio: Crops

Bio: Comp.Fell.*

Bio: Traditional

Bio: Res.&Waste

Geo: Heat

Solar thermal

Conc.Sol.:Heat

Hydropower

Geo: Electricity

Conc.Sol.:Power

Photovoltaic solar

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shore0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Final energ

y (E

J/a)

Non-renewable

Bio: Algae

Bio: Crops

Bio: Comp.Fell.*

Bio: Traditional

Bio: Res.&Waste

Geo: Heat

Solar thermal

Conc.Sol.:Heat

Hydropower

Geo: Electricity

Conc.Sol.:Power

Photovoltaic solar

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shore

The Energy Scenario requires strong actions from all stakeholders to be realised

Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Final energ

y (E

J/a)

Source: Ecofys

Demand Supply

Setting frame-works

(Incentives for) achieving performance standards on efficiency

Enable & incentiviseshift to a 100% RESpower system

Investments & R&D into grids

Investing in the future

Investment into retrofits

Investments & R&D into infrastructure

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Action points to reach a fully sustainable global energy system

Maximise energy efficiency to stabilise and reduce demand

Electrify to shift demand to the most abundant renewable energy sources

Prepare electricity grids for high

supply-driven share Scale up

renewable power options

Supply residual fuel and heat demand with

sustainable bio-energy Make initial

investments to reap net savings by 2040

Action by all stakeholders is required now

to change direction

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050

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Downloads

The Energy Reportcan be freely

downloaded from:

www.ecofys.com

The Energy Report - Transition to a fully sustainable global energy system by 2050