•../«*- ^fOfrf U-» '•**»»-<.,

AFFDL-TR-75-44

VOL II, PART I

WEAPON SYSTEM COSTING METHODOLOGY^^ FOR AIRCRAFT AIRFRAMES AND BASIC STRUCTURES VOLUME II • ESTIMATING HANDBOOK AND USER'S MANUAL • PART 1

GENERAL DYNAMICS CONVAIR DIVISION KEARNY MESA PLANT 5001 KEARNY VILLA ROAD SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA 92112

MAY 1975 -. \

TECHNICAL REPORT AFFDL-TR-75-44, VOLUME II FINAL REPORT FOR PERIOD JULY 1972 - FEBRUARY 1975

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

Prepared for AIR FORCE FLIGHT DYNAMICS LABORATORY Air Force Systems Command Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio

/'

Best Available

Copy

A

NOTICE

When Government drawings, specifications, or other data are used for any purpose other than in connection with a definitely related Government procurement operation, the United States Government thereby incurs no responsibility nor any obligation whatsoever; and the fact that the government may have formulated, furnished, or in any way supplied the said drawings, specifications, or other data, is not to be regarded by implication or otherwise as in any manner licensing the holder or any other person or corporation, or conveying any rights or permission to manufacture, use, or sell any patented invention that may in any way be related thereto.

ZAL M 'uint± R. N. MUELLER Project Engineer

FBRB

FOR THE COMMANDER:

Cr-g*^

GERALD G. LEIGH, Lt. Col., USAF Chief, Structures Division Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory

This report has been reviewed by the Infor- mation Office (01) and is releasable to the National Technical Information Service (NTIS). At NTIS, it will be available to the general public, including foreign nations.

Copies of,this report should not be returned unless return is required by security cousideratioaö, contractual obligations, or notice on a specific document.

I \C UXSSJl-'IKi) SE t'U Rl T V C l AS1»! M' ATION O* T HIV, ('A(,l (Whn* t*ttt« f-tiffiräi

REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE l.1_J3E1£.0nT NUMBTRy ,' .

Al-l'l)l,krH-7.r)--i4^\'( TT

Kl- Ai) INSTKrc TIONS 111- 1-Oh't- f OMI'M'IINl', K)KM

ff M^J-arM

l.(lVl ACL FSblON NO 3 PI C [I'll N T *'. ( A ' Ai E jt, N 11U H F H

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^KA"PnN.Sl'RTKM UOSTINC. MKTIinJKUxr.V FOH AJIK'IWKT AiKFIWMKS AND I.iASlC S'J'KCC'J'liKKS / N'olunic U * KstiitKil ini', lli.uiiil)f»ok and li.ser'.s Miuiual, i'art 1.

ft'flT rTTWn rrrrryrr F n

j'1'inal He|»art -

' JiuTnnRr«j

-A li. K./i\envi.in

B CONT.^CT OR GRANT »JUMBTI

l';j3(U5-72-C-208.3

9 PEBFORU1NO OHGANI Z ATION N AMF ANOAnORFSS

i'onviui" Division of tieneral Dynamics Kearny Mesa i'lanl, 5ÜÖ1 Kcamy Villa Hd.

19, PROGRAM ELLMtN r PHOJFCT TASK 7/>»fc*-»-WrJWK UNIT NUMBERS

1 ' CON TRÖi LING OFFICE NAME ANO ADDRESS

Air I'orce 1'li^il Dynamics Laboratory, Advanctxl Structures Division, Air Force System Comiiiimd. ^i.-ii;ln-l':iUt:raou AI'-U.-LUIJ. Uliio

äG8)Ö5 j

-^Aiav ®7." t: 13 N U M H E H O F P A G E S

_ / _L

I* MONITORING AGENCY NAME * AUDRE SSf l( i/l ((rronl Irnm ( onf/.il/ln« OMirfJ '5 SECURITY (.1 ASS f'./ (hi» rnp.irf

iiclassilled 15« DFCLASSlFlC ATION OOWNGHAOING

SCHEDULE

It DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (o( Ihl* H.porl)

Approved lor public release; distribution unlimited

17 DIST RIBUT ION ST AT EMENT (ol Ihr abnlrai t on I prod In ßlttCK JO. tl dlllerenl Irum Hofntrl)

IB SUPPL EMENT ARY NOT ES

'9 KEY WORDS (CotiUnue on rrverjip «((if it net »tattry mut Itlonlllv bv htafk numhori

parametric CHtimutinjz; airlrume costs design to cost airlrame cost estmiatrng aircralt structure cost estimaling tirst unit cost trade study costing structural cost data

20 ABSTRACT (Ctmttfw« <>€i rovorto nldo 11 ntirmatiry mid Idrnlity by block mtinbor)

This volume provides a detailed description ol the lunction ;uid use ol two weapon system costing methodologies lor aircralt airlfames :UKI basic structures developed lor the Air I'orce Flight Dynamics Daboraiory lor use in conceptual ;UKI preliminary designs phases ol weapon system development. The methods are a trade study costing method lor detailed cost analysis ol trudes-olT between weight, cost, type ol con- struction and typo ol' material and a system costing method for determining the pro-

DD I JAN*™ 1473 EDITION OF 1 NOV/ 65 IS OBSOL E T E UNCIASSIFIFD \ <■

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE f»7ir(i dnln Kntrtnl)

I

XT 1,A SSI I'M Kl)

St CD Rl TV Ci ASSIFICATION OF THIS PAG F.r»*>i«n Omlm Fniff*'!)

9 Key Words: (Cont inuodi cc)ni]xjsiU; structure costs

A1 0. AljHtnuM (t'onlinued'i

jec'tiui cost of :i eomplotf airtrame wilhin the conlexl of ;i weapon system dcvolopiticnl This volume describes how lo make ;ui estimate using either technique and shows Uie results of a demonstration case.

Tradeoff capability has been provided for a range of alternative structure :uul material combinations. A technique for independent assessing complexity factor has been developed ;md demonstrated. Manufacturing costs are separately estimated for the primary elements of substructure: ribs, spars, covers, leading edges, trailing edges, tips, etc. The trade study me'Jiud provides ;ui iierutive capability stemming from a direct interface with design synthesis programs. A detailed cost data base ;uid system for data expansion is provided. The methods are designed for ease in changing cost estimating relationships and estimating coefficients resulting from cost data update.

UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGEfltTlon 0«(» Rtilrnrnd)

FOHKWUUI)

Tliis repnrl was pri'parwl by llie CoiU'air Division ot (.'icilera] Dynamics, San Diogu, (■aliloi-ma, luulcr I SA F C'onlracl l',!:!(il .l-TI'.-C ■ li()M;i. 'J'hu uoalracl, LiLled "Weapon Systrni Costing Mothodology lor Airrr;d"l Airlramcs ;uul Haste Siruclurcs, " was mitiaU'd muk'i- Prujerl DiGy, "Atlviuircd Sli-ucturcs lor Military Aerospace' Vehicles,"

■J'ask I.'KUSOL!, "Slruclural Integration for Military Aeros]>ace Vehicles."

The work was administered under the direction of the Air Force Flight Dynamics Luboratory, Structures Division, Wright Patterson Air Force Fase, Ohio, under the direction ul Mr. R. N. Mueller (AFFDL/FBRB) as I'rojeet Fugineer.

This report covers work conducted from July 1972 to February 1975 and was sub- mitted by the author in February 1975, under Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory Report No. TR-75-4'1 as a Final Report. This reixjrt includes one additional volume: Volume 1, Teclmical Volume. Both Volume 1 :ind 11 are final technical reports.

The following Interim Technical Report volumes have been issued under this program as AFFDF-TR-7;i-129:

Volume 1: Cost Methods Research K- Development Volume II: Supporting Design SynthesF Programs Volume 111: Cost Data Base Volume IV: Fstimating Techniques Handbook

The principal author and project leader on this program is Mr. R. F. Kenyon, under the administration of Mr. G. F. Vail, Chief of Fconomic Analysis and Mr. A. Van Duren, Manager of ü])erations Research, others who contributed to the studies and who contributed in the preparation of this report include Messrs. .]. M. Youngs ;unl R. .1 Ueid, Fconomic Analysis; B. II. Oman, W. D. lloneycutt, ajidT. F. Reed, Mass Properties; F. M. Peterson ;ind C . S. Kruse, Structural Analysis; C. C. Clark, Analytical Programming; and T. Kell, Industrial Fuginecring.

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IXTHoDrCTioX 1

1.1 HOW TO MAKK AN KSTIAIA'!" 1-. 2

1.1.1 'J'r;ul(- Studv l-;sl imal inu, Method 2

1. l.'J Svslcm Cost I'isl im;it iiiii, Mnihoil 17

1.2 OHCIANI/ATION ()]• TIIK HAXDI'.ooK 2-1

TKADK STIDV COST K.STIMATIXO Ml/nioi) 20

2. 1 COSTS KSTIMATKD 2(i

2.2 COST MODKI. COMPITKK I'ÜOOWAM IM

2.2. 1 Control Curds . , :M

2.2.2 Prounim Deck :i(;

2.2.,') Input Catxis 2)7

2.2.4 The CoSTC ['rogram 40

2.2.5 input Organization 41

2.,') COST KST1.MAT1XC. P i: LATIOXSI11 PS AXÜ

INI'PT J)i:SCHIPTl(JX 42

2.;i. 1 First Pnit Cost 42

2.2.2 Recurrinp; Production Costs By Struclui-ai Klcmont ... 117

2. 2.15 Nonrecurring Drsij^n ;UK1 Dcvolopmcnt 119

2.2.4 Kccurrinu, Aii'lrarnc Protluclion Costs (Summaiy) .... 120

2.2.;! Complexit.v Factors 125

2.2.0 Derivation of Fstimating CoolTudcnts 127

2.4 PiKXlRAM OP K PAT ION AND 1XSTPF OiK )XS 141

2.4. 1 Coinjuitcr Program Inlegi'aUon 141

2.4.2 Operation ol'Supporting Programs 142

2.4.2 Time Sharing 142

AiHFPAMF SVSrJd-;.M COST FSTIMATINC MlvTHOD 14,r)

2. 1 COSTS FSTi.MATFD 145

2.2 COST MODFI. COMPFTFK PKOGPAM MODFLF 140

2.2 COST FSTIMATINC KF IVCriONSlII PS ANi.)

INPUT DluSCPJP'i'lON 140

2.3.1 Nonrecurring Design and Development 147

3.2.2 First Unit Costs 159

3.3.3 Hecurring Production Costs 101

3.4 PROGRAM OPERATION AND INSTRUCTION 105

v

TA1U.K OF CONTKNTS (ConLinuetl)

1'Airi 1

Section Page

IN' DKMONSTUATIUN IUN.S ]ij(>

■1. 1 TilAJ)K STIDV DKIMONb'TllATlON HIN 107 ■1.2 SYhTKM COST KSTIMA'J'LNCI UKMONSTHATION

lU'N 108 •}.;i COMBINKD MK'J'IIODS (JPKIIATJON 170 1. 1 ABDRKVIA'J'KU HUNS 171 4.5 KSTLMATINC. ACCL'HACY 171

PART 11

Appendix

A INin/T DATA DKCK LISTING AND MODEL CARD KXPI.AXATION 1

13 IN ITT KLKMENTS LISTING 63

C SAV MATRIX PRINTOUT G8

D NAMi: LIST VAHIADLKS DICTIONARY 7G

E SUMMARY OF F-CAIÜ3 VARIABLES 85

F KSTLMATINC COLFFICIFNTS BACK-UP 91

G TYPES OF MATERIAL AND CONSTRUCTION TECHNIQUES 192

II MATERIAL COST ESTIMATING COEFFICIENTS 236

I TRADE STUDY NONRECURRING COST ESTIMATING FACTORS 243

J SUPPORTING PRCXIRAMS DATA TRANSFER 257

K AIRFRAME SYSTEM COST ESTIMATING PROGRAM MODULE 289

L SYSTEM COST ESTIMATING METHOD BACK-UP DATA 312

M TRADE STUDY DEMONSTRATION CASE 343

REFERENCES 353

VI

LIST OK ll.LrSTRATIONS

Kigure Page

1 'J'nulr Study Cost Kslimutlng Method ,'!

I Wing First In it Cost 4

:i Wing IIDTKK Costs 5

4 Recurring Aui'ramG Produetion Cost (Summary) 6

5 Nonrecurring Design and Development Costs 7

G CKH Examples - Trade Study Kstimating Method tor Manufacturing first Unit Cost 8

7 Computer Program Deck Set-l'p 1U

8 Examples of Model Card Entries 11

9 Input and Input .Source Examples 12

10 Cost Model Input Summary 13

i 1 Input Development 14

12 Fuselage - Nacelle - Landing Gear Structural Weights 10

13 System Cost Estimating Method 18

14 Nonrecurring Design and Development Cost - Page 1 19

15 Nonrecurring Design and Development Cost - Page 2 ....,., 20

IG First Fait Costs 21

17 Recurring Airl'rame Production Cost 22

18 Typical CFRs - System Cost Estimating Method 23

19 Wing First Unit Cost 27

20 Horizontal Stabilizer First Unit Cost 28

21 Vertical Stabilizer First Unit Cost 29

22 Fuselage First Unit Cost 30

23 Nacelles First Unit Cost 31

24 Landing Gear First Unit Cost 32

25 Cost Model General Flow Diagram 39

VII

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37

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40

41

42

I.IST < »I- 11,1.1 STUATK )\S (Colil tinicd)

NAM Kl.1ST Inpuls lor Slfuclural Box and Fuselage I'.asie

Slructurc IJclnil l';iJ)i'ii';it ion Hours 51

NAMIM.IST Inputs lor Structural 1'ox ;UKI Kusclagu I'asir

Strudurc Suhasscmbly Hours 00

NAM 1.1.1ST Inputs lor Structural Box ami I'usclagc 15asif

Structure Major AsscniMy Hours 71

NAMIM.IST Inputs tor Scvoiulary Slructurc Detail

I'ahricalion ;ui(l Subasscmbly Hours 75

NAMIM.IST Inputs lor Secondary Structure Component

Ma'or Assembly Hours JO.'I

NAMIM.lS'l' Inputs lor SlruMural Box luid 1'uselage Basic

Structure Material 10b

.NAMIM.IST InpulH lur Secondary Structure Structural

Material Cost Ill

NAMIM.IST Inputs lor Assembly Material Costs 115

Hecurrin^ AirlTame Production Costs (Summary) 132

Cost ng Proeess 13G

Development ol Complexity factors 138

Detailed Industrial Knglaeering Kstimates lor Complexity

factor Derivation 139

Summary ol" CPU CoelTicients 140

Detail Fabrication Horn's Versus Weight for Ribs with

Complexity Factor Norm 141

Supporting Synthesis Program tor Aerodynamic

Surfaces 143

Supixjrting Synthesis Program for Fuselage, Nacelles, 144

Banding Clears

Airframe System Cost Fstimating Stiiietures 145

vi n

LIST OF TAHI.KS

'■ahlr I'aRC

1 Acnulvnamic Surl'accs Structural WeipJU.s 10

2 Sumrmu'y ul Cost l'i'inloul.s lor .<, Trade Study Kstimate .'i.'i

;{ Cost Output, CKH Kquation, ;uid Alocicd Card Cross Hcfercnec - Wing I'irsl liiit Cost ■Hi

4 Cost Outpul, CKH Hquatiou, antl Model Card Cross Reference - Horizontal Slahilizer I'irsl Init Cost 44

") Cost Output, CKH Kquation, and Model Card Cross Heierence - Vertical Stabilizer First Unit Cost 43

G Cost (Xitput, CHR Kquation, aiTd Model Card Cross licl'ercncc - F'usclage First Knit Cost 46

7 Cost (Xitput. CKH Kquation, and Model Card Cross Reference - Nacelle First Unit Cost 47

8 Cost (Xitput, CKH Kquation, and Model Card Cross Reference - Handing Gear First Unit Cost 48

9 Aerodynamic Surfaces Rib Complexity Factors - Detail F'abrication 52

10 Fuselage Frame and Bulkhead Complexity Factors -Detail Fabrication 53

11 Aerodynamic Surfaces Spars Complexity Factors -Detail Fabrication 54

12 Fuselage Longeron Complexity Factors -Detail Fabrication .... 55

l.'i Aerodynamic Surfaces Covers Complexity Factors - Detail Fabrication 5()

14 Fuselage Covers Complexity Factors, Detail Fabrication 57

15 Cost Per Pound Factors (111.) Map 58

16 Aerodynamic Surfaces Rib Complexity Factors - Subassembly 01

17 Fuselage Krame and Bulkhead Complexity Factors - Subassembly G2

ix

LIST ( )!■' TAHM-IS (Cont inuiMh

able1 Pu^c

is Ai'i'odNTiaiilic Surl'ucos Spars Complexity Factors, Sulmssemblv H.'J

1!) Fuselage LangercniH Cumploxity Factors, Subassumbly 04

'10 Aerodynamic Surfaces Covers Complexity Factors - Subasscmbly 05

21 Fuselage Skin Panel Complexity Factors - Subasscmbly GG

■Z-2 Cost Per Pound Factors (IIF ) Map G7 i

'2'A Fastener Type Installation Factor 72

24 Structural Box ;ind Basic Structure Major Assembly Factors - Map and Factor Values 73

d0 Secondary Structure Detail Fabrication Complexity Factors, CB 77

i

2G Secondary Structure Subasscmbly Complexity Factors, CC. . . . . 85

27 Cost Per Pound Factors - (WC.) Map 9:3

2« Cost Per Pound Factors - (WF.) Map 97

29 Factor Values and F-Card Location 104

'JO Secondary Structure Assembly Complexity Factor (CMB) 105

in Primary Structure Raw Material Cost Factor (RMC) 109

32 Primary Structure Material Scrappage Factor (SF) 109

33 Secondary Structure Raw Material Cost Factors (RMC) 113

34 Secondary Structure Scrappagc Factor (SF) 113

35 Assembly Material Cost Map and Factor Values 114

3G Fastener Type Complexity Factor Related to Assembly FM .... 116

37 Cost Output and Model Card Cross Reference - Wing Recurring Production Costs 120

38 Cost (Xitput, CFR Equation Number, and Model Card Cross Reference - Nonrecurring Design and Developmeit Costs . . . 121

39 Engineering Labor CER Coefficient 123

UST OK TAlil.KS (Coiitinucd)

Table Page

-1U I'ool Manuracluriiiji,- Hours CHH Coetiicienl 12G

■11 Cost Output and Model Card Cross Reference Hecurring Production Costs (Summary) 131

42 Cost Output, Cl'Ai liquation, ;uid Ahxlcl Card Cross Kcl'crencc - Nonrecurring Design and Development Cost . . . 148

43 Cost Output, CEP Ivquation Number and Model Card Cross Hei'orence - System First Unit Cost 1GÜ

44 Cost Output, CKR Equation Number and Model Card Cross Hol'erence ■ System Recurring Production Cost 102

XI

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SKCTIDN 1

INTltODrC'l'lON

l'his vnlmm' in the lonti ol' an K.slimalini; Handbook and I'scr's Manual provides the msl rtK'Uon.s iicccssary lor makilifi; :i cost t\stiinalr usinu, ci Hier what is rdiri-cd to as the trade study rosi rstim.iiir.o inctiiod or the aii'lraiiH' system cost esüniaUng method, ll deserilies these estimating teelini(|ues in terms ol inpuLs and outputs of the eomputer- i/ed programs used, the eost eslimatiiiK relaLioaslüps involved, the organization imd sourees ol inputs, ineludin^, other supporting eomputer programs, and the eost model eompuler program. An example estimate in the lorm ol a demonsiraiion ease is also deserihed. The Kslimaling Handbook together with a Teehnieal Volume comprise the final Report lor Air Force Contract K.'i.'itilö-Tj!-C'-^t)s:i. The Technical Volume supple- ments this duscussion by describing the development ol' the methods, by defining eost categories, and by discussing some of the liiuitations of the methods. The emphasis in this volume is on the user's point of view and thus on the mechanics of the procedure The two estimating methods to be discussed are distinct in terms of the categories of cost involved, the level of detail at which estimates are made, the cost estimatLng re- lationships involved, and the resulting inputs and input sources. The trade study method involves a very detailed level of estimaiing for basic structure only. The sys-

tem costing method involves a higher (subsystem) level but includes both structural and

mechanical subsystems of the aircraft airframe. The term awlrame, which may be used in conjunction with either method, is defined as including only basic structure in the case of the trade study method but as including basic structure plus mechanical subsystems in the ease of the system method. The different sets of input required for each method in turn entail a different output from the area of preliminary design sup- ])ort, or specifically from the supporting design syntliesis programs in the case ol the

trade study method.

The trade study estimating technique, in general, requires that the supporting design synthesis programs operate in an iterative manner, although, point design estimates can be made with the input data being developed manually. The number of inputs re- quired initially to set up a run is quite extensive. Generally, however, only a few in- put variations are required for subsequent trade study alternatives.

A combined trade study-system method mode of operation may be selected. This is based on a modular estimating approach wherein both subsystem level CEHs and de- tailed estimating routines are available for structural subsystems. This option is ex- ercised by zeroing out one or the other method selectively by subsystem. Thus, a structural element of particular interest may be estimated in detail with the remaining elements being- estimated at an aggregate level.

The lollowing KulkScftinii ol ilic ini rocluclion pruvidcs an overview ol both cKtiiiKcUn^ HU'IIKKLS to .tn.suiT ihr qMi'Htion: How to make an csli male? Tiic organization ol' Mic handbook i.1- then (k-sci'ihcd. 11' Hie InliTcst is in .simply making an csUmaLc, the reader may wish to begin study ol the method with this volume rather than Volume 1,

1. I HOW TO MAKK AN KSTLMATK

1,1.1 TKADK S'lTDV luSTLMATliNc; M K'J'IIOi;. FlRure 1 gives an ouüine ol' the trade study estimating method and the flow of information required in this process. In this deseription of the method, which is intended to provide an introduction only, the dis- cussion will begin with the cost output and work backwards through the various phases ol' (he program to the procedure tor the- development ol' input data.

The cost output is described and defined by the computer printout formats, samples of which are given in figures 2 through 5, These represent a complete set of computer printouts except that two additional Recurring Production (Manufacturing) Cost print- outs are provided for two alternative production quantities, and also that this series of printouts is provided for each of the structural elements: wing, horizontal stabil- izer, vertical stabilizer, fuselage, nacelles and landing gear.

The Cost Model, comprising the cost estimating logic, consists of sets of CEHs devel- oped for each of the items of cost identified in the computer printouts. These CEHs are described in Section 2.3. Their derivation is discussed in Volume i. Figure 0 gives examples of manufacturing first unit CEHs for labor and material. .Many other forms aw involved. Manufacturing First Unit Cost Is an estimating' convention based on using' theoretical first unit cost as the basis for estimating manufacturing costs.

It is sometimes necessary to augment the standard procedure, as represented by the CFits, with special procedures and analyses. These require definition tor each in- dividual ease and may or may not be of a nature to permit Incorporation in the main body of CEHs,

The estimating method makes use of an existing general cost program, designated as COSTC, that operates as a data manager program and handles the cost estimating logic as a program input. This provides a simple means of modifying' cost estimating relationships. These are accomplished simpb, by changing an input model card and the corresponding input variable(s). This program Is discussed further in Section 2.2,

The total set of CEHs generates the variable Input requirement entered In the pro- gram as NAMELIST variables. These, together with the model cards, constitute the input package. The model cards, which Include the CEH entries, constitute an input whenever they are to be revised. They may be revised for either of two reasons: (1 ) as previously mentioned, to change the form of a CEH, or (2) to change« an esti- mating coefficient. These coefficients appear as constants within the CEHs, and

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hasKi mi hislcirica I data, inpnl cai cij.orii-s a re dclcniiincd willi res perl lo I lie cos I

nindid lonipuler prn^ram dcscfihcd in Scciion J.'.i.

I'lic nmipulcr program deck sd-up Ls illu.st rated by l;i,mirr 7. The iirogi'iun deck

(■(insists nl' the C'()S,i'(' general cest pru^ram. Iii|iuts (■(unprisc NAM MI,IST SI/K,

NAM i: LIST (TliVI-;, ajid Model Car;.' entries. Sample model card entries are illus-

trated in l-'ir.ure s. This is a very limited sample, the letal Model Card Deck eonsis-

ting, as if does, of approximaleiv (iäO entries. The himtions ol the model eai'd are

explainei' in Sei-tion 2.2. l''ii;iire i) ^i\ cs an example of t he rel at ions hip hel\\ cen in-

puts (and input sources) and the CKH. A general idea of the input or;j,ani/.ai ion is fnr-

nished liy figure 10. It should be noted that numerous additional CKH forms and in-

put relationships are involved as mii;ht be suspected from the number of mode! card

entries involved. Section 2.2 provides a complete cost model computer program des-

cription, including COSTC program .subroutines, model card listing, input listings,

XAMKLLST variables dictionary, ami an estimatuig coefficients summary and locator.

Section 2..,i identities cac1- of the CKKs involved and relates then to the computer

program.

Input development is illusl rated by figure 11. The option ol'CKR revisions, shown in

Figure Id, is excluded, however, since such changes, although 1 lie rally handled as

inputs, arc best thought of in a separate category. Input development is then defined

as being within the context of an existing set of CKKs,

As shown by Figure 11, various synthesis program runs are required to support the

development of inputs. These provide design information required in the estimating

process. There are three such programs: (1 ) An Automated Program for Aerospace

-- Vehicle Synthesis (Ai'ASj, (2 ) A Program for Development of Aircrab Fuselage,

Nacelle and Landing (iear Weights, and (,'J) The Tip, Leading and Trailing Kdge Analy-

sis Program. The first of these in turn supports the second. The third program oper

ales independenllv. A technical description of these programs is given in Section V

of Volume I.

Fach of these programs also has an input requirement. Those input requirements,

operating Instructions for program runs, and output data transfer worksheets are

covered in Section 2.4 of this Handbook,

The weight analysis for aerodynamic surfaces primary structure involves the use of

correlation factors applied to the output of APAS. These factors arc in turn based on

weights research data from studies conducted concurrently with but separate from

this study, A separate design synthesis and weight analysis procedure, the Tip,

Leading ;uid Trailing Kdge Analysis Program, is used for aerodynamic surfaces sec-

ondary structure. These results, combined with those for primary structure, result

in data such as shown in Table 1. Correlation factors are calculated as the ratio ol"

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Figure 30, Cost Model Input Summary,

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Table 1, Aerodynamic Surlaccs SI inichiral Weights

1'arl Aetna! Synlhesis Coi'iTlation Definition Weight Weight Factor

A-X Wing

Inter-Spur Cover 7;3() (572 1.12 Spar.s .|J(i 2H(i i.i:!

Ribs aiG (iO 5.27 Leading Kdge K- Tip 12,r) Kiti 0.75 Trailing Kdge 52 i)2 0.5(1 Ailemivs 4i) 24 1..S7 Flaps & Forel'laps ;i5!) 281 1.28 Slats 278 198 1.40 Spoilers H'A I'M 0.(57

Does Not Include: 1. Misc. Structure: 88 lbs 2. Aileron Balance Wts,: 45 lbs

actual weight to synthesis weight. They provide a measure of the credibility of the synthesized weight and can be used as analogs in estimating similar structural cle- IIK'HUS,

The weight analysis for fuselage structure, both primary and secondary, is handled by

the Program for Development of Aircraft Fuselage, Nacelle and Landing Gear Weights driven by the Al'AS program. It provides weights data as shown in Figure 12.

Historical data is used to develop various factors; learning curve factors; scaling exponents; engineering, tooling, and manufacturing factors; and material cost factors.

The tables summarizing' these factors, the location in the Handbook of back-up data, and the model card deck location of the CFRs in which these factors are used are given in Section 2. 3,

The development of baseline costing factors and complexity factors is interrelated. Their development is fully explained in Volume 1, Section 11. Briefly, the following steps are involved:

a. Development of complexity factors for primary structure by means of an industrial engineering analysis relating alternate types of construction and material to a baseline hardware clement of known cost, thereby indicating cost ratios.

b. The normalization of historical data by weight and by type of construction and material.

15

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f. l'lir tlcrivatiuii ol t'MUs l'i'um the iKirmali/.cd ilala, a^snniiii^ thai the si^nil icaal i'osl ri'lalcd varialilr.s arc wri^hl, l.\'|U' i>t (•oiKSlnictioil, and lypi1 of malrnal, and lurllitT thai a iniisi.stcnt scaliji^ rclaliini.shit) is applicahlc.

il, The i'i iiitiiiiinij; cDJli'i'tiDii of historical cost data und uixlalc ol tile C.'KH dcid\ations.

The Indiist i'iai cnidiicciaii^ analysis im csliu,;itcs inanulactii i'injj.opi'rat ions associated vsith various categories ol hardware const ruclion and material t\|)cs and delennincs a

numerical relalionship to a nominal element of hardware that utili/.es a haseline type

ol construction and material. The individual niumifacTurixig operations are cvuluulfd li\ means of standard hours and a ratio ol cost is est;ildished as a measure of complexUy,

The original intent of this study was to deal only with primary structure, il was reco^-

ni/cil early in the study, however, that the secondary structure was of equal .significance from a cost standpoint, and the cITort was redirected accnrdinglv. Hardware elemenfs making up secondary structure do not tend In tall into type of construction categories as conveniently as do those of primary structure. This complication is reflecled inthe complexity factor tables for secondary stniclurc.

A provision is Included in the method for applying learning curve factors at the detailed level shown in figure 2, Development of the factors themselves was not included with- in the scope of the study. Values for these factors may be supplied by the user, how- ever, according to available data.

Labor rates are Lnput.s to the model. Kconomic escalation relating to labor may be luuidled through these inputs. Variations in labor costs, as for example differences be- tween manufacturers, can thus be accounted for,

1.1.2 .SYSTKAl COST KSTLMATINC. MKTiJOi). figure Ki gives an outline of the sys- tem cost estimaling method and the flow of information required in this process. The cost output is defined by the set of computer printouts shown as figures 11 through 17. The Cost Model consists ol sets of CKH.s developed for each of the items of cost identi-

fied in the compuler printouts. These C'fKs are described in Section ;j.;i. Their der-

ivation is discussed in Volume I. Figure Us gives examples of a lew of the various types of (,' Kite used.

The estimating method makes use of the same genera! cost program as the trade study

method. The computer program module for the system costing model is described in

Section .'!.-. The conveiitioas regarding NAM f LIST variable inputs, model cards and model card changes is similar to (he trade study method.

The computer program deck set-up for system costing is the same as for the trade stud\ method illustrated in figure T. Variations occur in the use of control cards, title card, and option card. Inpu's comprise NAMflTST CURVH, NAMKLIST SUM- MARY, and Model Card entries. Individual subsets of model cards are assigned to

17

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each m rll in, I. I hi' i rial iniiship hd ween inputs and (' F'Ks is si milaf to the Traclr SI iiil\

mi 'Iioil. A urmral idea nl liir inpul nr^anizalinn is In rnishcd by (''igurc ]'.'•. Scclion

ii. L' provides a cumpli'lr dcsi'tiplion of dial port ion of Lhc cost model computer pro-

gram fotiiprtsin^ ilie system costing meihod.

Ijiput de\ elnniiieiit Pir Mir SNsiem i'nstiti^, method can lie explained with reference to

I'iL'.mv l.'l. Weights data i.1- oiitainol from a standard grouj) v\'clg'hl statement. Com-

plexity factors, sealiiu; factor:-', eslimalim; factors, and factors for Inflation and

learning are derived from bistoi-ica! cost data. The concept of complexity at this level ol estimating is different than at the trade study level. Speed is used as a cost relat-

ed variable in estimating one (lenient of cost and is ohtaiued from the design data.

Lahor rates are selected and input as appropriate. Production rales and '[iiantities

are obtained from program schedules.

The development ol baseline costing factors and complexity factors is again inter-

related. Thei r de\ i lopmeni is explained in Volume 1, Section ILL.

In the system costing method, manufacturing costs are estimated in dollars by combin-

ing labor and materials. This introduces the need for considering economic escala-

tion and the time reference for dollar values. In the trade study method, labor and

material are separated and only material costs require an adjustment for inflation.

The iwo estimating methods can lie used in a combined mode whereby a detailed first

unit cost estimate from 'he trade study method can be substituted for the comparable

estimate of the system costing method. This mode might be used, for example, when

a detailed analysis is required for only one structural comixment while, at the same

time, a total airframe system estimate is needed,

1.2 OIUIANI/ATION Of TIIK HANDBOOK

The remainder ol the handbook provides complete instructions in the use of the methods

briefly described above. The remainder of this section describes the Handbook

organization.

Both estimating methods are described in detail: the Trade Study Method in Section 11

and the System Costing Method in Section HI, Similar outlines are followed for each

description. The complete set of computer printouts is described under Costs Ksti-

mated. The cost model computer program is completely described in Section 2.2.

This description is supplemented by appendices that replicate pertinent portions of the

program. Section 2..'i provides a type listing of all CElls used, gives input summaries

organized by cost category and related to the CERs, cross references items of cost

and the corresponding CER, identifies the location of the model card calling' out a

given calculation, summarizes the values used for estimating coefficients, and locates

the relevant back-up data. Section 2.4 gives additional instructions covering the sub-

mittal of Hie program deck to the computer operation. 24

Sivlinn HI provides ;i siinllai' I real incut for flic H^stnn msliiij; mi'ihud, iiltlM>u;,,,i modi-

lied 1)\" didnviu'cs in tin■ tvU'tliod,s and li\ the simplil iraliui 11 'mi Hie use uL' a cominnn

rdmpnlcr program. Section I \' doscTihcs a domonMlration CUKC poid'onuod tor thrco lHiriK)ScS;

a. To iliusli'atc the dcscripl ion oi inothod.s,

1). 'i'o dt'inoiihl rate tho fstitiuillng cai)al)ilil\.

v, I'd provklo a huyin for losting Ihr LaslallaUnn of llic capability al AFKDL.

Included In the discussion ol tJic demonstration cases in Section IV is a discussion of

how Lhe two methods e;in be used in a eombinod fashion.

2.r)

SKCTION n

TRADK .STUDY COST KSTIMATING Mi;TII()D

TliiK section describes the trade study cost estimating method and provides the user with the instructions necessary for making an estimate, including ini'ormalion relevant to the supporting design synthesis programs involved. The subject of methods research and development is covered either in Volume 1 or in previous reports, as referenced.

2. 1 COSTS KST1.MATKD

Costs are estimated in a variety of ways for each of the following hardware com- ponents:

Aerodynamic Surfaces: Wing Horizontal Stabilizer Vertical Stabilizer

Fuselage

Nacelles

Landing Gears

The different tyi^es of cost outputs provided consist of:

a. First Unit Manufacturing Costs

b. RDT&F Units Manufacturing Costs

c. Production Units Manufacturing Costs - Quantity 1

d. Production Units Manufacturing Costs - Quantity 2

e. Nonrecurring Design and Development Costs

f. Recurring Production Costs - Summary

The combination of components and types of output produces 3G separate printouts for a given cost estimate. Shown in Section 1.1.1 was four types of output corresponding to a, b, e, and f above. Output types c and d are identical to type b except for the production quantity involved. The variation in output format by hardware component is illustrated by Figures 19 through 24, representing first unit cost for each com- ponent. The 3G printouts are summarized in Table 2, The haixlware components

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o H

1—I •.-« ^

o > bß

d i—i

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tfl

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1 OJ

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33

lisU'tl rninprisc llu> basic struclmv, or "airframi-, " when relaLcd to li'adf study nu'lluHlolngy.

I'l'oduclioii ((uantities art' obtaint'd liy learning curve projections of the first unit costs for each item of cost broken out. This |x>rniits giving effect to different degrees of learning involved in different ty|K'K of material and construction.

The relationship of the above subset of costs to a complete weapon system cost slmcture and to the CTR definitions of cost elements is covered in Volume I, Section

2.:.1 COST MODI- I, COMPUTKR PROGKAM

The computer program serves to organize the cost eslimuting task. The estimating process is accomplished in terms of going to the proper sources for the necessary input data, evaluating estimating coefficients in view of additional data acquisition and previous estimating results, and setting up the computer program dec1.;. The cost estimating logic is also of immediate relevance, but its discussion has been deferred to Section 2.3 so that computer oriented terminology will have been covered.

The cost model computer pi'ogrum makes use of a general cost model program (desig- nated as COSTC) taking advantage of certain features of that program. COSTC is a data manager program written in FORTRAN IV for the CDC CYBFH 72. Features include treating the cost estimating logic as a program input, handling the cost output as an array (called the SAV matrix) in a manner whereby it is both addressable and displayable, and providing for a consistent pattern of costing in going from one hard- ware element to the next.

Treaing the estimating logic as a program input provides a simple means of modify- ing cost estimating relationships. These are accomplished simply by changing an input model card and making an appropriate input variable change. Changes to esti- mating coefficients, which might, for example, result from additional analyses of historical cost data, can be accomplished simply by an input model card change; and if a time-sharing set-up is being used, this cam be done on the card and graphically on a CRT display by means of a keyboai'd control.

Use of the SAV array printout provides for a display of intermediate computational results and permits the cost analyst to utilize computational results that are not typically available in a cost output format. Kleinents in this array may be used as terms in the cost estimating relationships.

The deck set-up for the complete cost program was shown in Figure 7. As can be seen, the major elements of the pi'ogram are the control cards, the program deck, title and option cards, the variable input, i.e. , NAMKL1ST, section of the input

34

scclioii, and the1 model cards of this same section. The various elements of the program, including a NAMKUST variable dictionarv and a summary of estimatiag coefficients, are described in the following sections,.

2.2. 1 CONTKOI. CARDS. The control cards entail an optional compiler usage. At Convair the program is compiled with the "RUN" compiler, but it may be compiled by either "HUN' or "FTN" compilers. The control cards for the use of i source deck with the "HUN" compiler are:

RUN.

l.GO.

REWIND (TAPI-: 5)

COPYSBF (TAPK 5, OUTPUT)

KXJT.

The control cards for source decks under the "FTN" compiler are:

FTN.

I,GO.

RKWIND (TAPK 5)

COPYSBF (TAPK 5, OUTPUT)

EXIT.

The control cards for binary decks under either compiler are:

INPUT.

REWIND (TAPK 5)

COPYSBF (TAPK 5, OUTPUT)

KKIT.

The control cards for updating a routine and executing the updated package with the "RUN" compiler are:

RUN (P)

COPYBR (LOO, DISK)

HKWIND (LOO, DISK)

COPYL (DISK, UH), NPL)

HKWIND (NPL)

NHL.

HKWIND CTAPK 5) 35

COPYSBF (TAl'i: T,, OUTimT)

ixrr.

7 8!)

2.2.2 PHOOHAjVj DKCK. The pTOgram deck consists of the COSTC general cost pro- gram, |)lus subroutines and functions as follows:

Driver: Program COSTC

The driver initiulizos all variables, reads in the input cards, checks program options, and executes various subixJUUncs as "KEY" input cards are recognized.

Subroutine: C.KTPAR

This routine determines what is contained in each field often characters of the '/' and 'W cards and returns this Information.

Subroutine: SKAECII

This routine searches the variable mime array and returns the sub- script that corresponds to the name requested.

Subroutine: KXPR

This routine evaluates the expression between parenthesis used by the 'F' card.

Subroutine: CHECK

This routine checks to see If the next caixl is a continuation card.

Subroutine: TITLE

This rouUne is used tu print titles.

Function: PWORD

This function selects nonblank characters from variable names and left adjusts them in PWORD.

Function: NUMBER

This function gets an integer from any vector between given locations.

Function: MRGCRD

This function checks for several of the "KEY" denoters for the

merge option.

Subroutine: RECORD

This subroutine' Interrogates input cards for a line location in the

SAV array. 3ü

KuncLion: ICH Kl,IN

This function checks lines in the array SAV for zero values.

Subroutine: FINDINT

This subroutine finds the single integer up to ÜÜ from an input field.

Subroutine: TMKRGK

This subroutine merges new input cards with the current cost model.

Function: ROUND

This function rounds a real number to two decimal places.

Function: VALUE

This function finds the value of a term, parameter, or a coefficient.

Subroutine: FQFVA1.

This subroutine is the driver for the 'F' cards of the model cards.

Function: IPACK

This function packs characters of input fields for input to subroutine GFTPAR.

Subroutine: UNPAK

This subroutine puts data into a predetermined number of separate words for output.

Function: TERM

This function computes terms involving parameters and coefficients. Coefficients are input as real numbers and parameters are variable inputs or recalled sums.

Subroutine: RFADW

This subroutine reads input variables from the namelists, SIZE, CURVE, and SIM MARY.

2.2.3 INPUT CARDS. The input cards consist of the following subsets:

TITLE CARD

OPTION CARD

NAME LIST INPUT CARDS

MODEL CARDS

37

A general flow iliugnun uf Die in|)ul secjuence is shown in Figure 25. A printout of a

complete set of input cards is shown in Appendix A.

The Title card user SO columns of alphanumeric data to he printed as the main title.

The Option can! is composed as follows:

Column

1-5 CI.KAR 11 this -,-ord is punched in this field, the variables are set to O before reading tiie new variables.

blank II the field is blank, the variables used in the previous case are not cleared before reading new variables.

(i-l() CAIIDS If the model is going to be read from cards.

TAPF2 If the model cards arc either on Tape 2 for the first

case only or the previous cost model Lnfonnation is to be reused.

MKRGT If the model cards are either merged from card input

and TAPK2 for the fii'st case only or the previous model

data is merged with revised cards thereafter.

11-15 Integer that s|X3cifiei. the maximum number of variables to be used by an element of the model.

ni-20 Name of Element 1, i.e., Wing

21-25 Name of Kloment 2, i.e., Horizontal Stabilizer

2(J-30 . . . etc. .. .

Columns (.MO of the Option card control the form of the input data. TAPE 2 indicates

that the model cards have been entered on tape by appropriate request. Entering the word MKHGl provides for obtaining input from both TAPE and new input cards and is used for any change in input values or CERs for multicase runs.

When the MERGE option is being used, the program will assume that a baseline model

has been previously stored on tape and that the cards contained in tue Cost Model section of input are to be merged with the baseline model to produce and process an updated

model. The following rules should be observed when merging:

a. '/■, R and F cards only can be merged.

b. When replacing an element of the SAV matrix all the terms that make up that element should be replaced.

38

KKAJ) IN m 'J'

(■A1Ü)S

i INlTIAl.T/K V'AHIAHLK.S

AND AHI1AYS

I CALL KKAJJW

i C'lll-X'K

MHIIGK

urTiuN

C1IKCK COLU.MN 1 VOli KEY AND GO TO

PROCESSING LOCATION LN PROGRAM

i CALL ANY ROLTINLS

NLLDLD FOR PHOCLSSJNG

i STORL ANS WICH IN SAV MATRIX

BY LINK &

COLliMN

I1'' YLS MKRGL

NLW LNPL'J-S

WITH LXLSTING MODKL

STOP 11' AN 'L' KK\ IS

KNCOi ;NTLRKD

Figure 2B, Cost Model General Flow Diagram.

39

i. Mci'gc cinls should he nnlfivd nioiuitDiiicilly iiici'fiisiii^ l)y line :iii(l column luunhi i'.

(I. New (.•nlumiis may IK' inserted Ui a dcl'iiied line in the baseline model. New lines ma\ not he insrrted.

c. A eomhinaLion ol /.ranis may replace' an H card. The convei'se is not valid.

NAMKI.IST input cards i'ecord Ihc input variables. The NAMKI.LST idenLil'ier.s are SI/.l and rtKVT . (NAMI LIST RUAniAHY is part of Lhe system costing method). One si \ of variables in a SI/.l' or CUHVT block corresponds to an element ol the mtxlc!. As many blocks aix- rea<l as aif specilied by the number oi'elements punched in the option card, and the inclusion or exclusion of an (dement is controlled by the option card. Sets nl' variables must then be lurnished to correspond.

The 1'irsl case should contain all the variables that are used by the model. For sub-

sequent cases, only the variables that are to be changed arc input. Variables are stored in a single dimensional array called PL. They are stored by elements and ait1 printed out by element for each case run. .\ sample input element printout is shown in ApjKmdix B.

The model cards consist of a scries of different type cards that carry the costing logic. These cards (x/iform different functions, and column one of each card is used as a "key" to determine the Sfiecifie function of that card. The various types of cards and their function are described in Appendix A.

2.2.4 TUL COSTC I'HoGHAM. The COSTC program is a general cost model that acts as a data manager. It provides a printed-out array of the results of the cal- culations directed by the model cards. This printout is called the SAV matrix, and a sample printout is shown in Apixnidix C. It is organized in lines and columns, which are numbered and which are addressable by the model cards. A value "stored" in any element of this matrix may be used as a term, and manipuluted by certain types of model caids. The SAV matrix is dimensioned by the driver program, COSTC. The number of rows in the matrix corresponds to the number of lines containing cost values that arc to be printed out. It is limited only by the dimension statement and, in turn, core capacity. The current program is dimensioned for (i!)!) lines and 12 columns. A Kith column is used lor s . ..ining a given line. The number of columns in the matrix corresixmds to the number of columns that may be printed out. The program presets the SAV matrix to zeroes before the execution of a run. Terms are computed and added to a six'cific location in the matrix addi'essed by line and column number by the operative model cards. As an example of the operation of the matrix mul the correspondence to the model cards, reference is made to Appendix A, a listing of the input <leck, and Appendix C, a sample SAV matrix.

In Appendix A the first L-eard entry appears as follows:

-10

F r, i vvi WNC* CTI WNC; i \\".i WNC (:F2 wxc, ! w:; wxc- ('F;I VVNC;

'I'liis is an "F" cnnl as noted hv the F in Liic first cuiumn. i lu- SAV matrix line is 5 and tin.' oolunin is I. In ApjK'ndix C, the SAV Matrix, ;in llu- first line, line a, in the first column will he found recorded the results of this calculation (the sum of rib ty|)e weights and complexity factor products).

As anoiher example of the relationship, Appendix A Jiov.:,

F K; i ( (5,;;) . ((;,;.{) • (7,3) ) ♦ .20 • (iä,s) • 2.0.

This translates as follows:

Fntcr on line 10, column I, of the SAV matrix the sum of line ä, column 3, line 'i, column 3, and line 7, column 3, multiplied by .20 and the value entered in line 113, column S, multiplied by two. This program thus provides visibility of computations and provides a high degree of programming flexibility.

The functions of the various types of model cards tux; described in ApjKmdix A, in- cluding the rules applicable to the use of each type of card. The cards are discussed in the order in which they appear in the printout in Apjxmdix A, except that all of the input oriented cards are grouped together and discussed first. The complete list of card types in the order in which they appear in the model deck, is B-eard; 1-card; 2-card; 3-card; F-card; blank-card; C-card; N-card; T-card; D-card; R-eard; P-card; /- ;ard; I.-card; and F-card. The input oriented cards are: F-card; H-cai'd; Z-card.

2.2.5 INPUT OKGANI/ATION, Figure 1 showed inputs organized as XAMFUST variables and Model Cards, As described above NAMFFIST variables are recorded on the NAMFFIST input cards. Model cards, in addition to providing the estimating logic in the form of CFHs, con'-ain what are called estimating coefficients, which were briefly mentioned in connection with Figure Ü. These appear as constants on a given input card but are, however, subject to change. A discus don of these so-called F-card variables and how they might change in value (giving them the effect of an iniAit variable) is needed to completely describe the organization of inputs. NAMFLIST variables arc subject to change with each study case, whereas the F-card variables do not usually change from case to case and usually change only as the result of additional cost research.

Revisions can be made in the above categorization, if need dictates, simply by chang- ing the F-card to indicate the variable name rather than a constant and by including the variable in NAMFLIST. It can be seen from this comment that the distinction is partially one of convenience describing the type of input card manipulation required

41

lor a ni'v ininit. I'lir nature of Lhu l'-card varii'bU' will becumc elcar froni the dis- cussion in Sivünn 2..'S. A dictionary of NAMKLlST variables is provided in Ap|X3ndix J). A sunrniry of I'sliiiiatin;;" coellicic^its, or f'-card variables, is provided in Ap]>endix V.. Section 2.1! provides a complete discussion of CKKs, the resultijit» injxit re((uirem Mits and input sources, and a refereneia^ of back-up daüi.

2.:\ CosT KSTIMATINC 1! t: 1 ,A TlONSIlf 1'.^ AND IN ITT DKHCUJ P'I'lON

The Ktej) by sie]» developnieat of input data includes providing NA.MI^I.JST variable in- puts and tletermining the' suitability of estini iting coefficients called out by the CKHs ajul recorded as moilfl card cocll icicnls. 'i'ables arc [)rovid«id lor (he pur]x)sc of ci'oss

referencing individual costs as given in the various computer printouts, the pertinent CKH equation number to be described and the model card location within the com- puter program.

2.3. 1 i-'iHST L'NiT C'U.ST. Theoretical first unit cost is used as a means of esti- mating recurring m inufacturing costs. Manufacturing costs for the production quantities for which estimates are desired are obtained by learning curve projections against this theoretical first unit cost, first unit costs are estimated by a series of general CKHs that are used in a specified sequence to estimate major structural components: wing, horizontal stabilizer, vertical stabilizer, fuselage, nacelle, and landing gear. The computer program controls the repetitive use of the CKHs with the input data serving as the key to the structural elements and categories of cost that are estimated. Tables 3, 4, 5, G, 7 and 8 cross reference the cost printout, CKHs and model cards for the above structural elements. Operations such as subtotaling and the conversion of labor hours to dollars are handled within the program model deck.

The general CKHs that provide these estimates and the input requirement that is generated by iheir repetitive use, matched to the output shown, are discussed below. The discussion of inputs will provide a transition from the estimating output to the CKH structure ;uid a means of identifying the computational indices applicable to the general CKHs.

Detail fabricatioi, and subassemblv hours and material costs are estimated for each item listed, if th : structural component occurs on the aircraft being estimated. The CKH structure; pi ivides for the simultaneous evaluation of up to three different types of ribs, spars, anc covers with respect to these cost categories. The structural box major assembly hours subtotal is estimated by means of a series of CKHs as de- scribed.

Structural material costs are considered in two general classes: the cost of raw material for the fabrication of structural components and the cost of assembly hard- ware, which includes fasteners, seals, bearings, paint, preservatives and other

42

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Table G. Cost output, CKH l-kjuation, and Model Card Cross Uoi'cruncc - I'"uselage KirKl Unit Cost,

■rijIi.'M ■niiiiK i-, ,11 . . \.n ll\ Ihr .:IIIII [■■ -himii l.ir Winy In" I I ml I'..si, I .-iMr :;, . xr.pl lli.il I '|u:i Lion

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s|Hvi;il hanhvarc or sui)|)lic'.s used in Die course ol' (.'omploting the sLi'uctuiX1 asscnibly llu' detailed brca-kdown ol material eosta lollows the breakdown used For manulactur- Ln^ labor hours. c'i:i{ furnis, the resulting input requiromentH, the org-aruwition ol' tlicse inputs and their respeetivc buek-up data is the subject of the discussion that lollows.

DKTAIl. PAHKICA TION IKH KS F()i{ KIBS, !■ KAM KS, Sl'AKS, L( iNG tiKC )NS AN!) COVKliS

C'KR Form

A CKH ol the following form is used lor estimating detail fabrication hours:

uhe re

II i

VV

CF

W

II F

11 W CF ■ W CF ' W CF

i i i i i i VVT

(HF.) (VVT.) i i

falirication hours for ribs, frames, spars, longerons and covers corresponding to element inputs

a scries of weights for the components estimated: ribs, frames, spars, longerons, and covers

a series of complexity factors corresponding to com- ponent type related to fabrication

computer summation of the weights: WT Sum of rib weights \VT1 Sum of spar weights WT2 Sum of cover weights

a series of reference cost per pound values for ribs, frames, spars, longerons, & covers related to fabrication labor

a series of weight scaling exponents for ribs, frames, spars, longerons, and covers related to fabrication labor

(D

values are stored by the computer program and aggregated by structural comiw- nent.

Inputs

This CFH uses three types oi variables:

(1) Weights data (2) Complexity factors

49

(.'M CMSI e.stimaLin^' coclTiciunts - cost ])cr IKUIIKI and uUier lartors and scaling üx]xmeats

The first two arc handlod as NAMK1.1ST variables and vary with Die airci'all dcHign. The third is handled Lhrough tile nvxlel card coiivcntinii wiUi values used based (ill analyses as described in Volume J.

Weights data and complexity tactors lor estimating detail i'abrication hours for ribs, spars and covers lor wings, horizontal stabilizers and vertical stabilizers and frames, longerons and covers for fuselages are input as shown in figure 20. As mentioned above, the estimating method provides for the simulUuieous evaluation of three diff- erent ty])es of ribs, frames, spurs, longerons or covers. Hibs and frames may be, alternatively, bulkheads. These com]xments may ap]X3ur in various combinations limited to the maximum of three types. The nacelle ;u"id landing gear involves sec- ondary structure only. They are included in figure 'J.G only to denote the overall computational sequence.

The remaining two inputs, reference cost per pound. 111'., :uul the weight scaling ex- ])onent, 1'., are entered on model cards. They may be changed In the program simply by changing the aipropriate F curd as discussed in .Section 2.2.3. They are subject to change if the subsequent acquisition and analysis of historical data indicates a more appropriate value. Hence they are not necessarily variables within the context of a given estimating problem. Currently available back-up data for referepce cost per jxmnd values appears in Appendix F.

Input Data Sources

The discussion in this section provides a map for locating the required program in- puts. With reference to Figure 20, weights data are obtained from the APAS program and the secondary structure weight estimating routines by a process to be described in .Section 2.4.2. Complexity factors are obtained from an appropriate complexity factor table. For primary structure detail fabrication labor, these are Tables t), 10, il, 12, 13 ;uid 14. Back-up date for complexity factors is given in Appendix G. Also located there is data that can be used to develop a multiplier for application to com- plexity factors i'or construction types involving machining with differing tolerance requirements.

The derivation of reference cost iK;r pound and weight sealing exponents is described in Volume I, Section 2. The values developed are summarized in Table 15. This table also serves to summarize the model cards where Equation 1 is used.

E. follows the same map as IIF.. A consistent finding of the cost research has been that the scaling of hours to weight is very nearly a constant with a value of approxi- mately 0.G7. E. values arc thus not listed in Table 15. This finding is discussed more fully in Volume I.

50

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srnASSKium/v iionus FOH IUHS, I'IJAMKS, SPARS, LONCKRONS AND CQVKRS

C'KR Form

iTiis ("FR is of Liu- same general form as that used for detail fabrication.

II. W CM • \V CM

i i i i W CM

i i \V

(IIF (WT.) i

(2)

where

H i

\V

i

i

CM i

subasscmbiv hours for ribs, frames, spars, longerons and covers corresponding to variable inputs

weights used for detail fabrication

a series of complexity factors corresponding to component type related to subassembly

WT computer summation of weights i

HF. a series of reference cost per pound values for ribs, frames, spars, longerons, and covers related to subassembly labor

1^ a series of weight scaling exponents for ribs, frames, spars, longerons, and covers related to subassembly labor

Inputs

The same types of inputs are involved for subassembly as for fabrication. The weights data is unchanged. The additional NAMELIb'T inputs required consist of complexity factors as shown in Figure 27. These are obtained from Tables 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, and 21. Reference cost jx^r pound and weight scaling exponents are summarized in Table 22. Backup data appears in Appendix F, Pages F-7 thru F-12. The points of usage of Equation (2) are also represented by Table 22.

STRUCTUHE BOX OR BASIC STRUCTURE MAJOR ASSEMBLY LABOR

CER Form

A series of CERs of the following general form are used for the aerodynamic surfaces and fuselage for major assembly labor.

Transporting and Positioning -Aero Surfaces or Fuselage

^rrSi 1 ii. - [(WT.) (IISAl) + (HSA2) (CN + RN + SNE + SNI)' x 2 (3)

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CN

UN

SNK

SN1

primary strvicturt! major UKsomblv liours for aerodynamic surfaces structural boxes and fuselage basic structure.

weights used lor detail fabrication

assemblv hours per unit weight loi- transiJorting and positioning

assembly hours per subassemhh for transporting and positioning'

number of cover panels

number of ribs or frames

number of external spars

number of internal spars or longerons

quantity scaling factor

2 operator for aerodynamic surfaces only

Panel Fit and Trim - Aerodynamic Surfaces

where

II. i

SPE

RP

HT

TJ4

TS

11. - 2 (SPKfRP) (HT) (TJ4)

hours for panel fit and trim

average spar perimeter in feet

average rib perimeter in feet

hours per lineal feet for fit and trim

joint thickness ratio: 2 TS/O. 04

average skin thickness

Panel Fit and Trim - 1'uselage

where

H. i

SPE

RP

HT

II fSPE iRP) (HT) (TJ4) i

hours for panel fit and trim

average fuselage length

Average frame circumference

hours per lineal feet for fit and trim (differing from aero surfaces value)

Ü8

(4)

(5)

AssomMy Clamp.Ami Uiymit, -ACI-Q .Surlaccs (Jr I-iisclg^c

u IKTC

H i

R

HI.

i

ii 2 1 (HP) (UN) ' f.SPK) (KNK 'SNF) III.

Iiours for uKHemhlv rlamp and layout

si/.u scaling' exponent

assembly hours per unit length for clamp and layout

«\)

Note: Definitional differences between acnulynamic surface's ;uid iuscla.^c indicated above for the terms HN, SNI, SPE, and l{P a|3ply. I'"or the fuselage, the computer program neglects the doubling of value indicated above.

Hole Drilling - Aero Surfaces or fuselage

II 2 i

R Q H Q (RP) (RN) ) (SPK) fSNEt-SNI) (HD) (TJ4)

where

II. hours for hole drilling (not doubled for fuselage)

HD hours per foot for drilling

finish Operations - Aero Surfaces or Fuselage

(7)

where

II i

I If

f f 1

R Q R Q II. 2 |(RP) mil) + (SPK) (SNf iSNI) (Hf) (TJ4) (ffl)

hours lor finishing operations (not doubled for fuselage)

hours per unit length for finishing

factor for fastener selection

(H)

fastener Installation - Aero Surfaces or fuselage

r R Q R Q H - 2 (HP) (RN) t(SPK) (SNEiSNI)

where

(Hfl) (TJ4) (FF2)

II. hours for fastener installation (not doubled for fuselage)

0)

G9

Hl-'l hours per loot for lastoncr instnllaLion

1"1''J iactor for fastener selection

Inputs

'Hie categories of inputs used to estimate major assemblv arc:

(1) the previously used weights data

i'2.) additional dimensional data and factors

i.!) Reference cost per pound data and scaling' exponents.

The data for Item (2) is required as shown in figure 28. All of these data, except the two factors for fastener selection, arc obtained irom the APAS program. Fastener selection factors are obtained from Table 2:,., Reference cost per pound data and scaling exponents are summarized in Table 24, with back-up data in Appendix F,

DKTAIL FABRICATION AND SUBASSEMBLY HOURS FOR SECONDARY STRUCTURE

I'KR Forms

Both detail fabrication and subassemblv hours estimating relationships for secondary structure are covered in this section, conforming to the computer program organization of input elements. The basic equation forms are:

Detail 1'abrieation Hours

E. H CB (WC ) (WD ) 1 (10)

i i i i

detail fabrication hours, secondary structure

a scries of complexity factors corresponding to component type related to fabrication

a series of reference cost per pound values for secondary structure components related to fabrication labor

a series of weights for the secondary structure components being estimated

a series of weight scaling exponents for secondary structure compo- nents related to fabrication labor.

70

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Sub assembly Hours

F. H - CC. (WF.) (WD ) 1 (11)

1 i i i

where

H subassemblv hours, secondary structure i

CC. a series of complexity factors corresponding to component type related to subassembly i

WF. a series of reference cost per pound values for secondary structure components related to fabrication labor

WD. the same series of weights as for detail fabrication

F. a series of weight sealing exponents for secondary structure components related to subassembly labor

Inputs

The inputs for these CERs follow the pattern established above:

(1) Weights data obtained from a supporting computer pi'ogram, the secondary structure weight analysis program.

(2) Complexity factors obtained from complexity factor tables.

(,1) Reference cost per pound data and weight- scaling exponents.

Separate input data are required for each structural element since the list of secon- dary structure components (and consequently the series index) differs with each element. Input data requirements are shown in Figure 29. The applicable complexity factors are obtained from Tables 25 and 2G, with back-up data in Appendix G.

The computer program provides for seventeen lines for secondary structure items for each of the six computational elements. Since the cost estimating relationships are general in nature, the listing of components is abritrary and governed only by a need for correspondence between the component index and the input data.

The reference cost per pound and weight scaling exponent values are shown in Tables 27 and 28 with their model card and back-up data location.

COMPONENT MAJOR ASSEMBLY (SECONDARY STRUCTURE) LABOR

This task involves separate estimating approaches for aerodynamic surfaces and fuselage - nacelles - landing gear.

74

! INPUT ELEMENTS - DETAIL FABRICATION & SUBASSEMBLY HOURS | FOR SECONDARY STRUCTURE, ALL ELEMENTS

SECONDARY STRUCTURE INPUT VALUE j

! CB. WD. cc. INDEX COMPONENT 1 i i i

Fal) Complexity

Weights Assy

Complexitv

WING:

1 l Leading Edge \ 2 Trailing Edge

O Ailerons

\ 4 Fairings 5 Tips

1 6 Spoilers

1 7 Flaps & Flaperons

8 Attachment Structure 9 Access & Other Doors

1 1( Air Induction

1 11 High Lift Ducting

1 12 Slats

13 Hinges, Brackets, Seals 14 Pivots & Folds

1 15 Center Section

1 1G Other

HORIZONTAL STABILIZER: } 1 Leading Edge 1 2 Trailing Edge

4 5

Fairings Tips

8 9

Attachment Structure Access & Other Doors

1 13 Hinges, Brackets, Seals 14 Pivots & Folds 15 Center Section

1C Elevators 17 Balance Weights

1 1 VERTICAL STABILIZER: Leading Edge

i 2 Trailing- Edge 4 Fairings 5 Tips i 8 Attachment Structure | 0 Access & Other Doors

I 13 Hinges, Brackets, Seals | J Figure 29. NAMELIST Inputs for Secondary Structure Detail

Fabrication and Subassembly Hours. 75

WORKSHEET

SECONDARY STRUCTURE

INPUT VALU K

Fabrication Component Subassembly INDEX COMPONENT Complexity Weight Complexity

CB i

WD i

cc. i

VERTICAL STABILIZER (Coiil, ): 17

J

Rudder

FUSELAGE: Cockpit Nose Landing Gear Door & Box Wing Reaction (carry-thru) Box

4 Tail Attachment 5 Windshield & Canopy ü Main Landing Gear Doors & Box 7 Fuel Provisions 8 Engine Provisions 9 Duct Provisions

10 Stores Provisions 11 Speed Brakes 12 Cabin Flooring &• Supports 13 Windows & Window Frames 14 Doors & Door Frames

NACELLES: 1 Cowlings ■> ^ Pylon 3 Main Landing Gear Door &

Reinforcement

LANDING GEAR 1 Brakes 2 3

Brake Controls Wheels

4 Tires 5 Oleos G Axles, Trunnions & Fittings 7 Drag Braces

Kigure 21). NAMEL1ST Inputs lor Secondary Structure Detail Fabrication and Subassembly Hours (Continued)

76

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Aorodvnamic Suflnccs

VK\\ Form

'\\\o ("KUs arc Involved;

Assemblv 'I'ask \VR

(WUIU5) (CSC)) ' 2(FSL) i 2(KHL) ' 2(HSL)

• (T.T7) (FF:!) CHFl) iCMH ) i

where

11 component major assembly hours lor aerodynamic surfaces i

WHUP root rib length in leet

CSO center section operator: 1 without; 2 with

front spar length in feet

end rib length in feet

reai- spar length in feet

size scaling parameter

joint thicioiess ratio: 2TS7/0.04

average skin thicioiess

factor for fastener selection

cost per unit length for assembly

complexity factor for assembly

(12)

FSL

KRL

RSL

WR

TJ7

TS7

FF.'i

11K1

CMB i

Paint and Finish

where

11 i

AS2.

US i

11 (AS2 ) (IIS) (2) i i

hours for paint and finish

surface area, ft

hours per square foot for paint and finish

(Ki)

101

Kusiila^c - Nacelle - Landing Go

Ci:H Korn]

'\\\i) (' K\\s art: invahed:

Ansembh Task

!■:.

Ii ('MB (KHP ) (\V ) ' (]' i i i i

where

11. component major assembly hours for fuselage, nacelle, landing gear

("Ml?. a scries of complexify' factors related to the component estimated

RHP. a series of reference hours per pound related to the component estimated

W. total weight of the component estimated

K. a series of weight scaling exponents

Paint and Finish (Kxeluding Landing Gear)

Same as Aerodynamic Surfaces except not multiplied by 2.

Inputs

The values for WiiHP. ("SO, FSL, EHL, RöL, T-J7, AS2 and W arc obtained from the A PAS program. 'Jliese input requirements arc as shown in Figure 30. FF3 is obtained from Table 23. llie size scaling parameter, WR, the cost per unit length for assembly 1IK1, hours per square foot for paint and finish, IIS, and RHP arc summarized in Table 29 with the source table location identified. The complexity factor, CI\D3, is obtained from Table 30.

Rework

Provision is made for the addition of a rework factor to consider rework in a given

cost study,

CER Form

A factor is applied to each of the labor cost subtotals according to the following:

101

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d

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c =1 3

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o i '/I 3 ■J ^^

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^J i3 CJ d ZJ

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o d

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CQ

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d CJ

f-i CJ

o 'a

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d

CJ

4-»

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o Ö

d >

o g o CO ,3 d 3 S crj

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^O p—1

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k—1 3 3 o d

W H O £

105

Rework Lahor Labor »Subtotal ■ I (15)

where

[' rework Faetor

Ininils

'llio value to he used as a rework factor is entered on the appropriate V card, by ele- nunt. The factor is to be based on the analyst's judgment. This factor is used at L- card locations as follows:

Wing: F 58 (\, 2, :i and (i)

Horizontal Stabilizer: F 121 fl, 2,:! and (i)

Vertical Stabilizer: I-" 170 (1, 2, .'i and G)

Fuselage: F 22fi (1, 2, :', and (1)

Nacelles: F 291 (1, 2, :i and (i)

Landing Gear: F :<2M (1, 2, .'! and 6)

STllLCTFRAL MATFR1AL COST FOR RIBS, FRAMFS, SPARS, LONGLRONS AND COVKRS

("FR Form

A ("FR of the following form is used for estimating structural material cost for the components of the aerodynamic surlaces structural box and the fuselage basis struc- ture.

O C G M W (RMO ! fSF ) • W (1LMC ) (SF ) ■ W (R.MC ) (SF.) (16)

i i 1 i i ill ii

wnere

t material cost for ribs, frames, spars, longerons and covers corresponding to inputs

W. - a series of weights for the components estimated: ribs, frames, spars, longerons, and covers. (Weight of finished structure)

G a series of weights scaling exponents

RMCJ a series of raw material costs per pound for each type of component estimated

i

SF. " a series of scrappage factors related to the material and component estimated

10G

M values are stored bv the coniputer program and aggregated by structural component. i

Inputs

Weights data is the; same as was shown in Figure 2r>. lUiw nialcriai eo.sl per |)ound and scrappago iaetors are ini)ut as shown in figure 111 and are ralegorizod as NA.M id.lS'J' variables. \\:\\\ material costs and scrappago Iaetors are obtained, respeetivelv, from Tables .",1 and.'U. A value of 0,77 is used lor (1 and is entered as an F-card coeiii- cienl. Sec Appendix 11, Page 11-1 for back-up data.

Raw material costs and scrapp:ige iaetors are categorized as NAMFFiST variables because they were i'elt to be more subject to change than the estimating coelTicients for labor, which were treated as model card variables. In line with this distinction their back-up data is given in a separate appendix. Appendix H.

STRUCTURAL MATFR1AL COST FOR SFCONnARY STRFCTFRF

CFR Form

A CFR of the following form is used:

G M WD (RMC ) (SF ) (17)

i i i i

where

M material cost for secondary structure components i

WD a series of weights for the secondar' structure components being estimated

G - a series of weight scaling exponents

RMC. a series of raw material costs per pound for each type of component estimated

SF. a series of scrappago factors related to the material and component estimated

This CFR is of the same form as that for basic structure material costs as a simplify ing convenience. It should be noted, though, that the terms RMC. and SF. take on different meanings in this case. In the ease of basic structure, the scrappage factor was defined in relation to type of construction, RMC values are derived from avail- able data, and the term SF is available for future development as a complexity factor.

107

tr t; w

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h u y u, ^ i)

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w t; ^ 13 rt

< < <^ > (^ ^ e ■r*

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S E N

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r'. £ " y.

IS cn ■"

'r" tr o c o ? w

<; rr. u (X . < ~ u U> ^ ^

^~1

g ^r1 :" u ^ ^^ o r" r— r~ ~ ^ 5.

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y. >. >. '^. p. p. n* O ^ O ■_ ;_< o p. >-—

Q Q H' H

C

0 c c c c 1< u < u

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o T1

o u u o U u U n o 4-1 o

y w rt ,^3 "rt rt

UH

rt 2 rt .2 fa Pu, £3 rt 3 rt rt cd UH

t-i ti tj ^-j <. o '~I o ^ 1/ 0 ^ i> O fi & 4J Cj CJ n [j 1^ w 4-> *-> 4—> t/. tr. if. ..j *-< - tfl M bfj ^ l . if. i-' i£ ri rt rt 2 ^ rt rt rt rt rt rt rt rt rt rt ri rt rt

*-- ^v irt

Q r*. r*. ^ ä ä a ^ i-*. <*, C- Pi

ft 5 s

r^ 5

5" rt t-. rt rt

> rt rt rt ^ ^ .'^ M C^

rt > rt rt

rt rt"

r—*

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r*, .-'. ^, \M U* Ix, ?! r'. ^ U^ [J-, [JH "^ ^ r-, ft UH pH C/J rv* c^ rr* w tä C/J tr; C" c; w w w cä er; - «2 W w

x

y. z

Ö5 .2

c

IÜH

Talrle ;$!. Primary HtrucLuri' liau MalcriaJ Cost Factor (RMC)

Ilibs, l'ranu's, Sp;u'S, Lcm^t-roii, and Covers Production Material

Alununum

18. o

Steel

22.0

Titaniuni

2H. 0

Aluminum and Steel

Huek-up data appt-urs in Apjx'ndix 11.

Table .'52. Primary Structure Material Serappa^e Factor (SF)

Built-up Integral Structure Malei-ial Web Built-up Sheet Corrugated Web Integral

Type Typo Stil'i'ener Truss Web Web StilTener Truss

Ribs, Frames Alum imam 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 5.3 5. 3

SF1, SF2, SF3 Titanium

Steel

3.5 3.5 3. 5 3.5 5, 3 5.3

Spars, Aluminum 3.0 3. 0 3. 0 3. 0 5.3 5.3

Longorsons SF4, SF5, SF(j

Titanium

Steel

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.3 5.3

Built-up Integral Structure Material Skin Skin Machined

Type Type Structure Stringer Plate Sheet

Covers Aluminum 2.0 5.3 4.5 1.0 SF7, SFH, SF'J

Titanium

Steel

3. 5 5. 3 •1.5 1.0

1.0

109

Inputs

Weights data is the same as enterotl in i'i<j,iii-(' 2M. CUHI [XT pound ;md scruppa^-c lacLoi-s ari' input as shown in ' iRlii'c '■>- to he reenrded as NAMrLIST varialiics. Input value:;

lor HMC aiv ohLiincd from Table '■'''■'■• SV is givon the value of 1 pending further devel- opment of this estimating concept and 'Table :M is reserved (or this development.

BASIC STlin rrHK ASSKMRLY MATKRIAL COST

C'KH I'"orm

A ('i\H of the following form is used for each of the structural components except nacelles and landing gears:

where

M i

AMI i

'Ml

M Primarv Structure Assemblv Labor

(AMF1 )(FM1 ) I i

cost of material for primary structure assembly

a series of assembly material cost per labor hour factors related to the structural component being estimated

a series of complexity factors related to fastener type used

(18)

Inputs

Primary structure assembly labor hours are obtained by using the sum of the struc- tural box :uid basic structure major assembly labor CKHs, equations 3 through 9. AMl'l values arc obtained through Table ill). FM1 values are required as shown in Figure ::.''., which are in turn obtained from Table IK). The location of back-up data is indicated in each table.

COMPONHNT ASSEMBLY MATKRIAL COST

CKR Form

A CKR of the following form is used for each of the structural components:

M. Component Assembly Labor (AMF2 )(FM2 ) i i

(R

110

LNIH-THLKMKNTH- «H^ «DAHV HTHUCTUHK STIU.'C'l'UHAL MATKiilAL COST

l*t1/1t\\'J\\ t i \ ' ("Ml^l'^'^llf'lll*

IN IT4' V'ALUF

INDKX M'.C.( )M)Ai{\ h 1 HbC 1 1 Hi'.

COMPONKNTS Raw Material

Cost

Serappagc

Factor

RMC. i

SF. i

WLNG

1 Leading Ktlgc ■ > Trailiiu; Kdgc

Ailerons

4 Fairings

Tips

Spoilers

t Flaps & Flaperons

[1

AtUichmenl Structure

Access &■ Other Doors

10 Air Induction

11 HiKh Lilt Ducting

12

i:i

Slats

Hinges, Brackets, Seals

l-l Pivots and Folds

15 Center Section

Ki Other

HOKl/ONTAL STABIL1ZKK

J Leading- Kdge •> Trailing F.dgc

•t Fairings

f) 'I'ips ,s

!)

Altachimn' Hfucture

Access & Other F(xn-s

i;i Hinges, Brackets, Seals

14 Pisots & Folds

15 Center Section

1Ü I'! leva tors

17 Balance Weights

VKRT1CAL STABILIZER

1 Leading Edge

Trailing' Edge

4 Fairings

5 'I'ips

igure ;{2. NAMELIST hipuls lor Secondary Slruclurc Slrui'lural Material Cost,

111 WORKSHEET

SKCONDAin- STHl-C'l'lMiK CO.MI'ONKNT

1NDUT VALUK

I.\1)K.\

Haw .Material

Cosl

HMC.

Scrappage

{•'actor

SF i i

\"Kl{riCAI. .STAHIIJZKIi (Conl)

11

I.'!

Allaclimciil Si I'lK'tu re'

At't'i'SK tV ('i her Doors

Miners, HrarkfUs, Seals

1 7

1

Kudili r

ITSKI.AM:

(.'..•clvpil

M

•1

(i

Xosc l.andiii); Gt"df Door & liox

Wiiij; Ri'Uflion icari-\-ihni i Box

Tail Altarlmmi* Windsliiild iV ('anopy

Main I,a.iidiii^ dear Doors ^ liox

i Final Droxisioiis s Kn^inc I'rovLsiiiiis

Duel Provi.sioas

1 t> Slorcs I'rovisioiis

] 1 Speed Drakes

1 ''

11

1

Cabin Flooruij; & Suppoi'Ls

Windows \ Window Frames

Doors &■ Door Frames

NACKLLKS ColwiJi^s

■; Pylons :J Main Landing ('.ear Door & UeinioreemenLs

LANi)INt; GKAU J Drakes

>

■i

Drake Controls

Wheels

Tires

i) OleoS

Axles, Trunnions & Fittings

* Drag P.raees

i-igure ;i2, NAMF I.1ST Inputs lor Seeondary Slruekire Siruelural Material Cosl (Continued).

112

ruble ii.'i. Seeondnry Htructur«.- Haw Ahiterial Cost Factor (HMC)

Aluminum Aluimmmi XT

.

Titanium and Steel

Seeondarv and Other StnicLure ■Id, (i 55. (i 70.0 5(J.0* Ikisie Material

* Use when aluminum secondary structure includes a steel pivot.

Back-up data appears in Appendix 11,

Table 3-1, Secondary Structure Material Scrappa^e Factor (SF)

(This table is reserved for future development of factors Indicated , ;uid will be of the following form, i

Type ol (.'oust ruction

Mate rial

Aluminum Steel T itanium Fib reglass

Loading Edge:

Typical Construction:

'1'railing Edge:

Typical Const iiiction

Etc. :

113

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c

7j

w X

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o ao X fj fj » CO d to •J3 ■-D ■Si •J to

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o ^^ r; _^ o to

U Z ri »H

Si rO 'X> IO -w oo

■St ri ro ^-i -J Cl 1- ^ <

" U O

IO rH rH !M ^ 1 CO

o -1 UH fa UH fa fa fa P!

'-) ■^ -f -t 3 co CO TO | 1 1

ä a ri • o

* o

• O

1

—' J-i ^ -^ r ü ^ ü -*-* g ^

T—|

^ ^ fa ^■i

•—< r') —i r^ !H X3

2 £ < , ,

S 3 M rH l- h- 1 -

■r1 en ri U 3 o 1- XJ i 1 1

^ ^ o ri .-H rH -—1 1

-^ o fa fa fa o »—1 J 1 ^•.

M O N t-H

i—i o • ^ N Q ^ ri • ^4

ri

Q ri ri

O O

o ri Ü

o bß

w 0)

I—1

bp g

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fa CD

O

3 o o ri

T3

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2 o H <; u o fa

< Q fa T3

fa u < fa

T3 •-> Ö Ö O (U a a a a < <:

^H <M

fa fa \—i fc-H

< ^

IM

j M C

'V -' p ^ Jo

■-'

H y 1 ^-, '-*) (1) y.

« i '"-' r* o I r o r*

/.

< i L-. rv; O

i ^ to

\ ^ ^^ "a ■n I _J z>

S '~ p^ ^H

'- h

1 • ^ e r3 rs- 3 w ■i-j •--'

^5 LJ ■^ I—(

o "H

i '^ <- ^ w

Q r-* _

X; E- rt "M <"

£ 1^ !—i gj

i •—' o S H

1 ^—'

i 1 H bf. q i H w ■£

<-> 1 ß

? j k-i

J -< ■-J ^^

1 UJ

< i 1

p- o , >-1 0

7? O r- -) W d -S rt £

5 J^ t/j

! >< << K'' C/J >. Cfl 1 UJ ■^1 1? <; p c. £

, a, 5 p Ü 0 a

U 3

"« ^ a M r-- ^i

1 w H cd

j w S s ^ C .3

w o g

\ H d rt ^ UH U-, ft

o 3 | i—i CI

£ >, M OT "P.

2

ir.

"5

11!

where

M

able •!'i. r'ustcncr Type Complexity Factor Related to A.s.sembly, KM

'I'Vl'K OF FASTFNFK

Aluinuuim Alumuumi Steel and (Sulxsonic) (Supersonic) ComixKsite Titanium

FMJ 1.0 ■1. ~> :!.i) ;!.r.i)

KM 2 1.0 1.7 1.7 2,90

1

AMF2 i

cost of material for component assembly

a series of assembly material cost per labor hour factors related to the structural component being estimated

FM2 a series of complexity factors related to fastener type used, i

Inputs

CompoiuiU assembly labor hoars are obtained by using the sum ol equations 12 and l.'i lor aerodynamic surfaces and equations F! and 14 lor fuselage, naeelles, and landing gear. FM. values are required as shown in Figure HI], and are

obtained 1 rom Table IIG.

PR IMA in- ASSKMBLY AND MAJOR MATF. Manufacturing labor for these items is

estimated as follows:

Primary Assembly:

Primary Assemblv Hours Detailed Fabrication Hours t Subassembly Hours i Major Assembly Hours - % Factor

(20)

no

Uajor Mate:

.Major- Matu Hours Ik't: iled !'"al)iM(.'alion Hours ; Subas.sumhlv Hours • Major Assemhlv Hours , l^'actor

f21)

F 59 1 59 5

F \T1 1 122 5

V 17 1 4 171 5

F 227 ■) y 227 5

F 2(50 4 2B(J 5

V 292 -1 p 292 5

F-Card locations where e(|Uatitms arc used arc as loilovvs:

Primary Major Assenibls Mate

Wing:

Horizontal Stabili/.er:

Vertical Stabil!/CM':

Fuseliige:

Nacelle st

Landing dear:

2.3.2 HFCL'RIMNC; FHODUC TlüN COSTS BY STHFC'rUHAF FFFMFNT. 1 \ecurring production costs arc estimated for three alternate production quantities: the HDT&E, or flight test qiuuititics, and two alternate full scale production quantities. Figure 17, a printout of RDT&E production costs, illustrates the output format, which is the same for all quantities.

The calculation of production costs is a simple process of projecting first unit costs by me;uis of ;ui appropriate learning curve and applying labor rates to convert to dollars. The detailed first unit cost level of detail is used for this projection in order to provide adequate trade study insight. Subslaulions ol types oi material or con- struction c;m be evaluated from the standpoint of effect on learning and resultant

quantity costs. The explanation of the method which follows is based on the computer program with only one additional cquational form being added.

The /-card option is used lor learning curve projections, (See Appendix A for a dis- cussion of model card functions.) F-cards are used for conversion of hours to dollars, for cool-on-cost calculations ;uid for totaling. KDTKF costs :ind the re- maining recurring production costs are handled in the same way.

To illustrate (he- /-card option, the model card entry at ('Mlh, 1) will be used, 'lids is the calculation for recurring production costs for die Wing, Structural I'JOX, Ribs, Detailed Fabrication hours and appears as:

/;!;i5 i 29 ;n I i,N2 WNC; PN I WNC. pen WNC.

The / in the first column indicates use of the /-card convention. The numbers ;j;ä5 1 indicate the SAV matrix address at which the calculaton results are entered. The

117

number 29 si^rüries the use of THHM 2!) as ;ui equational form. 'Ilie numbers 31 1, whu-h constitute an entry in the i'irst saJjOckl lor entry of parameters, is the SAV matrix address where the previously calculated first unit cost of wing rib detailed fabrication labor is stored. The remaining entries are three additional parameters used in the calculation:

PN2 WNG The starting quantity for the calculation

PN4 WNG The ending quantity for b.o calculation

PCll WNG The relevant learning curve factor

The meaning of these parameters is determined by the equational form specified, I'KHM 29 in this case. TERM 2!) is of the following form:

P'J

Cost estimated PI ^ i (22)

P2

where PI First unit cost

P2 - The beginning point of the projection

P:3 The ending point of the projection

i The series of production units covered

In P4 In 2

where

P-l The relevant learning curve factor expressed as a decimal fraction.

The computerized calculation procedure is embodied in the COh'TC program.

An example of a cost-on-cost relationship is

V 340 1 (339,1) • HM WNG,

which tnmslates as

F 340 1 Labor cost in dollars of the structural box detail fabrication hours

(339, 1) The structural box detail fabrication hours subtotal from the SAV matrix address.

KM WNG - Manufacturing labor rate.

118

The entry {'.VA'.), I I is produreil by an H-earcl operation from the moilel card

K.'i.'i'J 1 (1 15 4 Xiü I .

The K-canl function is discussed in Appendix A. Table 37 serves to summari/e the above discussion by ^•ivin.u,' the cross reference between the cost output and model cards for Witifj; Heeurring Production Costs (8G units in the demonstration case). HDT&K ;uid Keeurring Production Costs for the five othei hardware elements follow similar patterns that can be readily identified within the model card structure.

'l.'A.n NONKKCTKRINC. DKSJCN AND JJKVK POPMKNI'. Nonrecurring desi^ and development costs are estimated by a series of CKHs eovcrin^ the following cate- gories of cost:

a. Hasic Stmeture Design Engineering liours i). Configuration Design Engineering Hours c. Configuration Design Kngineering Dollar Cost d. Engineering Material Dollar Cost e. Total Trade Study Engineering f. Hasic Tool Manufacturing Hours g. Hate Tooling Manufacturing Hours h. Total Tool Manufacturing Hours i. Total Tool Manufacturing Dollar Costs j. Basic Tool Engineering Hours k. Hate Tool Engineering Hours 1. Total Tool Engineering Hours m. 'Total Tool Engineering Dollar Costs n. Manufacturing Development and Plant Engineering Hours o. Manui'acturing Development and Plant Engineering Dollar Costs p. Tooling Material and Other Dollar Costs q. Manufacturing Support Dollar Costs

Quality Control Hours Quality Control Dollar Costs

r. s.

Table .'i8 shows the interrelationship between CEHs by equation number, the cost printout, and the controlling model card. Two of the above categories, Hasic Structure Design Engineering Hours and Hasic 'Tool Manui'acturing Hours, are estimated by structural element. 'The remainder are estimated at an aggregate level. 'The CEHs to provide the estimates are as follows:

HASIC STHUCTUHE DESIGN ENGINEERING HOURS

CER Eorm

DEH. EH. (WAMPR.) (W) HD ( '

c ■J - o o

•/. 73 7.

rt .2

%j —

y, r-1 c

t-1 T-1 ^ , y 3

3 0

^^ tr. 7 r-'

LJ

r- CJ

o ^ ri H

■I 'I -1 -1

- & i « 3

120

I CO

•r. ■j. o u U — rt

o

c o

J3 a

5 a K en

•"I Q

_5 3

Ü .^ '_ tn rj

o 5 ü V'.

CO CO

o rQ rt H

i1 F,

H I C

^0 ^ O 1 I 3

121

wlic re

DKII Design Kn^incorinff Hours i

i:il - Kniiiiricul estimating coelTicioiiL by strueturul i

c'üm|X)ncnt

WAMi'K A.MIMi weight oi'the structural comixjnent being estimated i

KK Scaling ex]M)iient of engineering hours to weight

Inputs

This CKIi entails two types of inputs:

(1) Weights data input from the weight« analysis program.

(2) Kslimating coefficients: the emprirical coefi'ieienls, EH, and the scaling exponent, KK, are based on historical data. KH is a NAMKLIST va.'able and KK is a model card input at locations K (115 I thru (5.

BASIC STRUCTURE DESIGN KNGINEEHING DOLLAR COST

CKR Korm

DKD DKII - KCLR (24)

where

DKD Basic structure design engineering dollars

KCl.R Engineering composite labor rate

Inputs

ECLR is input as a NAMEL1ST VARIABLE. It is subject to variation due to time, manufacturer and the nature oi' the engineering task and is to be provided by the cost analyst according to the problem at huuul.

Input Data Sources

The derivation of the above estimating coefficients is described in Volume I. Values for KH und KK arc summarized in Table .19. Back-up data is given in Appendix i. KH is u NAMKLLST variable, EE is a model card entry.

122

Table .'i;). Kn^ineering Labor C"K|{ CoeffkientH

Coeffk'iunt Structural 3 ub system

Horizontal Vertical banding Wing •Stabilizer Stabilizer Fuselage Nacelle Clear

i , scaling exjx«iont Ü.GÜ Ü.G0 Ü.ÜÜ 0.G0 Ü. GO 0.G0

1-: 11. , estimating i

eoolTieient 040 428 400 1200 1200 5 GO

The trade study and system costing method use common factors in estimating non- recurring design and development costs.

CONFIGURATION DESIGN ENGINEERING HOURS

CER Form

CUE! DE11 < Fl VF, 5)

where

CDF 11 Confi^i!ration Design Engineering Hours

Fl Factor for Coniiguratiou Design Engineering Hours

Inputs

The factor, Fl, is a percentage factor increasing basic structure design engineering hours to add configuration design engineering. Fl is a model card input at F GIG 7, and its value, based on an historical average derived in Appendix 1, is 1. 15 for a complete airframe and 0. G7 for basic structure or an individual structural subsystem,

CONFIGURATION DESIGN ENGINEERmG DOLLAR COST

CER Form

CDED CDEH ■ ECLK (2G)

12:3

where

('l)l I) (.'onngurntion J)*,'»!^]! Knj4'inot'ring Dollar Costs

i:('l.l{ Haginooring C<)tn]X)Sito Labor Hate

Input H

No additional inputs are required.

KNCjlNKKHINC. MATKHIAL

CKH Form

KMI) CUVA) V2 (27)

where

K.MD Kng'mecring Material Dollar Crjst

1'2 A Percentage Factor Applied to configuration design engineering dollar cost

Inputs

The value of F2 is input as a model card term at (F 017 8). A value of 0. 15, based on available cost histories is programmed into the present model. Variations are to be provided by the cost analyst.

TOTAL TKAUF STUDY KNGINKERING

This is a summing ojx;ration, Configuration Design Engineering Dollar Cost plus Engineering .Material Dollar Cost, performed by F-Card F G18 8.

BASIC TOOL .MAN'IFAC" TFRiNC HOUHb

CKH Form

FT ii'l'Mil T.MF (WAMPH ) (28)

i i i

where

BTiMil. basic Tool manufacturing hours

124

TMF Kmpirical eslimntinc; coefficient by structural romixjnont i

KT Scalini;-cxixiiuüit, tool m;uuifacturlii^ hours lo weight

Lniuits

Two additiomil Inputs arc required. TKV is a NAMKI.LST variable obtiiined from 'fable 40. KT is a model card input appearing al (f (ill) 1. . . (»), Its value has been derived as 0.75. Back-up data is contained in Appendix I.

RATH TOO!. MANT FAC'TUHING HOfHS

CKH Form

RTiMIl (VlVl'MII.) frAl\r' -]) (29)

where

2Jni-.Mll, (G19, 7) SAV Matrix summation

RI'MH = Rate tool manufacturing hours

TAM Monthly production rate

FR - Fx]X)nent for scaling of rate tooling to production rate

Inputs

TAM is a NAME LIST variable and is obtained from programmatic data. ER is a model card Input appearing at (F 620 7) and (F G21 7). Its value has been determined by current manufacturing experience.

TOTAL TOOL MANUFACTURING DOLLAR COSTS

CER Form

TTMD = TTMII - TI1C (;J0)

where

TTMD - Total tool manufacturing dollar costs

TTMII - Total tool manufacturing hours

125

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HTMll • V'irrMll. (021, 7)

TllC TüüI miutidacturing lubor cc^sL par hour

Injjuts

rilC is a N'AMKl.LST variable. UH value is based on labor rate information.

HAS1C TOOL KNQNKKHING IIOL'RS

CEU Form

BPEll f ^ iriT.lll.) F3 (31)

where

BTEii Basic tool engineering hours

F3 Decimal percentage: ratio of basic tool engineering to basic tool manufacturing hours.

inputs

The additional input is the factor F3, appearing at (F ()22 7). This is a model card input whose value is based on historical data. See Appendix 1.

HATE TOOL ENGINEERING HOURS

CEU Form

HTEI1 (HTMll) F4 (32)

where

HTE11 Hate tool engineering hours

F4 Decimal percentage: ratio of rate tool engineering hours to rate tool manufacturing hours.

Inputs

F4 is a model card input appearing at (F 623 7). Its value is based on historical date. An average value is 20%based on taking one-half of F3.

127

roTAI. I'Oni. KNf.lXKKHlXC DOI.I.AH COSTS

C'KH Form

I'TKI) I'TKii • TKC CVA)

where

1 Tl-",!) Total tool on^ineerinf;'tlollar costs

I'TKII Total tool engineering hours:

HTKH • HTKIl

'TKC Tool engineering labor rate

Iniuits

TKC is a N'A.MKl.LST variable. Its value is based on labor rate information,

MAXCFACTliUNCi DKVi; l.OPMKNT AND PLANT ENGINKKRLMG HOURS

CKR Form

MDPFIl - ■TTMli ■ F5 (34)

where

MDPFIl Manulacturing Development and Plant Engineering Hours

FH Decimal percentage: ratio of MDPEII to total tool manufacturing hours.

Input,1:

F5 is a model card input at (F G25 7). Its value is based on historical data, and an average value is 2'.'.

MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT AND PLANT ENGINFFRING DOLLARS

GEH Form

MDPED "• MDPFIl • TDC (35)

128

where

MDPKI) Munut'aetufing Development and I'lanl Kn^iiieeriag Dollars

l'D(" ('<)ni|X).site lal^or rate

Inputs

TJX' is a XAMKI.LST variable. Its value is based on labor rate inJ'ormation.

nxM.INi; MATKHIAI, AND OTHEH DObl.Ai^ CUSTS

C'KK I'oi'm

I'MOD TTMH ■ FG (3G)

where

I'.MOD Tooling material and other dollar costs

FG Per hour allowance i'or tooling material and other costs ($/hr)

Inixits

I'he factor FG is a model card input at (F G2G 8). Its value is based on historical data. An average value is $1.00 per tool manul'ac tu ring hour based on F-10G, F-1Ü2, 13-58 and F-iil experience,

MAaNUFAC TUIUNU SUPPORT DO!,PAR COSTS

CFI{ Form

MSD CDED ■ F7

where

MSD Manulucturing support dolla

F7 Decimal percentage: ratio (

(37)

engineering dollars

129

Inputs

KV is a model card input at (F G27 h). Its value is based on miinufucturing üxperience.

(jiAiJi'Y c oNi'Hoi. norus

C'KR Form

t^CIl (C'DFli • F8) ■ fl'TMIl • F'J) (38)

where

(.^('l! Quality Control hours

l''H Decimal t'raclinn: ratio ol' (.^CII to conQ[juration ciesiyi engineering

FD Decimal Iruclion: ratio of C^CI! to total tool manufacturing hours

Inputs

Fy ;uid F9 are model card inputs at (F 028 7). Their values, based on manufacturing experience, arc respectively, ]'. ;ind G'i.

UFA1.1TY CONTHOF D()l.l.Ai{ COSTS

CFH Form

QCD QCH ■ HgC (39)

RQC (Quality Control labor rate

hiinits

FLU; is a XA.MFFLST variable;. Its values is based on labor rate information,

2.13.4 HFCUKHING AIHFHAMF PRODUCTION COSTS (SUMMARY). A summary format for recurring airframe production costs is also furnished as part of the cost breakdown and computer output. Table 41 provides the cross-reference between cost output ;md model card. Figure 34 is a sample computer printout for the summary. As was the case for recurring airframe production costs by structural elements, the description of calculations that follows is oriented to the computer program.

The items of cost that are summarized consist of:

Sustaining Engineering Hours and Dollars

130

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132

SiKSLamiuu loolnig Hours mid Dollars

Manularlurim DctailcHl FubricaUon Hours ;ui(i Dollars

.Subasscmbly aiul Aanombly Hours and Dollars

Primary AssiMublv ;uiil Major Male Hours and Dolla.

(Quality Control Hours ;uu.i Dollars

MattM'ial by Htmcturul Klcmcnt

Hrimurv Asscunblv ajui Major Male Material

These ilems are repeated lor HDTKK production units and lor each of the alternate production quantities. The discussion that follows, and Table 41, applies only to HDT&K units. Procurement articles follow similar patterns that can be readily discerned within the model card structure. To illustrate, the sequence of model card calculations for the HDT&K summary that runs from F ü^O 7 to PG.38 8 is repeated for the first quantity of procurement articles in the sequence of model cards from F Ö40 7 to F G48 8.

The conversion of hours to dollar.1:' is a repetitive process that follows the procedures already described above. These calculations occur at (G30, 8), G31, 8), (G;52, 8), (033, 8), (G34, 8), and (G35, 8).

SFHTAIN1NG FNQNFFIUNC; HOFKS

SFH (). 2

(DEW ■ CDFH) (PN2 (40)

where

SFll Sustaining engineering hours

DF1I and CDFH: Sec Fquations (23) ami (25)

PN2 HDT&F number of units

SFSTAINTNC; TOOLING HOURS

STH 0.14

(TTIMH i TTFH ■ MDPFH) (PN2 -1) (41)

where

STH Sustaining tooling hoars

133

TTMI1 uLul tool tmuiuiueturctg hours

'KI1 'otal lool on^meering hours

MDPKU M(R'. tlevclopmcnt ;uKi pl:mt engineering hours

MANlFACrrHlNG: IJKI'MI.KD F/VIUUC A TlON , SUHASSKMIH.Y AND AS.SKMin.Y

AND MAl'l-imAl, COSTH

These three items of costs are hxindlcd in exactly Uie same way as described for the progress curve projection procedure for recurring production costs for structural elements, except that in using the /-card convention, TKH.M 24 is used dor UDTKK units). TKHM 24 is of the following form:

"ost estimated Pi 2. 1

i 1

42)

where

PI First unit cost

P2 The number of RDT&E units

P'A

In l^? In 2

where

ITie releviuit learning curve factor expressed as a decimal fraction.

Fen' the projection of costs for procurement articles, TERM 2(J is again used in the manner described in Section 2.3.2.

I'Hl.MAHV ASSKM!', 1,V AND .MA-loK MATH HOIKS

M M1, [(G32, 7) • (G33, 7)] (MMPCTL)

where

MMPCTL Percentage factor (43)

CjUAlJTY CONTRül, HOURS

gCIl [(G32, 7) ' (633, 7) t MMF] QCF (44)

134

wlu'iv

c^C'F t^/t' perccnta^u luetor

JJÜ[\L\ÜV ASSKMH l.V AND MA-loll MATl:_MATKHIA1.

MMM (G3Ü, H| x MMK (45)

where

(ü;]G, H) Summation of material costs lor structural elements

MMK Major mate material percentage factor

-■:!- r) t'OMl'I.KXlTY FAC roPvS. The development of first unit costs as described above imikes extensive use of complexity factors. These are also used to a lesser degree in the development of nonrecurring design and development costs.

Complexity factors are used in the current methodology as a segment of an overall costing process. The costing process, as illustrated in Figure 35, can lie thought of as having basically three inputs: historical costs through the mechanism of estimating coefficients, hardware definition translated as size/weight, and hardware definition translated as complexity. These inputs interact within the costing relation- ships to produce the cost estimate. Definition of the hardware has the clem ait of size ;ind complexity. Defining these two elements is sufficient to provide a suitably unambiguous specification of the hardware. The complexity of any piece of structure is reflected in the material and the type of construction used. The complexity associated with a given material and construction technique can be symbolized by a numerical complexity factor.

The numerical complexity factors are developed from a detailed analysis of the candi- date structures and materials. The first step in this process is the selection of a nominal structural element that provides a model of the manufacturing approaches for that structure. This defines a baseline, which is assigned a reference com- plexity of one.

Other structural approaches using different materials and construction techniques are defined. The manufacturing processes for both the baseline and alternate structures are then identified and listed. From both historical and projected labor data, hours can then be assigned to the various manufacturing processes. This results in a number of hours being associated with each specific type of material and construction technique as a variation of the nominal structural element.

135

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136

Hy ili\ idini; Liu1 miniliiM' nl' hours Im' v.ivh m.-ilcriiil rDiislruclini: LCCIHIKIUC cuiiihinaUun

by the luimlici' ol' hours retjilirini lor the l);isclmc. we iiri,i\,c ,il a romplcxiLy fat'tor

lor earli box ol l\\v inatcrial-ronsl ruclioii l.crlnuiuo matrix. Tlu' flow ol this process

Is shown in Ki^virc '.Ui. An example ol a eompleteil material ■•(.'onslrueliun lechni(|ue

matrix lor rih deiail lahrieation was shown in Table !). A sample ol the detailed esti-

mates used to generate hour re<(UJ remtilts lor the dillerenl tyjH's ol eonstruetion and

malerial ap]X'ai's in Figin'c •'!?. Tlie complete set ol complexity factor tables was

shown in Section 2.11, and these are backed up by projected cost data included in

Appendix ('■.

For «.'ach typt' '>!' constrnction , a sketch defines the siK'cilics, such as mtraber of rails,

web parts, number of machined surfaces, number ol stiffeners, etc. A nominal si/.e

was defined to make the different design approaches to ribs, spars, a.nd covers com-

parable on a complexity factor basis. For each piece of detail structure, the manu-

faeturinK operations were iclentilied that arc. required te imunifacture each piece.

These included such operations as those shown in Figure 'M: saw set up, edge burring,

router set up, routing of cutouts, proeessing to speeifieations, identifying and in-

sj)ecting, etc. Where assembly was required, these operations were identified and

included clamping in place, hole drilling riveting, welding, identifying and inspecting,

etc.

Complexity factors for secondary structure are less well defined because distinctions

in 'ype of construction are not as well defined. For secondary structure, complexity

factors have been developed by analogy from historical data and by industrial engineer-

ing studies that evaluate the impact and relative cost effect of selected design alter-

natives. The secondary structure complexity factors art- oniained in Tables iM

and ;;.(). Fse of these tables requires selection of a suitable analog or dialogs as a

l>oint of reference for selection of a suitable complexity factor.

The use of complexity factors i.i the estimating process at the level of detail depicted

above provides a great deal of flexibility. New types of structure can be analyzed

from Ute sUmdjXMnt of impact on manufacturing processes and the resultant impact on

cost determined. Some anomalies occur, however, since the historical data

does not always confirm presupposed patterns of cost. The detailed study as to the

reasons for such ambiguity is beyond the scope of this study.

2. 3. G DFHIVATION OF FSTl.MATINU C'UK FFIC'IFN'TS. A summary of cost elements

for which, baseline coefficients were developed is shown In Figure 158. Historical

cost data was collected for each of the cost elements cf the matrix. 'This basic cost

data was normalized, where appropriate, by making use of the complexity factors.

'The construction and material type for each of the cost elements was identified :uul

the appropriate complexity factor divided into the baseline cost. The effect of this

procedure is to reduce all the data ix)ints to a common basis to which a complexity

factor of one can be applied.

137

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138

RIB BUILT UP WEB STIFFENER

l.ou ■( Non-Hard. Steel

i . SS Al 1 1

1

Rib -i/e 18 \ 12 x 2 in.

Detail pans .ire rails |2), well ( 1 ). sliffeners I 2) &. intercostals (.'t|

1 alini alum ul rails ( 2)

Set up sau o r.o 0.50 0 50 0.5 t; Sau exliusion l<) length (2) 0.75 1 1 1 O.'i

-^ Burr edges 0.12 0.75 III o.:i i Sei up router ü..r)ü 0.50 0.50 0.5

Koule st ringer ( ul out s U.'.)8 1.75 2.59 0.7

Hun ().12 0 75 1.1 1 o.:i

Sei up rolls

Roll tot in to i onlour

0.50

u.:iu 0 50

0 'SO

0.50

0 iO

0 5

0,1

Prime surf a res u..r.o 0.50 0.50 0.5 —

lilenliU .V inspei 1 1) .r)U 0.50 0.50 0.5

1 ahri» alion of web I 1 )

Set up shear ()..r)ü 0.50 0.50 0.5 c Shear pan to width k length (12 in \ 1H in.) uto O.ÜO o.:io ü,:t It, liurr

Route well to shear

U.5Ü

0.70

0.50

1.25

0.50

1.85

0.5

0.5 n

Hurr

I'nine Mirlai es

0.28

0.50

0.50

0.50

1.74

0.50

0 2

0.5 ! Idenlilv >> inspi-c I lain i( ation of stiffeners (21

Set up sau O.fiO 0.50 0.50 0,5 m Sau extrusion (2) 0.12 0.7 5 1.11 ü,:i m, Hurr

Setup rolls

0.28

0.50

0 50

0.50

0.71

0.50

0.0

0,5 j

Roll form to (onlour 0.50 0 50 0.50 0.5 —

Prime surlaies 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5 ,

Identify & inspect 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5 Faliruation of inten ost.ils ('()

Setup sau 0.50 0.50 0 50 0.5 L Sau extrusion (It) U.42 0.75 111 o.:i il Burr 0 12 0.75 1.11 o :( _ J Pro« ess to spec, (alodine) ■t.OO ■1.00 1.00 ■10 --1 Prime surfaees 0.50 0 50 0.50 0.5 i Identify S. inspect 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5 ,

lotal detail lahrieation i;. ■.: i ..1 . in ■.:;.. I,'- li;.:i

i'igii'-c 37. Detailed Industrial Engineering Estimates for Complexity Factor Derivation

i:n)

F1KST INIT COST DKTAJ1. FAl'-KJC'AI'K )N SLÜ5ASSK .MJ51.Y

SI riu'tiiral Bn

Kibs

Sj^Kl I'S

C'oVfM'S

X

Serunclarv Sti "IK •tin 'c

I .ending Fc Ige

Trailing F( Ige Ailerons

l'a i rings

Fiiis

Spoilers

Flaps ■ 1 •I; ipe rons

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

X X

Attachment Structure Access ■ Other Doors Air Induct ion High Fill Ducting Slats Hinges, Brackets, Seals Pivots • Folds ("enter Section Flevators Balance Weights Rudder Other

Figure .'38. Summary of CFB CoelTicients.

(>nce the normalized data for the cost elements has been plotted on log-log paper, the problem becomes one of simply determining the line that can best represent the ad- justed data. The two basic parameters define the CEH line: the slope of the line and the intercept of the y axis where the value of the x axis (weight) is one pound. Based on a composite plot of all cost data and the results of previous research, in particular

Heferences 1,2, and 'A, a constant ex[)onentiaI scaling relationship was used. With the slope of the curves specified, each y intercept was determined by fitting the fixed slope line to the data available for each cost element. A cost plot showing the technique for the rib detail fabrication is shown in Figure 39. Back-up data charts

for each oi the CKHs appear in Appendix F, The curve fit line is not plotted on these charts since they are expected to change with the addition oi new data. Values used were determined by plots on work sheets.

140

ion

so

T J | . | j j | j ! | i Ji'm wiNc , 1 1 1 10 1 1 i it !

1 1 ♦ f ' ! \ \ \\ • t * '

i l i ■

»t

11

i

^ [ 1 ! I" < - 1 1 i

r 30 | i 1 j * 4 '

< ( )

1 A X HORIZ : iTAR N

1 ! !VFX MORI/ SI AH

^ PI

■ i

i t |

^ ,n 1 1 , ; Hs ^1 1

CQ 10

1

4 t 1 t A X 1 | 4

v WING! f ■

, I' t r

3 L ^N DIM - —

Q 4 CP

cc 3

? 1

6 C M HOF STA

v N it

i

7 1 i ^IZ. B.

C SA | HORIZ,- STAB.

1 10 20 30 40 50 100 700 300 400 500 1000

WEIGHT dh)

Figurc 30. Detail Fubricution Hours Versus Weiplit Tor Ribs with Complexity Factor normalized.

2.4 PROGRAM OPFRATION AND INSTRUCTIONS

i'his section discusses additional considerations involved in the full set of trade study cost estimating computer programs. As the method is currently structured each of the programs depicted in Figure 1 operate indciKnideiUly, and data is l ranslciTcd nuuuially between them.

2. 4. 1 COMPUTER PROGRAM 1NTK GRAT ION. The elements of the estimating method have been designed to operate in a modular mode, as opjxjsed to being hard-wired, for two reasons: (1) Fach of the elements is in a state of development and changes in input/output are to be expected and (2) It was desired to have the capability of opera- ting the costing program Independent of the structural synthesis program, limited, of course, to those cases where the necessary input data could be provided manually.

hi the modular mode then, coordination of the programs is accomplished by means of a set of instructions covering input development, the preparation of input cards, and the set-up of the computer deck for the desired operation. Section 2. J provided the general instructions for input development ;uul identified input sources. Specific instructions for operation of the supporting programs and the transfer of relevant uij)ut data are given next.

141

-■ l.~ ')ri:i^\ll()N OF sriM'OHllNi; PIUJC.RAMS. The Bcquem-c of opcfations lor l.hc prii:;r;ims involved in ;iii;ily/in|i," nemlvntimic surfiiccf-; is sliown in Figure 10. AIHD shown is the list of works luvts USKI in the transfer of datii. An illustrative set ol ! lu'si'woikslici'ts is include«! and di sensse<l in Appendix .1.

Worksherts .1, I, and ■> are the final output of the aerodynamie surfaces supporting programs. (The combined weight statement appears as Table J.) These data are entered as NAM F LIST variables. They are identified by means of the coding on the NAM FUST Variable Dictionary in Appendix I), which also identifies the worksheet location of I he input.

'llie sequence ol operations for the programs involved in unaly/.tng the fuselage, nacelles ami huuling gear is shown in Figure -11, Also shown is the list of work- sheets used in the transfer of data. The situation parallels that of the aerodynamie surfaces. In this case worksheets 3 and 4 are the final output of the supporting programs. Further material is included in Appendix D.

2.4.',] Tl.MF SlIAKLNCi. The use of Interactive Graphics was investigated as part of Ulis study. From the results it appears that time-sharing using an INTKRCÜM t\pe system oilers signifieant atlviuitages. A discussion of Interactive Graphics benefits and lime-sharing using INTFRC'UM is provided in Volume I.

'XTFKCuM is being used as part of the installation at AFFDL. it provides a simpli- fied procedure for making NAMKL1ST and model card changes. These are made at a deskside terminal that displays a card ;uul provides for a change in the card as a keyboard operation. rJTus capability is especially significant for maintaining currency in estimating coefficients as new data indicates a need for revision and for changes in the GFKs themselves.

142

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144

SIOCTION m

AIRKKAMH HVSTKM COST HSTIMATING MKTIIOD

The sysicm fosl cslimalüiiJ, mrlhocl is cicseribcd in thLs KccUon. V.nvr instrutiions lor making ;ui csuinalc art' provided. Tin' sysli'in nu'lliod docs not rcquiiv llir uav of Ihc previously deseriiu'd, sui)porting struclurai synliiesis |)rograms. A group weight statement and design information are Ihc principal sources of input information. The research leading to the development of the method is covered either in Volume 1, or in previous reports as referenced,

'A. 1 COSTS HSmiATKD

Costs are estimated for each of the airframe suhsystems as shown in figure 4:

Kngi nee ring Toof Mfg. Manufacturing Direct Labor Direct Labor first Unit Cost

Structural Subsystems Wing X X X

liori/ontal Stabilizer X X X

Vertical Slabilix.er X X X

Fuselage X X X

Nacelles X X X

Landing Gear X X

functional Subsystems Surface Controls X X

fnvironmental Control System X , X

llydraulics/l^ieumatics X ' X

f lee trical/KU'C Ironies X X

Instruments X x) Other X

Auxiliary Power X X

Armament Provisions X X

fngine Associated Equipment X \ X

fuel System X X

Avionics Provisions X X

furnishings and Equipment X 1 X

Support fngineering X

figure 42. Airframe System Cost fstimating Structure

14,c

'11)1' dilTi'i'cnl c.-iht;!) rics ol rosl milput.s prositlccl coiisisl nl;

a. Nun rccuri'iii!; DeKign and I-'i'xciopiiiciil COKIH

II, Firt.l I nit MaimlViciuri n;; Cosls

r. I\(cniTini; Airfranu' I'rodiiclioi) COK(H

Sliimn m SccMion 1.1.2, T'lj^urcs 14 through 17, ai'c i'oinpuUT prinloul cxuinplcs of each ol ihcsc tyiM-s of oosl oulpul. The hardware componrnls listed comprise the 'airlrame" when ladaied to system costing methodology. The eapahility for allernaU'

prodtuiion i|uantities is the same as for the t rade study method. Production quantities are a^ain nlaained In learning curve projections of first unit casts.

Tin system cost lormals are laid out and programmed tor later expansion in the ease ol first unit cost, fnder ihe present approach the subsystems are estimated hy a emnhined labor and material C'KU. With the ucquisiLion of additional data it should be- come possible to make separate labor and material estimates, as ibust'-ated by the I'ormul in figure If».

:',.:'. COST MODKL COM I'UTKH I'ROCRAM MODULI-:

The computer program for the system cost estimating method is a module of the trade study program, as stated previously. This module uses SAV matrix lines 700 through 7111'. The number of lines used is kept to a minimum for computer efficiency and may be increased by a simple change in the DIMENSION statement in the COSTC program. The details of the computer program remain unchanged for system costing operation except that only a subset of the model card deck is used: that pertaining to the cards corresponding to the section described above. Input organization is simplified and is described in connection with the discussion of cost estimating relationships.

Additional material describing the system costing computer program module is cov- ered in Appendix K. This consists of a computer listing of input elements, the pro- gram module listing of model cards, a NAM KLIST variables dictionary, and a sum- mary of estimating coefficients, back-up data for which arc given in Appendices 1 and L. The NAMELLST variable dictionary serves as an input summary table in lieu of the individual input summary tables by cost category used for the trade study method.

;j.;i COST KSTIMATING KKLATlONSHll'S AND INPUT DESCRIPTION

A summary of the system cost estimating approach is given in the following sections for each of the major categories of cost. A complete description of CERs, the result- ing input requirements, input sources, and references to back-up data are provided. Tables are provided for cross referencing cost items as given in the output formats, the CER equations, and the model card locations. The step-by-step development of

I4G

input (lala consists of providing NAM KL1ST variahlc InpuLs and dcU-nnining the suit- ability ol csliinat üi^ coclTicii'nt.s called out by the C'KKs and recorded as model card constants.

;i.;i.l NChNHKCl'HUUN'Ci ^KSIüN AND DKVKLO I'M KMT. Nonrecurring design and (h'velopnient costs are esti^iated by a series of CKKs, each of the same general form, for each of the costs in Figures 1 i and 1.1. Fable 42 cross references the cost prinL- out, CKlls, and model ennis lor each. The CFAl forms and the input requi remenL that is generated by their use arc discussed below. Kquat ions arc numbered separately from the trade study method.

KNCilNKKULNC;

BASIC STRUCTURK DKSKiN KNCINKKKLNG

Definition

Basic Structure Design Kngineeiing comprises the detailcnl desigii of the (dements of basic structure, plus such supporting activities as lines and lofting, cheeking, stress, weights and value engineering, as they relate to the elements of basic structure.

CKR Form

A CKR of the following form is used for estimating basic structure design engineering for each of the elements of basic structure:

F. DE. ■ F. (FC.) (WF.)

i i i i (l)

where

DF : Design engineering hours for each structural element estimated i "

F. - Complexity factor

FC. -- Fstimating coefficient

WF - Weight of the structural element estimated i

F r Cost/weight scaling' exponent i i - Index numbers, I through (j for basic structure

Inputs

The categorization of inputs used in the system costing method can be best explained by reference to the model cards of the computer program. As an example, we have, F701 1 Fl WNG * 540.0 * WW WNC ** Fl WNC taken from the

147

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149

model r;inl lusting in Appendix K, The coincnlions arc Ilic same as applied in Ihr tradi' simly iiictlmd. This i.indcl card is ol' Ihr l'-card lyjic. (..'alculalc<l values ol' HM: arc entered in the SAV mnirix, in this ease at the address (7 01 , 1 ); and the inllim- inij, et(iiivalencies and eategorizalion ap])lv:

1' I'l WNC, (NAM KLLST variable) i

KC .14(1, (I (Model card eeelTieient ) i

\VK WAV WNC; (NAM I-]LIST variable-) i

K Kl WNC, (NAM KLIST variable) i

Input organization is simple enough so as to obviate the need lor individual input suni- mar\ tables by eost category as was used for the trade study. NAMKldST variables are entered on the NAMKldST SUMMAHY inj)ut cards, one lor each structural element

in the following sequence;

WN(i Wing

HTL Horizontal Stabilizer

VTL Vertical Stabilizer

FLG Fuselage

NAC Nacelle

Ltd) Landing Gear

It can be seen that the sample F-card above represents a calculation lor the wing.

Input value« to be entered lor l'^ are obtained 1'rom the historical eost data supplied as back-up data in Appendix 1. (The same data is used in this case tor both trade and system costing. ) The complexity Factor is obtained by analogy to historical references displayed in the Figures 1-1 through l-ti, or through other comparable data.

Values lor FC"; are already entered on the appropriate model card and c;ui be seen on the listing in Appendix K. These values are developed from an analysis of the data on the above referenced figures.

The estimated weight of the structural element being estimated, vVE-p is obtained from an appropriate weight statement. Ln the system costing method, this input source is not definitely established.

The scaling ex]xment, F, is obtained from the previously mentioned historical data

Ln Appendix 1. Independent research has shown this scaling to be a constant value, as Indicated by Figures 1-1 through I-Ci.

150

In cxamüiini; the NAM KLIST variables ;LS shown in the model card listing, a conven- lionul thr C'OSTC pr()i.'ram should hi' rocnllrd; An input clcincnt remains the Kume for the end re se((ueiu'e ol elenuilUs to be estimated unless a change is entered in a subsrqium NAAlKblST variabir ijiput card. Thus, HI VTl, will ecinal Kl I1TL will ei[uul HI WNCr il' only the oiM^uml entry under WNC. is made. This is not true of I'd WNCi and V2 1111,, since 1' 1 and V'J. are deFined to be ditTcrent \ariables.

COIiKU;rKATION 1)KHIiuN KNCLN !■:I-dUN(l

Detinilion

Conlig'urulion design engineering incdudes support engineering eonsistinjj, of preliminary design, aerodynamies, dynamit's, and thermodynamies activity related to structure,

CKH I'onn

A CKH oi the iollowing ionn is used lor estimating coniiguration design engineering:

K2 CDF. FT (KC) (VVA.M1M (2)

where

CDE r Configuration design engineering' hours

F7 Complexity factor

EC Estimating coefficient : 1841)

VVAMP AM I'll weight of the total basic structure

E2 Cost/weight scaling < .-qionenl

Inputs

l'"7, VVAMP and E2 are NAM EL1ST variable inputs. EC is an estimating coefficient entered on the model card.

Input values to be entered for E7 are obtained from the historical cost data shown as Figure L-l, or through comparable data. A value for EC is entered at line 707 of the model card list, being derived from the same historical data. WAM P, the AM PR weight of basic structure is obtained from a suitable weight statement. E2, the scal- ing exponent, is the same value as El above and is obtained from the same data base.

151

K(..)ni'.MK.\T DKSKiN l';N( UN KKKINU i

1 )il inil ion

lM|iii|)iiicni (lesion rdalcs to lli ■ tlrsLg'il nnd (IcvflniJinciK ol' airc'uri lunctitjaul suh- s \ .stems,

C'KU I-'QI-III

A ^nirrai (,'KH of the lulhnvinfj; lorm is USIHI;

!■:.

KDK. ■■ I-' (I'XM (W'K. ) ' (:{) 1 i i i

ulirn

KDK. K(|iiipiiH'nl design cn^iiiccrinu hours for each lunctional subsystem

;ui<i 1';, KCj, VVKj and Hj arc as dd'uicd biifore. The Index, i, runs from H through Is, Lnelusive, eorre.siwndLng to the functional Subsystems as listed in Figure 42.

biputs

Categorizations are the same as before. Input values for F- arc obtained by reference to Figures L-2 through L-lii. Values for ECi, derived from these same data, arc gi\en ui model cards for lines 7J1 through 721. WE: values arc obtained from a weight statement, as before. The scaling' exponent, Fj remains 0. (j based on data in tile above figures.

TOTAL FNGINFKIUNG LA1K)H

'!''>tal engineering labu' is the summation of the previous estimates accomplished by an K-card, line 722. The formula appears as follows:

TFT Y* (701 ... 718, 1) (4)

wnei'c

TEL ; Total engineering labor,

and the summation is of the scries of estimates recorded in the SAV matrix from line 7 01 through 721.

/

152

KNCIIN' KKINc; DOLLAR COSTS

Mii^inciTiiifj, (li)llai' cnsls arc olitaiiicd by a|)|)lying a conipoalU' cn^i nee ring !ulx>r rule liy means of an l-'-curd al line 72,'!, 2. The lonmilu is:

KDC" TKL (K('1,I{1 ) (.",)

U here

KDC" laiginccring dollar costs

KC'LIU ; Composite m^iiuHTing' labor rale

KNC.lNKKULNCi MA'i'KlUAL COSTS

])t'l Lnition

This cost covers miscellaneous costs associated with engineering design such ;LS en- gineering materials and supplies, travel and per diem and computer costs. Material lor developmental hardware is excluded here and included under development support.

CHU Form

A CHU oi the following form is used;

KM ■ KDC (KM) (Ü)

when'

KM = Engineering Material cost

KDC - Kngineering dollar cost taken i'rom the SAV matrix at (723,2)

KM ■ A percentage factor

Inputs

The NAMKL1ST input KM is based on the contractor's experience and is currently entered as 0. 2,

TOTAL LABOR AND MATERIAL COST

This cost is calculated by an F-card at line (723,4) and is represented by

TLM - KDC -i EM (7)

] 53

TOOLlNii:

BA.SK' TOOL MANIKACITKINC; llorUS

DrriniUun

Basil' tool inanurarlu i'iii^; pi'ovidcs a t'omplHr sei ol manuraclurin^, tools assumed lo he capahlr ol su|i|)oriiii|; a maiuilaclurin^ rate ol appruxlnsaU'ly one aircralt pci" iiionlh,

CKH Form

A CKH ol ihr folkuving l'ortn is used t'ur oslimaliiiij, basic tool numulaclurin^, hours for oach ol tiu' rlciiiciils oi basic sli'uclurc,

T. !Vr TF (FC. ) (W'F ) ' (S)

i i i i

where

HT. Basic tool manulacturiiii; hours by hardware clement

TF. Coniplexily factor for tooling'

FC. Estimating coei'fieienl

WF Weight of the structural element estimated i

T Cost/weight scaling exponent i i index numbers 1 through 7 for tooling elements

This CEH is essentially the same as Equation 28 of the trade study method except that here the complexity factor is treated explicitly whereas in the trade study method il is built into Table 40.

Inputs

Input values for TF: are obtained from Table 40 except for TF7, which must be deriv- ed as analogs from Figure L-13. Additionally, decisions on the choice of complexity factors for TF1 through TFij may be based on analogy from the data in Figures 1-7 through 1-11, the same data used in the trade study method. Data is not available for the landing gear. Values for EC. arc entered on model cards F731, 1 through 7, based on the above data. Weights are the same as for engineering. The scaling ex- ponent, I'i, based on these data has been taken as a value of 0.75.

A summation of hours is provided by FO.'il 8.

154

UATK TOOL .MANn-'ACTCmNO HOl'liS

Dcliiiilioii

Knie Icmlin^ is (Icliiicd a.s ihr tool provisioning ['('(juiri-d lo iiu'rcu.sc production rapa-

liilitx lo ;i rc((iii i'i'd I'.-ilc t'rotn dial provided by iiUKic tooling.

CKH lM)nn

Thi' t"KK used i.s

KT, HT. (R'1'^ - 1 ) (I))

HT, Kale l(X)l inumifufUirinfi hours by liai'dwarc cicnu'iii

i{ l'roduclion i'alc

I'K Scaling wilh pi-oduclion rale increase

'I'his calculation is applied to each ol die hardware elcmoniH.

Inputs

The inputs H and TH are NA.MKITST variables entered in NAMKL1ST SUAIMAitV, The

production rate is obtained from program plan data and will normally be the same for

all hardware elements, although provision is made lor the application of separate

rates. The value for TK is ()..'! based on mamtfaclurtng experience.

A summation of hours is again provided, 1-'7.TJ H.

TOTAL TOOL AIANULACTUHINC

Basic and Rate Tool iManufactui'ing Hours are summed by column for each hardware

element, for other subsyytems and for the subtotals. The calculation by K-card at

line T.'i.'i, column ij, converts too! manufacturing labor lo dollars using the NA.M KLIST

variable, TMLR.

BASIC TOOL LNCiiNLKHlNG

Definition

The design of tools and preparation of production planning' to accomplish production at

the initial rale of production.

155

CKH Form

Thr CKH used applies a factor to basic I/»)! maj.inlacturi n^" lubor:

BTKII irr (TKI' ) (10) i i i

where

HTKil Masic tool eilKineerinu' hours by hardware elenienl i

TKF, Tool engineering factor: a ratio of locjl engineering Lo tool MKumlaeturing

Inputs

'IKF is based on data shown in Table 1-2 and is entered as a NAMKLlST variable.

HATH TOOL KNGLN KKIUNG HOURS

l-'efinition

The design of tools and preparation of production plaaning to accompany an 'ncrease in production from an initial rate,

CKR Form

The CKH used is

HTKII. HT. (HTKF.) (11) l L l

where

HTKH. Hate tool engineering hours by hardware element

HTEF, Hate tool engineering factor

Inputs

HTFF is based on manutacturing experience imd is entered as a NAMKLlST variable.

TOTAL. TOOL KNülNFKHlNG

Basic and Hate Tool Fnglneerlng Hours are summed in the same way as Tool Manufac- turing. Tool engineering labor is converted to dollars by an F-card calculation at line 730, column iJ, using- the NAMKLlST variable, TKLH.

15G

TOOL. .MATKIUAL COST

1 hlinii ion

This itnn c-ovcr.s nii.srclhincou.s rosls assocuilrd willi tool (lesion, mimulartu riiii;, and prodiu'tion plaiuiint; LiU'ludillg materials lor tool numufaclurc and pi'ocnrcd tools.

CKH Form

'I'M TTM CrMFLM {12}

where

'I'M Tooling matc-riul cost

TTM Total Loo! manutacluring hours

TMI'L; Tcwling material t'acLor: a ratio ol' tooling material to tool manul'actu ring

MANUFACTU1UNC. AIDS COSTS

Det'initiun

This covers the plant engineering lunetion associated with the design, manufacture, and maintenance ol special noncapital manufacturing aids such as holding cradles, work platforms, slings, load bars, transportation trailers, handling dollies, and access stands.

CKH Form

MA11 : TTM (MAF) (13)

where

MAI! - Manufacturing aids hours

MAF : Manufacturing aids factor

Inputs

The manufacturing- aids factor Is entered as a NAMEL1ST variable. Fxperlence Indi- cates that on past aircraft programs these hours have ranged from 8 to 15 percent of tool manul'actu ring hours. An average value of 0. \.2 Is used.

157

iMiuiutac'turia^ IIUS lalx>r is coiivciicd (u dollars by :ui F-carcl calculaLion at line 73H, cohmui I', usiiu; as inpul the NAMKLIST variable, i\IALI{. This is a composUc rate lhat iju'ludcs an alluwaiK r for i-cqiu i'cd nialcrials.

MAXri-'AC'l'l'lUNc; DKV'KLOl'.MKNT COSTS

Dt'l'milion

This consists of Ihc d<'\clo|)nu,nl of inamii'arfurinj; mi'Lhod associated with a given pro- gram, including processes, standards and procedures,

CKH Form

MDli TTM (M1JF) (hi)

wllel'e

IMDll .M;ij. a'actuiing development hours

MDF Manufacturing- development factor

Inputs

The manufacturing development factor is entered as a NAMKLIST variable. Manufac- turing experience indicates a value of 0.15,

MANFFACTURING SI' FPORT:

Del'uiUion

Manulacturing support hours represent the effort undertaken to support engineering during the development phase of an aircraft program. It includes manufacturing labor and material for such items as development test parts, test fixtures, mockups and models, and other support activities. It also includes manulacturing material and other costs made up primarily of vendor costs for development, test and production startup.

CKH Form

The CKH form used is based on Hand studies, Reference -1 :

MS^ Ü. 008325 (WAMP)'8'J (S)"8'* (QD)'"346 (INF) (15)

where

MS : Manufacturing support cost in 1974 dollars,

158

S Muxiniuni speed (k(s)al lu'Hl alliUidc

t^D l)e\cl(i|iMi"nt (|iianlily (number of fligiil lesi airfraim-.s)

INF A lei-m to adjust the dollar base from i!)70 to 1074 ;uid Lo pi'ovidc lor sul)St'<|iU'iU adjustmciil s as follows:

IN" lY - ÜJ74)

and l.'.'.V:! / (1 lil)

IM Kale ol iiiilaiion

V Veal' in vihieh dollars arc stated

Inputs

All ol tho vahahlcs are entered ;us NAMKLlb'T variables. WAAIP, the AM PR weight of the airframe, is obtained from a suitable group weight statement. Speed (S) is ob- tained from design characteristics data. Quantity (QD) is obtained from program data. The rale of inflation is estimated, and Y is self-evident.

CjlALITY CONTKUL

Definition

The esuiblishment of quality control procedures and requirements and set-up for production.

CKH Form

QCI1 - TEL (QCF.U i TTM (QCF2) (1(5)

wherf

(^Cli Quality control hours

QCF'J Factor applied to engineering labor

QCF2 : Factor applied to tool manufacturing labor

Inputs

The Quality Control factors are entered as NAMFLIST variables. Based on contractor experience, QCF1 is 0. 01 and QCF2 is 0.0(1.

'A.li.'Z FIRST UNIT COSTS. First unit costs, defined as before, are estimated by a series of CFRs, each of the same general form, for each of the costs in Figure 16. Table b'J cross references the cost printout, CFRs, and model cards for each. The CFR form and the Input requirements that are generated by its use are discussed below.

159

( - ( - r ■

, 3 '/i •~> C , i _■

O ._, * r*

,< —' —' —'

r* •3 '"

L— ;_ O

JQ lJ

U 71 ^3 s-

y. •J: i— I

'J

♦-* tj C

D OJ

•n m

-J r* \j ^_, 5 ■fi - 0^ 4^ '—> w "Z ü ->

5 a " 3 E

d o

-> c 3 ^ g 3 S I, X

:J 7J T* Z "^ ^ ;: X F lj

^ y. —, — fc~* _;' .^ <• ""

"

F -? ^

1G0

MASK' STHrCTrUK FIRST UNIT COST

CKH Form

A CFK ol tlic follmving t'oi'iti is used lor csti inalin;; lir.st unit fosl (hiUir and niulcriul eombincd) for rarh of llir clcmriits ol' IKU-UC si riiclmc:

F.

CFF. l'F (FC )(WF.) '(IN!'')' (SA\'.) (17) till i

whore

CFF. Co.sl of llio first unit of tho oloincnt csliinafcd i

F !■' Compioxitv factor i

FC. - Fstimal üü; coofficioiil i

VVF Wciulu of tho si mot ura! olomcnl bou^" cstinuitod i

!■;. Cosi/uoi^iil scaling oxpononl

LNF Adiuslmont of Ji)7ü dafa l)aso Lo L<.)74 baso as shown in Fqualion (10)

SAV. SA\' matrix address for pick-up of trade study method estimate

Lnpufs

The complexity factors und the weights are handled as NAAIFFIST variables. The esti- mating coefficients and the sealing exponents are enteret! as model card constants at the model card locations shown in Table -Fi. Back-up data for the complexity factors, estimating coefficients, and scaling exponent are provided in Appendix L, Figures L-14 through F-.'!U. Figure L-lti is blank (with the page reserved for later data), since for the pre.vr.', the horizontal and vertical stabilizer an-combined as the

empennage.

Inflation is treated as shown for Manuiacturing Support, although for programming convenience a separate F-card is used for this calculation.

The term SAVj refers to the series of SAV matrix addresses called out on lines F75i through F7.1G. These represent the corresponding first unit cost estimates made by the trade study method. It is necessary to make certain that one or the other method is zeroed out. Use of the combined method is discussed further in Section 4.3.

3.3.;] KECFUHING PRODUCTION COSTS. Recurring production costs for the sys- tem costing' method are handled in a manner similar to that for the Recurring' Produc- tion Cost Summary for the trade study costing method. Figure 17 gave a sample of the computer printout involved. Table 44 provides the cross-referer.ee between cost output and model cards. These cost items consist of the following:

101

Tablc 44. t'osl Output, CV.H liquation Numljer, und .M<xlcl C^ard Address Cross Hcieroaeo -System liecurriug Production Cost.

Hi) i ^i I 'fmlini ion i i I'TKIIH lion ( i

I l;ii 'iw :i i i i -nij*. .in ill.-

S\l -.UliniUi: ! IL.IIll I I HI;'.

Ml .l.i llllll.1. 1 ■ "lllil.

M.miii.M tin ill/,

W in.,

i 1.1| i. 'iiii.il :->i;ilill i. ii

V. ill. :il M.'ilul i, i •

N:u .-Hi

1 ::llilllm I ii .ir

Millar. ( niiirol-

1 in ir.iiiini'iilal l '.inlrnl S_\ slcin

ll\ ilraul les I'ncunial ir'<

I irrli'ical

In.sliiiini Tit.s

Auxil mrs I'nwrr I nit

A iiiiaiiu'iil 1'riivlKiiiit.s

l.il^üif Assnrialnl 1 quipiiifiit

I ucl Sysli'in

AVUIMI.'.S I'rovi.sion

Furnlyhiiig ;ui(l l.'qulpnu'iil

'l'iiUil MaJiuliR-'Uiruig

* K(|uaUi)n 22 is uttoi at each of llicso polntH.

Ii..llai"- llnuis I).,Mais Ifniir.s I)..liar:

I ■! (1-1

I V- I !

I ., Ijn, i :-:: i i 7-

i .| d'.ii

I V- I .' I , -i :;

I 'l i.'li

/ 7--1. ::

'/. THU 2

'/. 7!)II 2 i

i / 7» 1 2

/. 7,,I2 2

t

/ 7ilA 2

i +

/ 7;M 2 i

/. 7'.i.r1 2

Z 7'JI1 2

♦

/. 7'J7 2

♦

/. 7<JS 2

♦

/. 7'JlJ 2

K HOI) 2

i ni

7-1 :. i 7-1 I.

I M (2 1)

■/ 7-:; 1

/ 7-. I

Z 7si, 1

/ 7-7 I

/ 7--. 1

Z 7-:i) 1

Z 7'.)ii I

Z 71)1 1

Z 7'J2 I

Z 7l.i:i 1 i

Z 7'.M I

z 7'.ir, i

Z TUli i

Z 7lJV -I

Z 7<M -I

t

Z 7<l,.) I

|{ HDD -1

Z 7-M I,

Z 7-1 (.

Z 7<, i.

Z 7-ii I.

Z 7-,7 Ii

Z 7^ i.

Z 7-'.I ii

z 7111) i;

z 7;ii i.

Z 71)2 I.

z 7'.i: ii

Z 7',)-I Ii

z 7'.i:. r, j

i Z 7Utj li

Z 7'.) 7 li j

* i Z 7!)H li

i

7. 7!)!! (i

H HDD II

Siislainins; Kn^iruvruiK

Su.staiiuni; Tooling

Mimuraciuring (Includinfj, Quality Conti'ol) for

Wmg

llori/onlal Ktabillzcr

\'crlical .Stabilizer

Kust'lu^c

Nar riles

Lamiin}; Gvav

Subsystems

Kslimatcs arc proyidttl lor three alternative quantities: The RDT&K ([luuititj' and two alternative production quantities. Quantity inputs are the NAW EL1ST variables QN2, QN.'), and QN5.

h\ the system costing method manufacturing' costs are estimated in dollars. Conver- sion of engineering and tooling hours to dollars is the same process previously des- cribed. These calculations occur at (781, 2), (781,4), (781, G), (782,2), (782,4).

SUSTAINING KNGINKKRINC: HOURS

CER form

Tile equation used for the RIJT^K quantity is

SKI I ■■ TKL (QN2 ' - 1) (18)

where

SKH : Sustaining engineering hours

TKL - Total engineering labor

(^.\2 RJJT&E quantity

KS r- Scaling against quantity

The equation used for procurement quantities is

SKH - TKL (QN4 '" - QN2 * ), (19)

1G3

KS KS or it^Nii - QK2 )t(»r ihr sccoml prDciii'cmciil rjuaiilily, WIHM'C

hiinils

(^N'2 tuui KS arc NAMKI.IST SKiMMAUV uipuLs. QNli is ohlainrd Lnnn pro^i^mi plan

data. KS lias a \aluc of 0.2 as previously disrusscil. QN'A and QN;") aro ulU'i-imtivc

producl ion (|uanl ilics.

Sl'SiAlNiNC TOOUNG HOliUS

CKH Korin

'I'hc ((lualion used for the liDTKK (|uanlily is

TV STii (■J'TM ■ TTK) (g.\T2 - 1 ) {20)

whore

STII L Suslainin^ tcxjling hours

TT.M ToUU tool uumulacturing hours

TTK Tolal lool i-nginct-rmg hours

'JT Stuiling against (|uanl.Uy

The cquatinn used for procurcincnt quanlitu'.s is

TU TU STII- (TTM i TTK)(QN4 - QN2 ), (21)

TU TU or (QN(j - (^N2 ) lor tin.' second proeurement (iiianLily.

in puls

TU has a value of Ü. 14 as previously discuSHocl.

MANUKACTUlÜNU UKCUK1ÜNG COSTS

Based on first unit manuTacturing costs, recurring manufacturing costs are projected

on a dollar basis. Kxactly the same procedure is used as was used for the trade study

recurring production costs by structural element, described in Section 2.3.2. A

164

7,-curd calculal ion ha.sctl on TMK.M 'JH is used. ThLs has Ihr oqualioiuij ionn,

(.'osl i:slimali'(l I "E vsz)

with Iho sanu-lirlLnilions as in Scclion 2..'5. 2. Tho culcnhiLioil is ijcrlni'mcii for catii ol Ihc aiiTi'ail siii)S\s!i'iiis.

(.(Hialily C'onlrol cosls arc inehulcd in Ihc firsl unit cost cslimaic since liicy were in- cluded in the original data base.

.'i.-l IMUXiRAM OI'KHATION AND INSTRUCTION

This discussion covers tlic same topics considered in coimeetion vviih the trade study method. Computer program integration is not applicable, however, since lor system costinij,, KUpporting programs are not described. Input data is devetoped from a unnip weight statement, certain design and program data, and historical cost data, requirLng an appn)priate pre-design activity. 'J'ime sharing is apjilicable in a nnuuier similar to thai described in Section 2.4.3,

NAMFTTST CUHVR and NA.MKLLST SIJM.MAKY input cards are prepared according to the NAMEL1ST variables dictionary (Appendix K). A computer printout ot the required input cards is given in Appendix K as a guide.

165

.SKCTION IV

OK.MONS'i'RATIOiN KINS

■j'c.si r;usi- csiimalcs have lu'rii pci'lonncd lor cadi ol (he Iwo cslimalin^ mt'LhocIy u.sing' Ihi' cost model conipiilcr program and the i-csulls from runs of the supporting synthe- sis programs, in the ease of the trade study method. I'rinlouts from these runs have been used to illustrate the methods in the previous sections. This seelion describes the steps taken mid the information ^aUici'ed in setting up the demonstration runs. An evaluation from the standpoint of estimating results is provided in the Technical Volume, Results of the demonstration runs are given in Appendix M.

Tile B-.ls aircraft program was selected as the test case for both the trade study and the system cost estimating methods. Other candidates were considered but were not selected for various reasons:

The selecfion had to be limited to a Convair program since data collection ex- perience indicated thai access to data was a problem otherwise. Choice of the H-rjS was supported by the availability of results from a NASA-funded cost data study, Reference 5. The V-\ 1IA was a candidate, but the cost of collect- ing comparative actual data was beyond the budgetary limits of the study.

Data for the B-5K program were obtained from four general sources; (i) 15-58 Cost Data Study Report, Reference f»; (2) B-58 Cost History; (.'J) Actual Weight and Balance Report for B-58A (Bomber Airplane), FZW-4-Ü38, Reference G; and (4) other internal company data sources. The B-öS Cost History is a specific internal document prepared as part of the company's ongoing cost research.

The results of the trade study and system runs cannot be directly compared since they are set up in different time frames: the trade study method estimates historical costs using a composite, then year labor rate, whereas the system cost estimate is made in 11)74 dollars. The trade study method estimates labor and material separately, so that by applying the appropriate labor rate and material cost factor, economic escala- tion is taken into account. Some ambiguity occurs in the case of material cost, how- ever, since the historical data typically intermingles production material associated with structure and purchased parts associated with the functional subsystems.

The system cost estimating factors were developed from a data base that had been ad- justed to U>7Ü dollars. An inflation adjustment was applied to these results to convert to 1!J74 dollars. Going back to the 107 0 data base, or any intervening year, requires only a simple series of F-card changes. However, moving back to any earlier period .vould require a more comprehensive adjustment to the data base.

106

For the usual estimating situation, estimates will be made in the eurrcnt time frame, and comparisons of the results from the methods can be made. Making a comparison in the case of the B-58 would be time consuming and still not conclusive due to the difficulties in determining precise escalation adjustment factors.

The demonstration case as presently set up does provide a comprehensive test of both methods. An analysis of estimates and a comparison to actuals, both from the B-58 aircraft and other aircraft, at subsystem and detailed levels, has been accomplished and is reported in the Technical Volume. Verification of the estimating logic and de- bugging of the computer program have been largely accomplished. The demonstration case also served as a vehicle to coordinate the installation of the system at AFFDL.

4.1 TRADE STUDY ESTIMATING DEMONSTRATION RUN

The steps used in making this run are described below. They differ from the nominal procedure inasmuch as actual design and weights data were available eliminating the need for synthesis data and resulting in deemphasis on the demonstration of the design synthesis computer programs.

First Unit Cost Estimate

a. Obtained detailed weights data by review of the detailed weight statement contained in Reference 6.

b. Determined type of construction and material used for the basic structure from a review of Reference 5 and determined approximate weight breakdown.

c. Determined complexity factor by reference to complexity factor tables for detail fabrication and subassembly.

d. Prepared an input data summary similar to Figure 26 for aerodynamic surfaces and fuselage hardware elements for detail fabrication hours and similar to .?Lgure 27 for subassembly hours.

e. Developed design data required by Figure 28 from Reference 5.

f. Entered detailed weights data for secondary structure in a Figure 29-type sum- mary sheet.

g. Analyzed secondary structure descriptions contained in Reference 5, determined type of construction and material, determined complexity factor by analogy to data contained in Tables 25 and 26, and entered fabrication and subassembly com- plexity factors in a Figure 29-type summary sheet.

h. Developed design data required by Figure 30 from Reference 5.

i. Obtained-material factors required by Figure 31 from Tables 31 and 32 for pri- mary structure.

167

j. Obtaincc! material factors rfquirod by Figure 32 I'rom Tables 'A'A and .'54 L"or second- ary structure.

k. Determined tasteiuT complexity tor entries required by Figure ','<[]. Data is ob- tained from Table 36,

Recurring Production Cost Estimate

1. Determined quantities to be estimated based on original program plan,

m. Analyzed historical cost data to determine manufacturing and tool manui'acturing later rates to be used to represent historical B-58 costs.

n. Input values for the matrix of learning curve factors: hardware elements by cate- gory of cost, i.e., detail fabrication labor, assembly labor, and material. These factors arc based on general experience. Analysis oi learning curves at this level of detail is considered to be beyond the scope of tills contract. Appendix D shows the extent of the learning curve breakout.

Nonrecurring Design and Development Costs

o. Determined AMPIl weight values from Reference 6.

p. Input estimating coefficients obtained from Appendix I for engineering direct labor (EH) and total manui'acturing later (TMF).

q. Determined maximum production rate from historical data.

r. Analyzed historical cost data to determine other labor rates: engineering, tool manufacturing, tool engineering, composite rate for manufacturing d^ /olopment and plant engineering', and quality control.

s. Input values for composite learning curves for fabrication, assembly, and material costs.

Appendix B gives a sample printout of the input elements. This sample was taken from the B-58 demonstration run and may be referred to for the input values used for this test case. Appendix M provides the additional estimating results, in computer print- out form, which, when taken in conjunction with the other printout shown for illustra- tive purposes throughout this Handbook, constitutes a complete set of printouts. Table M-l gives the location of the output set.

4.2 SYSTEM COST ESTIMATING DEMONSTRATION RUN

The steps used in making this run are described below. In the case of the system cost- ing test case, sources for the required input data are not precisely determined so that the procedures described represent a typical case. Reference is made to Appendix K, which contains a printout of the. Input elements as used for the test case and a

168

NAMELIST variables dicllouarv. The latter selves as a summary table tor the re- quired inputs and will be referred to in the discussion below.

Nonrecurring Design and Development Cost Estimalc

a. Obtained weights data lor basic structure by review ol the detailed weight state- ment contained in Reference 6.

b. Entered value for cost-weight scaling based on data contained in Figures 1-1 through 1-6, and L-l through L-12.

c. Developed complexity factor values by judgment based on a comparison of characteristics between the B-58 component estimated and a suitable analog. Input value is the ratio of the analog to the best lit curve suitably factored. See pages 150 and 152 of this volume and page 93 forward in Volume 1.

d. Determined AM PR weight for basic structure from Reference 6.

e. Obtained weights data for secondary structure by review of the detailed weight statement contained in Reference 6.

f. Entered an estimated value for a composite engineering later rate (i. e. , to cover the various types of engineering involved) and the values for EM and TI obtained from the NAMELiST variables dictionary.

g. Entered tooling' complexity factors as obtained from Table 40.

h. Entered complexity factor TE7 as the ratio of the B-58 actual cost to the compar- able point on a best fit, curve.

i. Determined production rate from historical data.

j. Entered value for TR, scaling with production rate increase, from NAMELIST variables dictionary. Value is based on manufacturing experience.

k. Estimated tool manufacturing and tool engineering labor rates based on historical data or obtained from trade study data.

1. Determined ratio of tool engineering to tool manufacturing- from historical data. See Table 1-2.

in. Obtained rate tool engineering factor, ratio of tooling material to tool manufactur- ing, manufacturing- aids factor, manufacturing development factor, ratio of quality control to engineering- labor, and ratio of Q/C to tool manufacturing labor from NAMELIST variables dictionary. Values are based on manufacturing- experience.

n. Determined manufacturing aids, manufacturing development, and quality control labor rates from historical data.

o. Obtained speed from design data.

p. Determined development quantity from historical data.

169

First Unit Cost Estimate

q. Determmed complexity factor values, UF1 through UF17, from Figures L-14 through L-30 either by taking the ratio of the B-58 actual cost to a comparable point on a best lit curve or by judgment based on a comparison of characteristics between the B-58 component and the average represented by a best fit curve.

Recurring Airframc Production Costs

r. Determined quantities to be estimated based on original program plan.

s. Entered sustaining engineering and sustaining tooling exponents from the NAME- LIST variables dictionary.

t. Determmed composite tool manufacturing-fool engineering labor rate.

u. Input values for the matrix of learning curve factors: hardware subsystem by quantity block.

Appendix K gives a sample printout of the input elements. This sample was taken from the B-58 demonstration run and may be referred to for the input values used for the test case. The printouts shown in Figures 14 through 17 give the estimating results of these inputs,

4. 3 COMBINED METHODS OPERATION

The combined methods operation is limited to the substitution of basic structure first unit costs from the trade study costing method in the system costing results. The combined mode thus involves basically the system cost estimating logic as augmented by the substitution of certain trade study calculations: those occurring from F-cards

F751,4 through F756,4. The scries of terms (61, 9), (124,9), (173,9), (229,9), (280,9), and (314,9) serve to interconnect the two methods. If the combined mode is to be used, then the first part of the respective equations, i. e. , the part in front of the plus sign, must be zeroed out by an appropriate entry and the calculations produc- ing these terms must be activated from the trade study model card deck. Each of these terms is traced back through the calculations, the necessary model cards are activated by insertion in the input deck, the relevant NAMELIST variables are input, and the case can then be run as before. The terms involved are defined as follows:

(61,9) - Wing'first unit labor and material dollar cost (124,9) - Horizontal stabilizer first unit labor and material dollar cost (173,9) - Vertical (229,9) = Fuselage (280,9) = Nacelles (314,9) ~ Landing Cear

it ii ii ir n ii II

II II II II II II 11

II II II II II II I!

II II II II II II M

170

Li' these terms are substituted, then the recurring airframe production costs automatic- ally reflect the substitution. The system costing method then provides a detailed anal- ysis of basic structure costs, and detailed costs are provided either Hü a partial print- out of the trade study format or from the SAV matrix.

4.4 ABBREVIATED RUNS

Abbreviated or partial runs can be made in the case of the irade study cost estimating method. This is exemplified in the B-58 test ease in two ways: (1) Since the B-58 aircraft does not have a horizontal stabilizer, one of the six hardware elements modeled is omitted and (2) One production quantity, instead of two, is evaluated.

The elimination of the horizontal stabilizer is accomplished by removing the appropriate model cards:

a. Cards F-100 through F-150, the eight cards immediately preceeding, and the two cards immediately following.

b. Cards F-365 through F-390 and the two cards immediately preceeding and immediately following.

c. Cards F-507 through F-532 and the two cards immediately preceeding and immediately following.

The elimination of the second production quantity is accomplished by removing the following cards:

a. Cards F-475 through F-613, the immediately preceeding two cards and the following one card.

b. Cards F-650 through F-658, the immediately preceeding six cards and the following card.

The elimination from consideration of other hardware elements is accomplished by removing comparable sets of cards.

4.5 ESTIMATING ACCURACY

The demonstration runs give evidence of a fully operational cost model. A full assess- ment of estimating accuracy has not been attempted, however, in view of the fact that only one lest case has been identified and completed. Based on this case, a limited evaluation of estimating results is discussed in Volume 1, Section 6. In addition, however, a lew qualitative statements can be made regarding"the esti- mating accuracy that can be expected from the use of a model of this type.

171

The initial decision regarding liie level oi' detail at which to pursue the development and the concomitant acceptance of the state of data availability described as un- limited data (the idea tluit the expected future availability of data would be reflected in the level of detail estimated) limited the use of statistical estimating approaches, hi the form ol the model that resulted, input development is an important key to estimating accuracy. The experience of the user, the availability of expert judg- ment, the relevance of available analogs, the performance of experiments, and the results of special studies all are channels for improving input development, which in turn improves the estimating results.

Again with regard to input, the accuracy of the output of the supporting design synthesis and weight estimating programs is of great import. The overall accuracy of the methodology must be judged on the basis of the entire set of programs used.

In using a model of this type, and in fact, in any estimating process, accuracy is dependent upon the degree of product definition and the extent to which the product incorporates advanced technology, ha some respects these amount to the same thing: the application of advanced technology tends to make product definition more difficult, but product definition can lag for other reasons also. In this model im- proved product definition enhances accuracy by facilitating the choice of better com- plexity facto:', providing more accurate definition of materials and construction categories, and insuring a more representative choice of analogs. Dealing with advanced technologies reduces the accuracy of estimates because of data base limitations. This will always be true, but the use of a detailed estimating procedures permits a more precise focusing on the problem.

The current model provides credible estimates. It is felt, however, that develop- ment of the full potential of the model involves: (1) additional user experience; (2) additions to the cost data base; (3) continuing improvements in the supporting synthesis and weight analysis programs; and (4) development and incorporation of specific additional features in the cost model logic. The additional user experience will also, undoubtedly, provide feedback for model improvements and steps to augment the data base.

172