Research AdviceAssessment Facilitation Forecasts EvaluationAnalysis

We provide orientation.

This compliment from one of our long-standing clients is

a constant source of motivation.

The task we have set ourselves is to be one step ahead

and at the same time to have a thorough grasp of the

immediate challenges shaping the current situation.

We have more than 50 years experience in analysing

issues which will have an impact on future society:

topics such as demographic change, globalization and

climate change. As a Swiss company with its roots in the

Economics Department of the University of Basel, we are

committed to clear values like thoroughness, innovative

methods, precise project management and, not least,

sustainable results.

The 120 experts working for Prognos are constantly

generating new insights and applying their knowledge

to the practical advantage of our clients. We show our

clients the way forward through today’s deluge of

information, giving them an important edge over the

competition. Research competence, genuine expertise,

mixed with commitment, experience and creativity are

the fundamental principles that underlie our work. On

this basis we analyse and evaluate data and facts, provide

consultation on strategic issues and accompany processes.

All this in an interdisciplinary team – and under one roof:

Prognos – European centre for economic research and

strategy consulting.

Christian BöllhoffCEO / Partner

T here are many economic

institutes, consultants and

think tanks – but only one

Prognos.“

„

Sectors and markets, values, trends and technologies –

the way our future will take us depends on a host of

different variables which, in turn, are themselves subject

to increasingly complex interactions. For us, shedding

light on future developments means being able to identify

complicated trends in all their detail, while still retaining

a sense of the whole.

Founded 1959 in Basel in the best tradition of Swiss

neutrality and internationality, Prognos has been

monitoring the key economic and social issues of our time

for over 50 years. Our objective analysis, expert forecasts

and comprehensive evaluation enables us to help you

identify and assess possible options for future action. We

equip corporations, the public sector and international

organizations with a practice-oriented framework for

reaching decisions and developing future strategies.

Prognos is dedicated to the task of building bridges

between theory and practice, between science, the

economy and politics. Interpreting where the future is

taking us calls for in-depth analysis from many different

perspectives. That is why the Prognos team comprises

experts from different disciplines, who together develop

solution-oriented concepts for our clients.

Do you know where you

are heading for in future?

Prognos AG will help you

navigate your future course.

We advise political institutions and private enterprise on

complex decision-making and implementation processes.

By providing strategic support for policy makers we

strengthen the future position of our clients. Besides

drawing up studies and expert analysis, our spectrum

also includes managing and facilitating processes of

strategy formulation and decision making, as well as

accompanying their implementation.

We assess relevant corporate and political developments

on the basis of facts and offer solutions. Drawing on our

broad experience of different sectors and technologies,

we are able to support you in your decision making and

help you prepare to face the challenges of the future.

We facilitate decision-making and planning processes

within the context of complex investment projects. The

basis for this is provided by in-depth analysis of potential

conflict between the different stakeholders involved. Our

goal is always to reach agreement in consensus-oriented

dialogue.

A s leading consultants on

crucial future issues we

provide European-wide

support and advice to decision

makers in politics, business and

society.

We work on the basis of latest scientific insights and

create crucial knowledge and competitive advantages

for our clients.

We forecast medium- and long-term developments in the

economy and politics on the basis of proven economic

models. This brings the future sharper in focus and

reveals what to expect over the next 5 to 25 years. Beside

economic indicators, we monitor changes in the business

and political environments, analysing the impacts of

dependent variables and identifying the factors which

help you shape your future.

We evaluate public funding programmes in diverse

political fields. We assess public investment projects

in respect of their feasibility, benefits and effects and

analyse their impact on job markets, value creation and

public expenditure. This helps you devise purposeful

target- and outcome-oriented programme control.

We analyse economic, political and societal developments

as well as technological trends. In everything we do we

adopt a systematic perspective which is focused on your

concrete need for consultation.

We research for our clients on the basis of our own

investigations and numerous public and private-sector

data sources. We are assisted in this by a national and

Europe-wide partner network. Take advantage of our

many years of experience and our networks – for market

research or company profiles, for instance.

By the year 2030 Germany will be facing an acute

shortage of personnel and skilled workers

amounting to more than 5 million people.

In 2030 over 25% of all employees will be

engaged in knowledge-based occupations.

Economic growth of 1% p.a. will be the norm up to 2035.

Asia will become increasingly more important as a target

region, although two thirds of all German exports will

continue to go to countries within the European Union.

Despite rising economic performance in the medium

term, energy consumption in Germany will

fall in absolute terms by the year 2020.

The best way to be prepared

for the future is to prepare

oneself for the future.

Prognos focuses on topics of pivotal importance for the

shaping of future economic and societal developments.

In finding solutions to fit our clients’ specific needs,

we draw on the vast experience gathered from the past

consultation projects we have carried out for business

and politics as well as the expertise possessed by our

team of experts in the various disciplines.

This is at the root of our competency. Know-how in

analysing the pressing topics of our times is reflected in

our broad spectrum of consultancy services:

• Economics and labour

• Health, family & social policy

• Structural policy & regional development

• Innovation, technology & education

• Infrastructure & dialogue processes

• Energy & climate protection

• Public management

Interdisciplinary collaboration between the expert

members of our team enables us to develop solutions of

the right kind: holistic, practice oriented, and based on

state-of-the-art scientific findings.

201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

We provide orientation.

© Prognos AG 2011Layout: atelier w, Basel

2030 © Photos: Oliver Möst/Florian von Ploetz, Berlin; Getty Images, Fotolia We thank the Technical University of Berlin, the Ludwig-Erhard-Haus, MergeOptics GmbH and MPS Betriebsführungsgesellschaft mbH for their friendly support!

BaselPrognos AG Henric Petri-Str. 9 CH-4010 Basel Phone: +41 61 3273-200 Fax: +41 61 3273-300

BerlinPrognos AG Goethestr. 85 D-10623 Berlin Phone: +49 30 52 00 59-200 Fax: +49 30 52 00 59-201

BremenPrognos AG Wilhelm-Herbst-Str. 5 D-28359 Bremen Phone: +49 421 2015-784 Fax: +49 421 2015-789

BrusselsPrognos AG Square de Meeûs 37 B-1000 Brussels Phone: +32 2791-7734 Fax: +32 2791-7900

DusseldorfPrognos AG Schwanenmarkt 21 D-40213 Dusseldorf Phone: +49 211 887-3131 Fax: +49 211 887-3141

MunichPrognos AG Sonnenstr. 14 D-80331 Munich Phone: +49 89 5151 46-170 Fax: +49 89 5151 46-171

StuttgartPrognos AGFriedrichstr. 15 D-70174 Stuttgart Phone: +49 711 4 90 39-745 Fax: +49 711 4 90 39-640

info@prognos.comwww.prognos.com

1

The best way to be prepared for the future is to prepare oneself for the future.

Innovation RegionsSociety Globalization InfrastructureEnergyDemographics

3

Economics & labourCaught between globalisation, demographic change, job markets and social security.

O ngoing globalization is accele­rating changes in industrial

structures, confronting workers with new challenges. Demographic change has an impact on the structure of job markets and the performance of social welfare systems, while at the same time transforming the role of the state in our society.

We analyse the interplay between these factors and forecast the consequences over the next 20 to 30 years. In this way we provide a sounder basis for decision­making on the part of enterprises, business associations, foundations and public actors in Germany and Europe.

Aided by detailed long­term econo­metric models, we point the way into the future and deliver dependable scenarios and forecasts. Furthermore, we investigate central societal, political and technological trends and analyse their impact on enterprises,

industries and society as a whole. In all this, we cooperate with an international network of think tanks and research institutes. Main focuses

> Forecasts, scenarios and trends as a basis for future strategies and investment policy

> Consistent medium- and long-term forecasts of economic development in Germany, Europe and worldwide

> Structural and sector-specific development of the economy, sector-specific forecasts and assessments

> Principle issues of economic policy

> Labour markets: jobs and workers of the future – between a shortage of skilled workers and unemployment

> Social security – projections and scenarios on the aging of society

> Impact assessment of legislation – costs and benefits of reforms and legislation from a national and a European perspective

Client Project

Consequences for the German economy following the free trade agreement between the European Union and Korea and India

Financing issues of health and care insurance within the perspective of financial and economic policy

Developing the system of pension insurance into a system based on employees’ contributions – consequences for income distribution, future contributions and the economy as a whole

The employment landscape in 2030 – jobs and employees of the future –

Is Germany heading towards a general shortage of labour?

Associations and enterprises

Effects on German industry and enterprises resulting from changes to the law on production and & employment

Scenarios for the automobile up to 2030 – facts, trends and courses of action

4

Health, family and social policyIndividual freedoms arise from the stabilisation of social cohesion

and sustainable social security structures.

I n the area of consultation encom­passing health, family and social

policy, Prognos addresses a variety of highly relevant social topics. The spectrum ranges from new forms of medical care, through prevention and rehabilitation, up to the targeted advancement of youth and family policy, help and care for the elderly.

We provide strategy consulting for enterprises active in markets concerned with health and the elderly, as well as outcome­oriented development of policy instruments in a number of different areas, including family policy, child and youth welfare, integration and the promotion of civic involvement.

We combine methods of economics and the social sciences in strict accordance with our clients’ needs. We support decision­makers in politics, business associations and private enterprises via analyses of health and social policy, as well as the design, implementation and evaluation of pilot projects.

We also provide policy makers with strategic and process­oriented advice.

Client Project

Coordination unit of the centre of competence for family benefits

Scientific monitoring of the quality and cooperation model (Family doctor model)

Hardship clause and the financing of social equity in the compulsory health insurance scheme

Scientific consultation on independent patient counselling

Ministerium für Soziales und Gesundheit

Report on the living situation of households with children

> Detailed long-term quantitative evaluation

> Short-term impact analyses

> Design, monitoring, implementation and evaluation of model programmes and projects

> Strategy and process policy advice for ministries, enterprises, social welfare institutions

> Scenario techniques, Delphi methods and Delphi-Compact

> Strategy consulting

> SWOT analysis, value benefit analysis, cost-efficiency analysis

> Impact assessment of legislation and analyses of potentials

> Forecasts and market analyses

> System analyses, international system comparisons, and policy evaluation

Main focuses

5

Structural policy and regional developmentCompetition between the regions for enterprises, investment and skilled workers is

intensifying. We develop strategies for the private and the public sector.

H ow can our economic future be secured in a globalized service­

and knowledge­based society? How can a region be successful in compe­tition for enterprises, investment and skilled workers? These are the crucial questions decision­makers in the administration, politics and enterprises have to address today, in order to remain fit for tomorrow’s world.

Competition between the regions is intensifying, investment locations compare themselves in benchmarks. The capacity for developing strategies and innovative solutions at all levels of state action will determine the future success of federal states, regions, towns and local communities. To an ever­increasing degree, the sustainability of regions and business locations is being determined by the talent of their workforce and levels of technology and social tolerance. We help our clients utilize their potential for regional development and attracting investment to the utmost and aid them in adopting the most suitable policy instruments in respect of sustainable investment and planning for the future. We support enterprises in their choice of location

Client Project

Implementation of the goal “Regional Competitiveness and Employ­ment“ within the framework of European structural policy and options for supporting its continuance in the funding period 2014­2020

Future location Bottrop – building a development strategy and

initiating a project­oriented future process for the town of Bottrop

Evaluation of the potential and feasibility of a business start­up centre for spin­offs at Jacobs University Bremen

Monitoring the new orientation of the economic promotion policy of the Federal State of Brandenburg

Main focuses

> Strategies, measures, tasks, organization and efficiency of economic development bodies

> Evaluation of the impact and efficiency of public funding programmes

> Analyses of cluster and competence fields. Setting up and monitoring networks

> Economic evaluation of investment, programmes: cost benefit and feasibility

> Market, sector-specific, benefit and location analysis

> Regional monitoring and benchmarking

> Implementation of strategy processes

with market research and customer analyses. Our 50 years of experience in business consultancy and the extensive know­how of our expert team is our clients’ guarantee for constructive and forward­looking solutions.

6

Innovation, technology & educationThe success of innovations is crucial for the future

competitiveness of the economy, society and the science sector.

I nnovations are prerequisite for entrepreneurial success and eco­

nomic growth. However, economic performance cannot be measured merely by technological advance alone. Crucial to whether an economy can remain competitive on an international level is the choice of economic and socially relevant issues addressed, the identification of important trends and the availability of creative minds.

Prognos analyses innovations not only from a technological point of view, but rather as structuring processes of business and society. We examine and reflect on the regional anchoring of the innovation actors, processes of networking and cluster formation, as well as aspects of vocational training and further education.

We analyse and evaluate the policy instruments that support the ca­pacity of the economy, society and science for innovations and provide

Client Project

Monitoring and impact research on high­tech strategy – System evaluation „SME­Innovative“

System evaluation of research funding and financing

Status and perspectives of employment in Germany’s nano­

technology sector

Delphi survey on the perception and prioritization of risks in the area of consumer health protection

Synoptic comparison of quality assurance systems in vocational and academic education

Integration of fitness­for­work consultation for SMEs in existing consultation structures (intakt!)

> Evaluation of support programmes for innovation and technology

> Technological trend analyses on the basis of forecasting models

> Empirical studies in the area of education and innovation research

> Regional educational requirements and analyses of skilled workers

> Monitoring and controlling of processes of cluster development

> Studies on issues surrounding ter-tiary education and science policy

> Delphi and scenario analyses

> Evaluation of educational and employment programmes

Main focuses

consultation on strategic processes to promote innovation. We identify technological trends, their impact on individual markets as well as

educational challenges and future strategies. Our analyses take into account international, federal, local and regional policy perspectives.

7

Infrastructure & dialogue processesFuture-proof planning, development and

successful communication of technical infrastructure.

S upplying the population, business and industry with electricity, gas,

water and district heating as well as services like the disposal of refuse and treatment of sewage are among the essential prerequisites of a functioning society and a competitive economy.

Along with public utilities, a reliable and affordable infrastructure con­stitutes a crucial location factor in today’s competition for skilled workers and jobs. However, the changing parameters of economic and demographic development as well as climate change mean that the infrastructure constantly has to be adapted to meet the needs placed on it.

Client Project

The impacts of demographic and economic change on demand for energy and water up to 2030

Different clients Waste streams in Europe and the possible potential for CO2 emission reduction by recycling and energy recovery

Communication support for the grid expansion in North Germany

Municipal drainage system Mannheim – future need for action on the part of Mannheim’s drainage system in front of a backdrop of demographic, economic and technological development

As a rule, technical infrastructures call for high investment and need to be of long duration. With this in mind, the question of how demand will develop in the long term is of utmost importance for planning capacity utilization and refinancing. Therefore, analyses and projections of small­ and large­scale energy demand and waste generation are at the centre of the work we do for our clients, together with an examination of how short­ and long­term demand can be covered using existing and planned capacities. The results of our research provide public and private decision­makers with a sound foundation for planning investment and strategy processes.

In the implementation phase we help our clients communicate their intentions to policy­makers, the corporate sector and the population at large. Our spectrum of offers in this sphere includes workshops with stakeholders, in­process forums, coaching, media and public relations, as well as information events.

> Evaluation of market potential and future development options for enterprises in the sectors of energy, waste and water management

> Analysis and assessment of the market and competitiveness

> Price analyses and forecasts

> Strategy consultancy for strategy development and decisions for investments or strategic growth

> Transaction consultancy in waste and water management (market and commercial due diligence)

> Assessment of grids and power generation projects

> Analysis and assessment of the impact of demographic and eco-nomic change on future demand for infrastructure

> Communication management for the implementation of conflict-prone large-scale energy, waste and water management projects

Main focuses

8

Energy & climate protectionPrognos develops the basis for decision by business,

public bodies and international organizations.

How will energy consumption develop in future? What are the

consequences of climate protection for business, consumers and policy makers? What courses of action and instruments are needed for its implementation? What benefits can be derived from renewable energies and a more efficient use of energy? What impact does demographic change have on energy supply and demand? What developments will take place on national and international energy markets? How can enterprises make use of newly created opportunities and minimize risks?

Political and corporate policies determine the security, environmental effects and cost of future supplies of energy. The complex repercussions of the energy sector on the economy, society and international relations pose a special challenge for policy makers and enterprises.

Client Project

Energy Scenarios for The German Energy Concept 2010

Energy perspectives for Switzerland up to 2050

Monitoring and consultation on the implementation of an energy and climate strategy for North Rhine Westphalia

Scenario simulations on prices for primary energy sources and electricity up to 2030

Energy location Hamburg – The energy and regional potential of Vattenfall Europe for the metropolitan area of Hamburg

Environmental, energy and resource efficiency in the printing and paper industry

> Foundations for decision-making by business and public bodies

> Effects of energy and climate policies

> Analyses, scenarios and projections for entire energy systems and individual aspects

> Evaluation of the instruments, measures and legislation on the efficiency and effectiveness of energy policy

> Analysis of the potential and markets for energy efficiency, energy services and renewable energies

> Assessment of technological options in energy conversion and the use of energy

> The future development of demand for electricity, gas and heat

> Long-term competitive analysis of power stations and price projections for electricity and fuel

Main focusOur expert advice provides a sound basis for developing viable policies concerning the future supply and use of energy. We support enterprises with detailed market analyses and expert opinions, as well as projections of future market developments.

9

Public ManagementDeveloping strategies, shaping structures, optimizing processes –

guiding Public Management.

A ctors in public and private enterprises, politics and

administration find themselves confronted with an abundance of fundamental challenges: How can they prepare themselves today to be fit for dealing with future issues? How can organisational structures be streamlined? How can efficient and effective instruments of strategic and operative control be developed and implemented? How can suitable personnel be recruited, motivated and retained? How big will the need for skilled personnel be in future and where can we expect shortages? How can the business case for public investments be made?

Prognos provides answers to all these questions and more. We provide advice to the public sector and municipal enterprises in the areas surrounding investment, human resources, organization and governance. Our consultation philosophy and services combine the approaches and methods of modern public management with the proved expertise of our team of

Client Project

Demography­oriented human resource management in the public administration

An organizational study of the offices of the Joint Federal Committee Gemeinsame Bundesausschuss (G­BA)

Fit­for­purpose study of mergers and cooperation projects between local authorities in Switzerland

Business plan public utilities – market potential – organizational concept – performance audit

Future Report on the modern state

Main focus

> Strategic and economic assessment of investment decisions

> Cost-benefit analyses, performance audits and business plans

> Strategy-driven and process-oriented management consultancy

> Strategy development, target definition and strategy implementation

> Development of demographically sensitive human resource management strategies

specialists. Consultation encompasses both an inner view of things as well as the relevant framework conditions. These include socio­demographic trends, the situation on relevant labour markets, and the tasks that public administration will have to face in the future.

The strength of our Public Management

team lies in its ability to reconcile the optimization of public tasks, structures and processes with the need for modernization in relevant fields of public policy. We thus give sustainable support to the strategic outcome­based modernization of politics and administration at levels of federal government, the federal states, local authorities and municipal enterprises.

Luzern

10

Prognos publications

Waste Management Report / European Atlas of Secondary Raw MaterialsIn front of a backdrop of climate and environmental protection, as well as the sustainable use of resources, the transition of the waste and recycling sector into a resource industry is having an ongoing effect on investment decisions. This Prognos report on waste management together with the European Atlas of Secondary Raw Materials provides a wealth of material on fact­based strategic analyses of market structures and actors as well as the current and future development of waste volumes, capacities and prices in Germany and Europe.

Globalization ReportThis annual report on globalization focuses on the most attractive foreign markets for German enterprises. The Prognos Free Trade and Investment Index detail those markets with the highest potential. Central indicators comprise e.g. size of market, stage of economic development and obstacles to trade. Selected sectors are the subject of special assessments. The Index is embedded in a special topic on current issues of globalization which changes every year.

Future Atlas Regions (Zukunftsatlas Regionen)Germany’s regions competing over the future: this future atlas of the regions describes the regional distribution of future opportunities and risks in Germany on the basis of 29 socio­economic indicators. Which districts, towns and cities reveal particularly high innovative capacity and competitiveness? How can regions position themselves in the competition to attract investment? The future atlas of the regions contains detailed rankings and the relevant data in answer to these questions.

Future Atlas Industries (Zukunftsatlas Branchen)This future atlas examines sector­specific concentrations of investment and regional clusters. Where in Germany is it possible to find future­oriented sectors and growth drivers in industry and services which reveal high potential even in times of crisis? Which regions host the innovative enterprises and possess the special technologies which enable them to function as catalysts of regional cluster development? The atlas provides answers to these questions on the basis of analyses of sectors and clusters.

World ReportThe annual World Report constitutes a planning instrument for decision­makers in industry and politics around the world. It comprises a consistent and comparative study of the demographic and economic development of 30 countries. The current issue of World Report analyses the period 1995 – 2008 and contains projections of the short­, medium­ and long­term development of employment, gross value added, productivity and overall demand up to 2035.

Germany Report (Deutschland Report)The Germany Report, which appears every four years, comprises integrated projections for Germany over the following 25 years. It contains grounded assumptions on the global and political framework as well as detailed analyses and forecasts on demographic developments, private households, the macro­economy, industrial sectors, the budgets of regional authorities, the various sectors of social insurance and consumption. The current issue of the report covers the period up to 2035.

11

A-Z of consultancy fields.

• Waste & secondary raw materials

• Labour markets

• Benchmarking & regional monitoring

• Education & employment

• Sector & structure projections

• Clusters & networks

• Energy

• Energy & climate protection policy

• Energy efficiency & renewable energies

• Energy industry

• Family

• Legislative impact assessment

• Health & care

• Health sector & silver economy

• Innovation policy & management

• Investment

• Organization

• Human resources

• Planning & dialogue processes

• Regional economic assessment

• Social security

• Social policy

• Location planning & market analysis

• Governance

• Structural & regional policy

• Scenarios & Trends

• Technologies & markets

• Transport & Logistics

• Water & sewage

• Economic promotion & regional development

• Economic policy

12

BaselPrognos AG Henric Petri­Str. 9 CH­4010 Basel Phone: +41 61 3273­200 Fax: +41 61 3273­300

BerlinPrognos AG Goethestr. 85 D­10623 Berlin Phone: +49 30 52 00 59­200 Fax: +49 30 52 00 59­201

BremenPrognos AG Wilhelm­Herbst­Str. 5 D­28359 Bremen Phone: +49 421 2015­784 Fax: +49 421 2015­789

BrusselsPrognos AG Square de Meeûs 37 B­1000 Brussels Phone: +32 2791­7734 Fax: +32 2791­7900

DusseldorfPrognos AG Schwanenmarkt 21 D­40213 Dusseldorf Phone: +49 211 887­3131 Fax: +49 211 887­3141

MunichPrognos AG Sonnenstr. 14 D­80331 Munich Phone: +49 89 5151 46­170 Fax: +49 89 5151 46­171

StuttgartPrognos AGFriedrichstr. 15 D­70174 Stuttgart Phone: +49 711 4 90 39­745 Fax: +49 711 4 90 39­640

info@prognos.comwww.prognos.com

201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

We provide orientation.

© Prognos AG 2011Layout: atelier w, Basel© Photos: Getty Images, Fotolia, Imagepoint, Mauritius Images, IPN Relay, Masterfile, Fotodesign­Hopermann