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WAVES OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC CHANGE

Society shapes and is shaped by advancing technology. To illuminate the important societal

implications of the NBIC (nano-bio-info-cogno) convergence it is critical to place it within a

broad historical context. History sharpens unique issues that require attention versus ones that

have more obvious trajectories. By viewing history as a series of techno-economic waves

with accompanying socio-political responses, it is possible to begin to understand how NBIC

technologies will have an impact on society.

Since the time of the Industrial Revolution there has been a relatively consistent pattern of

50-year waves of techno-economic change. We are currently nearing the end of the fifth

wave of information technology diffusion, while a sixth wave is emerging with converging

advancements across the NBIC (nano-bio-info-cogno) space, making possible

neurotechnology, the set of tools that can influence the human central nervous system,

especially the brain. Each wave consists of a new group of technologies that make it possibleto solve problems once thought intractable.

The first wave, the water mechanization wave (1770-1830) in England, transformed

productivity by replacing handcrafted production with water-powered "machine-o-facture".

The second wave (1820-1880), powered by a massive iron railroad build-out, accelerated the

distribution of goods and services to distant markets. The electrification wave (1870-1920)

made possible new metal alloys that created the foundation of the modern city. The

development of skyscrapers, electric elevators, light bulbs, telephones, and subways were all

a result of the new electricity infrastructure. At the same time, new techniques for producing

inexpensive steel emerged, revamping the railroad systems, and making large-scaleconstruction projects possible. The fourth wave (1910-1970), ushered in by inexpensive oil,

"motorized" the industrial economy, making the inexpensive transportation of goods and

services available to the masses. The most recent wave, the information technology wave

(1960-2020), has made it possible to collect, analyze, and disseminate data, transforming our

ability to track and respond to an ever-changing world.

Driven by the microprocessor's capacity to compute and communicate data at increasingly

exponential rates, the current wave is the primary generator of economic and social change

today. The nascent neurotechnology wave (2010-2060) is being accelerated by the

development of nanobiochips and brain-imaging technologies that will make biological and

neurological analysis accurate and inexpensive. Nanobiochips that can perform the basic bio-

analysis functions (genomic, proteomic, biosimulation, and microfluidics) at a low cost will

transform neurological analysis in a very similar fashion as the microprocessor did for data.

Nano-imaging techniques will also play a vital role in making the analysis of neuro-

molecular level events possible.

When data from advanced biochips and brain imaging are combined they will accelerate the

development of neurotechnology, the set of tools that can influence the human central

nervous system, especially the brain. Neurotechnology will be used for therapeutic ends and

to enable people to consciously improve emotional stability, enhance cognitive clarity, and

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extend sensory experiences. Techno-economic waves have pervasive effects throughout the

economy and society. New low-cost inputs create new product sectors. They shift

competitive behavior across the economy, as older sectors reinterpret how they create value.

New low-cost inputs become driving sectors in their own right (e.g., canals, coal, electricity,

oil, microchips, biochips). When combined with complementary technologies, each new low-cost input stimulates the development ofnew sectors (e.g., cotton textiles, railroads, electric

products, automobiles, computers, neurofinance). Technological waves, because they

embody a major jump up in productivity, open up an unusually wide range of investment and

profit opportunities, leading to sustained rates of economic growth.

Like any new technology, neurotechnology represents both promises and problems. On the

upside, neurotechnology represents new cures for mental illness, new opportunities for

economic growth and a potential flowering of artistic expression. These benefits are

countered by the potential use of neurotechnology for coercive purposes or its use as

neuroweapons that can selectively erase memories. The diffusion of the neurotechnology willhave an impact on businesses, politics and human culture.

Neurotechnology will also have an impact on education. As more people live longer and

global competition intensifies, people will need to learn new skills throughout their lives.

Regulated neuroceuticals represent the tools workers will use to succeed at continuous

education. Adult "neuroeducation" will emerge as a significant industry, teaching individuals

how to leverage neuroceuticals to acquire knowledge faster. Using cogniceuticals to increase

memory retention, emoticeuticals to decrease stress, and sensoceuticals to add a meaningful

pleasure gradient, neuroeducation will allow people to acquire and retain information faster.

Imagine learning Arabic in one year rather than ten, or calculus in eight weeks.