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Waterfall Construction Basic Theory ULI Waterfall Webinar 20 March 2012 Roger Staiger III, FRICS (202) 640-8912 [email protected]

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Page 1: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

ULI Waterfall Webinar 20 March 2012

Roger Staiger III, FRICS

(202) 640-8912 [email protected]

Page 2: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Waterfall Diagram

Roger Staiger [email protected] 2 of 125

Pari Passu

“Pref” Rate15% good proxy for “Pref”1st Tier

Non Pari Passu split

2nd Tier 2nd Tier rate

N # Tiers

Nth Tier rate

Final Tier

Nth Tier

Example – Final DistributionX % to Promote to Sponsor(1‐X%) distribution Pari Passu

Note: Explained in detail later

Page 3: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Agenda (Session 1) 1) Interest Factors

Basics of Accrual, Compounding, Effective Notional Annual Rate (ENAR)

2) Waterfall Functions (MS Excel) 3) Waterfall (General Concept(s)) 4) Pro Forma Structure 5) Waterfall (Construction) 6) Securitization (Time Permitting) Roger Staiger [email protected] 3 of 125

Page 4: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Agenda (Session 2) Waterfall Construction

MS Excel Construction of Waterfall

Four part construction 1) Project Summary 2) Tranche’ Structures 3) Tranche’ Cash Flows 4) Investor Cash Flows

Deliverable: Final working model & process

Roger Staiger [email protected] 4 of 125

Page 5: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Interest Factors

Understanding of

compounding rates

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 6: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

6 of 125

Compound Interest Interest-on-Interest Components (HP-12c)

Initial Deposit (PV) Interest Rate (i) Time (n) Payment rate (PMT) Future Value (FV)

Happy 30th Birthday!

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 7: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

7 of 125

Future Value - Simple

tt IPVFV

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 8: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Future Value – Simple (example) $100,000,000 @ Libor + 250 (one-year) Where: i = Libor + 250 = 275 (2.75%) PV = $100,000,000 it = ($100,000,000)*i = $2,750,000 FVt = PV + it FVt = $100,000,000 + $2,750,000 FVt = $102,750,000

8 of 125

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 9: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

9 of 125

Future Value - Compounded

tiPVFV 1Interest

Compounds Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 10: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Future Value – Compounded (example)

$100,000,000 @ Libor + 250 (two-year) Where: i = Libor + 250 = 275 PV = $100,000,000 FVt = ($100,000,000)*(1+i)2

FVt = ($100,000,000)*(1+i)*(1+i)

FVt = $102,750,000*(1+i) FVt = $102,750,000*(1+0.0275) FVt = $105,575,625

10 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 11: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

11 of 125

Future Value – Periods (Periodic Compounding)

mn

miPVFV

1

Where:

n: periods, e.g. years

m: intervals within 1 year

i: Annual Interest Rate

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 12: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

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Future Value – Periods (Periodic Compounding) cont’d

mn

miPVFV

1

Compounding Periods:

M=2: Semiannual

M=4: Quarterly

M=365: Daily

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 13: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Future Value – Periods (Periodic Compounding) example1 PV = $100,000,000 (1 year) I = Libor + 250 = 275bps M(Compounding Periods) = semiannual (2)

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044,779,102

0278.1000,000,1000138.01000,000,100

20275.01000,000,1001

2

21

FVFV

miPVFV

mn

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 14: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Future Value – Periods (Periodic Compounding) example2 PV = $100,000,000 (2 years) I = Libor + 250 = 275bps M(Compounding Periods) = monthly (12)

14 of 125

414,647,105

0565.1000,000,1000023.01000,000,100

120275.01000,000,1001

24

122

FVFV

miPVFV

mn

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 15: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Effective Annual Yield (EAY) Annual equivalent yield Assumes annual compounding Converts period compounding to annual

value a.k.a. APR

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1PVFVEAY

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Page 16: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

EAY (example1)

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annual)-(semi 2.75% versus%78.2

0278.01000,000,100044,779,1021

044,779,1020278.1000,000,1000138.01000,000,100

20275.01000,000,1001

2

21

EAYPVFVEAY

FVFV

miPVFV

mn

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 17: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

EAY (example2)

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2.75%) (versus 2.80%or 0280.0

0280.01000,000,100183,795,1021

year) 1(for 183,795,1020280.1000,000,1000023.01000,000,100

120275.01000,000,1001

12

121

EAYPVFVEAY

FVFV

miPVFV

mn

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 18: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

EAY (multiple Periods)

18 of 125

rtPVFVNote

:

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Nominal Annual Rate

Compounding Interval Periods/Yr EAY

5% Annual 1 5.0000%

5% Semi‐annual 2 5.0625%

5% Quarterly 4 5.0945%

5% Monthly 12 5.1162%

5% Daily 365 5.1267%

5% Continuous Infinite 5.1271%

Page 19: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Effective Nominal Annual Rate (ENAR)

Equivalent Effective Annual Yield (EAY) when adjusting for compounding

Where: M = compounding period(s)

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111

m

mENAR

PVFVEAY

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 20: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

ENAR Solved

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mEAYENAR

EAYm

ENARm

ENAREAYm

ENAREAY

mENAR

PVFVEAY

m

m

mm

m

11

11

1111

111

/1

/1

/1

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 21: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

21 of 125

Future Value - Periods

Where:

ENAR: Equivalent nominal annual rate

EAY: Effective annual yield

m: Periods

mEAYENAR m 11 /1

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Page 22: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

22 of 125

Future Value – Example1 EAY = 6.00% M = Monthly compounding

5.841%or 05841.012*00.1004868.1

12*106.1

12*106.01083333.0

121

ENARENARENAR

ENAR

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 23: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Future Value – Example2

23 of 125

6.00%or 06.0

112

05841.01

11

12

EAY

EAY

mENAREAY

m

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 24: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Waterfall Functions

MS Excel Functions

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 25: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

MS Excel Functions End of Month: ‘=EOMONTH() Count: ‘=COUNT() Summation: ‘=SUM() Absolute value: ‘=ABS() Minimum: ‘=MIN() Day: ‘=DAY() XIRR: ‘=XIRR(values,dates) XNPV: ‘=NPV(rate,values,dates)

25 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 26: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

End of Month Function Returns the serial number of the last day of

the month before or after a specified number of months

“=EOMONTH(start_date,months)” Start Date = 1 January 2011 Last day of March 2011

=EOMONTH(1Jan11,2) Note: 1Jan11 must be value not a name

26 of 125

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Page 27: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Count Function Counts the number of cells in a range that

contains numbers “=COUNT(values)”

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A B C D E

1 4 5 Roger 6

Count 4

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Page 28: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Sum Function Adds all the numbers in a range of cells “=SUM(values)”

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A B C D E

1 4 5 Roger 6

Count 4Sum 16

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Page 29: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Absolute Value Function Returns the absolute value of a number, a

number without its sign “=ABS(value)” |-a| = a; |a| = a

29 of 125

5 ‐7Absolute 5 7

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Page 30: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Minimum Function Returns the smallest number in a set of

values. Ignores logical values and text. “=MIN(values)”

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5 ‐7Absolute 5 7

Row1 Minimum ‐7Row2 Minimum 5

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Page 31: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Day Function Returns the day of the month, a number

from 1 to 31 “=DAY(serial_number)”

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2‐Feb‐11 6‐Mar‐11 22‐Apr‐11 30‐May‐11 15‐Jun‐11Day 2 6 22 30 15

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Page 32: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

XIRR versus IRR IRR discounts on a periodic basis XIRR discounted on a daily basis

Allows analyst to input actual dates of cash flows Recognized capital as a vector, not a static input

Capital has both magnitude (Qty) and direction (date)

Allows for accurate return of cash when received at irregular intervals

32 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 33: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

XIRR Requires two inputs: Values and Dates Each Cash Flow is discounted the day it

occurs

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N

idd

ii

rate

PNPV1 365

1

10

where: di = the ith, or last, payment date d1 = the 0th payment date Pi = the ith, or last, payment

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 34: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

XIRR (cont’d) MS Excel solves the equation using linear

interpolation, i.e. iterative technique Third input can be added to assist MS

Excel when appropriate assumptions can be made

Note: XIRR function requires the analysis toolpak to be installed in MS Excel Excel Add-in

34 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 35: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

XIRR Example

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1‐Jan‐11 1‐Jul‐11 1‐Jul‐12 1‐Jul‐13 1‐Jul‐14(35,000)      12,000      5,000        20,000      22,000     

IRR 20.85%XIRR 26.46%Delta 5.61%

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 36: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

MS Excel Add-Ins (Data Analysis & Solver)

36 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 37: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Steps for MS Excel Add-ins

5 minute break for those that have it

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Page 38: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 1 – Office Button

38 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 39: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 2 – Excel Options (Select)

39 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 40: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 3 – Excel Options

40 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 41: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 4 – Add-Ins

41 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 42: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 5 – Add-Ins

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Page 43: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 6 – Select Solver Add-in & Analysis ToolPak

43 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 44: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 7 – Hit “OK” Select (Hit) “OK” in the lower right portion

of your screen

44 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 45: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 8 – Data (once back in MS Excel)

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Page 46: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Step 9 – Data Analysis & Solver

46 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Verify (Data Analysis & Solver)

Under data on the ribbon bar verify that ‘Data Analysis’ and ‘Solver’ are there

If not there and you are using a PC, please email me, [email protected], after the program for assistance

If not there and you are using an Apple, please contact your administrator. Unfortunately I do not know this process (but it should be very similar)

47 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 48: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Waterfall

Let the fun begin…

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Page 49: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Niagara (U.S. Side) (Do not end up on the rocks!)

49 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 50: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Waterfall Method of distributing profits among

partners within a transaction Allows for profits to NOT follow an even

distribution Profits NOT distributed Pari Passu Pari Passu: division entirely by ownership %,

80% capital, 80% of ALL cash flows distributed, 80% of risk

50 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

Page 51: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Simple Waterfall: Bank Model Creditor is paid first Owner is paid second

Payment by value NOT yield Waterfalls typically separate

cash flows to owners (equity)

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DEBT

Equity

Net Operating Income (NOI)

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Page 52: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Syndication versus Securitization Syndication separates cash flows

according to ownership % 20% ownership, 20% of risk

Securitization separates cash flows according to risk tranches Transformation of a portfolio of financial obligations

into liquid form attractive to a myriad of investors

52 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Syndication versus Securitization (graphic)

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Syndication Securitization

Capital Stack

Ownership Division

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54 of 125

Structure Example (Generic)

Bond1 Bond2 Bond3

Bondn (y = 8.5%)

TRUST

Tranche 4 (Residual) 4th 5% Loss; y=35%

Tranche 3 3rd 10% Loss; y=15%

Tranche 2 2nd 10% Loss; y=7.5%

Tranche 1 1st Senior; y=6%

Wat

erfa

ll

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Syndication/Structured Issue: Too large for single

lender Result: Bifurcate into two

tranches Senior “A” Piece Junior “B” Piece

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Single Bond $100.0m 10 years

Interest only 6% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 6.00%

Page 56: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Syndication/Structured

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Single Bond $100.0m 10 years

Interest only 6% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 6.00%

Tranche “A” $50.0m 10 years

Interest only 4% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 4.00%

Tranche “B” $50.0m 10 years

Interest only 8% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 8.00%

Page 57: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Syndication/Structured (cont’d) Tranche “A” Senior Piece Reduced Coupon Tranche “B” Junior Piece Higher Coupon

Compensates for higher risk Prepayment Recovery Rate

Roger Staiger [email protected] 57 of 125

Tranche “A” $50.0m 10 years

Interest only 4% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 4.00%

Tranche “B” $50.0m 10 years

Interest only 8% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 8.00%

Page 58: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Syndication/Structured (cont’d)

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Tranche “A” $50.0m 10 years

Interest only 4% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 4.00%

Tranche “B” $50.0m 10 years

Interest only 8% Coupon WAM = 10

WAC = 8.00%

Prepayment 1. Refinance 2. Foreclosure 3. Sale Recovery

Loss %

Risk (σ)

Order of Payments: 1. Interest Tranche A 2. Interest Tranche B

3. Principal Tranche A 4. Principal Tranche B

- Residual

Page 59: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Single Bond ($100.0m) (No Prepay/Default/100% Recovery)

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Principal 100,000,000     WAM 10Interest 6% WAC 6%Term 10Prepay Date 10Recovery 100%

Period 0 1 2 3 → 9 10BoP 100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000 → 100,000,000 100,000,000Interest 6,000,000      6,000,000      6,000,000      → 6,000,000      6,000,000     Principal ‐                  ‐                  ‐                   → ‐                  100,000,000EoP 100,000,000     100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000 → 100,000,000 ‐                 

Cash Flow (100,000,000)    6,000,000      6,000,000      6,000,000      → 6,000,000      106,000,000IRR 6.00%

Page 60: Waterfall Construction Basic Theory - Abilauli.peachnewmedia.com/EdutechResources/resources//bytopicid/33596/Waterfall_Interest...Mar 20, 2012  · Waterfall Construction Basic Theory

Tranche A & B (No Prepay/Default/100% Recovery)

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Transformation 1 2 3 → 9 10Investor A ‐ Senior 4.00%BoP 50,000,000   50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 50,000,000Interest 2,000,000    2,000,000   2,000,000   → 2,000,000   2,000,000  Principal ‐                 ‐                ‐                → ‐                50,000,000EoP 50,000,000     50,000,000   50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 ‐               

Invstor A ‐ Cash Flow(50,000,000)   2,000,000    2,000,000   2,000,000   → 2,000,000   52,000,000

IRR 4.00%

Investor B ‐ Junior 8.00%BoP 50,000,000   50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 50,000,000Interest 4,000,000    4,000,000   4,000,000   → 4,000,000   4,000,000  Principal ‐                 ‐                ‐                → ‐                50,000,000EoP 50,000,000     50,000,000   50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 ‐               

Invstor A ‐ Cash Flow(50,000,000)   4,000,000    4,000,000   4,000,000   → 4,000,000   54,000,000

IRR 8.00%

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Single Bond ($100.0m) (2-year prepay/90% Recovery)

Roger Staiger [email protected] 61 of 125

Principal 100,000,000     WAM 10Interest 6% WAC 6%Term 10Prepay Dat 8Recovery 90%

Period 0 1 2 3 → 7 8BoP 100,000,000   100,000,000 100,000,000 → 100,000,000 100,000,000Interest 6,000,000       6,000,000      6,000,000      → 6,000,000      6,000,000     Principal ‐                   ‐                  ‐                  → ‐                  90,000,000  EoP 100,000,000     100,000,000   100,000,000 100,000,000 → 100,000,000 10,000,000  

Cash Flow (100,000,000)    6,000,000       6,000,000      6,000,000      → 6,000,000      96,000,000  IRR 4.95%

105bp loss

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Tranche A & B (2-year prepay/90% Recovery)

Roger Staiger [email protected] 62 of 125

Transformation 1 2 3 → 7 8Investor A ‐ Senior 4.00%BoP 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 50,000,000Interest 2,000,000   2,000,000   2,000,000   → 2,000,000   2,000,000  Principal ‐                ‐                ‐                → ‐                50,000,000EoP 50,000,000     50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 ‐               

Invstor A ‐ Cash Flow(50,000,000)   2,000,000   2,000,000   2,000,000   → 2,000,000   52,000,000

IRR 4.00%

Investor B ‐ Junior 8.00%BoP 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 50,000,000Interest 4,000,000   4,000,000   4,000,000   → 4,000,000   4,000,000  Principal ‐                ‐                ‐                → ‐                40,000,000EoP 50,000,000     50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 → 50,000,000 10,000,000

Invstor A ‐ Cash Flow(50,000,000)   4,000,000   4,000,000   4,000,000   → 4,000,000   44,000,000

IRR 5.98%

No Loss

202bp Loss

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Tranche B Sensitivity

Roger Staiger [email protected] 63 of 125

Tranche B 1 2 3 4 5100.0% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00%90.0% 6.28% 5.98% 5.59% 5.06% 4.33%80.0% 4.26% 3.60% 2.74% 1.59% 0.00%70.0% 1.80% 0.68% ‐0.77% ‐2.70% ‐5.36%60.0% ‐1.40% ‐3.16% ‐5.43% ‐8.43% ‐12.55%50.0% ‐6.11% ‐8.98% ‐12.70% ‐17.65% ‐24.40%

Prepayment years

Recovery %

Tranche A suffers no losses (exposed to reinvestment rate risk)

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Waterfall Considerations Separation of cash flows according to

owners’ agreement Separation of cash flows by yield, NOT by

order Order: Bank vanilla example

“Pref” Rate: Preference Rate Generally provided to Investor Acts as a coupon rate, e.g. Preferred Equity

64 of 125

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Waterfall Diagram

65 of 125

Pari Passu

“Pref” Rate15% good proxy for “Pref”1st Tier

Non Pari Passu split

2nd Tier 2nd Tier rate

N # Tiers

Nth Tier rate

Final Tier

Nth Tier

Example – Final DistributionX % to Promote to Sponsor(1‐X%) distribution Pari Passu

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Waterfall Split Pref Rate: Up to 15% IRR

10% Sponsor 90% Investor

15% - 20% IRR Split 20% Sponsor 90% Investor

Over 20% 40% Promote (Sponsor) 60% Split (10% Sponsor; 90% Investor)

66 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Waterfall Split Graphic

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15% IRR

20% IRR

20% + IRR

Sponsor10%

Sponsor20%

PromoteSponsor

40%

Investor90%

Investor80%

Investor90%

Sponsor10%

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Pro Forma Structure

Incorporating the Waterfall

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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69 of 49

Pro Forma Structure/Logic Flow

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Summary Page Pro Forma Page

(s2)

Amortization Page (s3) Inputs Section

(s1)

Analysis (s4)

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70 of 49

Pro Forma Structure/Logic Flow (Waterfall Addition)

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Summary Page

Pro Forma Page (s2)

Amortization Page (s3)

Inputs Section (s1)

Analysis (Project)

(s4)

Waterfall Page (Investor)

(s5)

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Waterfall (Step 1) Quantify Equity Contributions Modeled in Sources/Uses

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Sources 549,000  Operations Units I/P Finance I/P

Equity 99,000  Unit 1 ‐ One Bedroom per mont 1,500  Tranche 1

Investor 1 80,000  Unit 2 ‐ Two Bedroom per mont 2,000  Principal 400,000 

Investor 2 19,000  Unit 3 ‐ Two Bedroom per mont 2,000  Term (years) 20

Debt 450,000  Unit 4 ‐ Two Bedroom per mont 2,000  Interest Rate 8%

Tranche 1 400,000  Interest Only

Tranche 2 50,000  Vacancy 1 5.00% Origination Fee 1%

Vacancy 2 5.00%

Uses 549,000  Vacancy 3 5.00% Tranche 2

Purchase Price 350,000  Vacancy 4 5.00% Principal 50,000 

Renovation 165,000  Term (years) 20

Legal 3,500  Rental Escl 2% Interest Rate 15%

Bank 2,000  Interest Only

Personal 1,500  Management per Net Rev 5% Origination Fee 1%

IDC 24,700  Repairs per Net Rev 5%

Tax Escrow 1,300  Janitor per year 2600 Valuation I/P

Finance Cost 4,500  Heat per year 2130 Cap Rate 10.9%

Electricity per year 1000 Sales Expense 6%

Surplus/(Deficit) ‐ Water per year 1200 Discount Rate 10%

Property Tax per year 7800

Insurance per year 2600 Sales Period Year 10 

Expense Escl 2%

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Waterfall (Step 2) Quantify the project cash flows for

distribution, i.e. cash distributions Modeled on pro forma page Cash flows must not be accounting values,

i.e. no earnings, free cash flows distributed to investors AFTER debt service

72 of 125 Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Waterfall (Step 2) (cont’d) (Note: not yet…)

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Periods 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Revenue Year 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Unit1 Rent 1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500  1,500 

Unit2 Rent 2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000 

Unit3 Rent 2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000 

Unit4 Rent 2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000  2,000 

Total Rent 7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500  7,500 

Vacancy 1 75  75  75  75  75  75  75  75  75  75  75  75 

Vacancy 2 100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100 

Vacancy 3 100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100 

Vanancy 4 100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100  100 

Total Vacancy 375  375  375  375  375  375  375  375  375  375  375  375 

Total Revenue 7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125  7,125 

Expenses

Management 356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356 

Repairs 356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356  356 

Janitor 217  217  217  218  218  218  219  219  220  220  220  221 

Heat 178  178  178  178  179  179  179  180  180  180  180  181 

Electricity 83  83  84  84  84  84  84  84  84  85  85  85 

Water 100  100  100  101  101  101  101  101  101  102  102  102 

Property Tax 650  651  652  653  654  655  657  658  659  660  661  662 

Insurance 217  217  217  218  218  218  219  219  220  220  220  221 

Total Expenses 2,157  2,159  2,161  2,164  2,166  2,169  2,171  2,174  2,176  2,178  2,181  2,183 

Net Operating Income 4,968  4,966  4,964  4,961  4,959  4,956  4,954  4,951  4,949  4,947  4,944  4,942 

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Waterfall (Step 2) (cont’d) (…yet)

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Debt

Tranch 1 3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346  3,346 

Tranch 2 658  658  658  658  658  658  658  658  658  658  658  658 

Tranche 1 4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004  4,004 

Sales Proceeds

Sales Price ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Sales Expense ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Principal Repay ‐Tranche 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Principal Repay ‐Tranche 2 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Net Sales Proceeds ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Reversion FCF ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Operating FCF 964  962  959  957  955  952  950  947  945  942  940  937 

Total FCF (99,000) 964  962  959  957  955  952  950  947  945  942  940  937 

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Note: No bifurcation (Operations/Reversion)

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Waterfall (Step 3) Quantify project characteristics Is project viable as a whole?

Modigliani and Miller

Total Profit Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Multiple (Profit/Invested Capital)

Roger Staiger [email protected] 75 of 125

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Waterfall (Step 3) (Project Valuation)

Roger Staiger [email protected] 76 of 125

Valuation:Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RevenueRental 90,000  91,800  93,636  95,509  97,419  99,367  101,355  103,382 105,449  107,558 Vacancy 4,500  4,590  4,682  4,775  4,871  4,968  5,068  5,169  5,272  5,378 

Total Revenue 85,500  87,210  88,954  90,733  92,548  94,399  96,287  98,213  100,177  102,180 

ExpenseManagement 4,275  4,361  4,448  4,537  4,627  4,720  4,814  4,911  5,009  5,109 Repairs 4,275  4,361  4,448  4,537  4,627  4,720  4,814  4,911  5,009  5,109 Janitor 2,624  2,677  2,731  2,786  2,842  2,900  2,958  3,018  3,079  3,141 Heat 2,150  2,193  2,237  2,282  2,329  2,376  2,423  2,472  2,522  2,573 Electricity 1,009  1,030  1,050  1,072  1,093  1,115  1,138  1,161  1,184  1,208 Water 1,211  1,236  1,260  1,286  1,312  1,338  1,365  1,393  1,421  1,450 Property Tax 7,872  8,031  8,193  8,358  8,527  8,699  8,875  9,054  9,237  9,423 Insurance 2,624  2,677  2,731  2,786  2,842  2,900  2,958  3,018  3,079  3,141 

Total Expenses 26,040  26,564  27,098  27,644  28,200  28,767  29,346  29,937  30,539  31,154  

Net Operating Income 59,460  60,646  61,856  63,090  64,348  65,631  66,941  68,276  69,638  71,026  

DebtTranche  1 40,149  40,149  40,149  40,149  40,149  40,149  40,149  40,149  40,149  40,149  Tranche  2 7,901  7,901  7,901  7,901  7,901  7,901  7,901  7,901  7,901  7,901 

Total Debt 48,050  48,050  48,050  48,050  48,050  48,050  48,050  48,050  48,050  48,050  

Net Sales Proceeds ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 308,167 

Reversion FCF ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 308,167 Operating FCF 11,410  12,596  13,806  15,040  16,298  17,582  18,891  20,226  21,588  22,977  

Total FCF (99,000) 11,410  12,596  13,806  15,040  16,298  17,582  18,891  20,226  21,588  331,144 

DSCR 1.24 1.26   1.29  1.31  1.34 1.37  1.39   1.42 1.45  1.48Minimum  1.24

Cash‐on‐Cash 11.53% 12.72% 13.95% 15.19% 16.46% 17.76% 19.08% 20.43% 21.81% 23.21%Minimum  11.53%

PV Reversion 118,812  54.64%PV Operating 98,616   45.36%

Total 217,428 CF0 99,000  NPV 118,428 IRR 22.42%

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Waterfall (Step 4) (Structure)

Construct Waterfall addition for pro forma Four Sections:

Project Summary Tranche Structures (Accruals) Tranche Cash Flows Investor Cash Flows

Roger Staiger [email protected] 77 of 125

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Waterfall (Step 4) (Structure)

Roger Staiger [email protected] 78 of 125

Waterfall Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12(Units) Total 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2012 1/31/2013 1/31/2014 1/31/2015 1/31/2016 1/31/2017 1/31/2018 1/31/2019 1/31/2020 1/31/2021

Project Cash FlowContributions (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Sponsor 10% (20.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 90% (180.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 100% (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Project

SummaryCash Proceeds for Distribution 550.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0

Project Cash Flow 350.0 (200.0) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0Profit $350.0IRR 22.43%Multiple 2.75x

STRUCTURETier 1 0.0383% Daily RateBoP Balance 0.0 (200.0) (180.0) (157.0) (130.6) (100.2) (65.2) (25.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Contributions (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Accrual 15.00% (128.8) 0.0 (30.0) (27.0) (23.6) (19.6) (15.0) (9.8) (3.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Paydown 328.8 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EoP Balance (200.0) (180.0) (157.0) (130.6) (100.2) (65.2) (25.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash left for distribution 221.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0IRR Check 15.00% 128.8 (200.0) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tranche

StructuresTier 2 0.0500% Daily Rate (Accruals)Starting Balance 0.0 (200.0) (190.0) (178.0) (163.7) (146.4) (125.7) (100.9) (71.1) (35.3) 0.0 0.0Equity Contributions (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Accrual 20.00% 0.0 (40.0) (38.0) (35.7) (32.7) (29.3) (25.1) (20.2) (14.2) (7.1) 0.0 0.0Paydown 442.4 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0Balance (200.0) (190.0) (178.0) (163.7) (146.4) (125.7) (100.9) (71.1) (35.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash left for distribution 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 100.0 0.0IRR Check 20.00% 242.4 (200.0) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0

Cash Flows to each tranche:I. Pari Passu to an IRR of 15.00% 328.8 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sponsor 10.00% 32.9 0.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 90.00% 295.9 0.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

II. Splits up to an IRR of 20.00% 113.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0Sponsor 20.00% 22.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 10.0 8.5 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 80.00% 90.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 40.0 33.9 0.0 0.0 Tranche

CashCash left for Distribution 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 100.0 0.0 Flows

III. Sponsor Promote 40.00% 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 40.0 0.0

Cash to Equity 60.00% 64.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 60.0 0.0Sponsor 10.00% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.0 0.0Equity Partner 90.00% 58.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 54.0 0.0

INVESTOR CASH FLOWSSPONSOR

Equity Investment (20.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Proceeds 105.1 0.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 7.1 10.0 12.0 46.0 0.0CF 85.1 (20.0) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 7.1 10.0 12.0 46.0 0.0Profit $85.1% of Total Profit 24.3%IRR 30.03%Multiple 5.25x

InvestorEQUITY PARTNER Cash

Equity Investment (180.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FlowsProceeds 444.9 0.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 42.9 40.0 38.0 54.0 0.0CF 264.9 (180.0) 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 42.9 40.0 38.0 54.0 0.0Profit $264.9% of Total Profit 75.7%IRR 21.13%Multiple 2.47x

Check TRUE

A. Project Summary

B. Tranche Structures

C. Tranche Cash Flows

D. Investor Cash Flows

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Waterfall (Step 4) (Project Summary)

Roger Staiger [email protected] 79 of 125

Waterfall Period 1 2 8 9 10 11 12(Units) Total 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2017 1/31/2018 1/31/2019 1/31/2020 1/31/2021

Project Cash FlowContributions (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Sponsor 10% (20.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 90% (180.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 100% (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Project

SummaryCash Proceeds for Distribution 550.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0

Project Cash Flow 350.0 (200.0) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0Profit $350.0IRR 22.43%Multiple 2.75x

Note: Years 3 – 8 hidden

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Waterfall (Step 4) (Tranche Structures (Accruals))

Roger Staiger [email protected] 80 of 125

STRUCTURETier 1 0.0383% Daily RateBoP Balance 0.0 (200.0) (25.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Contributions (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Accrual 15.00% (128.8) 0.0 (30.0) (3.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Paydown 328.8 0.0 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EoP Balance (200.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash left for distribution 221.2 0.0 0.0 21.2 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0IRR Check 15.00% 128.8 (200.0) 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tranche

StructuresTier 2 0.0500% Daily Rate (Accruals)Starting Balance 0.0 (200.0) (100.9) (71.1) (35.3) 0.0 0.0Equity Contributions (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Accrual 20.00% 0.0 (40.0) (20.2) (14.2) (7.1) 0.0 0.0Paydown 442.4 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0Balance (200.0) (190.0) (71.1) (35.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash left for distribution 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 100.0 0.0IRR Check 20.00% 242.4 (200.0) 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0

Note: Years 3 – 8 hidden

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Waterfall (Step 4) (Tranche Cash Flows)

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Cash Flows to each tranche:I. Pari Passu to an IRR of 15.00% 328.8 0.0 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sponsor 10.00% 32.9 0.0 5.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 90.00% 295.9 0.0 45.0 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

II. Splits up to an IRR of 20.00% 113.6 0.0 0.0 21.2 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0Sponsor 20.00% 22.7 0.0 0.0 4.2 10.0 8.5 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 80.00% 90.9 0.0 0.0 17.0 40.0 33.9 0.0 0.0 Tranche

CashCash left for Distribution 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 100.0 0.0 Flows

III. Sponsor Promote 40.00% 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 40.0 0.0

Cash to Equity 60.00% 64.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 60.0 0.0Sponsor 10.00% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.0 0.0Equity Partner 90.00% 58.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 54.0 0.0

Note: Years 3 – 8 hidden

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Waterfall (Step 4) (Investor Cash Flows)

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INVESTOR CASH FLOWSSPONSOR

Equity Investment (20.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Proceeds 105.1 0.0 5.0 7.1 10.0 12.0 46.0 0.0CF 85.1 (20.0) 5.0 7.1 10.0 12.0 46.0 0.0Profit $85.1% of Total Profit 24.3%IRR 30.03%Multiple 5.25x

InvestorEQUITY PARTNER Cash

Equity Investment (180.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FlowsProceeds 444.9 0.0 45.0 42.9 40.0 38.0 54.0 0.0CF 264.9 (180.0) 45.0 42.9 40.0 38.0 54.0 0.0Profit $264.9% of Total Profit 75.7%IRR 21.13%Multiple 2.47x

Check TRUE

Note: Years 3 – 8 hidden

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Waterfall

Construction

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Project Summary (Part a)

Models Contributions from Investor(s) and Sponsor separately (Can be spread or Point-in-Time)

Assigns dates with specific cash flows Models Cash Distribution (after debt service) Quantify Project performance (check with pro forma) Roger Staiger [email protected] 84 of 125

Waterfall Period 1 2 8 9 10 11 12(Units) Total 1/31/2010 1/31/2011 1/31/2017 1/31/2018 1/31/2019 1/31/2020 1/31/2021

Project Cash FlowContributions (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Sponsor 10% (20.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 90% (180.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total 100% (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Project

SummaryCash Proceeds for Distribution 550.0 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0

Project Cash Flow 350.0 (200.0) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0Profit $350.0IRR 22.43%Multiple 2.75x

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Tranche Structures (Accruals) (Part b)

Calculate Daily rate (note: daily, i.e. 365/year) from target

Calculate Accrual amount for Tranche Calculate distribution from accrual Check the IRR (verify)

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STRUCTURETier 1 0.0383% Daily RateBoP Balance 0.0 (200.0) (25.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Contributions (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Accrual 15.00% (128.8) 0.0 (30.0) (3.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Paydown 328.8 0.0 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EoP Balance (200.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash left for distribution 221.2 0.0 0.0 21.2 50.0 50.0 100.0 0.0IRR Check 15.00% 128.8 (200.0) 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tranche

StructuresTier 2 0.0500% Daily Rate (Accruals)Starting Balance 0.0 (200.0) (100.9) (71.1) (35.3) 0.0 0.0Equity Contributions (200.0) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Accrual 20.00% 0.0 (40.0) (20.2) (14.2) (7.1) 0.0 0.0Paydown 442.4 0.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0Balance (200.0) (190.0) (71.1) (35.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0Cash left for distribution 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 100.0 0.0IRR Check 20.00% 242.4 (200.0) 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0

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Tranche Structures (Accruals) (Part b) (Hints)

Daily Rate Accrual

Roger Staiger [email protected] 86 of 125

00038298.010.151

1Pref_Rate1RateDaily 365

1

3651

DR

30Accrual20010.000382981Accrual

1DR1Accrual365

BoPDays

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Tranche Cash Flows (Part c)

Separate tranches by split percentages (X2) Calculate remaining split for promote Calculate Cash to Equity after promote

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Cash Flows to each tranche:I. Pari Passu to an IRR of 15.00% 328.8 0.0 50.0 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sponsor 10.00% 32.9 0.0 5.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 90.00% 295.9 0.0 45.0 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

II. Splits up to an IRR of 20.00% 113.6 0.0 0.0 21.2 50.0 42.4 0.0 0.0Sponsor 20.00% 22.7 0.0 0.0 4.2 10.0 8.5 0.0 0.0Equity Partner 80.00% 90.9 0.0 0.0 17.0 40.0 33.9 0.0 0.0 Tranche

CashCash left for Distribution 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 100.0 0.0 Flows

III. Sponsor Promote 40.00% 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 40.0 0.0

Cash to Equity 60.00% 64.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 60.0 0.0Sponsor 10.00% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.0 0.0Equity Partner 90.00% 58.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 54.0 0.0

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Investor Cash Flows (Part d)

Create Final Cash Flows for Sponsor and Investor Review cash flow distribution, i.e. IRRs Built in Self-Test

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INVESTOR CASH FLOWSSPONSOR

Equity Investment (20.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Proceeds 105.1 0.0 5.0 7.1 10.0 12.0 46.0 0.0CF 85.1 (20.0) 5.0 7.1 10.0 12.0 46.0 0.0Profit $85.1% of Total Profit 24.3%IRR 30.03%Multiple 5.25x

InvestorEQUITY PARTNER Cash

Equity Investment (180.0) (180.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FlowsProceeds 444.9 0.0 45.0 42.9 40.0 38.0 54.0 0.0CF 264.9 (180.0) 45.0 42.9 40.0 38.0 54.0 0.0Profit $264.9% of Total Profit 75.7%IRR 21.13%Multiple 2.47x

Check TRUE

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Securitization (Detail)

Time Permitting

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Securitization Transformation of a portfolio of financial

obligations into liquid form attractive to a myriad of investors

‘Value’ of obligations depends on ability/willingness of obligator to pay, i.e. Risk

Financial Obligation Portfolios (Examples): Mortgages (Commercial & Residential) Automotive Loans Credit Card Loans

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Structuring Transforming financial obligations into palatable

financial assets by means of cash flow segmentation & risk

Types of Instruments 1) Direct obligations of corporates and sovereigns 2) Derivatives, e.g. Swaps & Futures 3) *Securitized & Structured Financial Assets

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Direct Obligations Obligation created by issues for investors Equities Treasuries Corporate Debt Convertibles

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Derivatives An asset whose value depends upon an

underlying asset Swaps & Futures (see other lectures)

Represent zero sum game (In Theory Only)

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Securitization Transforms raw assets into tradeable units Allows bifurcation of Origination & Investment

Functions Structuring rearranges cash flows and risk

Structuring financial instruments similar to transforming physical Real Estate assets

“Working the Asset”

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Major Asset Classes 1) MBS

Residential Commercial

2) Credit Cards 3) Automobile Loans 4) Home Equity Line of

Credit (HELOCs)

5) Manufactured Housing

6) Student Loans 7) Equipment Leases

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Critical Concepts to Consider 1) Collateral 2) Credit Enhancement 3) Standardization 4) Liquidity

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Collateral Raw commitments that support

transaction (Mortgage, i.e. home) Cash Flow & Credit Characteristics

determine performance + drive structuring

Must understand collateral of specific asset + portfolio consideration (Critical)

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Credit Enhancement Process of protecting payment stream to

investors Result from: External guarantee Interesting structuring

Subordination Waterfall Structure Order of payments

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Standardization Process of taking dissimilar loan types

and terms & transforming within a portfolio

Portfolio versus Asset Analysis

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Asset 1 Asset 2 Asset 3 Asset 4 Asset 5 Asset 6 Asset 7 Asset 8

Asset 9…

Each Asset has individual

characteristics, i.e. exposed to unsystematic

risk

Portfolio of Assets 1 – 9

Standard: Coupon Terms

Diversified, standardized Portfolio, i.e. exposed to

systematic risk only (allegedly)

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Liquidity Ability to transfer assets among investors Increasing liquidity goal to securitization Measures:

Bid-Ask Spread Amount of time to sell a position

@ Fair Value, i.e. not deeply discounted

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Tax, Accounting, Legal Issues 1) Tax

Will there be tax @ Trust Level 2) Accounting

Securitization treated as ‘Sale’ or ‘Financing’? 3) Legal

Does Trust or legal entity have sufficient title to assets? Issuing firm protected from bankruptcy &/or disruptions

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Mortgage-Backed Security Process

John & Jane America want a home J&J meet mortgage broker Mortgage Broker and Mortgage

Banker meet to originate loan M. Banker sells loan to Dealer Dealer structures loan and sells Norway purchases loan structure

Education High School High School

College

Graduate School Unknown Unknown

No Recourse (Paid Immediately)

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Realtor (Paid Immediately) = High School

Default Losers = John&Jane & Norway

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Dealer/Risk Sharing Paid up-front (immediate) Structures product with assistance

Lawyers, Accountants, Rating Agencies

Sells product into Capital Markets Risk born by John/Jane & Capital Markets

(Norway) NO risk by Mortgage Broker, Mortgage Banker,

and Dealer (or Realtor!)

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Loan Servicer Receives payments and distributes to

investors according to agreement Handles paperwork for loan Responsible for collections in event of

default Low-risk business

Paper administrators

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Default Case Guarantor called to cover any losses Servicer “Special Servicer” passes payments

on to appropriate investors Servicer “Special Servicer”, guarantor and

trustee compensated immediately for services No risk

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Allocation of $$$ (T = 0) Mortgage Broker Mortgage Banker

Dealer

Borrower Receives Investor Pays

97 98 99

100

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Realtor paid at T = 0

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Allocation of Interest Payments

Investor Receives

Guarantor Servicer

Spread to Investor Option Cost to Investor

Duration Cost to Investor

Funding Cost to Investor Borrower

Pays

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Securities – Investment Characteristics

1) Principal repayment timing 2) Amount & form of interest payment 3) Credit quality of instrument (Risk)

t

Risk of Receiving

Interest Pay (Form and Quantity)

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Price of Asset

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Risk Measures 1) Spread

Difference between the yield on the investment and yield on base instrument (Compensates for Risk)

2) Rating (Provide “independent” risk assessment) S&P, Moodys, Fitch

3) Duration/Convexity (See Whitepaper) Duration: Measure of sensitivity of price to interest

rates (Rate of change (1st Derivative)) Convexity: Change in Duration as interest rates

change (Rate of change of change (2nd Derivative)) Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Securitization - Classification Sale versus Financing Issues:

Financial Regulatory Tax Accounting Strategic

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Financial Advantages Asset Sale (Off-Balance Sheet)

Risks 100% transferred to buyer (Seller has Reps/Warrants)

Cost lower than securitization

Financing (Securitization) Several classes created & sold (Off-Balance Sheet)

Issuer retains residual class Residual considered “equity”

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Financial Transaction (versus sale) Financing expenses Sale Expenses 1. Coupons Paid Corporate: 2. U/W fees 1. Debt 3. Administration Costs 2. Equity

Which is cheaper/beneficial? How each changes risk of institution?

- How changes makeup of corporate BS Securitization

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Securitization & Capital Structure Firms generally limited to amount of debt

on Balance Sheet (Capital Structure) Structure Off-Balance Sheet activities in Special

Purposes Entities (SPEs) Remember Repo 105 (classic example)

Securitization may permit greater debt issuance Free equity for more transactions

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Residual Interest “Equity” like Held by issuer Illiquid & Complex instrument Bear prepayment & credit risk Generally no risk beyond tranche (residual)

Risk is loss of interest only

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Regulatory - Securitization Rated security have lower capital

requirements Rated securities may allow firms to lower

capital requirements Lower capital requirements increase leverage Double edged sword

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Tax Securitization Issues general prefer financing ‘tax’

treatment Asset sale requires immediate recognition

of gain/loss on transaction Asset types:

1) Trading 2) Available-for-Sale

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Asset Types 1) Trading

Must hold @ market value and/or fair value 2) Available-for-Sale

Held on book @ lower of: Cost Market value (hence Bear Stearns bailout)

3) Loans in Portfolio Considered “Held-to-Maturity’

Held at original cost

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Accounting - Securitization Firms prefer to record securitization as

“sale” (Reduces capital requirements) Strengthens Balance Sheet - generally

Can lead to income instability How flow through accounting

statements?: Depends on how residual classified

Sale versus Trading

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Strategic - Securitization Increase origination of loan product Adjust portfolio of assets

Securitize to maintain control of assets Lost leader but strategic play Increase assets under control while

reducing capital requirements

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Balance Sheet – Pre-Securitization

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Assets ($m) Ratios Calc ValueCash 25,000                         D/E 340/50 6.80        Loans 300,000                      Current 25/45 0.56        Investments 60,000                        PP&E 50,000                         Assets Delta

Total Assets 435,000                      300,000  → 30,000    270,000 

Liabilities ($m) Liability Reduction 280,000 Short‐Term 45,000                         45,000    → 30,000    15,000   Long‐Term 340,000                      340,000  → 75,000    265,000 

Total Liabilities 385,000                     Equity (Gain on Sale)

Equity ($m) 50,000                         50,000    → 60,000    10,000   

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Balance Sheet – Post-Securitization

Roger Staiger [email protected]

Assets ($m) Ratios Calc ValueCash 25,000                        D/E 75/60 1.25Residuals 30,000                        Current 25/30 0.83Investments 60,000                       PP&E 50,000                        Previous Values:

Total Assets 165,000                     Ratios Calc ValueD/E 340/50 6.80

Liabilities ($m) Current 25/45 0.56Short‐Term 30,000                       Long‐Term 75,000                       

Total Liabilities 105,000                    

Equity ($m) 60,000                       

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Balance Sheet – Cost of Capital Securitization can decrease cost of

capital (reduced corporate “risk”) If securitization coupon < Corporate

WACC Cost of Capital reduced

* Firms value maximized @ point of WACC minimization

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Securitization Factors - Balancing

Financial

Regulatory Tax

Accounting

Strategic All five must

balance

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Structuring Entity Generally structured as Trust

Trust not subject to taxation Trust issues securities Established legal separation between issuer &

pool of assets Bankruptcy – Remote of Trust

Roger Staiger [email protected]

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Structure Example (Generic)

Bond1 Bond2 Bond3

Bondn (y = 8.5%)

TRUST

Tranche 4 (Residual) 4th 5% Loss; y=35%

Tranche 3 3rd 10% Loss; y=15%

Tranche 2 2nd 10% Loss; y=7.5%

Tranche 1 1st Senior; y=6%

Wat

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Roger Staiger [email protected]