water where is your future headed?
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Water Where is your future headed?. Prof. Mike Young Research Chair, Water Economics and Management The University of Adelaide. - 1%. - 3%. Changes in rain and water supply. Sydney. - 25%. - 75%. If it gets drier. Less rain means - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Prof. Mike Young
Research Chair, Water Economics and ManagementThe University of Adelaide
WaterWhere is your future headed?
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Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
14% less 20% less
Rainfall for Jarrahdale
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
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11
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14
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Str
ea
mfl
ow
(G
L)
N o te s : S tre a m flo w is fro m Ma y o f la b e lle d ye a r to th e fo l lo w in g Ap ri l
48% less
66% less
S tre a m in flo w fo r P e rth d a m s (P rio r to S tirlin g D a m )
PERTH
Changes in rain and water supply
- 1%
- 3%
3
Warragamba + 3 Nepean Dams (Inflows & annual rainfall)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Inflow
GL
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Rainf
all (m
m)
892 GL pa
2,027 GL pa
572 GL pa
780 mm pa 907 mm pa 681 mm pa
Sydney
- 25%
- 75%
4
If it gets drier
Less rain
means
much less run-off
much less water
5
Melbourne
6
Total River Murray System Inflows (including Darling River)
DRY WET
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Total River Murray System Inflows (including Darling River)with post 1938 sequence imposed from 2002
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1892 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2022
Ann
ual In
flow
<= 25
000 G
L (G
L)
Re-live from 1938
2014
8
9
Murray System Inflows Excluding Menindee & Snowy Plus 1 June Active storage (approx.)(as at 27/8/2007)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Start of Month
Cu
mu
lati
ve
In
flo
w +
Sta
rtin
g A
cti
ve
S
tora
ge
(GL
)
2007/08 2006/07
Inflows plus Starting StorageSeason to date and last year
> 2,500 GL storage used last year
10
Lake Alexandrina Level
- 0.5 m
11
Salinity Lake Alexandrina
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Problems
1. Over-allocation
2. Over-entitlement
3. Interception
4. Inefficient storage management
5. Policy failure
6. Governance and administrative failure
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Adverse climate change
Mean supply 10,000
River & Storage Evap 2,000
Flow to sea 2,000
Deliverable water 6,000
Environment Use 1,500
Consumptive Use 4,500
0
Mean supply 7,000
River & Storage Evap 2,000
Flow to sea 2,000
Deliverable water 3,000
Environment Use 1,500
Consumptive Use 1,500
0
In Mediterranean climates, a 10% decline in mean rainfall results in around a 30% decline in mean storage inflow
10% less rain water means a 67% reduction in allocations unless the system is resized
14
Underlying problems
A dredge was put in the Murray Mouth in October 2002 – before the drought!
Nature’s solution to this problem has been to debase the reliability of your entitlements until some-one fixes the system
In a closed system when-ever one person takes more someone else or something else must get less
15
Flow & allocation interception
Reliability debasing activities1. Increased forestry2. More farm dams3. Increased irrigation efficiency4. More groundwater development5. More lined channels and more piped water6. More salinity interception
All high security impacts
Two Risks1. Climate change2. Bushfires
16
Elements of a solution
1. Hydrological integrity - Complete and full accounting for all water use
2. Connected groundwater defined as part of the system
3. An amount set aside for evaporation and minimum flow to the sea
4. Remainder formally shared between the environment and users
5. A Cap such that the River gets the really big spills
6. Expertise-based governance
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Some Important Detail
1. An expertise-based Authority allocating according to clear objectives
2. A system entitlement register to define state and other entitlements
3. Entitlements defined as shares of high security and general security pools
4. Size of high security pool changes defined using a moving average
5. 100% carry forward of all unused allocations adjusted for evaporative losses + tradeable delivery entitlements
6. Entitlement trading as fast and cheaply as the ASX
7. Allocation trading like internet banking
8. One central and several independent river environmental trusts
9. No difference between environmental and other entitlements
10.Groundwater close to the river defined as surface water
11.Salinity credits assigned to those who create them
12.Distribution system managed by existing private and government corporations
13.Land-use control managed by states
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A three year agenda
1. Robust design and governance
• A new system designed to cope with and facilitate change
2. Re-store reliability
• Purchase and tear up water entitlements to offset the impact of interception
3. Re-balance the share
• Water for the environment without wrecking the market
4. Review river-configuration
• Explore opportunities to reduce evaporative losses and facilitate efficient management of environmental water
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Investing in the future
Putting money on the table
1. Pay now for a percentage reduction to be implemented in 3 years time (~$2-3 billion now)
Tear up entitlements equivalent to interception and restore reliability and integrity
Transfer the remaining entitlements to local and a central environmental trusts
2. Pay well above market price, say, 150%
3. Pay all exit fees to your water supply company
4. Waive all Govt. water trading charges for next 3 years
5. No capital gains tax if money rolled over
Contact:
Prof Mike YoungWater Economics and ManagementEmail: [email protected]: +61-8-8303.5279Mobile: +61-408-488.538 www.myoung.net.au
Subscribe to our Droplets at www.myoung.net.au
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Adverse climate change
Mean supply 10,000
Evap 2,000
Flow to sea 2,000 4,000
Deliverable water 6,000
Environment Use 1,500
Consumptive Use 4,500
0
In Mediterranean climates, a 20% decline in mean rainfall results in around a 60% decline in mean supply
20% less rain water means almost no allocationunless evaporation and environment is resized
Mean supply 4,000
Evap 2,000
Flow to sea 200 2,200
Deliverable water 1,800
Environment Use 1,500
Consumptive Use 300
0
227
Mean and median inflows
Annual Inflows ranked
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
GL Mean = 11,229
Median = 9,033
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Salinity and Flow