water sustainability in nw costa rica: the challenge of ... · yamileth astorga, rafael celis, et...
TRANSCRIPT
Water sustainability in NW Costa Rica: the challenge of balancing the needs of
natural and human systems under climate change
Carolina Murcia, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Matteo Convertino, Andrea Albertin, Mahmood Sasa, Miguel A. Campo-Bescos, Greg A. Kiker, Jane Southworth, Wendy Graham, Peter Fredrick, Mark Brown, Peter Waylen, Julio Calvo, Yamileth Astorga, Rafael Celis, et al.
ATBC meeting, 26 Jun 2013
Structure of talk
1. Describe the general issues of water use and sustainability in the Tempisque –Bebedero watershed
2. Describe the firs steps in setting up a large interdisciplinary program to address these issues
3. Present a semantic analysis to elicit a mental model of stakeholders – how are stakeholders approaching the issues?
Project location
19th - mid 20th centuries
Arenal lake
1979
• 87.8 Km2 ( 33 Sq miles),
• 60 m deep (200 feet)
• 2,416 x109 m3 capacity, output 30-65 m3/sec •500 yrs useful life
• 12% of country’s electric power
Tempisque-Bebedero watersheds
28,000 ha
Rice crops, 10,000 Ha, 50% ag land
Sugar cane, 8,000 Ha, 40% ag land
Cattail
Other changes
• Urban & suburban settlements
• Tourism
Large-scale tilapia farming
Increased demand •More channels •Deep wells
Wel
ls a
nd
irri
gati
on
can
als
WATER BALANCE: water deficit at least 5 months of the year
Climate predictions
By end of this century
• Temperature
+ 2.6 - +3.6 Degrees
• Precipitation
- 5% - -16%
Long-term Goals
• understand the causes and consequences of current water availability and use in NW Costa Rica
• forecast how water allocations will change as climate and land use change
• Propose adaptive governance measures that may be taken to ensure regional sustainability (conservation of PV wetland)
Interdisciplinary team
U Florida
• Biological and Agricultural Engineering,
• Water Institute
• Climate Institute
• Geography
• Wildlife
• Center for Wetlands
• Law School
Organization for Tropical Studies
• Ecology
Rice University • Anthropology Rutgers University • Climatology Universidad de Costa Rica • Resource management-
community involvement • Biology Instituto Tecnologico de Costa Rica • Hidrology MARVIVA • Marine fisheries
Institutional context
• COSTA RICAN GOVERNMENT
– Environmental Agencies: MINAET, ACAT,
– Protected areas: National Parks (SINAC), PNPV,
– Institutions with jurisdiction over water: ICE, SENARA
– Other relevant institutions: IMN
Bringing together scientists and stakeholders
• April 2012 – 30 scientists,
– 15 stakeholders
• Formulated relevant research questions based on their appraisal of: – Research needs for management
– Issues they most critically need to understand in order to make management recommendations
• 17 topics, 86 questions.
how are stakeholders approaching the issues?
Class Time frame 1 Historic trends
2 Current status
3 Expected behavior
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0.6
1 2 3
P (
Tim
e f
ram
e)
Time frame class
Acad NGO
III. Semantic analyses
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Thematic areas
Acad NGO
Topic # Topic
1 Climate behavior
2 Impacts of climate on vegetation
3 Impacts of natural ecosystems on climate/production
4 Natural ecosystems behavior
5 Impacts of human activities on natural systems
6 Water system behavior
7 Impacts on water system behavior
8 Use/decision process
9 Governance
10 Nat System sustainability
11 Water Sustainability
12 Water use
13 Stakeholders
14 Institutions
15 Governance structure
16 Incentive mechanisms
17 Law and policy
Semantic network of all the workshop’s questions ``clustering and mapping’’ model
Semantic network of all the workshop’s questions ``clustering and mapping’’ model
Current actions and next steps
• Consolidating all available information and identifying knowledge gaps
• Identifying the theoretical conceptual frameworks (for research grant proposals)
• Nurturing collaboration with implementing CR institutions
• Align the metal models of stakeholders so that there is consensus on what are the most relevant components.