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Water sustainability in NW Costa Rica: the challenge of balancing the needs of
natural and human systems under climate change
Carolina Murcia, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Matteo Convertino, Andrea Albertin, Mahmood Sasa, Miguel A. Campo-Bescos, Greg A. Kiker, Jane Southworth, Wendy Graham, Peter Fredrick, Mark Brown, Peter Waylen, Julio Calvo, Yamileth Astorga, Rafael Celis, et al.
ATBC meeting, 26 Jun 2013
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Structure of talk
1. Describe the general issues of water use and sustainability in the Tempisque –Bebedero watershed
2. Describe the firs steps in setting up a large interdisciplinary program to address these issues
3. Present a semantic analysis to elicit a mental model of stakeholders – how are stakeholders approaching the issues?
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Project location
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19th - mid 20th centuries
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Arenal lake
1979
• 87.8 Km2 ( 33 Sq miles),
• 60 m deep (200 feet)
• 2,416 x109 m3 capacity, output 30-65 m3/sec •500 yrs useful life
• 12% of country’s electric power
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Tempisque-Bebedero watersheds
28,000 ha
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Rice crops, 10,000 Ha, 50% ag land
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Sugar cane, 8,000 Ha, 40% ag land
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Cattail
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Other changes
• Urban & suburban settlements
• Tourism
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Large-scale tilapia farming
Increased demand •More channels •Deep wells
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Wel
ls a
nd
irri
gati
on
can
als
WATER BALANCE: water deficit at least 5 months of the year
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Climate predictions
By end of this century
• Temperature
+ 2.6 - +3.6 Degrees
• Precipitation
- 5% - -16%
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Long-term Goals
• understand the causes and consequences of current water availability and use in NW Costa Rica
• forecast how water allocations will change as climate and land use change
• Propose adaptive governance measures that may be taken to ensure regional sustainability (conservation of PV wetland)
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Interdisciplinary team
U Florida
• Biological and Agricultural Engineering,
• Water Institute
• Climate Institute
• Geography
• Wildlife
• Center for Wetlands
• Law School
Organization for Tropical Studies
• Ecology
Rice University • Anthropology Rutgers University • Climatology Universidad de Costa Rica • Resource management-
community involvement • Biology Instituto Tecnologico de Costa Rica • Hidrology MARVIVA • Marine fisheries
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Institutional context
• COSTA RICAN GOVERNMENT
– Environmental Agencies: MINAET, ACAT,
– Protected areas: National Parks (SINAC), PNPV,
– Institutions with jurisdiction over water: ICE, SENARA
– Other relevant institutions: IMN
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Bringing together scientists and stakeholders
• April 2012 – 30 scientists,
– 15 stakeholders
• Formulated relevant research questions based on their appraisal of: – Research needs for management
– Issues they most critically need to understand in order to make management recommendations
• 17 topics, 86 questions.
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how are stakeholders approaching the issues?
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Class Time frame 1 Historic trends
2 Current status
3 Expected behavior
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1 2 3
P (
Tim
e f
ram
e)
Time frame class
Acad NGO
III. Semantic analyses
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Thematic areas
Acad NGO
Topic # Topic
1 Climate behavior
2 Impacts of climate on vegetation
3 Impacts of natural ecosystems on climate/production
4 Natural ecosystems behavior
5 Impacts of human activities on natural systems
6 Water system behavior
7 Impacts on water system behavior
8 Use/decision process
9 Governance
10 Nat System sustainability
11 Water Sustainability
12 Water use
13 Stakeholders
14 Institutions
15 Governance structure
16 Incentive mechanisms
17 Law and policy
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Semantic network of all the workshop’s questions ``clustering and mapping’’ model
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Semantic network of all the workshop’s questions ``clustering and mapping’’ model
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Current actions and next steps
• Consolidating all available information and identifying knowledge gaps
• Identifying the theoretical conceptual frameworks (for research grant proposals)
• Nurturing collaboration with implementing CR institutions
• Align the metal models of stakeholders so that there is consensus on what are the most relevant components.