water-supply monitoring & indicators nj water supply advisory council october 2, 2015 jeffrey l....
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Water-Supply Monitoring & Indicators
NJ Water Supply Advisory CouncilOctober 2, 2015
Jeffrey L. HoffmanNJDEP - NJGWS
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What is a Drought?
There are 4 different types of droughts.
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1. Meterological DroughtPrecipitation is less than normal
for longer than normal.
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2. Hydrologic DroughtReservoirs, streamflows & groundwater levels are lower than normal for longer than normal.
Concerns about ecological impacts.
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3. Agricultural Droughtevapotranspiration > precipitation at a time when plants need water.
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4. Water-Supply Droughts (Socioeconomic)
“… a water supply shortage of a dimension which endangers the public health, safety, or welfare in all or any part of the State…
N.J.S.A. 58:1A-4.a.
NJDEP’s Drought of Concern
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6 Regions
• Water-supply droughts may not affect all of NJ in same way.
• NJ divided into regions based on similar water-supply.
• Evaluate conditions in each region.
• Use municipal boundaries to help local officials apply water restrictions if they become necessary.
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Watch Warnings Emergencies Comment
-- -- mid-1960’s Drought of record for NJ
-- -- 9/12/80 - 4/27/82Started in northeastern NJ and
expanded to central and northern Delaware basin
-- -- 4/17/85 - 3/24/86 Northeastern NJ
-- 8/2/95-9/12/95 9/13/95 - 11/3/95 Northeastern NJ
-- 12/14/98 - 2/2/99 --Northeastern NJ (ended by record
rains in Jan '99)
-- 8/2/99 – 7/17/008/5/99 - 9/14/998/5/99 - 9/27/99
Southern NJNorthern NJ
(Hurricane Floyd, Sept '99)
10/31/01-3/21/03 1/24/02 – 3/21/03 3/4/02 – 3/21/03Some regions entered and left drought
status slightly earlier.
9/13/05 - 10/14/055/8/06 – 7/3/06
9/8/10 – 10/26/10-- --
Entire state in watch each time. Ended by statewide precipitation
events.
9/23/15 - NE, C, CN regions
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Relative Resource Importance to NJ Water Supply
Reservoirs Unconfined Region NJ DRBC Rivers groundwater
Northwest
Central
Northeast
Southwest
Coastal North
Coastal South
Major Source Minor Source Not a Regional Source
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Regional Indicators• Development started after 1999 events – two dry
periods that could have been recognized as a single longer one.
• Wanted a better way to summarize regional hydrologic conditions.
• Need to concisely convey information to decision makers & the public.
• Designed to be updated quickly using real-time data.
• Indicators, not triggers.
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Regional Indicators
• reservoirs (NJ & NY)
• groundwater levels
• streamflow
• precipitation
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Reservoir Indicator
compare current storage to rule curve.
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Evaluation criteria based on a frequency analysis of a running 90-
day deviation from normal.Rockaway R. above Reservoir - Flows
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1/05 2/05 3/05 4/05 5/05 6/05 7/05 8/05 9/05 10/05 11/05
Ob
serv
ed F
low
s (m
gd
)
daily surplus/deficit observed daily flow avg daily flow
Rockaway R. above Reservoir - deficits
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1/05 2/05 3/05 4/05 5/05 6/05 7/05 8/05 9/05 10/05 11/05
Ob
serv
ed
Flo
ws
90-day surplus/deficit 50% exceedence
30% exceedence 10% exceedence
Streamflow Indicator
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Groundwater Indicator
Evaluation criteria is based
on deviation from normal.
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Precipitation Indicator
Original
Get 90-day surplus/deficit from MARFAC.
Mentally overlay drought regions
and make a judgement call.
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Precipitation Indicator
New ~2009
Download GIS coverage of 90-day % of normal
precipitation from AHPS.
Clip to drought regions.
Calculate average % of normal in each region.
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2015 Change in evaluation criterion of the AHPS % of normal precipitation
• Precipitation indicator based
on % of normal wasn’t as
useful as it should have
been in evaluating water-
supply droughts.
• Change to a frequency
analysis.
• Percentages calibrated to
past water-supply droughts.
• Will revise if not useful
enough.
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Current Status
9/27/15
www.njdrought.org
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Drinking-Water-Supply Status
• DEP staff look at hydrologic indicators and make a recommendation.
• DEP Commissioner has authority to declare watch & warning.
• The Governor declares a drought emergency.• This is an evaluation of a water-supply
(socioeconomic) drought.
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Monitoring is always behind the curve.
“We welcome the first clear day after a rainy spell. Rainless days
continue for a time and we are pleased to have a long spell of such
fine weather. It keeps on and we are a little worried. A few days
more and we are really in trouble. The first rainless day in a spell of
fine weather contributes as much to the drought as the last, but no
one knows how serious it will be until the last dry day is gone and
the rains have come again.”
I.R. Tannehill, Drought: Its Causes and Effects, Princeton University
Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1947
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What’s Next?