Scenario based elicitation of expert perceptions of water security and climate change adaptation

in the Nile Basin

Marisa Goulden and Kate Porter University of East Anglia

m.goulden@uea.ac.uk

Owen Falls dam and hydropower station, Victoria Nile, Jinja, Uganda

What are the dominant discourses around climate

change and its relation to water security in the River Nile basin - how do these differ between

countries?

Research Question

Discourses of climate change Climate change as a:

1.  Market failure

2.  Technological hazard

3.  Global injustice

4.  Over consumption

5.  Mostly natural phenomenon

6.  Planetary tipping point

7.  Threat to security (national security, human security, climate security)

Hulme (2009)

Adger (2010)

Uncertainties over future water use in the River Nile Basin

•  Egypt and Sudan desire maintenance of 1959 agreement

•  Upstream countries reject 1959 agreement - water for economic development

•  Increasing populations and water demand

•  Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) emphasise ‘benefit sharing’, rather than ‘water sharing’

•  Basin-wide Nile Cooperative Framework Agreement uncertain.

Uncertainties over future climate in the Nile Basin

Projections of change in runoff in East Africa from global models

Change in flow by 2050 Study authors

Small decrease Manabe et al. 2004

Small decrease Aerts et al. 2006

Large increase Arnell 2003

Large increase Milly et al. 2005

Small = 0 to 5%, Moderate = >5 to <20%, Large = 20 to <50%, Very Large = 50% and over

Two scenarios for future Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Nile Basin

2030 - 2050 DECREASE IN NILE

FLOWS

•  Increase in temperatures •  Decrease in annual

average rainfall and Nile flows

•  High inter-annual variability – as in the last two decades or slightly increased

INCREASE IN NILE FLOWS

•  Increase in temperatures •  Increase in annual

average rainfall and Nile flows

•  High inter-annual variability – as in the last two decades or slightly increased

Two scenarios for future socio-economic/ water use conditions in the Nile Basin

2030 - 2050

No change in current water use

•  Similar water use / water

sharing in the basin to current day.

•  Upstream countries taking little water from the river and its tributaries

•  1959 agreement still utilised

Increased upstream use of water

•  Upstream countries use

substantially more water from river and tributaries

•  Increased water infrastructure in the basin

Four scenarios of climate and water use for discussion

Decrease in Nile flows Increase in Nile flows

No change in current water use

A B

Increased upstream

use of water C D

Future Climate Change impact on water for 2030 to 2050

Wat

er u

se p

atte

rns

in b

asin

Questions asked of each scenario 1. What would the scenario mean for

water security? 2. How would this impact on human

well-being? 3. What might be the adaptation needs or

options for this scenario?

Impact on water security of four scenarios

Decrease in Nile flows Increase in Nile flows

No change in current water use

Threat to water security (Eg, Et) ,

Worst case for Ethiopia, Reduced hydropower and

groundwater (Ug)

More flood and erosion damage, benefits to

hydropower, fisheries, groundwater (Ug, Et),

Not able to benefit from increased flows (Eg)

Increased upstream

use of water

Worst case for Egypt, Water for irrig (Et, Ug) but affected by upstream use

(Ug) Potential for basin conflict

Improved upstream water security, risk of flooding

and land degradation (Ug),

Future Climate Change impact on water for 2030 to 2050

Wat

er u

se p

atte

rns

in b

asin

Discourses associated with climate change and water security in the focus groups

•  Risks: flood risk, drought, health impacts, poverty

•  Water management – increasing demand, reduction of waste, storage, green and blue water

•  Efficiency

•  Technology - irrigation, crops

•  Information – forecasting, early warning, prediction, scientific information, traditional knowledge, education/awareness raising

Discourses associated with climate change and water security in the focus groups

•  Development

•  Security/ conflict – conflict potential: local and basin scale

•  Governance –cooperation (international, sub-national), access to water

•  Economics – virtual water trade, climate funding opportunities

•  Mitigation – linked to adaptation

•  Justice – adaptations unwelcome/uncomfortable

Discourses of Climate Change and Water security in the River Nile Basin

•  Dominant discourses are also applied to climate change, e.g.: cooperation; trade; technology; benefit sharing

•  Some discourses vary by riparian position

•  Superficial agreement in some discourses masks underlying differences

•  What is different about discourse around climate change?

Common discourses •  Population growth and water demand increase is a major

threat to water security •  Cooperation for water security: win-win/ benefit sharing •  Conflict potential– local and basin level •  Trade – adapt by importing virtual water and changing

exports •  Need for improved water management, efficiency, better

technology, better information and predictions for planning

Lake Victoria, the source of the Nile, Uganda

Contrasting discourses •  Egypt: green and blue water – encourage

upstream use of green water not blue water

•  Ug/Et: benefits of upstream water storage

•  Eg/Et/Ug opportunities to use more groundwater, Ug – threat to groundwater from climate change

Branch of River Nile in Cairo, Egypt

Contrasting applications of common discourses: cooperation

•  Egypt – cooperation to increase blue water flows to Egypt

•  Uganda – cooperation necessary for basin-wide agreement on development of water infrastructure

•  Ethiopia – cooperation for basin wide planning and integration of agricultural systems.

Lake Victoria, the source of the Nile, Uganda

Conclusions: impact of climate change on water security discourse

•  Uncertainty of future climate change impacts and water development trends – cause for security concern, or opportunity for cooperation (and funding)

•  Increasing temperatures may strengthen arguments for water storage in Ethiopian highlands

•  Climate change still fairly low priority, becoming increasingly prominent: will this lead to change in discourses?

•  Consideration of scenarios strengthened a belief in cooperation as a solution

End of Ethiopia Focus Group •  P3: But I was surprised to find out that the status quo (Scenario

A) was the worst scenario for Ethiopia. Weren’t you surprised? Well everyone thinks that in the future it will be worse and worse.

•  P6: If you don’t do anything – •  P: - Yeah, I think this is the worst – •  P: With climate change. •  P1: That’s why you know climate change is going to give an

emphasis, you know – •  P3: - For cooperation. •  P6: For cooperation. This is very good. •  P1: In order to change. •  P3: We are working with climate change and talking in

workshops but I have never realised that – •  P: Yeah it’s really important.

References •  Adger, WN (2010) Climate change, human well-

being and insecurity. New Political Economy, 15 (2). pp. 275-292.

•  Hulme, M. (2009) Why we disagree about climate change: understanding controversy, inaction and opportunity. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 392pp.