M U R R O W C E N T E R 2 0 1 4 I N T E R N A T I O N A L I N Q U I R Y

T hese are the opening lines of a play named SILA (breath), written by a Quebecois woman and premiered in the Boston area in April.

The play is set on Baffin Island with a cast of eight: a climate researcher, an Inuit activist, a mother/teacher, an elder hunter, two Coast Guard officers (one with a development bent, the other engaged in a dangerous sea emergency), and a polar bear mother and pup.

Their words and actions exemplify the vital themes

and conflicts of the larger Arctic—and of the 3rd annual Fletcher international inquiry conference in March 2014 at the Fletcher School, Tufts University.

Entitled ‘The Warming Arctic: Development, Stewardship and Science,” the presenters and participants from different countries and disciplines who are active in the High North examined how best to balance the development impulse with stewardship concerns. The SILA soliloquy set the stage in its concluding sentence:

THE NEW ARCTIC BALANCING ACTWarming Arctic: Development, Stewardship, Science

I come from a place of barren landscapes and infinite skies. I come from a place of rugged mountains, imperial glaciers, and tundra-covered permafrost. I come from a place where North is

where you stand and South, everywhere else. Where there are five seasons and no trees. Where the days last twenty-four hours and the nights, too.

I come from a place where skyscrapers are made of ice and proudly ride winds and currents.

This place I come from we call Nunavut. It means “Our Land” in Inuktitut. It’s where we Inuit have thrived more than 4000 years. It’s where we strive to realize our full potential. It’s where we

nurture our knowledge of who we are. But Nunavut, our land, is only as rich as it is cold. And today, most of it is melting.

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Blessed with abundant natural resources, the Arctic’s economic evolution is prompted by warming air and water allowing newly opening shipping routes to, from, and through the region. Whether seen from North America . . .

FOLLOW THE CHOKEPOINT ROUTES

�

2010 - 4 passages 111 000 mt 2011 - 34 passages 821 000 mt 2012 - 46 passages 1 260 000 mt 2013 - 71 passages 1 350 000 mt Serving a wide variety of vessels and cargoes generating savings in time, cost and emissions; large tankers, bulkcarriers, LNG reefer and offshore vessels.

Turns a Freight Disadvantage into an Advantage

. . . or from a Eurasian perspective.

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The eight member countries of the Arctic Council share circumpolar bonds, as witnessed at the collective lighting of the 2014 Winter Olympic torch at the North Pole in November 2013 after a 3100 mile journey from Murmansk on a Russian icebreaker.

ALLIES, PALS, AND COMPETITORS

Olympic Torch Relay at North Pole

Interests of the Arctic States • Overall security environment is stable and armed conflict in the Arctic

region is unlikely – All countries are committed to legal processes and have no significant

incentive to disrupt the course of developments

• Arctic states generally seek to avoid conflict, gain secure access to natural resources, and foster economic activity and development

– Countries anticipate oil and gas extraction, mining, fishing, and shipping – All littoral states are pursuing Extended Continental Shelf recognition

• Coast guards are generally more active than navies in the Arctic, but no country has robust operating coverage or capability

– Russia has most significant capabilities: dozens of civilian icebreakers and military assets; polar operating experience

– Canada plans an Arctic naval facility, ice-strengthened patrol ships, new icebreakers, and is gaining experience through annual exercises

Arctic states already have significant economic interests in the region • Arctic contributes 12% of Russian GDP, 25% of exports, and 3.8 million jobs, including fisheries, mining, and petroleum industry (not counting the military). • Arctic contributes 5.7% of Norwegian GDP, mainly from fishing, government expenditures, and petroleum industry. • Arctic contributes 0.6% of Canadian GDP, but looms large in national self-image. Arctic industries include natural resources, construction • Arctic contributes 0.6% of Danish GDP – but all of Greenland is Arctic or near-Arctic – including fishing, mining, construction, and government expense.

UNCLASSIFIED

CANADA

• Northwest Passage sovereignty is key • Arctic part of military “core missions” • Annual Arctic military exercises • Arctic naval facility planned at Nanisivik • 6-8 ice-capable patrol ships planned • Arctic military training center

NORWAY

• Svalbard sovereignty is key • “Credible, consistent, and predictable” • Expanding regulation in Arctic • Progress in petroleum development • Good working relationship with Russia • Positive on NATO in the Arctic

DENMARK

• Long-term Greenlandic independence? • Plan to establish Arctic Command and Response Force from existing assets

ICELAND

• Fishing: 60-70% of exports,11% of GDP • No military; small, capable Coast Guard

THE ARCTIC STATES RUSSIA

• Arctic contributes12%+ of GDP • Modernizing/replacing ageing Navy • Arctic key to strategic defense • Developing NSR as global shipping lane and Arctic for energy production • Resubmitting ECS, probably by 2014

They also have differing political, economic and security concerns:

Presented by Dean James Stavridas

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Artists and photographers illuminate Arctic life as importantly as scholars and statesmen. These two pieces were selected from the works of eight contemporary international photographers featured at a current exhibit “Seeing Glacial Time: Climate Change in the Arctic” at the Aidekman Art Gallery at Tufts University. Collected by Amy Schlegel, director of Galleries, to “visualize the largely imperceptible, gradual change in ‘glacial time’,” it coincided with the Fletcher Warming Arctic conference.

ARCTIC ARTIST WORKSHOP

Subhankar Banerjee: “Oil and the Caribou” wildlife migration shot in the Alaska Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

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A key character in the SILA performance is befriended, from left, by Debra Wise, Artistic Director, Central Square Theater ; conference sponsor, Marianne Bonnard, Quebec Government Office, Boston; playwright Chantal Bilodeau; and Aaron Annable, Consulate General of Canada; and conference co-chairs Crocker Snow, director Murrow Center and Prof. William Moomaw, Center for International Environment and Resource Policy, Fletcher. A pre-premier reading of crucial scenes of the play opened the ‘Warming Arctic’ inquiry.

Gilles Mingasson: “The end of

Shishmaref,” an Arctic Island village in western

Alaska, documents its endangered way of life

as scientists predict that sea level rise will mean

the disappearance of the village and the

island by 2017.

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Inquiry Participants

The above refrain is repeated by many Arctic inhabitants, scientists and developers, if not always practiced.

It was surely the theme and message of a 15-minute documentary The Land of Our Future filmed by four Inuit teenagers in the Northwest Territories and made possible by the Institute for Circumpolar Health Research and the Gordon Foundation. The film was presented by Gordon Foundation president Tom Axworthy.

LISTEN TO THE LAND

Crocker Snow, The Fletcher School, Co-Chair

William Moomaw, The Fletcher School, Co-Chair

Melissa Freitag, The Fletcher School, Coordinator

Celia Mokalled, The Fletcher School. Logistics

SPEAKERS

Michel Allard, Universite’ Laval

Tom Axworthy, The Gordon Foundation

Chantal Bilodou, Playwright

Scott Borgerson, CargoMetrics

Steve Colt, University of Alaska, Anchorage

Jennifer Francis, Rutgers University

Lee Freitag, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Roberta Graham, State of Alaska

Amb. John Higginbotham, Carleton University Canada

Michael Klare, Five College Consortium

Amy Schlegel, Aidekmann Arts Center, Director

Hugh Short, Pt Capital

Joe Stanislaw, J A Stanislaw Group

James Stavridis, The Fletcher School, Dean

Felix Tschudi, Tschudi Group, Norway

Margaret Williams, World Wildlife Fund

MODERATORS

Scott Borgerson, CargoMetrics

Steve Curwood, Living on Earth

Antje Danielson, Tufts Institute for the Environment

Charles Sennot, The Global Post

SOME PARTICIPANTS

Carolina Aguirre Echeverri, Fletcher

Aaron Annable, Consulate of Canada

Isaac Arnsdorf, Bloomberg Media

Elizabeth Axworthy

Grga Basic, Harvard GSD

Marianne Bonnard, Government of Quebec

Albert Buixade Farre, Fletcher

Barbara Chai, Fletcher

Downing Cless, Tufts University

Jungwoo Chun, Fletcher

Lainy Destin, Environment Canada

Genny Dunne, Fletcher OCS

Laurence Gagnon, Government of Quebec

George Gamota

Bridget Gersten, The Fletcher School, Diplomat in Residence

Elizabeth Hanson, Executive Office of Environment and Energy Affairs (MA)

Robert Helbig, Fletcher

Alan Henrikson, The Fletcher School, Professor

Andrew Holman, BSU Canadian Studies Program

Michael Johnson-Chase

Ian Johnstone, The Fletcher School, Academic Dean

Amit Kanodia, Lincoln Ventures

Chris Klemm, Audubon Society

Sue Klemm, Audubon Society

Terje Korsnes, Honorary Consul of Norway

George Kosar, Tufts University, Development

Ryan Leary, Fletcher

Val Livada, MIT

Laura London, Fletcher

Linda Malik

Celia Mokallid, CIERP

Anthony Monaco, Tufts University, President

Kyra Montagu, Gordon Foundation

Chase Morrison, Carleton University

Anne Moulakis, Fletcher

Elena Nikolova, Fletcher

Pamela Olvera, Fletcher

Chris Petersen, Fletcher

Benjamin Rabe, Fletcher

Julia Radice, Fletcher

Richard Sanders, US Coast Guard Academy

Franziska Schrwazmann, Fletcher

Gerard Sheehan, The Fletcher School, Associate Dean

Augusta Stanislaw

George Stetson, US Coast Guard Academy

Doug Struck, Emerson College

Abigail Trafford, Writer

Caroline Troein, Fletcher

Mieke van der Wansem, The Fletcher School, CIERP, Asst. Director

Timothy Weiskel, Harvard University, EcoEthics

Rockford Weitz, Rhumb Line International

Isaac Williams, Fletcher

Debra Wise, Underground Theatre Project

Andrew Wood, US Coast Guard Academy

Mia Yen, Dept of Foreign Affairs, Canada

. . . and the cast of SILA

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The Arctic has its advocates, critics, science surrogates and, of course, its government oversight. How wise, efficient and effective is this? These lists presented by John Higganbotham, senior fellow Center for Governance and Innovation, Carleton University, depict a traffic jam or Rubic’s Cube of North American government committees and agencies involved in Arctic governance, not counting state and territorial agencies from Alaska, the Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut, or native watchdog groups.

LOGJAM OF ARCTIC GOVERNANCE

Canadian Federal Departments and Agencies involved in the Arctic

• Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC), • Transport Canada (TC) • Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD) • Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) • Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) • Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) • Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) • Environment Canada (EC) • Canadian Forces • Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency (CanNor) • Canadian Polar Commission

U.S. Federal Departments and Agencies involved in the Arctic

• Arctic Research Commission • Army Corps of Engineers, Dept. of Defense • Bureau of Land Management, Dept. of the Interior • Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Dept. of the Interior • Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, Dept. of the Interior • Coast Guard, Dept. of Homeland Security • Department of Agriculture • Department of State • Environmental Protection Agency • Federal Aviation Administration, Dept. of Transportation • Fish and Wildlife Service, Dept. of the Interior • Marine Mammal Commission • Maritime Administration, Dept. of Transportation • National Ocean Council, Executive Office of the President • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Dept. of Commerce • National Park Service, Dept. of the Interior • Navy, Dept. of Defense • Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President • Office of the Federal Coordinator for Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Projects • Office of the Secretary, Dept. of the Interior • Office of the Secretary, Dept. of Transportation • Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration • U.S. Geological Survey, Dept. of the Interior

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Inquiries: crocker.snow@tufts.edu • (978) 395-1961

The 3rd annual Warming Arctic International Inquiry in March 2014 at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University was sponsored by The Canadian Consulate of Boston, the Boston Office of Quebec, the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, the Tufts Institute of the Environment and the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University. The report was prepared by conference co-chair Crocker Snow Jr. with Melissa Freitag and with layout and printing by Hobblebush Design.

HIGH NORTH WEATHER WATCHThe science of ArctIc weather patterns and their impact on not only the region but on climate change around the globe was highlighted by pioneer climate researcher Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University.

A Hypothesis Linking Rapid Arctic Warming with More Persistent Weather Patterns1. Changes in the thickness of the lower half of the atmosphere during

the recent decade during fall, caused by warming of that layer. The larger increases over the Arctic region illustrate Arctic amplification of global warming, which reduces the difference in temperature between the Arctic and lower latitudes.

2. The Arctic/mid-latitude temperature difference is a main driver of the west-to-east winds of the jet stream. As this difference decreases over time, so does the speed of the westerly winds.

3. Weaker westerly winds cause the jet stream to meander north/south more (orange wavy line) than when it’s stronger (red wavy line). The jet stream marks the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the north/south waves in the flow create the weather patterns felt on the surface. As the waves grow in the jet stream, they tend to move more slowly eastward, so the weather they create does, too.

4. The pattern during winter 2013/13 provides an excellent example of an extremely wavy jet stream that lasted for several months and caused a variety of weather extremes around the northern hemisphere. These types of patterns are expected to occur more frequently as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase.

5. Climate change can contribute to extreme weather events in a variety of ways. Sorting out these effects and separating climate-change contributions from natural fluctuations is an area of active research.

Rapid Arctic Warming Links to Mid-Latitude Weather Patterns

West wind

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