vulnerability of human organizations eneas research the presentation is an intellectual property of...
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Vulnerability of Vulnerability of Human OrganizationsHuman Organizations
ENEA’s Research
The presentation is an Intellectual Property of the author.
Adam Maria Gadomskihttp://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it
Research Center Casaccia, 05 June 2006
ENTE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, L’ENERGIA E L’AMBIENTE
Unità di Calcolo e Modellistica
High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group
The CAMO Workshop on Complex Networks and Infrastructure Protection, 2006
CONTENS
EXPERIMENTS Real Case Study
Modeling Results
Simulation Experiments
CONCLUSIONS
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
INTRODUCTION
ENEA’s Research Objectives
Context & Application Domains THEORETICAL BASES
Basic Strategy
TOGA Meta-Theory
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
© 2006, A.M.Gadomski ENEA.. All stuff may be freely distributed in its full original format, if selected ideas are to be published in another format, a reference to the original source and to the author must be evidenced, Intellectual Rights reserved. No permission is granted to download and save professional images or any other material from these pages other than for citation purposes. These material is representing the opinions of the contributor, but not necessarily of ENEA.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
ENEA’s Research & Technology Development
Objectives
Long term research objectives (since 1990)
Development of the Modeling Framework of
a Cognitive Synthetic/Abstract Intelligence by
the theory development and simulation experiments
Middle and short term RTD objectives (2001- 2009)
- Development of Intelligent Organization Cognitive Models
- Identification of Vulnerabilities of Human Organizations
- Simulation & Validation Experiments, test cases based
(in frame of IRRIIS and CRESCO Projects).
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Three Layers Model of an Critical Infrastructure
ENEA’s R&T Development Objectives
CyberCyberLayerLayer
Organisational Organisational LayerLayer
Intra-dependency
Inter-dependencyPhysical Physical LayerLayer
[Bologna, Balducelli, 2002]
ENEA’s R&T Development Objectives
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
PROBLEMS
Identification and Improvement of human & artificial organizations:
Functions
Processes
Structures &
their Computationability [ Gadomski]
…
Hierarchical Decomposition (?)
CyberCyberLayerLayer
Physical Physical LayerLayer
Organisational Organisational LayerLayer
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Context & Application Domains: Socio-Cognitive Engineering
Cognitive ---> Socio-Cognitive Modeling ---> Technological Contexts
Intelligence ---> Decision-Making Modeling ---> in High-Risk Contexts
Development platform: Intelligent Agents Technologies + Systemics Design Methodology
Expected Application Domains: Organizational Layer (IRRIIS)
What-if Simulations (CRESCO)
IDSSs and Intelligent Networks
Reinforcement of Organizational Intelligence.
Especially for Large Complex Critical Infrastructures Protection.
involving
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Complexity of Human Organization Layer
Multi-dimensional attributes space
Complex network of interactions
Continuous & Discrete Dynamics
Interactions with dynamic physical & social environment
Intelligent knowledge-based and interest-based human nodes
Autonomy of nodes
Emotional and Body contribution components
Cognitive factors: ill measurable, observable and monitored
It requires a new complex computational systemic methodology for the modeling.
Physics based statist. models (primitive intelligence)
New modeling paradigms (high intelligence)
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
THEORETICAL BASES: Specification Strategy
Generic Research Strategy
hypothesis: Top-down
Layered
and
Goal- driven
Knowledge Acquisition Modeling Implementation Case-Based
Validation
Objectives
…
Required:
Completeness,
Congruence &
Trust
Partial Results
Final Results
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
THEORETICAL BASES
TOGA (Top-down Object-based Goal-oriented Approach) is a formal goal-oriented knowledge ordering meta-theory, its objective is to enable identification and design of complex systems & their computer simulation. It has three basic components:- Theory of Abstract Objects (TAO) is a first level and a basic domain independent conceptualization system and a consensus building platform;-Knowledge Conceptualization System (KNOCS), It includes the TOGA’s ontology, i.e. axiomatic assumptions and basic conceptualization frameworks for the definition and decompositions of the real-world problem into an intelligent agent (IA) and domains of IA goal-oriented activities, i.e. the triple:
(Intelligent Entity, Environment, Interactions) Methodological Rules System (MRUS) for the specification (if not existing yet) or identification (if existing) of complex systems and problems; it indicates how TAO and KNOCS have to be used during the conceptual identification, specification and solution of real word problems.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Essential Paradigms for Organization Modeling
URP (Universal Reasoning Paradigm) is based on the application of the data processing scheme to the human goal-oriented reasoning. It defines “elementary mind cell” and its components: Information, Preferences and Knowledge.Data – are everything what is/can be processed.Information, I - data which represent a specific property of the domain of human or artificial agent's activity .Preferences, P - Preference is an ordered relation among two properties of a real or abstract domain of activity of a cognitive agent. It indicates a property with higher utility or subjective importance.Knowledge, K - every abstract property of a human or artificial agent which has ability to process/transform a (quantitatively/qualitatively) information into other information.
Every new Information is processed by Knowledge:
In’ = K jn( In ), j=1, …J, for the domain ,
where choice of K j depends on max.preferred state:
max{ P (In)} == Goal_state,
and n indicates a conceptualization point-of-view.
Fig. The IPK cell it is an elementary mind cell in TOGA .
I
KPgoal
Domain of Activity
n
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Essential Paradigms for Organization ModelingUMP (Universal Management Paradigm) defines necessary components of the management process and their main interrelations according to. It includes a cooperating-manager environment from the subjective perspective of a pre-selected decision-making manager. The figure is also a definition of characteristic property of a management role.
MANAGER
INFORMER EXECUTOR
information tasks
ADVISOR
expertisesCOOPERATING
MANAGER
cooperation
tasks information
Knowledge Preferences The same
structure
SUPERVISOR
Domain of management (Domain of activities)
ROLE def.IPK based definitions of the relative roles and their main interrelations: role (competences, responsibility, privileges).Competence – professional knowledgeResponsibility –preferences resulting from: tasks, duties in a preselected domainPrivileges - access to the information and executive power.
Every element of the UMP structure is functional, subjective, incremental and recursive.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Identification of Vulnerability and Trust The presented modeling frames enable identification of different types of organizational vulnerability: on individual levels, for group d-m, and cooperative intra-organizational types.
Using IPK
I
KPgoal
Domain of Activity
n
We may distinguish:
- Not sufficient information
- Not proper preferences
-Not adequate competences (knowledge).
- Improper communication
Using UMP
MANAGER
INFORMER EXECUTOR
information tasks
ADVISOR
expertisesCOOPERATING
MANAGER
cooperation
tasks information
Knowledge Preferences
The same structure
SUPERVISOR
Domain of management (Domain of activities)
Vulnerabilities
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Integrated TOGA Modeling Framework
DOMAIN OF ACTIVITY/INTERVENTIONS
A B
C
Executors, informers
Experts
Supervisor
Manager Manager
Coordinator
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
EXPERIMENTS
• Real Cases Study
• Modeling Results
• Simulation experiments
Social Consequences
Human Errors
Human Factors
Modeling for Simulation
Identification sequence:
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Analyzed Test Cases
1. Blackout Italy/Suisse , 28 september 2003
2. Chernobyl disaster
3. Katrina hurricane
4. Airport Linate accident
5. Tsunami: international scale catastrophe –Indian
Ocean
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Modeling of Vulnerabilities Path
Identification of the Organizations Involved (object-based)
Identif. of Roles:
- Information acquisition and execution capacities
- Responsability and competences (IPK)
Cause - Consequence Tables Building
Identification of vulnerabilities in terms of UMP and
organizational IPK.
User trust evaluation/assessment
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Test Case: Application of UMP
ITALIAN ELECTRIC SISTEMInvolved organizations
GRTN
tasks
Ministero dell’Economia
information
Aceaelectrabel
CommissioniTecniche ENEL
Disaster domain
observations actions
Requets/expertises
Requets/expertises
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
TSUNAMI
PTWC, USGS,ITIC
tasks
information
IOC, ITIC, CCR
ONU
information
tasks
MD, SMC
NOAA PTWS
Disaster domain
observations actions
Requets/expertises
Requets/expertises
1. Supervisor “Onu” : la sua supervisione si realizza mediante lo IOC;
2. Manager “Ptws” : coordinatore dell’attività dei centri operativi;
3. Advisor “Noaa” : centro specializzato che si occupa della rilevazione degli tsunami nell’Oceano Pacifico;
4. Cooperating manager “Ioc, Itic, Ccr” : centri di monitoraggio che assistono il Ptws nella fase di coordinamento delle attività;
5. Informer “Ptwc, Usgs, Itic” : si occupa di informare i paesi e le popolazioni che affacciano sull'Oceano Pacifico, sul rischio tsunami
6. Executor “Md, Smc” : dipartimenti locali responsabili della gestione dell’allarme.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Blackout Italy/Suisse
I
KP
IPK ETRANS
Objects and relations vulnerable
I
KP
IPK GRTN
We observe different conflicts of points of view between cooperating organizations
- A common tasks/roles platform is required.
I
KP
IPK PTWS
IPK PTWC, USGS, ITIC
IPK MD, SMC
IPK ITIC
I
KP
I
KP
I
KP
Examples: Interactions between organizations
Ruoli
Casi
Supervisor
Manager CooperatingManager
Advisor Informer Executor
ItalianBlackout
Chernobyl
Linate
Katrina
Tsunami
Identification of vulnerability on the IPK level and according to the UMP roles.
RISULTS
Legenda:
Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Informazioni Nessun valore dominante
Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Preferenze
Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Conoscenze
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
RISULTSQualitative synthesis of the causes of losses during the Emergency Management
of analyzed cases.
Legenda: 0 – Non evitabili
1 – Evitabili
Non essenziale per lo scenario della Risposta
Essenziale per lo scenario della Risposta
Cause:
Casi
Naturale Tecnologico IPK di managers
Strutture Organizzative
Comunicazione Interna
Comunicazione tra organizzazioni
Blackout it. 0 1 1 1 1
Chernobyl 1 1 1 1
Linate 1 1 1 1
Katrina 0 1 1 1
Tsunami 0 1 1 1
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
IInn
KKPP
II11
KKPP
II22
KKPP
II33
KKPP
Infrastructure NetworkInfrastructure NetworkReal Emergency Domain
- -- - --
II
KKPPAgent ManagerAgent Manager
Agent 1Agent 1 Agent 2Agent 2 Agent 3Agent 3 Agent nAgent n
I : InformationI : Information
P : PreferencesP : Preferences
K : KnowledgeK : Knowledge
Simulation Approach: Agent-Based Architecture
Agents with different roles
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Incremental Simulation: Top-down design
Incremental design experiment (2004)
Top-down Specializations
Environ. Activity Domain Org. Body IPK Decision-Making Acting
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Simulation: illustrative Working Test Case: Emergence Propagation Map
Explosion in Chemical Factory
Vulnerable Node
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Simple Simulation: PROPAGATION OF EMERGENCY WITHOUT INTERVENTION
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
D1 D2 … DN
IB1 IB2 … IBN
PB1 PB2 … PBN
KB1 KB2 … KBN
Domains of support (activity)
Meta-Scenario: Tasks Actions IPK BasesProcedures
Software : Computational Codes Software : Data Bases & Rule Bases
Method
Method
MethodReasoningModels
Information
Preferences
Knowledge…
Simulator: IPK Bases for Organizational Decision Making
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Support for Emergency Management
Possible main generic functions of an Intelligent Cognitive Advisor:
• Monitoring,
• Detection of Abnormalities/Erroneous States
• Diagnostics
• “What-if” evaluation
• Decision suggestions
• Expansion ability (new decision-support properties)
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Possible Full-Scale Simulator Architecture
User-Tasks Manager (agent) Intell. Support & Cognitive Interfaces
MIT Interface
Simulation Agent
A-Tool Spec. Agent
Functions Base
Core Scenario Simulator
Function Factory
Event Factory
A-Tools Factory
OL CL PL
Configuration Agent
F.Specialization Agent
E.Specialization Agent
Interpretation-Tools Factory
I-Tool Application Agent
OL CL PL
(TOGA based proposal)Functions activated in the Event-Action Scenario (EAS)
A function & tool under development
Tools used in an action in EAS
Org.LayerOL
CogLayerCL
Emot.LayerPL
Org.LayerOL
CogLayerCL
Emot.LayerPL
I -tool: a tool for the interpretation of SYNTEXT simulation results.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Conclusions
Nowadays Socio-Cognitive Engineering is an emerging systemic response on the dramatically growing risk of negative consequences of Human Errors, it is inevitable tool of the XXI century.
- Complexity of problems requires new 3rd Generation Integration Approaches such as the TOGA multi-factor problem representation and parallel modeling, and Intelligent Decision Support Systems/(Intelligent Advisors Network) development.
- Key problems are referred to the individual understanding and common transparency of decision-making processes for their intelligent human actors-contributors.
- Socio-Cognitive Engineering requires new specialists on organizational, national and international levels.
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
CONCLUSIONS
The presented works have provided important modeling frameworks.
The future short-term activity will be focused on:
1. Cognitive Modeling of Managerial Decision-Making under high-risk
2. Socio-technological Modeling of LCCIs collaboration
3. Development of the demo Simulation of high-risk management in human Organization
The activity have been done in ENEA. It included several student theses of:
1. University “La Sapienza” :
– Systems and Informatics Dep.
– Sociology Dep.
– Psychology Dep.
– Faculty of Communication Sciences (Cognitive Ergonomics)
2. University of Rome “Tor Vergata”:
- Faculty of Industrial Management
Some References
Copyright High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA , http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Adam M. Gadomski, 23/06/2005
1. A.M. Gadomski. Information about System-Process-Goal Approach to diagnostics and supervisory of nuclear reactor system. Materials of 19th Informal Meeting on Reactor Noises, Rome, June 1986.
2. A.M. Gadomski. Application of System-Process-Goal Approach for description of TRIGA RC1 System. Proceedings of " 9th. European TRIGA Users Conference ", Oct., 1986, Roma. Printed by GA
Technologies, TOC-19, USA. 1987, also the ENEA Report RT TIB/88/2, 1988. http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/TOto/pdf/(1)an%20application%20of%20spg%20approach%20to%20the%20triga%20rc1.pdf
2. A.M. Gadomski .TOGA: A methodological and Conceptual Pattern for modelling of Abstract Intelligent Agent . In Proc. of the ‘First International Round-Table on Abstract Intelligent Agent’,25-27 Jan 1993, The ENEA print (1994).
3. A..M.Gadomski. Patterns for Conceptualization of Knowledge on Technological Systems Organizations and Human (invited paper). 9th Polish-Italian-Finnish Conference on Systems Analysis and Decision Support in Economics and Technology, Radziejowice, Poland. 25-28 October 1993.
4. A.M. Gadomski, Meta-Knowledge Engineering & Management Server (since 1997), http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it
5. A.M.Gadomski, S. Bologna, G.DiCostanzo, A.Perini, M. Schaerf. Towards Intelligent Decision Support Systems for Emergency Managers: The IDA Approach. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, IJRAM, 2001, Vol 2, No 3/4.
6. A.M. Gadomski, TOGA Systemic Approach to the Global Specification - EUREKA Sophocles Project Report, ENEA,
2002. http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/RepSoph-v10.pdf
7. A.M. Gadomski, Modeling of Socio-Cognitive Vulnerability of Human Organizations: TOGA Meta-Theory Approach , Proc. of International Workshop on Complex Network and Infrastructure Protection, CNIP 2006 , 28- 29 March 2006, Rome, Italy.
For more references see: http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/gad/gad-pape.html
Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006
Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEA’s Research
Thank Thank you !you !
CRESCO SOC-COG
CRESCO SOC-COG
New research CRESCO subproject (2006-2009):
“Modellistica delle Reti Complesse viste come Aggregati Socio-Tecnologici “ – Aspetto di loro Vulnerabilità Umana.