vulnerability of complex infrastructure systems
DESCRIPTION
Vulnerability of Complex Infrastructure Systems. Torbjörn Thedéen Safety Research, KTH. HAZARDS. Nature-Acts of God: Earthquakes, Extreme floods, Thunder storms ... Failures of material ... Human lapses Organizational errors Hackers Terrorism War. Info Stairs. Many data - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Vulnerability of Complex Infrastructure Systems
Torbjörn Thedéen
Safety Research, KTH
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•HAZARDS
• Nature-Acts of God: Earthquakes, Extreme floods, Thunder storms ...
• Failures of material ...• Human lapses• Organizational errors• Hackers• Terrorism• War
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D a t a N e t w o r k
P o w e r N e tF i n a n c e N e t
T r a n s p o r t N e t w o r k
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E S
… … .
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Info Stairs
Many dataClassical statistical analysis
Few dataLogical modelReliability methodsPRASubjective
Probabilities
Bayesian methods
Precursors, Incidents
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•Research Areas
• Terrorist Groups• Motivation• Religious, political,
social, economic studiesConditional
• Power+possibilities
• Conditional Vulnerability
• Consequences given ´attacks´:
• Dams, transportation, power grids...
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Vulnerability USA October 07
Vulnerability of Road Transportation Systems
(Erik Jenelius KTH)
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Conditional Vulnerability
• Road systems modelled as a connected graph
• Conditioned of one link is out, the consequences are estimated:
• The increased total traffic time• The unsatisfied demand• The most ´important´ or one link at random
is taken out
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Example
• Northern Sweden
• The average traffic is known
• The traffic for a disturbed net can be calculated
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Unsatisfied veh/total00 - 0.00050.0005 - 0.00170.0017 - 0.00360.0036 - 0.00840.0084 - 0.024
0 200 400 Kilometers
Figur 6
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Vehicles/day0 - 15931594 - 48114812 - 1053310534 - 1958619587 - 35742
0 200 400 Kilometers
Figur 2
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Vehicle min/veh0 - 0.020.02 - 0.080.08 - 0.190.19 - 0.450.45 - 1.22
0 200 400 Kilometers
Figur 5
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Vulnerability of Power Net
Power Generation
Power Transmission
Power Distribution and Consumption
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Power Generation
Dam Safety and Security
Safety analysis OK, but security antagonistic threats??
Nuclear Power Plants. PRA safety OK,
Defense passive?
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Power Nets - Vulnerability
• (Statistical Analysis of Collapses) Too few!
• Vulnerability analysis of empirical graph model – partly classisfied!
• Vulnerability analysis of idealized graph model (coupled branching processes)
•
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Power law of large consequences, power grid
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Power Net – Graph Model
Power stations
Transformers
400 kV
110 kV
220 V Consumers
…………
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Powergeneration
Consumers
Branching Process
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Limiting result
• One link is removed at random. The proportion of unserved consumers has in the limit a distribution with a right tail of power type exponent – 1.
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Vulnerability and Terrorism
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Terrorism
Motivation Terrorist groups
Basis Common goal
Cause fear, chaos and deaths!
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TERRORISM AND DEFENSE
Enemy infrastructure
Criticalinfrastructure
?Partly known Known
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Fighting Terrorism
• Knowledge or qualified guesses about probable terrorist groups, their goals and actions constitutes:
• Basis for our defence of infrastructures ...
• Basis for our actions against terrorist groups
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Fight Between Two Networks
• Our critical infrastructures: power, transportation, data, finance, water ...
• KNOWN TO THE ENEMY!
• Enemy infrastructure: terrorist groups
• ALMOST UNKNOWN TO US!
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Terrorist Network
Known links and nodesUnknown links and nodes
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Sampling Procedures
• Random sampling of nodes/links
• In time or in time periods
• Markov sampling
• Markov sampling with side conditions
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Estimates – random sampling
• Link distribution
• Shortest path
• Sampling in many time periods – (N, p):
• ML estimates of p and N (Size of the terrorist population)