Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C

Impacts on theNile Delta Coastal Zones

By

Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy

Director of Coastal Research Institute (CoRI)

National Water Research Center (NWRC)

Global Perspective

Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice and ice sheets

Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year

0.8 mm/year

2.0 mm/year

Global Mean Sea Level from Tidal Gauge observations around the world

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200

0

Period Rate

Years /decade

Contribution to Sea Level by Thermal Expansion

Rate = 0.4 mm/year (1955-2004)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

MS

L (

mm

)

Year

Contribution to Sea Level by Mountain Glaciers

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

MS

L (

mm

)

Year

1961-2003: 0.5 mm/year

0

5

10

15

20

25

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

MS

L (

mm

)

Year

Sea Level Budget (IPCC-2007, mm/year)

Thermal Expansion

Mountain Glaciers

Greenland Ice Melt

Antarctic Ice Melt

Land Water Storage

Total of Observed Contributions

+

+

+

=

Observed Sea Level Change

1.6 ± 0.5

0.8 ± 0.2

0.2 ± 0.1

0.2 ± 0.3

?

2.8 ± 0.7

1993-2003 1961-2003

0.4 ± 0.1

0.5 ± 0.2

0.1 ± 0.1

0.1 ± 0.4

?

1.1 ± 0.5

3.1 ± 0.7 1.8 ± 0.5

1. According to observations and measurements, average global increase in sea level is 1-2 mm/year.

2. Mean Sea Level is projected to rise by 0.18 m to 0.59 m by 2100, But with Significant Regional Variations, IPCC 2007)

((Chappell & Shackleton, 1986Chappell & Shackleton, 1986))

Global sea-level change over the past 160,000 yearsGlobal sea-level change over the past 160,000 years

• Sea level highly variable due to natural processesSea level highly variable due to natural processes• Sea level -120 m lower and +4-6 m higher than presentSea level -120 m lower and +4-6 m higher than present

Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century according to

special report on emission reduction scenarios (SRES)

Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007

ScenarioTemperature Change (Relative to 1980-1999

°C)

Sea Level Rise (m)(Relative to 1980-1999)

CaseBest EstimateModel-based range excluding future rapid

dynamical exchange in the ice flow

Constant year 2000

concentrations

0.6Not available

B1 ScenarioA1T ScenarioB2 Scenario

A1B ScenarioA2 Scenario

A1F1 Scenario

1.82.42.42.83.44.0

0.18-0.380.20-0.450.20-0.430.21-0.480.23-0.510.26-0.59

Scenarios by Projected SLR for the Nile Delta.

Global Models

Attributed trends depend on observations not model simulated trends

Original model trend

Observations

Time

Tem

pera

ture

+ internal variability

Attributed trends depend on observations not model simulated trends

Original model trend

Observations

Scaling

Lower

Upper

Attributed trend

Time

Tem

pera

ture

+ internal variability

+ uncertainty estimate

Rain Gauge Network 1950-2000

CoRI Activities

Impact of climate changes on coastal zones was investigated by MWRI, Coastal Research Institute )CoRI( and Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands )1989-1992(

The study at that time has estimated the sea level rise impact on all the entire coastal zones of Egypt )3500 km( in terms of quality and quantity.

The study focused on the Nile Delta coast as it has been considered the most vulnerable area in the coastal zones of Egypt

The study estimated the impacts of sea level rise if water has raisin by 1m, 2m, and 3m as shown in the figure.

Egyptian Coastline15 Coastal Segments for Vulnerability Assessment Study

Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels

1m zone

2m zone

3m zone

Areas of Ecological interest in the Red Sea area

Vulnerability Analysis

Physical Mechanisms Shoreline erosion/accretion Flood frequency Directly exposed hydraulic structures : e.g. ports, commercial

facilities, fish farms Salinity intrusion

Major Impact and possible losses Water level, waves characteristics, sediment flow, salinity levels Ecological sustainability Socio-economic responses, recreational capacity, tourism Agricultural activities and drainage conditions Fresh groundwater availability

Conclusion & Recommendations (1992)

ConclusionsIf no response strategies are planned, major adverse impacts and serious

losses are expected in terms of: Deficiency in infrastructure functionality Community displacement Ecological deterioration Penetration of salt wedge Deficiency in drainage capacity

Recommendations A comprehensive national response strategyCoordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain ecosystemPreparation of integrated coastal zone management schemeRegular monitoring of vulnerable regionsFurther studies & follow up of technological developments

Vulnerable areas defined by CoRI and Delft in 1992.

Vulnerable areas defined by IPCC in 2007

Results by CoRI & Delft )1992( and IPCC )2006( are comparable

Because both studies ignored the morphological features of the

coastal zone of the Nile Delta as )coastal sand dunes and ridges( .

2

3

4

5

Abu Qir Research Station Zone

Rosetta Field Station ZoneBurullus Field Station Zone

Ras El Bar Research Station Zone

0 10 20 30 km

1

1 Institute Administration Building2 Abu Qir Research Station3 Rosetta Field Station4 Burullus Field Station5 Ras El Bar Research Station

Hydrografic and Land Profiles (Since )1971Tide Gauge Stations 19(Years Separated)Wave and Current Gauge Stations (S4DW 13)(Years Separated)Longshore Current (Litteral current )Measurement Stations (Since 1982)

Weather Station (Since 2000Separted)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION

NATIONAL WATER RESEARCH CENTER

COASTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTEGIS and Remote Sensing Unit

Shoreline Evolution at Rosetta Promontory

Shoreline 1900

Shoreline 1964

Shoreline 1971

Shoreline 1988

Shoreline 1990

Shoreline 1991

Shoreline 1996

Shoreline 2000

1900

1964

1971

1988

1990

1991

19962000

0 400 800 1000 m

(1900 to 2000)

Shoreline 1900

Shoreline 1964

Shoreline 1971

Shoreline 1988

Shoreline 1990

Shoreline 1991

Shoreline 1996

Shoreline Evolution at Burullus lake outlet

1810

2000

19351947

19641988

1909

0 400 800 1000 m

(1810 to 2000)Shoreline Evolution at Damietta

Shoreline 1911

Shoreline 1935

Shoreline 1955

Shoreline 1983

Shoreline 1991

Shoreline 1995

Shoreline 2000

Shoreline 18951935

19111895

1955

19831991

1995

2000

0 400 800 1000 m

Promontory (1895 to 2000)Shoreline Evolution East of Damietta Nile

Branch (From 1965 to 2000)

Shoreline 1982Shoreline 1992Shoreline 1990Shoreline 1991Shoreline 1992Shoreline 2000

Shoreline 1965

1982

1965

1992

19901992

20001991

0 200 400 m

Shoreline Evolution at Baltim Sea Resort(1955 to 1990)

200 400 600 800 m0

1990

1955

1988

Light House

Grand Hotel

Shoreline 1955

Shoreline 1988

Shoreline 1990

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1898

:190

9

1909

:192

2

1922

:194

2

1942

:195

5

1955

:197

1

1971

:198

1

1981

:198

3

1983

:198

7

1987

:198

8

1988

:199

0

1990

:199

1

1991

:199

4

1994

:199

6

West of Rosetta Mouth

East of Rosetta Mouth

Time Period (Year)

Shor

elin

e Re

treat

(met

er/Y

ear)

Shoreline Retreat Rate East and West Rosetta Mouth During The Past Century

Water Quality Sampling Stations (Since 1998 Separated)

WBP

5.8

AM

P 15.0

GSP

1. 0

RGP

0.0

GPP

5.0

المحطات الحقلية واألنشطة البحثية المختلفة لمعهد بحوث الشواطئ

Sediment Sampling Stations (Since )1971

Current beyond breaker zone Measurement Stations 25(Years Separated)

MWRI (Coastal Research Institute) increased its activities to define precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological

features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges)

About 200 hydrographic beach profiles along the Nile Delta

coast

Mediterranean Sea

BURULLUS

IdkuLagoon

NILE DELTA

Manzala Lagoon

Gamasa

ROSETTAPROMONTORY

DAMIETTAPROMONTORY

Port Said

Su

ez C

anal

Baltim

Burullus Lagoon

Abu QuirBay

20km0

30o 00' 30o 30' 31o 00' 31o 30' 32o 00' 32o 30'

31o 0

0'31

o 30'

32o 0

0'

Beach and backshore

DesertCoastal Dunes

Old Dunes Cultivated Land

Northern Coast Ridge

توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل

Accretion and Erosion Patterns, Nile Delta Coasts

Population of Damietta and Port Said

19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996

199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

19981997

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

Year

PopulationDamietta

Port Said

City

Population (Thousands)Increase of Population

(Thousands) %of Increase

2006200720082006/20072007/20082006/20072007/2008

Alexandria412441654238417311.7

Damietta10971112113715251.42.2

Port Said5715765885120.92

Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast.

(CoRI-2007(, First Scenario

Station

Average Annual ASLT )Cm(

Sea Level Rise )Cm(

2025

Sea Level Rise )Cm(

2050

Sea Level Rise )Cm(

2075

Sea Level Rise )Cm(

2100

Alex.0.164.08.012.016.0

Al-Burullus0.235.7511.516.2523.0

Port Said0.5313.2526.539.7553.0

Two Modules have been developed and in each module three scenarios were established

•The first scenario was established by assuming that the same rate of temperature change )0.6 ºC over the last century( will occur till 2100.

•The second scenario was established by temperature projection till 2100. Temperature change is assumed to be 1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.

•The third scenario was established by temperature projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.

Mediterranean Hydrological Factors

Area = 2.5 million km2

Max Depth = 4400 m

Ave Depth = 1500 m

Water Vol. = 3.7 million km3

Water body comprises 3 layers with different temperature and salinity profiles

• Surface layer )75-300 m depth(

• Intermediate layer )300-600 m depth(

• Lower layer )more than 600 m depth(

Mediterranean Annual Water Balance

Evaporation 4144 km3

Income

rainfall 1000 km3

River flow 230 km3

Black Sea flow 152 km3

Total Inflow 1382 km3

Deficit 2762 km3

This deficit is compensated by 40,000 m3/s from Atlantic Ocean through Gabal Tarek straight in an anti-clockwise flow as water level in eastern side of the sea is 80 cm lower than that in the ocean due to increased evaporation rates difference.

Preliminary Results

Module )1(

Business as usual

Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100,

(CoRI 2007) 20502025

2075 2100

Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta areaAccording to CoRI measurements till 2100

(Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)

Year2025205020752100

Total Area Affected

(km2)633.8691.8748.4832.7

Total % of the Nile

Delta Area2.532.573.03.33

Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase in Air Temperature (B1 Scenario(

Year2025205020752100

Temperature (ºC)0.9 1.31.81.8

ASLR at Alexandria7.0 cm16.0 cm 27 cm28 cm

ASLR at Al-Burullus8.75 cm19.5 cm32.25 cm35.0 cm

ASLR at Port Said18.12 cm39.5 cm64.3 cm72.5 cm

Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario

20502025

2075 2100

Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area According to B1 scenario till 2100

(Without Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)

Year2025205020752100

Total Area Affected (km2)

657.77521021.91058.8

Total % of the Nile Delta Area

2.633.04.14.23

Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase in Air Temperature (A1F1 Scenario(

Year

2025 205020752100

Temperature (ºC)

1.22.23.24.0

ASLR at Alexandria

13.0 )cm(34.0 )cm(55.0 )cm(72.0 )cm(

ASLR at Al-Burullus

14.75 )cm(37.5 )cm(60.30 )cm(79.0 )cm(

ASLR at Port Said

27.9 )cm(68.8 )cm(109.6 )cm(144.0 )cm(

Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario

2025 2050

2075 2100

Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario)

(With Mohammed Ali wall and zero level for lakes borders)

Year2025205020752100

Total Area Affected (km2)

701766.523482938

Total % of the Nile Delta Area

2.83.19.411.75

Final Results

Module )2(

Considering Natural and Man-made Protection Systems

Difference between Al-Manzala Lake water level and Al-Salam Canal Bank level

Section Number

Distance from the beginning of Al-Salam Canal (km zero at the Nile

Damietta Branch) (km)

Difference in Levels between the canal bank

and lake water (m)

18 3.28

2122.84

3163.21

4273.6

5383.13

6432.68

Al-Rodah (12 km) (2.84 m)

Al-Lithy (27 km) (3.6 m)

Al-Shipool (38 km) (3.13m)

Al=Atwy (8km) (3.28m)

Al-Manzala Lake Borders

West Al-Burullus Port (+1.5 m ) N

Baltim (+2.0 m) E

New Road to Kafr Al-Sheikh (+2.15) S

Brimbal Area (+1.75 m) W

West New Port (+1.5 m) - N

Baltim (+2.0 m) - E

New Road (+ 2.15 m) S

Al-Burullus Lake Borders

Mohammed Ali Sea Wall at Abu Quir Bay

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Distance along shore (Km).

Lev

el a

bove

MSL

(m

).

El M

an

sh

ia

El S

ilsila

El A

sa

fra

Sta

nly

Ibra

him

eia

Sid

i Ga

be

r

Sid

i Bis

hr

El M

on

taza

we

ste

rn b

ord

er

El K

as

ha

fa C

lub

Storm critical level

Cornish Level

Protection works

Bir

Ma

so

ud

GِAlexandria Cornish Level

Final Results

Module )2(

Considering Mohammed Ali Sea Wall and Lakes Borders

Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100,

(CoRI 2007)2025 2050

2075 2100

Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta Area According to CoRI measurements till 2100

(With Mohammed Ali wall lakes borders)

Year2025205020752100

Total Area Affected (km2)93.68134.0139.2183.8

Total % of the Nile Delta Area

0.370.540.560.74

Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario

2025 2050

2075 2100

Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (B1 scenario)

(With Mohammed Ali wall lake's borders)

Year2025205020752100

Total Area Affected (km2)118.5169.45221.83243.1

Total % of the Nile Delta Area0.450.680.890.97

Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario

2025 2050

2075 2100

Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario)

(With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders)

Year2025205020752100

Total Area Affected (km2)152.86256.27450761.4

Total % of the Nile Delta Area0.611.031.83.01

On-going Projects

Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Nile Delta Coastal Zone, Egypt, 2009-2012

Funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC)

Main ObjectiveResearch project addresses vulnerability assessment and adaptation options for potential impact of SLR in coastal zone

Case study application in Ras ElBar - Gammasa Region

Project Overview

Project ComponentsExpected OutcomesExpected Outputs

1. Regulatory Framework and Institutional Capacity

Enhanced capacity to improve resilience of coastal settlements and development infrastructure is strengthened

Output 1.1 Coastal development legislation and regulations modified (focusing on ICZM and EIA);

Output 1.2 Institutional capacity of NCZMC strengthened;

Output 1.3 Information systems established that reflect climate change impacts/research on coastal zones

Output 1.4 Budgetary planning of Shore Protection Agency enacted to reflect climate change risks;

2. On the ground measures

Innovative and environmentally friendly adaptation measures enforced within the framework of Nile Delta ICZM.

Output 2.1 Innovative adaptation pilot activities implemented to protect vulnerable coastal lagoons;

Output 2.2 Socio-economic assessment and adaptation option appraisal undertaken;

Output 2.3 Integration of climate risk assessment into the ICZM framework for the Nile Delta

3. Knowledge management

M&E framework and knowledge management system in place

Output 3.1 M&E system with measureable indicators introduced;

Output 3.2 Lessons codified and disseminated through the Adaptation Learning Mechanism (ALM)

Output 3.3 Lessons disseminated throughout Egyptian Institutions.

Main Objectives

Assess vulnerability for key infrastructures and prediction of changes in soil salinity

Survey of drainage system infrastructure; main canals, hydraulic structures ;pump stations, WWTP; and important buildings/roads

Field investigations in selective profiles for collecting data of soil and ground water properties

Results Majority of drainage infrastructures can be considered in safe zone Predicted changes in soil salinity as a result of SLR showed expand of

affected distance to reach 1 Kilometer from shoreline of the study area by year 2100

Progress in Project: Selective results Vulnerability of Drainage System Infrastructures andprojected changes in soil salinity with Expected SLR

Progress in Project: Selective results

Impact of SLR on Groundwater and Salinity Intrusion

Main objectivePredict changes in salt intrusion and elevation in groundwater levels

Results Potential advancement of saltwater/freshwater interface and groundwater rise for SLR scenarios in years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100

Vulnerability analysis that highlighted spots with low resilience capacity and hence need for special attention

Mitigation strategy with alternative policies for adaptation to be considered within the study area

Predicted Movement of Salinewater/Freshwater interface

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Ele

vati

on

(m)

Distance (m)

Land Level

Ground Water

Saline/Fresh Interface

Sea Level (SLR)

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Ele

vati

on

(m)

Distance (m)

Land Level

Ground Water

Saline/Fresh Interface

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000E

leva

tio

n (m

)

Distance (m)

Land Level

Ground Water

Saline/Fresh Interface

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Ele

vati

on

(m)

Distance (m)

Land Level

Ground Water

Saline/Fresh Interface

2025

2050

2075

2100

Expected GW depths in 2100 due to SLR

(-10)

(-5) (-1) (0)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1.25)

(1)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5) (1.75)

(1.75)

(1.75)

(1.75)

(1.75)

(1.75) (1.75)

(1.75)

(1.75)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2) (2)

(2)

(2) (2)

(2)

(2)

Vulnerability assessmentRegions of concern

spots more susceptible to water logging as a result of land level , soil properties and GW depth

Changes in Wave Climate and Sediment Transport

Main Objectives

Check the effect of global warming in wave climate and sediment transport in front of the Nile delta coast

Follow the effect of changes in bed morphology on wave characteristics and sediment transport

Process

Measurements of wave data in years1998 and 2010

Simulation of wave distribution using ImSedTran-2D model

Simulation of sediment transport using GENESIS

0

10

20

30

40

50

N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW

Perc

enta

ge o

f Occ

urre

nce

)%(

Direction

< 3 m

2 To< 3 m

1.5 To< 2 m

1 To< 1.5 m

0.5 To< 1 m

0 To< 0.5 m

Wave height

Changes in Wave Climate

Changes in Wave Characteristics

Changes in Wave Climate

Wave Climate19982010

Significant wave height 0.94 m1.31 m

Average wave height 0.5 m0.76 m

Predominant wave direction North NorthWest )NNW(

NorthWest )NW(

Average storm height 2.75 m2.46 m

Total duration of storms1.6 day/year3.5 day/year

predominant storm direction NorthNorthWest

Changes in Sediment Transport

Locationgross sediment transport rate

Gamassa to Damietta harbor 348000 m3/year

east of Damietta harbor1342000 m3/year

west of the Damietta harborno noticeable change in sediment transport

Regular Gathering with Civil Society Stakeholders & local community categories

In cooperation with the project partners, CoRI rganizes and hold meeting with civil society stakeholders and various categories of the community in the study area for:

Raising awareness Encourage involvementGuaranteed advocacy and cooperation from their part

in upcoming stagesConsultation for optimized adaptation policies

Positions of the surveyed beach profiles analyzed in this study

Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline change Locationlong-term changeShort-term change

Damietta Promontory between profiles P41 and P47

Emotional processes )-38.2 m/year(

Erosion along Damietta promontory tip has been terminated as a result of the construction of the 6-km long seawall in 1996-2002

East of Damietta Promontory )The Damietta spit (.

No spit Accretion with a rate )3 m/year( and formation of the spit .

Ras El Bar BeachErosion with a rate )-7.7 m/year(

Accretion with a rate )15 m/year( due to building eight detached breakwaters.

Significance Short-term and long-term shoreline change

Locationlong-term changeShort-term change

East of Damietta harborNo erosionA maximum rate of erosion -13 m/year

West of Damietta harbor Erosion with a rate )5 m/year(.

Accretion with a rate )15m/year(.

Gamasa EmbaymentAccretion with a maximum rate of 20m/year.

The maximum rate of accretion become 16 m/year Erosion appears east of Gamasa drain with a rate) -9 m/year and -4 m/year(

Continuity & Application GEF project

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nile Delta through Integrated Coastal Zone Management

Global Environment Facility

GoalEnhance Egypt’s resilience and reduce vulnerability to

Climate Change impacts through ICZM in context of CC

Adaptation Assessment

Adaptation Supporting Systems

Adaptive Supporting Systems

According to IPCC summary report for decision makers, Nov. 2007, it is recommended to create wetlands in areas vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying deltas. )Al-Manzalla, Al-Burullus, Idku, and Maryot Lakes are one of the natural adaptation processes(.

Protection constructions carried out by Shore Protection Authority )SPA( )Damietta, Rosetta, and Al-Burullus(.

Natural sand dunes systems

Mohammed Ali Wall which protects low lands at Abu-Quir Bay in the western region of the Nile Delta.

•Resources and capacities of Coastal Research Institute )CoRI( built since 1971 and other related-research institutions in Egypt.

•The international road could act as the second defensive line to protect north zone of the country. In this concern, it should be mentioned that UNDP in 1992 had a roundtable meeting about considering the road as a mitigation measure against the impact of sea level rise.

•Al-Salam Canal goes by Al-Manzalla Lake and its banks have levels more that two meters above lake's water level. Aerial-photos used in the study do not consider the canal as they were established before its construction.

Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road

International coastal road

Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast and coastal protection works

Sand Dunes At the West Side of Rosseta

Region

Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low Lands )1.5m - 2.5m Below Sea Level(

على محمد حائط

Abu Quir Bay

Low Lands (1.5 – 2.5 m Below Sea Level)

Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall

Muhammed Ali Sea Wall

Ras Al Bar

Ras Al-Bar Resort Under Sea Attack Before the Construction of Protection

Works

Detached Breakwater

Ras Al-Bar Resort Has Gained Lands After the Construction of Protection Works

Adaptation Process and Policies

Sand dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line for the Nile Delta.

Decision makers in coastal governorates as well as concerned ministers should be aware of the importance of sand dunes systems and their role in protecting the coastal zone of the Nile Delta.

Consideration should be paid to coastal lakes as one of the most appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise.

Coastal international road should be considered as the second protection measure and studies to support it are urgently required.

Coastal protection constructions need regular maintenance and should be considered in any coastal zone management plans.

The northwest coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian-Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.

Recommendations Capacity building in terms of staff, technologies, modeling, ….etc. A comprehensive national and regional response strategy Coordinative actions to minimize risks and maintain ecosystem Preparation of integrated coastal zone management scheme Research budget and funds should be increased to cope with the

national and international crisis regarding climate change and its impacts and adaptation studies.

Building co-operative mechanizm to integrate all efforts Awareness program and media campaign Regional monitoring and observation system Regional data base and knowledge exchange system Regular Maintenance program for protection structures The following aspects are recommended to be covered in further

studies for the coastal zones: Potential impacts on land and groundwater salinity Potential impacts on patterns of waves and currents

Potential impacts on erosion and accretion systems due to currents, waves, and wind actions

Potential impacts on lakes ecosystems Potential impacts on water resources and drainage

systems Potential impacts on fisheries due to changes

expected in current patterns Potential impacts on infrastructures and natural

resources of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta Potential impacts of climate changes on evaporation

from oceans and seas open waters and their role in reducing SLR

Potential impacts of temperature increase on phyto-plankton role in absorbing CO2 and generating A2.

Thank You All