vtra 2015 km -348 case and vtra 2015 base case comparisondorpjr/vtra_2015... · vessel traffic risk...

VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015

7/30/2016 1 GW-VCU : DRAFT

VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparison

Jason R.W. Merrick (VCU) and J. Rene van Dorp (GW)

August 9th – 10th, 2016

Draft


7/30/2016 2

VTRA 2015 Study Area

GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

6 5

7

8

9

15

4 3

1

2 13

10

11

14

12

1. Buoy J 2. ATBA 3. WSJF 4. ESJF 5. Rosario 6. Guemes 7. Saddlebag 8. Georgia Str.

9. Haro/Boun. 10. PS North 11. PS South 12. Tacoma 13. Sar/Skagit 14. SJ Islands 15. Southern Gulf Islands

VTRA 2015 Waterway Zones

DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES

Draft


7/30/2016 4 GW-VCU : DRAFT

VTRA 2015 Routes for What-If Case: KM - 348

CASE KM 348 VTRA 2015 Updated Case KM 348Tankers 348

Bunkering Support 17TOTAL WHAT-IF FOCUS VESSELS 365

Draft


7/30/2016 5 GW-VCU : DRAFT

5% 5% 5%

90% 90% 90%

0 4 1 3

2 6 10

8 5 7 12 9 11 T1 T2 T3

VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days) VTRA 2015 Random Arrival Pattern ( 3 Random Times in 12 days)

VTRA 2015 – What If FV Scheduled Random Arrival Pattern Model

(See Example Graph below) Draft


By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison

Oil Spill Size Category: ALL SPILL SIZES

Draft


7/30/2016 7 GW-VCU : DRAFT

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL

OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY

ALL SPILL SIZES

VTRA ‘15 Case: BASE CASE

Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft


7/30/2016 8 GW-VCU : DRAFT

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL

OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY

ALL SPILL SIZES

VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348

Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft

VTRA '15: Base Case 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.C+G+A.Oil Loss: 100% of Base Case POL

23-24 22-23

21-22 20-21

19-20 18-19

17-18 16-17

15-16 14-15

13-14 12-13

11-12 10-11

9-10 8-9

7-8 6-7

5-6 4-5

3-4 2-3

1-2 0-1


7/30/2016 9 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

VTRA '15: KM-348 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.C+G+A.Oil Loss: 121% of Base Case POL

23-24 22-23

21-22 20-21

19-20 18-19

17-18 16-17

15-16 14-15

13-14 12-13

11-12 10-11

9-10 8-9

7-8 6-7

5-6 4-5

3-4 2-3

1-2 0-1


7/30/2016 10 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

0.1%

0.1%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

3.9%

4.7%

6.3%

8.9%

10.6%

10.8%

11.0%

11.5%

14.2%

16.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

1.6%

4.5%

6.6%

7.3%

15.8%

10.6%

10.8%

10.4%

11.2%

28.9%

12.1%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.01Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.05

SJ Islands : 0.0% | x 0.93Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.96

Buoy J : +0.9% | x 2.48Georgia Str. : +0.6% | x 1.17

WSJF : +1.9% | x 1.40Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : +1.0% | x 1.16

ESJF : +6.9% | x 1.78PS North : 0.0% | x 1.00

Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 1.00Rosario : -0.6% | x 0.94

PS South : -0.3% | x 0.98Haro/Boun. : +14.8% | x 2.04

Guemes : -3.9% | x 0.76

% Base Case Pot. Oil (C+G+A) Loss (OL) - ALL_FV

% Base Case Pot. Oil (C + G + A) Loss - ALL_FV

VTRA '15: KM-348 : 121% ( +21.2% | x 1.21) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100%


7/30/2016 11 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.9%

1.1%

1.3%

2.3%

3.0%

3.6%

3.7%

7.3%

7.8%

10.3%

13.3%

44.9%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.9%

1.2%

1.5%

2.3%

3.2%

3.6%

3.8%

7.3%

8.5%

10.8%

13.1%

44.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.04

Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.10Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.02SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.09

Rosario : +0.2% | x 1.14Tac. South : 0.0% | x 1.00

ESJF : +0.2% | x 1.06Georgia Str. : +0.0% | x 1.00

WSJF : +0.2% | x 1.04PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00

Haro/Boun. : +0.6% | x 1.08Guemes : +0.6% | x 1.05

Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.1% | x 0.99PS South : -0.7% | x 0.99

% Base Case Pot. Accident Freq. (AF) - ALL_FV

% Base Case Pot. Accident (C+G+A) Frequency - ALL_FV

VTRA '15: KM-348 : 101% ( +1.1% | x 1.01) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100%


7/30/2016 12 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft


Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 m3 or more

By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft


7/30/2016 14 GW-VCU : DRAFT

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL

ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS

WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more

≈ 0.50% Probability of Spill Occurrence

in 10 years

Average of ≈ 6,798 m3

Per Potential Spill (≈ 5,846 Metric. Tons)

VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE

Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3 Draft


7/30/2016 15 GW-VCU : DRAFT



WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more


in 10 years


Per Potential Spill (≈ 4,102 Metric Tons)

Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3


Draft

0.0003%

0.0033%

0.0006%

0.0009%

0.0031%

0.0048%

0.0259%

0.0223%

0.0308%

0.0311%

0.0287%

0.0516%

0.0815%

0.1075%

0.1064%

0.0004%

0.0044%

0.0006%

0.0008%

0.0283%

0.0143%

0.0392%

0.0445%

0.0309%

0.0301%

0.2699%

0.2373%

0.0824%

0.1026%

0.087%

0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30%

Sar/Skagit : +0.00% | x 1.19SJ Islands : +0.00% | x 1.34

ATBA : +0.00% | x 1.04Tac. South : 0.00% | x 0.88

Sthrn. Glf. Ils. : +0.03% | x 9.01Buoy J : +0.01% | x 2.98

Georgia Str. : +0.01% | x 1.51WSJF : +0.02% | x 2.00

PS North : +0.00% | x 1.01PS South : 0.00% | x 0.97

Haro/Boun. : +0.24% | x 9.39ESJF : +0.19% | x 4.60

Saddlebag : +0.00% | x 1.01Rosario : 0.00% | x 0.95

Guemes : -0.02% | x 0.82

Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years

Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more

VTRA '15: KM-348 : 0.97% ( +0.47% | x 1.95) VTRA '15: Base Case : 0.50%


7/30/2016 16 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

5,688

9,556

9,066

6,715

4,676

5,873

6,694

6,721

4,974

5,956

4,589

6,240

7,161

6,812

8,198

5,597

6,172

8,817

5,409

3,480

6,933

5,651

6,088

4,983

5,917

3,433

3,423

6,993

6,836

6,465

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Sar/Skagit : -91.1 | x 0.98SJ Islands : -3383.5 | x 0.65

ATBA : -249.1 | x 0.97Tac. South : -+1305.7 | x 0.81

Sthrn. Glf. Ils. : -1196.2 | x 0.74Buoy J : +1059.3 | x 1.18

Georgia Str. : -1042.9 | x 0.84WSJF : -633.5 | x 0.91

PS North : +8.9 | x 1.00PS South : -39.0 | x 0.99

Haro/Boun. : -1156.0 | x 0.75ESJF : -2816.9 | x 0.55

Saddlebag : -167.9 | x 0.98Rosario : +23.9 | x 1.00

Guemes : -1733.7 | x 0.79

Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident

Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more

VTRA '15: KM-348 : 4770 m3 ( -2028.5 | x 0.70) VTRA '15: Base Case : 6798 m3


7/30/2016 17 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft


Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 m3 - 2500 m3



7/30/2016 19 GW-VCU : DRAFT



WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3


in 10 years




Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3 Draft


7/30/2016 20 GW-VCU : DRAFT



WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3


in 10 years



Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3


Draft

0.0003%

0.0038%

0.0003%

0.0013%

0.0177%

0.0038%

0.0279%

0.0201%

0.0609%

0.0348%

0.0670%

0.0516%

0.1302%

0.0486%

0.1429%

0.0003%

0.0041%

0.0003%

0.0013%

0.0214%

0.0058%

0.0316%

0.0345%

0.0606%

0.0344%

0.2455%

0.0633%

0.1357%

0.0472%

0.1493%

0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30%


ATBA : 0.00% | x 0.92Tac. South : 0.00% | x 1.00

Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : +0.00% | x 1.21Buoy J : +0.00% | x 1.50


PS North : 0.00% | x 1.00PS South : 0.00% | x 0.99

Haro/Boun. : +0.18% | x 3.66ESJF : +0.01% | x 1.23

Saddlebag : +0.01% | x 1.04Rosario : 0.00% | x 0.97

Guemes : +0.01% | x 1.05


Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3



7/30/2016 21 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

1,389

1,294

1,562

1,246

1,625

1,641

1,599

1,603

1,398

1,464

1,443

1,462

1,793

1,717

1,715

1,451

1,314

1,616

1,246

1,716

1,654

1,602

1,754

1,398

1,469

1,830

1,561

1,782

1,733

1,706

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Sar/Skagit : +62.8 | x 1.05SJ Islands : +20.0 | x 1.02

ATBA : +54.0 | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0 | x 1.00

Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : +90.5 | x 1.06Buoy J : +12.8 | x 1.01

Georgia Str. : +3.7 | x 1.00WSJF : +150.9 | x 1.09PS North : -0.3 | x 1.00

PS South : +4.9 | x 1.00Haro/Boun. : +387.0 | x 1.27

ESJF : +99.5 | x 1.07Saddlebag : -10.8 | x 0.99

Rosario : +15.7 | x 1.01Guemes : -9.2 | x 0.99


Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident - ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3

VTRA '15: KM-348 : 1708 m3 ( +89.5 | x 1.06) VTRA '15: Base Case : 1619 m3


7/30/2016 22 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

Average of ≈ 47 m3

Per Potential Spill (≈ 295 Barrels)


7/30/2016 24 GW-VCU : DRAFT

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL

POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS

WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3


in 10 years

Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3


Draft

Average of ≈ 47 m3

Per Potential Spill (≈ 298 Barrels)


7/30/2016 25 GW-VCU : DRAFT





in 10 years

Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3


Draft

0.1%

0.4%

0.0%

2.3%

11.4%

0.2%

2.6%

2.0%

5.5%

30.0%

8.3%

3.0%

0.6%

0.9%

3.6%

0.1%

0.4%

0.0%

2.4%

11.3%

0.2%

2.4%

2.0%

5.6%

29.4%

8.5%

3.1%

0.6%

1.0%

3.9%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%


ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.01

Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.1% | x 0.99Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.03

Georgia Str. : -0.2% | x 0.93WSJF : +0.0% | x 1.01

PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00PS South : -0.6% | x 0.98

Haro/Boun. : +0.2% | x 1.02ESJF : +0.0% | x 1.01

Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.03Rosario : +0.2% | x 1.22Guemes : +0.4% | x 1.10


Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3

VTRA '15: KM-348 : 54.0% ( -0.2% | x 1.00) VTRA '15: Base Case : 54.1%


7/30/2016 26 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

Average of ≈ 0.01 m3

Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.3 gallons)


7/30/2016 29 GW-VCU : DRAFT




≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence

in 10 years


Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3 Draft


Per Potential Spill ( ≈ 2.4 gallons)


7/30/2016 30 GW-VCU : DRAFT


in 10 years

Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3





Draft


Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.3 gallons)


7/30/2016 31 GW-VCU : DRAFT


in 10 years

Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3




VTRA ‘15 Case: BASE CASE

Draft


Per Potential Spill (= 2.2 gallons)


7/30/2016 32 GW-VCU : DRAFT


in 10 years

Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3





Draft

7%

39%

1%

62%

100%

16%

79%

80%

96%

100%

97%

73%

33%

43%

99%

7%

42%

1%

62%

100%

17%

79%

81%

96%

100%

97%

75%

34%

47%

99%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%


ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : -0.1% | x 1.00

Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : 0.0% | x 1.00Buoy J : +1.5% | x 1.09


PS North : +0.1% | x 1.00PS South : 0.0% | x 1.00

Haro/Boun. : +0.8% | x 1.01ESJF : +2.1% | x 1.03

Saddlebag : +0.6% | x 1.02Rosario : +4.4% | x 1.10Guemes : +0.2% | x 1.00


Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons



7/30/2016 33 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft

0.7

3.9

0.1

1.1

0.7

1.9

1.4

0.6

1.1

0.3

4.2

2.1

5.8

23.0

10.4

1.0

2.7

0.1

1.1

0.7

1.4

1.5

0.6

1.3

0.3

4.6

1.7

6.5

21.4

8.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Sar/Skagit : +0.3 | x 1.37SJ Islands : -1.2 | x 0.68

ATBA : 0.0 | x 0.97Tac. South : +0.0 | x 1.00

Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : +0.0 | x 1.06Buoy J : -0.4 | x 0.77

Georgia Str. : +0.0 | x 1.03WSJF : 0.0 | x 1.00

PS North : +0.2 | x 1.17PS South : +0.0 | x 1.01

Haro/Boun. : +0.4 | x 1.08ESJF : -0.4 | x 0.80

Saddlebag : +0.7 | x 1.12Rosario : -1.6 | x 0.93Guemes : -1.6 | x 0.84

Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident

Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons

VTRA '15: KM-348 : 2.2 gallons ( -0.1 | x 0.97) VTRA '15: Base Case : 2.3 gallons


7/30/2016 34 GW-VCU : DRAFT

Draft


Oil Spill Size Category: All Spill Sizes

Summary Risk Comparison Draft

OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 TOTAL_OIL

Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 42.0% 12.3% 45.3% 0.5% 100.0%

Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.01% 0.01% 1.8% 98.2% 100.0%

Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 6,798 1,619 46.9 0.01 1.8

Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.05% 0.06% 7.5% 98.7% 98.8%

Probability of at least one accident in 10 year by spill size 0.50% 0.61% 54.2% 100.0% 100.0%

Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 1.24% 1.52% 85.8% 100.0% 100.0%

OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 TOTAL_OIL

Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 57.5% ( +15.46%| x1.37 ) 17.7% ( +5.42%| x1.44 ) 45.6% ( +0.31%| x1.01 ) 0.5% ( -0.01%| x0.98 ) 121.2% ( +21.2%| x1.21 )

Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.02% ( +0.01%| x1.95 ) 0.02% ( +0.01%| x1.37 ) 1.8% ( -0.01%| x1.00 ) 99.3% ( +1.1%| x1.01 ) 101.1% ( +1.1%| x1.01 )

Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 4771 ( -2028 | x0.70 ) 1708 ( +89 | x1.06 ) 47.4 ( +0.5 | x1.01 ) 0.01 ( 0.00 | x0.97 ) 2.2 ( +0.4 | x1.20 )

Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.10% ( +0.05%| x1.95 ) 0.08% ( +0.02%| x1.37 ) 7.5% ( -0.03%| x1.00 ) 98.8% ( +0.06% | x1.00 ) 98.9% ( +0.06%| x1.00 )

Probability of at least one accident in 10 year by spill size 0.97% ( +0.47%| x1.95 ) 0.83% ( +0.22%| x1.36 ) 54.1% ( -0.15%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 )

Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 2.41% ( +1.16%| x1.94 ) 2.07% ( +0.55%| x1.36 ) 85.7% ( -0.12%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 )

VTRA

'15

BASE

CAS

EVT

RA '1

5 KM

- 34

8VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015

Summary Risk Comparison

Draft

vtra 2015 km -348 case and vtra 2015 base case comparisondorpjr/vtra_2015... · vessel traffic risk...

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