Volume 26, No. 3 Spring 2008

Irecently noticed the passing of Dr. Joseph Juran at theage of 103. Although I never met Dr. Juran, I read anumber of his books from cover to cover and came to

view Joe as one of the “vital few” leaders in the field ofquality management. In fact, many of the ideas hedeveloped and promoted over his working career areembedded in every continuous improvement program inexistence today.

Joe started his career in 1924 at the sprawling Western Electric HawthorneWorks facility (http://www.morton.edu/museum/index.html) in Illinois. Onecan only imagine the challenges associated with running a plantencompassing 5-million square feet and 40,000 employees. Walter Shewhartand Joseph Juran both walked through its doors and used the facility as aplace to pilot new quality control practices and principles. Western Electricemployees were some of the first to use control charts and visual inspectiontechniques to detect and correct manufacturing defects.

During the 1920s, the Hawthorne Works facility was also the site of humanbehavior studies. Although some disagreement remains about what exactly

What time is it? It’s time for some hockey! As the Stanley Cup season enters full swing, orshould I say full body check, we have a terrific design of experiments Mini Paper foryour reading pleasure. Mark Anderson describes an in-class experiment that illustrates

the power of two-level factorial design. As a bonus you can learn how to shoot a wicked slap shot!The Leadership Committee decided that this would be a good time to launch an updated

Statistics Division newsletter. The change was made to improve the look and functionality of thenewsletter. The electronic version of the newsletter takes advantage of browser technology with aQuick Links table of contents (TOC) and Return Home buttons following each article. We think youwill like it.

Stop the presses . . . this edition of the newsletter will be my last as Newsletter Editor. When I picked up the mantlein 2005, membership was under 5,200. Today our membership exceeds 5,500. I think we are doing fairly wellconsidering the general drop in professional organization membership and the increased competition we areexperiencing from newer divisions. I look forward to continuing my work with the Division in the future as we growour membership to 6,000 by 2010. I hope you enjoyed Volume 23, No. 3 through Volume 26 of the Statistics DivisionNewsletter.

Chair’s Messageby Doug Hlavacek

Editor’s Cornerby Brian Sersion

Link to page 3

Division Chair’s Message . . . . . . . . . . 1

Editor’s Corner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

The Return of the How To ... Series . . . 3

Essay Contest: Dr. Deming and Me . . . 4

Hunter Award Nominations. . . . . . . . 4

Mini Paper: Tabletop Hockey Meets Goals for Teaching ExperimentalDesign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Blast from the Past - 1988 NewsletterArticle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

52nd Annual FTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

In Case You Missed It . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Treasurer’s Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Committee Roster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

In This Issue

2

Criteria forBasic Tools and

Mini PaperColumns

Basic ToolsPurpose: To inform/teach the “qualitypractitioner” about useful techniques thatcan be easily understood, applied andexplained to others.

Criteria:1. Application oriented/not theory2. Non-technical in nature3. Techniques that can be understood

andapplied by non-statisticians.

4. Approximately five pages or less inlength (8 1/2” x 11” typewritten,single spaced.)

5. Should be presented in “how to use it”fashion.

6. Should include applicable examples.

Possible Topics:New SPC techniquesGraphical techniquesStatistical thinking principles“Rehash” established methods

Mini-PaperPurpose: To provide insight intoapplication-oriented techniques ofsignificant value to quality professionals.

Criteria:1. Application oriented.2. More technical than Basic Tools, but

contains no mathematical derivations.3. Focus is on insight into why a

technique is of value.4. Approximately six to eight pages or less

in length (8 1/2” x 11” typewritten,single spaced.)Longer articles may be submitted andpublished in two parts.

5. Not overly controversial.6. Should include applicable examples.

General InformationAuthors should have a conceptual

understanding of the topic and should bewilling to answer questions relating to thearticle through the newsletter. Authors donot have to be members of the StatisticsDivision.

Submissions may be made at any timeto the Statistics Division Newsletter Editor.All articles will be reviewed. The editorreserves discretionary right indetermination of which articles arepublished.

Acceptance of articles does not implyany agreement that a given article will bepublished.

VISION• Data Driven Decisions Through Statistical Thinking• We are the recognized forum that advances data-driven decision making through Statistical Thinking.

MISSION• Advance data-driven decision making through Statistical Thinking.• Improve the public’s perception and understanding of statistical methods and data-driven decisions.• Be the source for the statistical components of the ASQ body of knowledge.• Support the growth and development of ASQ Statistics Division members.• Increase the credibility, marketability and influence of ASQ Statistics Division members.

STRATEGIC FOCUS1. BODY OF KNOWLEDGE

• What it is?• Where is it?• How to categorize it?• Disseminate via Web page• Keep current• Partner with HQ• Goals to understand, organize, make accessible,

inventory, gap analysis

2. COMMUNICATION• Newsletter• E-Zines• Align both to vision and mission• Gap analysis with primary audiences• Discussion boards• Promote via E-Zine, conference booths• Align discussion boards to vision and mission• Evaluate whether to continue

3. VOICE OF THE CUSTOMER• Members, other divisions, audiences• Proactive way to engage (go, see listen)

4. DATA DRIVEN DECISIONS• How do we advance?• Do we broaden the audience?• AQC session?• Partnerships?

DESIRED END STATE• Our members will be proud to be part of the Statistics Division.• Our Division’s operations will be a model for other organizations.• We will be a widely influential authority on scientific approaches to quality and productivity improvement.

PRINCIPLES• Our customers’ needs will be continuously anticipated and met (i.e. Customer focused rather than

customer driven).• Our market focus for products and services is weighted as follows:

• Greatest weight on intermediate level.• Nearly as much weight on basic level.• Much less weight on advanced level.

• Focus on a few key things.• Balance short-term and long-term efforts.• Value diversity (including geographical and occupational) of our membership.• Be proactive.• Recognize that we exist for our customers.• View statistics from the broad perspective of quality management.• Apply Statistical Thinking ourselves; that is, practice what we preach.• Uphold professional ethics.• Continuously improve.

MEETING GROUND RULES• Respect and listen to all participants.• No speeches.• No “side-bar” discussions.• Decisions by consensus, if possible.• We will be open and honest, even if it hurts.• Support your ideas, don’t defend them.• We will delegate word-smithing to small groups.• All help facilitate, although we will have a formal leader, facilitator, scribe, and timekeeper (including at

breakouts).• We will rotate scribes.• We will keep a separate flipchart for To-Do’s.• Mission, Vision, Principles, Strategy, Ground Rules should be visible.

DisclaimerThe technical content of material published in the ASQ Statistics Division Newsletter may not have been refereed to the same extent as the rigorous refereeing that isundergone for publication in Technometrics or J.Q.T. The objective of this newsletter is to be a forum for new ideas and to be open to differing points of view. Theeditor will strive to review all articles and to ask other statistics professionals to provide reviews of all content of this newsletter. We encourage readers with differingpoints of view to write to the editor and request an opportunity to present their views via a letter to the editor. The views expressed in material published in thisnewsletter represents the views of the author of the material, and may or may not represent the official views of the Statistics Division of ASQ.

Strategy

Prin

cipl

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Prin

cipl

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Vision

Mission

Strategy

Strategy

Strategy

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Strategy

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Since 1978, the Statistics Division has championed acollection of manuals that provide in-depth informationabout specific statistical techniques and methods. Thesemanuals are part of the How To . . . Series. Several well-known ASQ members have written to the Divisionasking for these publications over the years. While thereare more titles in the series than listed below, a limitednumber of original manuals are still available.

• How to Analyze Data with Simple Plots (75 boundcopies)

• How to Run Mixture Experiments for Product Quality(35 bound)

• How and When to Perform Bayesian AcceptanceSampling (257 bound and e-Book)

• How to Apply Response Surface Methodology (309bound)

• How to Use Regression Analysis in Quality Control(232 bound)

• How to Choose the Proper Sample Size (97 bound)

• How to Use Sequential Statistical Methods (15 bound)

• How to Construct Fractional Factorial Experiments(417 bound)

Some of the manuals are still available through ASQPress. As a service to our members, we are working withASQ to create a single source Web page for orderingHow To . . . Series manuals. For those of you who can’twait, the following URL is a good place to start:http://www.asq.org/quality-press/search-results/index.html?search_mode=New. In the future, thetitles will only be available through PDF file download.Electronic versions of the documents will be generatedby scanning the hard copies, since the originals wereproduced using plate technology. Please take advantageof this opportunity because as they say; once they aregone, they are gone (at least in original boundpublication).

Chair’s Message(continued from page 1)

The Return of theHow To … Seriesby Steve Schuelkathese studies revealed beyond the infamous “Hawthorne

Effect,” the studies did set the stage for a change in howworkers were managed. Workers it would seem weremotivated to work by more than their own self interests.Social group dynamics, human relations and leadershipall played a role in worker productivity.

I don’t know if Dr. Juran followed the HawthorneWorks behavioral studies. But it is interesting to notethat in spite of quality management’s deep statisticalroots, Joe decided to incorporate the human elementinto his quality management philosophy. Anorganization would never realize its full potential unlessit was able to identify and subsequently solve qualityproblems in a systematic fashion. To do so required theengagement of management in order to overcome anorganization’s natural resistance to change.

Dr. Juran was often taking ideas from other areas andapplying them to the field of quality management. AnItalian economist, Vilfredo Pareto, recognized that asociety’s wealth was not evenly distributed among itsindividuals. Pareto advanced the theory that alogarithmic law of income distribution could be appliedsince a large portion of the wealth was owned by a smallpercentage of people. Joe was the first to realize thisphenomenon was universally applicable to many fields.The principle of the “vital few and trivial many” wasborn and forever changed the world of quality. The80/20 rule has been used countless times to focus finiteresources on the vital few causes or vital few projects forgreater gains and impact.

Dr. Juran also recognized that while statistics andproblem-solving skills were superb tools, the ability tocommunicate in multiple languages was a necessity. InJuran’s Quality Control Handbook, Joe believed at leasttwo languages were spoken in every organization.Lower levels of an organization spoke in terms of thelanguage of things (that is, units produced, BTUsconsumed, complaints received, etc.) while the upperlevel spoke in the language of money (that is, sales,expenses, return on investment, etc.). Middle levelmanagers and professionals needed to be fluent in bothlanguages.

Look at any continuous improvement program andyou will see Dr. Juran’s legacy. Quality improvementcannot occur without management support, anorganization needs to focus its resources on those vitalfew projects, and successful projects are the ones able totranslate the language of things into the language ofmoney. Joe lived through a century of profound changeand ultimately had a hand in creating change by greatlyadvancing the science of quality management.

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Dr. Deming and Meby Peter Bartell

It was March 1992. I was a newly minted MS graduatein Applied Mathematics and Statistics from RochesterInstitute of Technology. I was ready to take on the worldat Eastman Kodak Company, which, at that time, waswell known for its world class industrial statisticsdepartment. Looking back from today, I had a pretty selfinflated opinion of my skills and talents as a statistician.My boss asked if I wanted to attend Dr. Deming’supcoming 4 day seminar here in Rochester. I didn’t reallyknow what to expect. I had heard a little about Deming(mostly how ‘boring’ his tapes were) from some of mygrad school instructors. But the chance to see and hearone of the founding fathers was too good to pass up,especially if it was free. So I accepted the invitation.

I had heard Dr. Deming didn’t lecture in the traditionalstyle. He taught using a variation of the Socratic method… ask questions so people self discover the answer. Dr.Deming began the seminar asking the assembled throng,I’m guessing over 500 people, ‘Why are you in business?’.I had also been advised, “Never go up to a microphoneand answer him…you’ll be crushed.” Some other poorsoul took the plunge and responded, “We’re in businessto make money, to earn profits.” Dr. Deming responded,“Those of you who are in business to make money, toearn profits, at the expense of customers, will soonenough have neither of both.” It was at that moment Iknew I was in trouble.

By the end of the fourth day, after observing the RedBead exercise, thinking about The System of ProfoundKnowledge, discussing The Funnel exercise, The 14Points, The Seven Deadly Diseases, and internalizing someof his key phrases, “Best efforts are not enough; The mostimportant figures are unknown and unknowable; Everysystem is perfectly designed to deliver the results that areobserved; Why must we manage in this way?” It wasstunningly apparent we didn’t understand Dr. Deming’snotions in the least at my company, much less followthem. And more importantly nor did I. I had so much tolearn. I now knew I was only beginning my education,much less practice, in quality. While I never heard Dr.Deming say it, I can imagine him saying something akintoo, “Statistical methods are not enough.”

To that end I’ve been on a journey in my work atKodak and in life. Now my days are consumed trying todrive out fear, apply the System of Profound Knowledge,teach others so as to teach themselves, get people toNOT react to common cause variation, and continuouslyimprove myself and the systems within which I work andlive. Occasionally, I’m asked to do hard statistics work …but the things Dr. Deming taught me are where the bigbenefits lie for my company, my coworkers, my family,my friends, come to think of it, the system I’m living in.

NOMINATIONS SOUGHT FORWILLIAM G. HUNTER AWARDby Robert H. Mitchell

The ASQ Statistics Division’s William G. Hunter AwardCommittee is pleased to solicit nominations for 2008.

William G. Hunter was the founding chair of theStatistics Division of the American Society for QualityControl (now American Society for Quality). Hisleadership as a communicator, consultant, educator, andinnovator, and his ability to integrate statistical thinkinginto many disciplines serve as exemplary models for theDivision’s members and beyond.

ObjectiveThe Statistics Division established

the William G. Hunter Award in 1987to encourage and promoteoutstanding accomplishments duringa career in the broad field of appliedstatistics, and to recognizepractitioners who get results.

QualificationsAny outstanding leader in the field of applied statistics,

regardless of ASQ Statistics Division membership status, isqualified. Candidates must have demonstrated a highlevel of professionalism, significant contributions to thefield, and a history of inspirational leadership. A personmay be nominated many times but may win the awardonly once.

ProcedureThe nominator must have the permission of the

person being nominated and letters from at least twoother people supporting the nomination. Claims ofaccomplishments must be supported with objectiveevidence. Examples include publication lists and lettersfrom peers.

Nominations for the current year will be accepteduntil June 30. Nominations received after July 1 may beconsidered for the current year — if not, they will beheld until the following year. A committee of past leadersof the Statistics Division and awardees selects the winner.The award is presented at the Fall Technical Conferencein October. Award criteria and nomination forms canbe downloaded from the Awards page of the DivisionWeb site (http://www.asqstatdiv.org/awards.htm) ormay be obtained by contacting Robert H. Mitchell: Bldg225-03-S-13, 3M Center, 3M Company, Maplewood,MN 55144-1000; 651.736-8684 (Office); 651.733-8275(Fax); rhmitchell@mmm.com.

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MINI PAPERTabletop Hockey Meets Goals for Teaching Experimental Design

Link to page 6

Mark J. Anderson**Principal of Stat-Ease, Inc, 2021 E. Hennepin, #480, Minneapolis, MN 55413

E-mail: mark@statease.com

IntroductionDesign of experiments (DOE) is an essential tool for

product and process improvement. Good software nowmakes the set up and analysis of DOE’s very easy, but thetypical engineer or scientist remains intimidated bystatistical outputs. For that reason, education on DOE is anecessity for non-statisticians. Ideally the DOE training isprovided on a just-in-time basis – prior to actually doingan experiment. However, an in-class experiment may bea reasonable substitute for real-life use. For those with notechnical background, such as accountants getting their‘belt’ for six sigma, this hands-on experience can beextremely valuable for gaining appreciation of thelogistical issues of execution and measurement.

The hockey experiment is designed to illustrate thepower of two-level factorial design. It’s very simple andcompact, and most importantly, the results are notobvious to the experimenters. The students are providedwith a PC and statistical software with tools for designand analysis of experiments. With very little effort, theygenerate results that reinforce what’s been presented bythe instructor. This generates a feeling of confidence,which empowers the graduates to do their own DOE.

What sets this experiment apart from others used inclass, such as paper helicopters,1 is that it invariablygenerates interactions of factors, thus making itabsolutely clear why these designs are superior to thetraditional one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) approach.

Setting up the ExperimentThe objective of the hockey experiment is to learn

how to shoot a puck – just like the real game (seeFigure 1).

The response to be measured is the distance the puckslides over a surface. The students work in teams of fourwith the following job functions:

• Referee #1, to drop puck• Player, to shoot puck• Referee #2, to take measurements• Reporter, to announce settings and record resultsThe experiment requires use of a smooth-topped table

at least 6 feet in length. The other materials are all readilyavailable. Each team will need:

• 1 hard plastic ruler, 6 in (15 cm) in length (such asHelix #10011 Shatter Resistant) to use as the“stick.” Caution: even “unbreakable” rulers will breakif bent too far. For safety reasons, apply electrical tapeas reinforcement. (A more expensive, but possiblemore durable, option is the Helix stainless steelruler. This features a cork-coated backing thatcould become an additional experimental factor,that is, hitting the puck with one side versus theother.)

• 4 quarters make a “puck” (pun intended).• Gum-type adhesive (such as DAP BlueStiktm) to

stick the coins together into a puck.• 1 six-foot (2 m) tape measure (such as Helix

#11201 pocket)The “player” may tire after taking several shots, so a

fixture to hold the hockey stick ruler is recommended.This can be easily constructed out of wood by simplycutting a 1 centimeter deep slot. If this seems daunting,consider investing in a commercially-made holdingdevice such as the Irwin Quick-Grip® model 59200(2”-50 mm) picture in Figure 2. In any case, the trainermust be thoroughly prepared by doing a great deal ofpre-experimentation to verify that it will almost certainlywork when done in class.

Figure 1: Slap shot by Brian Rolston of the Minnesota Wild

Figure 2: Optional clamp with alternative ‘stick’ made of stainless steel

6

MINI PAPER Continued from page 5

Link to page 7

The dimensions of the optional fixture and othermaterials can be seen in Figure 3, which shows atemplate that’s provided to the students. They are askedto include the following factors in their experiment:

A. Shot type: “Slap” (set puck at “face-off” line, thenretract and release stick) versus “Wrist” (set puckagainst fully retracted stick and fling it forward)

B. Stick length: “Short” (7 cm) vs “Long” (14 cm)C. Windup: “Half” (2.5 cm) vs “Full “(4.5 cm)

Figure 3: Template with pre-marked puck positions and stick setbacks

Figure 4: Typical results from hockey DOE – interaction of shot type withpuck placement

The teams are encouraged to brainstorm and come upwith one or more additional factors. There’s no limit towhat they can choose to do other than it must be safeand reasonable. Time is also a limitation. To maintaincontrol, the instructor should pre-approve all DOEs.

The specific questions that must be answered are:• What is the ideal setup for distance?• Are there other factors that you think should be

included in a comprehensive screening test?• What other responses could be measured?We also provide these tips for the data analysis:• Be sure to check residuals – take appropriate

remedial action• Variability may make it hard to resolve effects –

consider replication

Experimental Procedure:Clear all equipment off the classroom table for the

hockey rink. (Be careful: bend with your knees, not yourback!)

1. Referee #1 set “face-off” template at left corner of“rink” (must allow for right drift of wrist shot).

2. Referee #2 insert “stick” in fixture with centimeterrule at top, with the “1” centimeter rule marking inthe slot. Position it over spot marked on template.

3. Do some pre-trials to get a feel for the setup. (Hint:test the extreme conditions to make sure puckwon’t fly into the stands.)

4. All participants use software to set up a test plan.The game will be called after 20 experimental runs– budget accordingly. (If you wish to deviate fromthis or any other suggestions, please ask forpermission from the “commissioner” (yourinstructor)).

5. Reporter reads off setup from test plan oncomputer.

6. Referee #1 sets the puck (tails down) at theappropriate position on the template.

7. Player bends stick back to specified position usingtemplate as a guide.

8. If “slap” shot, leave puck at face-off line. If “wrist”shot, Referee #1 sets puck against stick.

9. Player releases stick.10. Referee #2 measures distance from where the puck

starts to where it stops.11. Reporter records results in spreadsheet.12. All participants use software to analyze.

Typical ResultsLike any in-class experiment results will vary,

sometimes in a delightful way. For example, one teamspread water on the table in an attempt to create ahydroplane effect! Almost everyone reveals anunexpected interaction between shot type and sticklength as shown in Figure 4. The “I” bars on the graphrepresent least significant difference (LSD) intervals at the95 percent confidence level. The vertical axis representsshot distance, which analyzes best in the log scale.

“What are you going to say, you can only shootwrist shots?”2

– Brian Rolston, professional hockey player infamousfor his wicked slap shot

Wrist

Log

(Dis

tanc

e -

cm)

Slap

At Short End of Stick At Far End of Stick

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.1

0.8

0.5

Puck (at various positions)

Ruler

MINI PAPER Continued from page 6

The effect of stick length depends on the type of shot.The slap shot actually works better when the puck is setcloser to the player, which is not intuitive. At this point(left side on the figure), there’s no significant differencebetween shot types (as indicated by the overlap of pointswithin the LSD bar).

Other IdeasA Six Sigma trainer, Ariela Gruszka of Micron

Technology, provided these suggestions:“Our puck features one side that is polished (smooth)

versus the other coated with diamond grit (rough). Also, weused a metal ruler that is more rigid than a plastic one.”

Notice in Figure 5 below (featuring the University ofMinnesota’s Goldy Gopher in hockey regalia as anonlooker) that the puck used by this DOE educator was abit smaller in diameter than the one made with fourquarters, but it was about the same thickness.

would be good to take several shots at each experimentalsetup and analyze both the average and standarddeviation. Perhaps some conditions are more stable(significantly less measured variation) then others.Another thought is that the tabletop hockey exercisecould be continued to the next level of designexperiments – response surface methodology (RSM).Armed with an RSM model, a shooter could hit a targetat any point within range! One last thing, somethingreally wacky (pun intended): Replace the puck with a six-sided die. Distance would then vary much moredepending on its orientation when hit (if cornered, it willspin) and force (the die will roll).

ConclusionThe hockey experiment has been well-received by

adult learners from a variety of industries. It’s very simpleand compact for the instructor to set up and explain. Theresults of the experiment generally surprise the studentswith an unexpected interaction. These features make thehockey experiment an ideal in-class exercise for DOE.

Further ReadingFor more details on two-level factorial design see the

second edition of DOE Simplified,3 which details analysisof results from a tabletop hockey experiment done by theprocedures outlined in this article.

For a list of other fun in-class experiments, includingthe ever-popular paper helicopters, see “DOE It Yourself”posted at www.statease.com/pubs/doe-self.pdf.

References1.Box, George E. P. and Liu, Patrick Y. T. (1999), “Statistics as

a Catalyst to Learning by Scientific Method Part I – AnExample,” Journal of Quality Technology, Vol. 31.

2. Shipley, John. (2008), “Rolston loves to let it rip, butpowerful shootout slap shot raises safety concerns,” Saint PaulPioneer Press, January 24, page 4D.

3. Anderson, Mark J. and Whitcomb, Patrick J. (2007), Chapter4 “Dealing with Non-Normality via ResponseTransformations,” Productivity Press, NY.

The grit increased friction to such an extent that itmattered which side of the puck the experimentersplaced down (factor D in the Pareto plot pictured inFigure 6), whereas the difference in sides of the quarter(head vs. tail) cannot typically be detected. Also, theyperformed enough runs (full two-level factorial on fivefactors: 25=32) to achieve the power needed to uncovera minor interaction between shot type and the materialused in the ruler.

Contact the author for the data from this experiment.Also, feel free to suggest other ideas to make this exercisemore manageable, fun or informative. For example,perhaps someone could try adding accuracy as aresponse. After all, that is literally the goal in real-lifehockey! It would not be hard to mark out a bulls-eye(circular sticky note?). If this becomes an objective, it

Figure 5: Materials for tabletop hockey

Figure 6: Pareto chart of experiment done with gritty puck

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A: Windup – 2.5 vs 5 cmB: Spot on stick – 1 vs 7 cmC: Shot – Slap vs WristD: Surface of puck – Smooth vs RoughE: Ruler – Metal vs Plastic

Positive EffectsNegative Effects

Bonferroni Limit

Rank

t-Value Limit

312927252321191715131197531

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Blast from the Past - 1988 Newsletter Article (Volume 8, Spring)

Trend Forecast Statistics DivisionWorldwide economic competition will continue to force

companies to concentrate on costs, quality and reliability. Thus,there will be strong pressure for effective application of thescientific method as practiced by statisticians/quality engineersfor designing new operating systems. Due to immediatepressures, industry demand will be for practically trained systemdesigners/troubleshooters. Universities are, in general, not gearedtowards producing such graduates at this time, and, mostpracticing engineers/technicians have little statistical knowledge.Consequently, I see the continuation and acceleration of twotrends. First, more statisticians will be hired to become “hands-on” engineers and not just consultants. Second, there will be aneed for continuing statistical education for practicing engineers.

As product life-cycles continue to shorten and competitionincreases, we will move more towards greater reliance on usingefficient learning techniques (statistical design and analysis ofexperiments) in system design. A major increase in the use ofsimulation and experimental design early in the product designstage will occur. Improved models for learning as well as moreaccurate and available simulation models are needed. We needto assist in this effort. Approaches such as the Taguchi methodfor parameter design need to be refined and fit into Americanculture and procedures. As statisticians become more directlyinvolved in design, they will need to learn to include economicconsiderations in their models. In addition to modeling, thesestatisticians must learn to communicate in the language ofbusiness as well.

Emphasis on final inspection, and indeed, general productinspection in the traditional sense will decline. Emphasis will beplace on real-time process monitoring and adaptive control toassure process performance. Hence, research will be needed onimproved sensing and probing systems as well as using statisticalmodels for output prediction and feedback control. A need formore user-friendly software to support such statistical usageexists.

Gerald Hahn (General Electric Company) has noted that the

move to computer-integrated manufacturing systems ischanging the practice of industrial statistics. We are movingfrom a data deficient state to one of an overabundance of data.Techniques will be needed for filtering data efficiently andeffectively and for determining, a priori, what data will bemeaningful for process analysis.

Increased competition in U.S. and foreign markets will forceU.S. manufacturers to adopt the Japanese philosophy ofcontinuous improvement to complement the typicalU.S. strategy of major innovation. Statistical process control is anatural successor step to inspection and will provide one avenuefor such improvement. Shewhart control charts will becomemore widespread, but perhaps only moderately. EWMA andmultivariate charts will find increased usage and a large increasein the use of process capability studies will occur for evaluatingtroublesome processes. Modern data collection allows morefrequent sampling, thus, greater emphasis will be placed onmodeling serial correlation in control charts.

SPC will become largely the responsibility of the line worker,with an increased tendency towards small worker teams. Hence,the need for education in straight forward statistical anddiagnostic techniques will continue to grow. We expectincreased in-house training of simple graphical techniques.Pareto diagrams, Fishbone diagrams, multivariate andmultifactor plots and control charts. For an increasing number ofmanufacturing facilities these job exercises will be a normal partof the workers’ routine.

Sam Shapiro (Florida International University) has suggestedwork on the design of a University curriculum for qualityengineers and the selling of this program to academia.This is an excellent project that can have a major impacton the future of American manufacturing. As Sam has noted,this trend has already begun and we should expect it tocontinue.

Editor’s Note: The author of this article was not identified in theoriginal publication.

52nd Annual

Fall Technical ConferenceStatistics & Quality - Coming to the Table for Growth & Improvement

October 8-11, 2008Hilton Phoenix East/ Mesa

http://ftc2008.asu.edu SECTION ON PHYSICAL AND

ENGINEERING SCIENCES

QUALITY AND PRODUCTIVITY SECTION

Co-sponsored by:

courtesy of Hilton Phoenix East/Mesa

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➫ Dr. Joseph M. Juran Has Passed AwaySOUTHBURY, CT. – Dr. Joseph M. Juran, notedauthor and “father” of modern day QualityManagement, passed away on February 28, 2008,from natural causes. He was 103 years old, and wasphysically and mentally active until his death. Bornin Braila, Romania, in 1904, Dr. Juran’s familyimmigrated to the United States, settling inMinneapolis, MN, in 1912.Joseph De Feo, Juran Institute’s CEO and 20 yearemployee, states that, “Dr. Juran recently told methat he wanted everyone to know he had awonderful life and hoped that his contributions toimproving the quality of our society will beremembered. Although Dr. Juran has been retiredfrom the Institute since 1995 he remained ChairmanEmeritus and ensured that we could carry on hismission to improve the quality of our society.” Dr.Juran had many notable accomplishments in his life.His major contribution to society was in the field ofquality management. Perhaps most importantly, heis recognized as the person who added themanagerial dimension to quality – broadening itfrom its statistical origins.Web site:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/03/business/03juran.html?_r=1&ref=obituaries&oref=slogin

➫ Call for Papers: 2009 WorldConference on Quality ImprovementMay 18 - 20, Minneapolis, MNThe conference theme is The Culture of Quality:Serving Customers, Organizations, and Communities.The submission deadline is August 1, 2008.Applicants will be notified by Mid-October of theirsession status. If selected, final papers andpresentations are due in mid-March. Web site: http://wcqi.asq.org/2009/call-for-papers/theme-focus-area.html

➫ W. Edwards Deming FactsIn the April 2008 edition of Quality Progress there isan interesting article entitled Deming’s legacy underthe Expert Answers department. Here are a few bulletpoints in case you missed it:• A 1991 U.S. News and World Report cover story

proclaimed Deming’s wisdom one of nine hiddenturning points in human history.

• His business card included the title consultant instatistical studies.

• Deming quote: “Measurements of productivity donot lead to productivity.”

➫ Right First Time – DVD Review by BrianSersion I recently had the pleasure to view a great, classicBritish video entitled Right First Time: A FilmConcerning Quality Management. The story is about amanufacturing company that is required by theircustomers to improve their quality processes,somewhat reluctantly at first. They risk losing animportant customer if the quality of their parts is notsignificantly improved. Included in the company’stoolkit to get the job done are statistical methods(statistical process control, sampling, capabilitytesting, etc.). A major theme in the video is Cost ofQuality . . . sound familiar? As the company facesincreasing pressure from competitors, they decide toreturn the favor by requiring their suppliers to attainzero defects. The video does a great job of presenting quality andapplied statistics topics at a beginner level in under30 minutes. Some of the statements in the videospeak for themselves:

• Quality control is not outside the flow ofproductivity.

• Make things right the first time.• Statistics are a tool of management like any other.

If properly used they are invaluable.I would find this video most useful for training cross-functional teams where the experience level ofmembers in quality concepts differs widely. Thevideo is marketed as a training resource and isavailable through PQ Systems, Inc.Web site: http://www.pqsystems.com/buy/RightFirstTime.php

➫ ASQ Education Courses: May 19-23,AtlantaBlack Belt/ Quality Engineering StatisticsWeb site: http://www.asq.org/courses/bb-quality-engineering-stats.htmlImplementing Statistical Process ControlWeb site: http://www.asq.org/courses/statistical-process-control.html

➫ Congratulations to Peter Bartell,Quality Champions Essay ContestwinnerMr. Bartell has been awarded $25 for hiscontribution, Dr. Deming and Me.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

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10

2007-2008

BudgetYTD

Expenses

2007-2008

BudgetYTD

60,000 14,274 Web Design & Maintenance 4,500 487

1,000 125 Narrated PowerPoints 500 0

1,600 6,099 Virtual Academy 0 0

0 0 Outreach Projects 6,500 0

0 0 FTC Sponsorship 3,500 0

0 0 ISBIS Conference Short Courses 0 0

0 3,919 Other 3,000 0

$62,600 $24,416 Tactical Plans Sub-Total $11,500 $487

Hunter/Nelson Awards (plaque) 500 223

New Member Mailings 1,500 0 Hunter Awardee Honorarium (travel) 1,000 0

Teleconferences 500 34 Youden Speaker (travel) 500 0

General Fund $2,000 $34 FTC Student Grants 1,500 460

6,000 371 ASQ Testimonials ($50 each) 100 0

Travel, hotel 6,000 371 Service Awards (WCQI, FTC Reps) 700 0

6,600 0 Outgoing Chair's Gift 500 500

WCQI Mtg/Hospitality 4,100 0 Awards Sub-Total $4,800 $1,184

WCQI Travel 2,500 0

7,500 10,106 Misc/postage 100 0

Travel, hotel, meals 7,500 10,106 Misc/travel 500 0

3,000 3,654 Misc/other 100 600

FTC Mtg/Hospitality 500 801 Misc- Sub-Total $700 $600

FTC Travel 2,500 2,853

0 0 Total Expenses $62,600 $17,327

$23,100 $14,131

$0 $0 Ott Scholarship

$0 $0 Assets

$0 $0 Scholarship Fund 200,000

$0 $0 Expenses

2,000 0 Scholarship (2) 10,000 10,000

0 0

$2,000 $0 Ending Balances (as of Dec 31, 2007)

2,500 891 Checking 61,023

2,000 325 Money Market 110,713

500 566 Accounts Receivable 1,688

10,000 0 ASQ 1,688

6,000 0 Dividends

2,500 0

1,000 0 Current Assets $173,424

500 0 Capital Assets $6,413

$12,500 $891 depreciated to $0

$0 $0 Long Term Assets $334,385

$0 $0 Reserve fund 77,366

$0 $0 Ott fund 257,019

$6,000 $0 Total Assets

$0 $0

$43,600 $15,022

$507,809

Nominating Comm

Programs Comm

Publications Comm

Standards Comm

Promotions Comm

Committees Sub-Total

WCQI Promotional Items

DAC/WAC meetings (Nov, May)

Auditing Comm

Certification Comm

Operational Planning (July)

Bylaws Comm

FTC

WCQI Exhibitor Fees

Expenses

Total

Sp Pub Honorarium

Newsletter Comm

Examining Comm

WCQI meeting (May)

Sp Pub Printing

Regular Newsletter (3)

Special Publication (even years)

Spring 2008

Membership Comm

Sp Pub Postage

Sp Pub Reprints

Long Range Planning (3 yrs)

Planning Comm

Postage/Misc

Printing (layout, pdf files)

Miscellaneous

FTC Short Courses

Interest/Royalties/Dividends

Teleclass Revenue

Dues

AQC Tutorials

Revenue

Retail Sales

TREASURER’S REPORT2007 Qtr 2

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11

Committee Name Division Position E-mail address Telephone

OFFICERS

Doug Hlavacek Division Chair douglas.hlavacek@ecolab.com 651-293-4465

Daksha Chokshi Chair-Elect daksha.chokshi@pw.utc.com 561-796-8373

John Vandenbemden Treasurer john@trainingforquality.com 859-240-1739

Vivek Ajmani Secretary vivek.b.ajmani@ampf.com 612-678-2179

STANDING

Examining

Chair Geoff Vining Examining Chair vining@vt.edu 540-231-5657

Auditing

Chair Doug Hlavacek Division Chair douglas.hlavacek@ecolab.com 651-293-4465

By-Laws

Chair Gordon Clark Past Chair clark.17@osu.edu 614-847-1394

Nominating

Chair Gordon Clark Past Chair clark.17@osu.edu 614-847-1394

Program

Co-Chair Vivek Ajmani Secretary vivek.b.ajmani@ampf.com 612-678-2179

Co-Chair Scott Kowalski Vice Chair - Products & Services skowalski@minitab.com 407-328-9609

Publications

Co-Chair Vivek Ajmani Secretary vivek.b.ajmani@ampf.com 612-678-2179

Co-Chair Scott Kowalski Vice Chair - Products & Services skowalski@minitab.com 407-328-9609

Voting Member Brian Sersion Newsletter Editor sersiob@cps-k12.org 513-363-0177

Voting Member Bill Rodebaugh Special Publications Editor billrsbti@aim.com 215-743-0406

Non-Voting Member Rudy Kittlitz Glossary & Tables Editor rgke300@hughes.net 432-837-9937

Non-Voting Member Steve Schuelka How To... Series Editor sjschuelk@yahoo.com 219-689-3804

Strategic Planning

Chair Doug Hlavacek Division Chair douglas.hlavacek@ecolab.com 651-293-4465

CONSTITUTED

Tactical Planning

Chair Daksha Chokshi Chair-Elect daksha.chokshi@pw.utc.com 561-796-8373

Promotions

Co-Chair John Vandenbemden Treasurer john@trainingforquality.com 859-240-1739

Co-Chair Mark Kiel Vice Chair - Outreach mhkiel@uss.com 219-888-3788

Non-Voting Member Small Web Solutions Web Master Contact jwebster@smallwebsolutions.com 219-988-3139

Non-Voting Member Chris Hutras Body of Knowledge Chair chutras@holophane.com 740-349-4278

Membership Needs

Co-Chair John Vandenbemden Treasurer john@trainingforquality.com 859-240-1739

Co-Chair Mark Kiel Vice Chair - Outreach mhkiel@uss.com 219-888-3788

Voting Member Jonathon Andell Membership Chair jandell@hotmail.com 480-893-9004

Voting Member Mark Johnson Standards Chair mejohnso@mail.ucf.edu 407-823-2695

Voting Member Harry Koval Certification Chair hkoval@comcast.net 651-776-9503

Awards

Chair Lynne Hare Awards Chair lynnehare@patmedia.net 908-897-0610

Non-Voting Member Lynne Hare Ott Scholarship lynnehare@patmedia.net 908-897-0610

Non-Voting Member Ted Allen FTC Student Grants allen.515@osu.edu 614-292-1793

Non-Voting Member Robert Mitchell Hunter Award Chair rhmitchell@mmm.com 651-736-8684

ACTIVITY CHAIRS

Non-Voting Member Frank Rossi FTC Representative frossi@kraft.com 847-646-5196

Non-Voting Member Robert Mitchell WCQI Session Manager rhmitchell@mmm.com 651-736-8684

Non-Voting Member Bob Brill Short Course Chair robert.brill@icl-pplp.com 785-749-8124

STATISTICS DIVISION COMMITTEE ROSTERMembers of STAT Council

2007-2008

Return Home

The ASQ Statistics Division Newsletter ispublished in three quarters of the yearby the Statistics Division of theAmerican Society for Quality.

All communications regarding thispublication, EXCLUDING CHANGEOF ADDRESS, should be addressed to:

Brian Sersion, Newsletter EditorCincinnati Public SchoolsResearch and Evaluation Dept.P.O. Box 5381Cincinnati, OH 45201-5381Phone: 513-363-0177email: sersiob@cps-k12.org

Other communications relating to theStatistics Division of ASQ should beaddressed to:Doug Hlavacek, Division ChairTraining Director, Lean Six SigmaEcolab Inc. 370 Wabasha St. North - EUC13St. Paul, MN 55102-1390Phone: 651-293-4465email: douglas.hlavacek@ecolab.com

Communications regarding change ofaddress should be sent to ASQ at:

American Society for QualityP.O. Box 3005Milwaukee, WI 53201-3005

This will change the address for allpublications you receive from ASQ.You can also handle this by phone(414) 272-8575 or (800) 248-1946.

STATISTICS DIVISION AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR QUALITY

UPCOMINGNEWSLETTER

DEADLINES FORSUBMISSIONS

Issue Vol. No. Due DateFall 2008 27 1 Aug. 31, 2008

Winter 2008 27 2 Nov. 30, 2008

VISIT THE STATISTICS DIVISION WEBSITE:www.asqstatdiv.org

Other Periodicals for Applied Statisticshttp://www.asq.org/pub/jqt/