CYCLES • •

Vol. 50. No. 1 2009: First Quarter.

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles was established in 1941 by Edward R. Dewey

Membership Magazine for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles

www.CyclesMagazine.org

A Course In Cycles: “Making a Cycle Analysis” ` Lunar Phase and Dow Jones Industrial Highs Holy Hormones Honey! Understanding Your Mood, Mind and Hormone Cycle and more...

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CYCLES Editor K. David Katzmire Layout Tacie J. Himelright Cycles, the membership magazine of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Inc., reports on research by the Foundation and regularly surveys and reports on the full range of cycle research and study conducted around the world. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Inc., is an interna-tional, nonprofit, research and educational institute, incorpo-rated in 1941 by Edward R. Dewey. The Foundation is the world’s center for multidisciplinary cycle research and edu-cation. Dedicated to the public welfare, the Foundation steadily pursues its original purpose, namely: To foster, promote, coordinate, conduct, and publish scientific re-search; to conduct educational activities in chthonic fluctua-tions in natural and social phenomena; and to function as a clearinghouse for scientists working in this area.

Cycles: ISSN 0011-4294 (http://lccn.loc.gov/54019178 ) is published periodically by the:

FOUNDATION FOR THE STUDY OF CYCLES, INC. 2929 Coors Blvd NW Suite 307 Albuquerque New Mexico 87120 tel. 505-796-5699 editor@cyclesmagazine.org

A nonprofit, tax-exempt, scientific and educational member-ship organizations. Copyright ©1950-2009 Foundation for the Study of Cycles, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction or use of the text or pictorial content in any manner without written permission is prohibited. Cycles is free to members of the Foundation. For membership information visit FoundationMember.org. We welcome unsolicited manuscripts, see our Editorial Guidelines at: CyclesMagazine.org/editorial.pdf. Cycles is indexed by the Public Affairs Information Service Bulletin. PAST COMMITTEE MEMBERS

Charles Greeley Abbot, Smithsonian Institution Copley Amory, First Chairman, Permanent Committee. Sir Patrick Ashley Cooper, Hudson’s Bay Co. Charles Gates Dawns, 30th Vice President of U.S. Charles S. Elton, Oxford University Alonson Bigelow Houghton, Princeton University Ellsworth Huntington, Yale University Sir Julian S. Huxley, Zoological Society of London Wesley C. Mitchell, National Bureau of Economic Research

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

David M. Perales BOARD OF DIRECTORS

David M. Perales CHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT & EXEC. DIRECTOR Anthony Shack VICE CHAIRMAN & SECRETARY Richard Mogey CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR & TREASURER Anthony F. Herbst, Ph.D. William Sarubbi ADVISORY BOARD

Jake Bernstein, MBH Weekly Futures Trading Letter, futures analyst, trader, author of 30+ books on trading

Jerry Blythe, M.D., former investment advisor, portfolio manager, biological cycles research

Leslie Botha, pioneer on female hormonal and behavioral changes

Stephen Bush, IRIS Financial Group, former Senior Director and Analyst FSC

R. Gordon Chapman, IBM e-business, digital storage and digital rights management

Edward Dobson, Trader’s Press Peter Eliades, Stock Market Cycles Mark Eubank, weather research and forecaster

Channel 5, KSL-TV, Salt Lake City Rebecca Field, Ph.D., founder Mercury Institute Joseph E. Granville, Granville Market Letter 42

years; inventor of On-Balance Volume theory; worked with Edward Dewey;

Stan Harley, Harley Capital Management, pioneer in cycles research

Chester Joy, former Executive Director FSC Martin Kokus, researcher seismic and solar cycles Roberto Mendez, Ph.D., professor and researcher

economic and social cycles, Panama City David Moore, project manager IBM Canada Larry Pesavento, TradingTudor.com, 40-year trader,

commodity mgr. for Drexel Burnham Lambert, author of 9 books on trading and astro cycles

Stephen Sekelik, Encoded Productions, film and media producer

Jim Tillman, Cycle Trends Ray Tomes, created online platform for Cycles

Research Institute for FSC Jim Twentyman, real estate investments Norman Winski, Astro-Trend and planetary research,

commodities advisor and trader

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1 A Course In Cycles: “Making a Cycle Analysis”

A Course in Cycles to give you the skills and understanding needed to make an accurate Cycle Analysis.

By Richard Mogey 31 Lunar Phase and Dow Jones Industrial Highs Relationships between market peaks and solar lunar ecliptics and lunar phases. By David McMinn 33 Professor S. Afanasiev’s Nanocycle Method A new method of dating geological deposits devised by Professor S. Afanasiev, translated from Russian by Michael Taler. By Ray Tomes 35 Holy Hormones Honey! Menstrual Health Education Series: Understanding Your Mood, Mind and Hormone Cycle A Health Education series is to support women in understanding That our cyclical hormonal flow is what re-aligns us with the natural cycles of the universe. By Leslie Carol Botha & H. Sandra Chevalier-Batik iii The Director’s Letter 30 What’s New at the Foundation? 30 On the Web

Signed articles express the opinion of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the editor or an official position of the Foundation.

Volume 50, Number 1: 2009 First Quarter

Published by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles

Albuquerque, New Mexico CYCLES www.CyclesMagazine.org

Basic Cycles

Biological Cycles

Departments

Geological Cycles

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The Director’s Letter

August 12, 2009 Dear Members, On June 22nd, 2009, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles announced an historic milestone in our 68-year existence. We have signed a ten-year exclusivity agreement to make FSC’s economic research, market fore-casting, and trade timing signals available globally in a new and exciting way. The Foundation has partnered with one of the world’s most prestigious market advisory groups, Weiss Research, Inc. (http://moneyandmarkets.com), to bring our proprietary market timing signals to the world. The Foundation will provide the software and background cycles research, and the Weiss Group shall have exclusive rights to distribute our market data. This historic agreement is known as The Foundation Alliance (TFA).

THE FOUNDATION ALLIANCE (TFA)

The 2009 debut of The Foundation Alliance (TFA) offers the unique benefits of long term analyses with our state of the art technology (Techsignal) to TFA subscribers in a way never before available. On June 22nd, 2009, in a ground-breaking online webinar, attended by more than 70,000 registered world-wide, Foundation Research Director, Richard Mogey, explained how our cyclical buy and sell signals could have helped turn a $10,000 investment into $69,000, $337,000, and even $363,000 in profits by showing how cyclic analysis is the missing piece of the “timing puzzle”. To support the point, Mr. Mogey revealed major stock market calls made by the Foundation that caught trends with astounding accuracy. This included pinpointing the 2007 U.S. stock market peak with a warning that was published in Barron’s

online August 23rd, 2007, several weeks before the 2007 U.S. stock mar-ket topped, and a simultaneous forecast of a bear market rally that began in March of this year which the Founda-tion had already called ten weeks in ad-vance. Other gains of 490% and more were detailed in oil, gold, silver and the US dollar. These and other market calls were made done using Foundation re-search, tools and technology that will benefit the Foundation Alliance sub-scribers in new ways.

TFA is the world’s first and only investment advisory service designed from the ground up to actualize our proprietary cyclic trading signals into a product that helps its subscribers buy lower, sell higher, and to enjoy greater trading profits. We are indeed proud to be able to announce to our members that new opportunities are now made possible to all by The Foundation Alliance. For further details please visit www.TheFoundationAlliance.com.

Best Wishes,

David M. Perales Chairman / President / Executive Director

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A Course in Cycles A Three-Part Series on “Making a Cycle Analysis”

BY RICHARD MOGEY

ECONOMIC CYCLES

...for an educational course from F.S.C. From the Power Point Presentation...

This is a Course in Cycles to give you the skills and understanding needed to make an accurate Cycle Analysis.

1. An Introduction to Cycles

2. Modern Cycle Analysis

3. Cycle Principles

4. Hurst Principles

5. Making and Using an Analysis

6. Cycle Techniques

7. Hurst Principles

8. Making and Using an Analysis

9. Cycle Techniques

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What Is a Cycle

The study of cycles, like most other studies, has common conceptions as well as more technical defini-tions. Offered here is a more technical understanding into the nature of cyclic movement to help answer the question, what is a cycle?

SECTION 1: AN INTRODUCTION TO CYCLES

Cycles and the cycles model

Rhythms, periodicity and fluctuations

The nature of the cosmos and cycles

The nature of reality is for everything to revolve around a center and return again and again to similar conditions such as the planets and galaxies

Change and growth and cycles

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Basic definitions are the key to understanding the study of cycles. These are Phase, Amplitude, Period (or Cycle), Crest (or Peak), Trough, and Trendline (or Inflection line). They can be defined as follows: Period or cycle - comes from the Greek word for circle, kyklos. It implies coming around to the place of beginning with a return to a previous condition or a position in space or time. Cycle usually refers to a continuous succession of events that repeats over time with reasonable, but not necessarily precise, regularity. It is loosely used to denote rhythm or periodicity. The regu-larity of a Cycle can range from being a scant fluctuation to a rhythm with strict periodicity. When a sequence of events follows a time interval, it has rhythm, (i.e., a 6-year cycle will repeat about every 6 years). This reveals, or at least suggests, that the design is not random. It is rea-sonable to assume that events are not random when they continue through enough waves or pat-terns with regularity. These oscillations can be physically described by shape, phase, ampli-tude, and period. Phase - is a position of time within a wave that usually refers to the location of a crest. This is stated as units of time between the base of the cycle (its starting point) and its first crest. For example, a cycle with a phase of 10 will display the first crest on the 10th data point. Two or more synchronized cycles are considered to be In phase when their crests or troughs occur at the same. Synchronized cycles are in Reverse phase: when the crests of one coincides with the troughs of another. The Positive phase of a cycle is the part of the wave that is above the axis (or trend line). The Negative phase is that part of the wave that is below the axis. Amplitude- is the strength or the magnitude of fluctuation in a cycle. It is measured from the peak or the trough to the neutral, (trend line, often called the point of inflection or axis). The height above, or the depth below the neutral trend line, around which the wave oscillates, will determine the amplitude. This may be expressed in absolute units, but more often it is expressed as a percentage of the highest point above the trend. Positive amplitude is the height above the axis. Negative amplitude is the depth below the axis. Overall amplitude is the sum of positive and negative amplitudes; or the range from one extreme to the other

SECTION I: AN INTRODUCTION TO CYCLES

Cycle Model Terminology

A COURSE IN CYCLES

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How It All Began

Men and women became aware of cycles from the earliest times as they began to realize the pe-riodic fluctuations they observed in seasons of the year, flooding of the Nile River and courses of the planets. Observations became more sophisticated over time with the creation of mathe-matical formulas, scientific instruments, and the development of the modern world.

One of the earliest uses of cycles came with the yearly flooding of the Nile River which was used for irrigation and fertilization of crops.

Nile River Flood Stages

SECTION I: AN INTRODUCTION TO CYCLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

The ancient world had very long histories and traditions of observation

Cycles began with the Ancient Indians, Babylonians, Persians and Egyptians

Long term data reflects the history of human activity

History repeats itself but it does not duplicate itself

Physical observations to mathematical methods

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Long Term Data Shows How the Availability of Money Effects Civilizations

Ancient peoples kept detailed records of financial transactions, as can be seen in this chart of interest rates that began some 5000 years ago. Since earliest times, wherever and whenever money was made there was a government that would lay claims to some of the share. Early data carved on stones and ancient shards record interest rates from times of antiquity. It is interesting to note that the tops and bottoms in a long cycle of interest rates also mark major changes in cul-tures and civilizations.

The Period of a cycle is its Length

The Phase is how it lines up with the Data

SECTION I: AN INTRODUCTION TO CYCLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

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The birth of modern cycle analysis began in the 19th century as we moved away from mercan-tile economics and into the capitalist system. This was the first significant rebirth of economic thinking since the ancient world.

The Discovery of Cycles In the 19th Century

SECTION 2: MODERN CYCLE ANALYSIS

The Discovery of Fourier First Published in 1807

Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier was an 18th and 19th century French mathematician and philoso-pher. Publication of his works has forever changed how cycles are found. With the Fourier Se-ries, cycle analysts have moved beyond a mere observation of cycles and are now able plot them mathematically. This, along with the subsequent development of the computer, was the most important advancement to the study of cycles.

The series was designed to decompose a time series into component parts. It is widely used in science and statistics and is one of the greatest mathematical discoveries in the last 200 years. There would be no science of cycles without it.

The shift in economic systems

How it began – Observation of commercial crises ad bubbles ranging from tulip prices in Europe to trading in the South Seas to agricultural values along the Mississippi River.

The beginnings of economics – Adam Smith, Ricardo and the physiocrats

Sismondi and Marx

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SECTION 2: MODERN CYCLE ANALYSIS

Modern Approach to Finding Cycles

A COURSE IN CYCLES

By observation

By measuring charts

By mathematical methods

Testing cycles

Hold outs

Outcome

We still use observation to analyze cycles, and we inspect our data, but the major work is done through mathematics and statistical testing. It is extremely important to make observations when cycles are found to make sure they continue as expected. This is accomplished by what are known as holdouts and how-it-came-out techniques.

Computer Led Advances In Fourier Analysis

Developments in the Fourier Series – Harmonic Analysis – Statistical Spectral Analysis and the Power Spectrum

Fast Fourier Transforms – Cooley-Tukey 1965 – Blackman-Tukey

Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis - Burg 1978

As the Fourier Series revolutionized the discovery of cycles, the development of the computer brought the Fourier Series out of the halls of mathematics and into practical use for everyone. With this came new developments in the use of algorithms.

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SECTION 2: MODERN CYCLE ANALYSIS

The Power Spectrum

A COURSE IN CYCLES

The heart of the Fourier routines is the Spectral Analysis that produces a power spectrum. In order for a period to be considered a cycle it must have high amplitude. High amplitudes will become evident in the power spectrum.

Once a power spectrum is complete, the high amplitude periods are statistically tested in a periodogram.

Periodigram

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SECTION 2: MODERN CYCLE ANALYSIS

Cycles Model and the Harmonic Pattern

A COURSE IN CYCLES

This plot shows a sine wave with the harmonic pattern created in the periodogram. If the cycle period is random, all columns of the periodogram will be close to a straight line and the harmonic pattern will not have a high and low column. However, the chart shows a statistically significant cycle that is rep-resented in the periodogram.

The major mathematical advance in modern cycle study was done by Fourier

The best way to mathematically find cycles is with a Periodogram

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SECTION 3: CYCLES PRINCIPLES

The Search for Causes The Development of Cycle Theories

William Herschel weather and sunspots

The theories of W. Stanley Jeavons

Clement Juglar’s 9 to 12 year cycle

Professor Moore’s 8 year cycle

Sir William H. Beveridge work in wheat price The Kuznets cycle

The Kondratieff long wave

Kitchin cycle

The Schumpeterian system

Ellsworth Huntington Wheeler’s drought clock

Planetary cycles

One of the most important questions concerning cycles is their cause. In order to fully understand the phenomenon of cycles, it is important to consider the mechanism behind them. This is a review of many attempts to understand the causes of cycles.

Not all the cycles are the same

Physical cycles

Natural cycles

Cycles in human activity

One of the most important concepts in cycles is that of cycle typology. Let’s examine this typology.

Cycle Topology

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SECTION 3: CYCLE PRINCIPLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

Physical Cycles are the most regular. They are typically simple cycles that reflect the celestial me-chanics built into the nature of our solar system and universe. Not understanding the difference be-tween physical and other cycles can create misconceptions of what cycles are, and are not.

Physical Cycles

Natural Cycles

Natural Cycles are less regular than physical cycles, and, they are more complex. Natural cycles in precipitation, temperature and animal populations ultimately depend on many factors. Flood levels of the Nile River are one such example. We have also observed an influence of climate cycles on the prices of wheat.

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Cycles in Human Activity

SECTION 3: CYCLE PRINCIPLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

Cycles in human activity are in many ways the most interesting to investors. They are not quite as complex as natural cycles, but they are subject to human psychology which makes them complex in other ways.

Understanding the nature of the data – Changes in the nature of data – Data series changes

Choosing the kind of data, futures, cash or averages of daily prices

Choosing the length of the data

Choosing the data compression from intraday to yearly

The role of detrending data Visual inspection of the data

The Importance of Data

The heart of cycle analysis is data. Without it, there is nothing to analyze. Not understanding the na-ture of the data will lead to the wrong approach. The greater the understanding of the data, the clearer the analysis. All data must be inspected and prepared prior to an analysis.

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SECTION 3: CYCLE PRINCIPLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

Composition of Data

Composition of a Time Series

Data, especially that which reflects human activity, contains three parts. They are Trend and funda-mentals, cyclic activity, and, randoms. Once this is understood we may proceed with a proper analy-sis.

Jim Hurst’s Estimate Fundamentals and trend 75% Cycles 23% Random factors 2%

Foundation’s Estimate Fundamentals and trend 73% Cycles 22% Random factors 5%

Stock price trend accounts for 92% of all price changes

Bond yield cycles account for 89% of all price changes

Composition of data has been discussed by many commentators. Two of the most important discus-sions come from the works of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and, the works of James Hurst who pioneered trading with cycles. Both have identified the components of data.

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More is not always better

Do not look for cycles greater than 200 in a data series - compress the data for longer cycles

Phase versus period

For the best phase about 1800-2000

For the most stable period about 3000 Closes or averages for monthly data

SECTION 3: CYCLE PRINCIPLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

How Much Data do I Analyze?

The next question for the analysis is, how much data should one analyze? Long histories are ideal, but data should be inspected for changes and they can be compressed into monthly and weekly formats. Choosing the amount of data to analyze is important to the mathematics of Spectral Analysis and statistical routines. Other important considerations include a cycle’s Phases and Periods.

Logs

Rate of Change in economic data

Rate of Change in yearly data

Complete detrending, departures from a moving average, method of least squares

The effects of the moving average

Transformation and Interpolation

Due to trend, missing data and other factors, data should be transformed prior to analysis. Long series and economic data should be analyzed with a Rate of Change transformation. Interpolation (which is the ad-justment of dates) is important for daily data because of the holidays in market trading. It has been found and demonstrated that calculating the same number of data points for each week yields better results. We therefore recommend interpolating the data. Once the data is transformed and interpolated for missing days the analysis may begin.

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SECTION 3: CYCLE PRINCIPLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

The Issue of a Trend

Complete detrending – is it necessary? – The role of departures from a moving average

The difference of trading and science – You can’t trade departures

Partial detrending with logs

The use of the Rate of Change

Other methods – Least squares – First differences

Tukey Smoothing

Trend is one of the most important factors in cycle analysis. While complete detrending of the data may not be necessary for most market analysis, it is necessary to use logs. Logs tend to turn arithmetic changes into percent changes which are important to most financial data.

Dow Jones Departures from a 40 Data Point Moving Average

This slide pictures a completely detrended data series. Regardless of the type of detrending, the same cycles are typically found due to the robust nature of the algorithms used by the Foundation.

The most regular cycles are Physical

Data has Three parts

Trend, Rate of Change, Interpolation are important to data, the day of the week is not.

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Hurst Principles

SECTION 4: HURST PRINCIPLES

Cycles and the cycles model

Rhythms, periodicity and fluctuations

The nature of the cosmos and cycles

The nature of reality is for everything to revolve around a center and return again and again to similar conditions such as the planets and galaxies

Change and growth and cycles

Pioneers in cycle analysis were Edward R. Dewey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, and Gertrude Shirk, Vice-President of the Board of Directors for the Foundation. How-ever, the great pioneer in applying cycle analysis to financial markets is Jim Hurst. He was the first pioneer to computerize cyclical research on the nature of stock price movements. His de-velopments of the principles listed on this slide are used by every market cycle analyst today.

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SECTION 4: HURST PRINCIPLES

Summation of Two Cycles

A COURSE IN CYCLES

Summation

The Summation or Synthesis Principle holds that that the cyclic component of market data be composed from a sum of different cycles. After the data is decomposed with Spectral Analysis, individual cycles may be recomposed to form a synthesis or summation. This slide shows a summation of two important cycles in the US stock market which is superimposed on raw data.

This slide shows a complete re-composition of the SP 500 that was used to form a cyclic projection.

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SECTION 4: HURST PRINCIPLES

Problem of the Summation Principle

A COURSE IN CYCLES

The Summation Principle, as important as it is, presents some issues that must be discussed. The Summation Principle is best used with the Dominant Cycles found through Fourier analysis, but it is not best used with all of the cycles we find through these mathematical routines.

Small and large cycles share the same highs and lows

Curve fitting is too likely if all cycles are used

When you decompose all harmonics, then re-sum them, you should get the same plot

55% of the time all cycles will be fine, and those odds are not good enough

Summation Principle with Dominant Cycles, not all cycles

Nominal Cycle Models in Stocks

Years Months Weeks Market Days

18 216 936

9 108 468

4.5 54 234

1.5 18 78 400

9 39 200

20 100

10 50

5 25

12.50

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The Nominality Principle in one of Hurst’s greatest contributions. It embodies his Summation Principle, his Commonality Principle, and his Variability Principle. To find Nominal Cycles we typically use Spectral Analysis to identify the best cycles, then, these cycles are rounded to a nominal length, as seen in this table.

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SECTION 4: HURST PRINCIPLES

The Controversy over Inversions

A cycle Inversion or just wrong?

Timing right, direction wrong

Buying and selling cycle lows and highs is profitable 65% of the time

Inversions account for 13%-15% more turns

Cycles tend to pick 78%-82% of the highs and lows

Inversions are the next important issue. The subject of inversions is very controversial in the study of cycles. It is founded upon the fact that 65% of cycle turns yield profits, however, while cycle timing can identify about 78% of the market turns, an unidentified 13% is the result of inversions. We believe this information to be valuable.

How Inversions Work

The cycle model and Inversions

Physical cycles and Inversions

Natural cycles have some Inversions

Cycles in human activity

Cycles invert about 12-15% of the time 65% of cycle turns with good Bartels are profitable The longer the cycle, the fewer the inversions

Inversions happen only 12-15% of the time and can be monitored with oversold/overbought os-cillators in market data. Physical cycles, on the other hand, will rarely invert. Physical cycles are more prominent as natural cycles and as cycles in human activity.

A COURSE IN CYCLES

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Cycles in Human Activity 2 Inversions in 16 Turns

SECTION 4: HURST PRINCIPLES A COURSE IN CYCLES

This illustration shows how inversions work in detrended stock data.

The Principle of Phase Adjustment

The controversy

Curve fitting and the math of the phase

The Principle of Nominality

The Principle of Variability

Total Phase Adjustment Partial Phase Adjustment The high-low interval

Cycle Phase Reset, or, Phase Adjustment can be even more controversial in the study of cycles . When we analyze a cycle we develop at least 6 phases within the cycle. As mentioned earlier, the phase is how the cycle lines up with the data. We continually adjust the phase with the last third of the data to get the best fit. Hurst took this one step further. After nominalizing the cycle period, he would identify the last bottom of the cycle to phase it with the last bottom of the data. While some have claimed this to be curve fitting, they may have simply failed to understand the math of this analysis.

Gertrude Shirk, James Hurst & E. R. Dewey are important pioneers in the study of cycles

The Summation Principle is an important facet of cycle study that is best used with Dominant Cycles but it is not found in all cycles.

Inversions are, Controversial, Predictable, and Profitable, but they are not Controllable

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Using Cycles

SECTION 5: MAKING AND USING AN ANALYSIS

Cycle Projections versus trading with cycles

The use and role of Cycle Projections

Cycle Projections are forecasts

The problem of decomposition and Inversions

Trading is decision making Use individual Dominant Cycles for trading

How to use cycles is all important. The way you use cycles will be determined by whether you are making a projection or setting up a trade. Dominant cycles are the most important element to financial markets.

1. Get the cycle context including contrary series

2. Choose the data for the analysis

3. Choose the length of the data

4. Examine the data

5. Learn the history of the data

6. Choose your time frame

7. Detrend and Interpolate the data

8. Analyze the next higher compression to find Dominant Cycles

9. Analyze the data

10. Experiment with holdouts

11. Make a cycle projection

12. Set up a trade with Trend, Timing and Beat Cycles

13. Apply price techniques

14. Use technical and other tools for the final setup

Steps in a Cycle Analysis

This list shows the steps that an analyst must follow to do a complete cycle analysis.

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Cycle Projection

SECTION 5: MAKING & USING AN ANALYSIS A COURSE IN CYCLES

Understanding what a Cycle Projection is, and what it is for, is important, but it is only the be-ginning of a complete cycle analysis. It gives and overall forecast, but does not set up a trade.

Dominant Cycles

Dominant Cycles demand that you determine your time frame

Use Nominal Cycles

How to determine a Dominant Cycle

Which makes more money?

How long do you stay in a trade? Risk Management and Time Periods K-Ratios

Dominant Cycles were cycles that Hurst chose to nominalize. We use monthly data to find Dominant Cycles in weekly data, and we use weekly data to find Dominant Cycles in daily data. The ultimate arbiter of what is a Dominant Cycle for a trader is his or her trading time frame.

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Cycle Trading Topology

SECTION 5: MAKING & USING AN ANALYSIS A COURSE IN CYCLES

The cycle context – the next higher compression, i.e., weekly is the context for daily, as monthly is for weekly

Trend Cycles

Timing Cycles

Beat Cycles

Cycle Typology in trading refers to the way in which cycles are used to set up a trade. Hurst used nominal cycles, and he typically divided longer cycles by halves and by thirds to find Sub-Dominant Cycles. We have found three types of trading cycles, Trend Cycles, Timing Cycles and Beat Cycles.

Is This a “Dominant Cycle”?

The determination a Dominant Cycle is both objective and subjective. Still, it must rely on an excellent statistical test that objectively supplies information that is meaningful to the analyst’s trading frame.

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The Shorter Cycle is Dominant

SECTION 5: MAKING & USING AN ANALYSIS A COURSE IN CYCLES

Trend, Timing and Beat Cycles

We recommend using the shortest Dominant Cycle derived from the best statistical tests that will fit into the analyst’s trading time frame. This slide compares a longer and a shorter Domi-nant Cycle.

A Trend Cycle, a Timing Cycle, and a Beat Cycle are depicted in this slide. A trade can be set up by following these cycle techniques.

The Beat Cycle, the Trend Cycle and the Timing Cycle are important trading cycles, but the Long Cycle is not

Dominant Cycles are important elements to financial markets based on the Trader’s time frame. They can not be divided into sub-dominant cycles and do not need to be tested statistically.

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SECTION 6: CYCLE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

Oscillator / Cycle Combinations

Trading Cycle Typology & Nominalization

Cycle Envelopes

Half Cycle Projections

Price Targeting Fibonacci Retracements Regression Channels Seasonal Tendencies

Cycle Techniques of a ground breaking nature that were pioneered by Jim Hurst and by others will be discussed here.

Oscillator Cycle Combinations

Oscillator / Cycle Combinations, another Hurst innovation, were made famous by the work of Walter Bressert. They are valuable in identifying the actual cycle tops and bottoms when using Nominal Cycles

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Concept of Envelopes

SECTION 6: CYCLE TECHNIQUES A COURSE IN CYCLES

Half Cycle Projections

Curvilinear Envelopes come from another concept pioneered by Hurst. They are a precursor to cycle bands, like the Bollinger bands depicted here. Envelopes can forecast the coming trade range and they are valuable in determining cyclical price levels.

Half Cycle Projections were also developed by Jim Hurst, but they were made famous in the 1980s through the work of Peter Eliades, editor of Stockmarket Cycles. This tool also provides price projections to cycle timing.

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Price Techniques

SECTION 6: CYCLE TECHNIQUES A COURSE IN CYCLES

In addition to the work of Hurst, the Foundation has added three additional price techniques to its software, Regression Channels, Price Projections and Fibonacci Retracements.

Seasonal Study

Seasonal tendencies are yet one more tool for understanding price action in the market, and they are a worthwhile addition to our cycle tool box.

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Integrating an Analysis

SECTION 6: CYCLE TECHNIQUES A COURSE IN CYCLES

Once cycles are found the real work begins

Understanding the relationships of data series to one another

Understanding sameness and difference

Create “what-if” scenarios

Develop sign posts for projection Develop contrary indicators and signs Cycle Synchronies

Integration of Analysis is the final step in setting up a trade. Listed on this slide are the meas-ures we take to accomplish this.

The 54-Year Cycle

Cycle Synchronies is an important concept discovered by E.R. Dewey. Synchronies indicate that finan-cial markets are interrelated and they show the importance of performing an inter-market cycle analysis.

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The General Plan of Analysis

SECTION 5: MAKING & USING AN ANALYSIS A COURSE IN CYCLES

Get the cycle context

Decide about your time frame

Get the Trend Cycle from the compression higher than the data you wish to analyze

Find your cycles

Review the tools and execute

This slide reviews the approach to setting up a trade and doing analysis. One of the most impor-tant aspects to this is setting up the cyclic context, where, again, intermarket cyclic analysis proves essential.

Techsignal: a Complete Cyclic Toolbox

Techsignal Software is unique because it is the only modern PC-integrated software that allows the user to perform a complete cycle analysis and useful projection. http://techsignal.com.

Hurst innovations include: the Oscillator / Cycle Combination, Half Cycle Projections, and Envelopes

Techsignal is based on the Foundation’s original proprietary algorithms.

30

The 68th Annual Conference The Foundation held its annual conference in Albuquer-que, NM on Sunday, Jan.9th through Jan.11th, 2009. Theme of this year’s meeting was "How to Survive the Next Four Years and Prosper Into 2012 - The 'New Deal' According to Cycles". Featured speakers included: Richard Mogey "The Cycles Context" Samuel Shriner, Jr. "The World According to Cycles" Dr. Peter Beamish - "Rhythmic Time" David Perales - "State of the Foundation" Anthony Shack - "Emergency Preparedness" Jake Bernstein - "Seasonal Signs" K. David Katzmire - "Kala-Rythms - the 432 Year Cycle" Dr. Anthony Herbst - "The Mortgage Ind. of the Future" Bill Sarrubi - "Cycles in History and the East" Leslie Botha - "Cycles of Health" Timothy Fife - "The Future of Investing" Sessions were streamed live online and were also available for delayed pre-recorded viewing to all registered partici-pants “Thus Spake Zarathustra” Cycles Conference 2009 This conference was hosted by the Foundation in New Mexico on February 27th through March 1st. The focus of the conference was to look back some 5000 years ago when Cycle Research began with the Sun, Moon, and Planets and to grasp how it will soon be statistically and mathematically understood and perfected via the Sun, Moon, and Planets…” Topics covered in this reserved seating for limited attendance included: - The Origins of Cycle Analysis & Discovery of Rhythms - China - India - Babylonians and the Egyptians - Greece and Rome - Hellenistic Developments - Renaissance - The 19th Century - Modern Trends and the Computer Age - The birth of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and its mathematic techniques - David Perales, Foundation Director and President, and his independent research 1970 - Present - Introducing “Barydynamic Synchronies” as probable energy behind the phenomena of cycles. - Making Money in the Markets with PDM and the Firebird Elite Trading Platform - The Probable “Cause of Cycles” Revisited – “Something out there…”

Project Firebird for Foundation development an-nounced its transition from Phase I to Phase II This multi-year plan for Foundation restoration and advancement reached a milestone in early February, 2009, as the Foundation announced it was transitioning into the next phase of its development. Phase One developed digitization of Foundation archives and holdings to bring precious re-search into the hands of more people. Sales of software licenses during this phase bootstrapped the resource devel-opment as the Foundation sold its own cycles analysis programs. Phase Two embarks upon the creation of an investment fund to utilize some of the results of our analysis to return revenues for expansion and development. This phase brings to a close the sale of software licenses to avoid the possibility of market saturation of predictive quality soft-ware of this type and to enable the Foundation to move from a financial prediction based model to a service model from which to derive income. Phase Three will develop buildings and grounds to per-petuate the academic study of cycles at all levels, such as, university, corporate, professional, and nonprofessional endeavors. So far we have met our projected timetables for these developments and the progress continues.

New Web Site at the Foundation CyclesCelebrities.com officially opened on March 9, 2009 to offer selections from the Foundation video archive featuring speakers at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Featured speakers that can be viewed on the site include author Lt. Cmdr. David Williams, Foundation Re-search Director Gertrude Shirk, developer of the McClellan oscillator Sherman McClellan, Cycletrend newsletter creator Jim Tillman, Foundation Director Rich-ard Mogey, and many more as well as an audio file of Lady Margaret Thatcher’s visit to the Foundation.

What’s New at the Foundation?

On the Web

31

Lunar Phase and Dow Jones Industrial Highs

BY DAVID McMINN

ECONOMIC CYCLES

If you list Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) market highs chronologically, they will not correlate with lunar phase. However, if you list the highs by month – day (year ignored) excellent relationships can be established. If the peaks at the beginning of a bear market occur around the same month, the Moon and Sun will be in similar ecliptical segments, giving rise to similar lunar phases and similar market outcomes. Moon Sun cycles can be intimately linked to market activity. Background. The dates for the DJIA highs were sourced from fiendbear.com for the period 1896 to 1996. The annual one day (AOD) fall is the biggest one day percentage fall in the DJIA during the year beginning March 1. The degree on the ecliptical circle has been abbreviated to Eo, while the angular degree between the Moon and Sun (lunar phase) has been given as Ao. DJIA Highs Table 1 presents the historical highs at the beginning of a bear market as listed by fiendbear.com. Those events timed near the same date (month – day) tended to have similar lunar phase, because they had the Sun sited in the same ecliptical segment, with the Moon sited in another segment. The only anomalous period happened between September 25 and December 15, when no overall lunar phase pattern could be determined. Otherwise, the connection between lunar phase and seasonal stock market highs held up very well.

Source of DJIA Market Highs: fiendbear.com. If DJIA highs occur near the same date, then close parallels can also arise on how the ensuing market unfolds. The best example occurred for the September 3, 1929 and August 25, 1987 record peaks, both of which took place just after the new Moon and both were followed 55 days later by the most spectacular October panics in US history. The violent market decline lasted only a few months, with the DJIA hitting bottom on November 13, 1929 and December 4, 1987. For 1929/1987, there was an interval of 717.0 lunar months between the spring lows, the record highs, the autumn highs, the panics, the recoveries and major post crash one day falls (Carolan, 1998, McMinn, 2006). Other examples may be given. The July 16, 1990 and July 17, 1998 DJIA peaks happened just prior to the 3rd quarter Moon and were followed by AOD falls in August. Both markets declined by around –20% and the financial distress was brief with lows on October 11, 1990 and August 31, 1998. The DJIA highs on November 19, 1909 and November 21, 1916 were followed by AOD falls a few months later on February 7, 1910 and February 1, 1917 respectively. The market slump extended well after the peaks, with the lows being reached on September 25, 1911 and November 19, 1917.

www.davidmcminn.com

Market Highs Number of Highs

Sun Eo

Moon Eo

Phase Ao

Jan 16 – Feb 28 2 295 - 325 195 - 235 235 – 295

Mar 01 – Aug 14 7 330 - 115 310 - 055 270 – 335

Aug 15 – Sep 10 3 150 - 165 160 - 180 000 – 015

Sep 11 – Sep 25 2 165 - 180 150 - 160 330 – 350

Sep 25 – Dec 15 7 No overall pattern

Dec 16 – Jan 15 4 260 - 295 335 - 030 075 – 095

Table 1

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The October 9, 2007 DJIA Record High The 2007 - 2008 market crisis has historical parallels. The record DJIA high occurred on October 9, 2007, which was close to September highs in 1895, 1899 and 1912. Each of the four highs was followed by a major crash 104 to 112 days later (see Table 2) and a protracted market decline.

(a) Based on the 12 Stock Average index. (b) This date witnessed worldwide stock market panics, although the US market was closed on the day due to the Martin Luther King Jr holiday. Even so, January 21, 2008 has been taken as the DJIA AOD fall.

We are now going through the long bear market period. Unfortunately, timing the lows is difficult, as there are no simple rules to follow. The Moon Sun effect in financial activity is poorly understood and the potential for accurate market forecasting remains very limited. 2009 Baja California Earthquake The August 3, 2009 Baja California earthquake (mag 6.9) happened within the 9/56 year cycle. However the 9/56 year grid in Table 1 had to be extended the left hand side to include Sequence 25 and the 2009 Baja Californian event. It will be very interesting to see if there is another significant Californian quake in the months October to December. Years in bold contained big quakes (mag => 6.9) in the year ending Dec 21. * Asterisks denote the number of quakes in a given year.

As noted in the main text, seismic seasonality occurred within the 9/56 year cycle. Importantly, three major Californian earthquakes occurred in the 1.3 months ended August 20.

\

Summarised from McMinn, David. Market Timing: Moon Sun Research 2006 – 2009. To be published. References: Carolan, Christopher. Autumn Panics. The Market Technician. Journ.of the Soc. of Technical Analysts. p 12. Jul. ‘98. fiendbear.com. DJIA Bear Markets of the Past 100 Years. www.fiendbear.com/bearenc1.htm McMinn, David. Market Timing By The Moon & The Sun. Privately published. 2006. © 2009. David McMinn. All rights reserved.

Market High

Interval AOD Fall > -4.50%

Interval BM Low

1895 (a) Sep 04

107 days 1895 (a) Dec 20

232 days 1896

Aug 08 1899

Sep 05 104 days

1899 Dec 18

280 days 1900

Sep 24 1912

Sep 30 112 days

1913 Jan 20

556 days 1914

July 14 2007

Oct 09 104 days

2008 (b) Jan 21

???? ????

Table 2

THE 9/56 YEAR CYCLE & MAJOR CALIFORNIAN EARTHQUAKES

Sq 25 Sq 34 Sq 43 Sq 52 Sq 05

1803 + 9 1812 ** + 9 1921

1841 + 9 1850 + 9 1859 + 9 1868 * + 9 1877

1897 + 9 1906 * + 9 1915 ** + 9 1924 + 9 1933 *

1953 + 9 1962 + 9 1971 + 9 1980 * + 9 1989 *

2009 *

Sq 07 Sq 16 Sq 25

1823 + 9 1832 + 9 1841

1879 + 9 1888 + 9 1897

1935 + 9 1944 + 9 1953

1991 Jul 12 Aug 17 + 9 2000 2009 Aug 03

33

Professor S. Afanasiev’s Nanocycle Method

BY RAY TOMES Russian Translation by Michael Taler

Cycles Research Institute 2005

LUNAR CYCLES

Whenever the moon, earth and sun are in a straight line it is possible to have eclipses. This can only happen at full moon for lunar eclipses and new moon for solar eclipses. But it does not happen every full and new moon, because sometimes the moon passes above or below the direct line between the sun and earth. When either node of the moon's orbit is at or near the direction between the earth and sun then it is possible to have eclipses. Eclipses are not important in the nanocycles method, however at the same time as eclipses occur, the tidal pull of the sun and moon are fully combined to make the very strongest tides. At other times the moon may pass up to 5 degrees above or below the line connecting the earth and sun and the tidal range is not so extreme. These spring tides as they are often called can happen at any time of the year and at present come at an interval of a little under 6 months. There are other factors that affect the strength of tides also, such as whether the moon is at its closest point to the earth when full or new moon occurs and whether the earth is at its closest point to the sun. The whole situation is quite complex and is intended to be the subject of an article in its own right in a future issue of CRJ. Because the period of the nodal cycle is gradually changing over time, finding that period in geological deposits allows the date of the deposit to be determined moderately accurately, depending on the number of varves in the sample. The Nanocycles Method goes further than this however, it looks at the interaction effects between the nodal cycle period and the year. This requires some further explanation.

A new method of dating geological deposits has been devised by Professor S. Afanasiev and described in his 1991 book “Nanocycles Method”. The book is in Russian which the author cannot read, but with text translation help from Michael Taler, the tables largely explain themselves to someone who knows about the moons orbital parameters. This article is not intended to be a complete translation or review of the book, but only to deal with matters relating to the dating of geological deposits. There is considerable extra material in the book, although this may be seen as the central theme. The lunar node cycle, which is presently 18.6 years, affects the rainfall on a 9.3 year cycle and this shows up as varying thickness layers of deposits, or varves, in geological formations. However the moon's orbit is gradually getting larger over time and so its period is slowing down. The rate of movement of the nodes is also decelerating and Professor Afanasiev has determined the accurate nodal cycle period for the whole of the last 600 million years. The cycle of the lunar node is important in affecting the weather because it plays a part in determining tides in the atmosphere, oceans, and solid body of the earth. The atmospheric tides affect rainfall which in turn affects river flows and hence the deposition of geological varves, or annual deposits in geological layers. The plane of the moon's orbit is tilted about 5 degrees with respect to the earth's equatorial axis which in turn is tilted by around 23 degrees to the plane of the earth's orbit around the sun. None of these planes remains stationary, so this results in a merry little dance with the plane of the moon's orbit rotating most rapidly about earth's equatorial axis. The places where the plane of the moon's orbit crosses the plane of the earth's orbit are called the nodes. There is an ascending node when the moon is moving northward and a descending node when it is moving southward.

34

At the present time, with a nodal cycle of 9.3 years, successive nodal cycles begin 0.3 years later in the seasons each cycle. Therefore after 3 or 4 cycles the nodal cycle start return to the same time of year again. The average period of the cycle when the nodal cycle comes at the same time of year is 9.3/0.3 or 31 years. Specific occurrences [Note: this term specific occurrences was first used in the author's paper “Towards a Unified Theory of Cycles” at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles Conference in 1990 and means common exact cycles intervals as distinguished from long term cycles periods] of nearly the same season, within 0.1 year, will occur after 28, 65 and 93 years and so on. The seasonal interaction is very important, because sometimes heavy rainfall happens in only a few months of the year and the node being at just the right configuration at that time may an important factor. The 9.3 year nodal period is the present situation, but when the nodal cycle was only slightly shorter at 9.2 years, the seasonal interaction was then 9.2/0.2 or 46 years. So changing the nodal cycle period by just 0.1 year changed the seasonal interaction period by 15 years. Therefore the seasonal interaction period is a very sensitive indicator of the nodal period and therefore age of the geological deposit. But Professor Afanasiev obviously asked “Why stop there?” because he looked at further levels of interaction with the seasons. Some of these cycles may be hundreds or even thousands of years long, but provided the deposit is extensive enough, such cycles may be identified. The Nanocycles Method then consists of identifying all the cycles in a geological deposit and then looking for that combination in Professor Afanasiev's table which has a listing for each 0.2 million years for the last 600 million years. However interpolation is possible so that accuracy of dating is only limited by the length of the deposit. The thought occurred to me that perhaps all the geological deposits of any region of the world may be linked up in a grand scheme in the same way that overlapping tree ring patterns are linked in dendrochronology thus allowing dating right down to the year! This thought has obviously occurred to others also and is known as incremental dating.

There has been a great deal of discussion concerning the 650 to 700 million year old Elatina deposits reported by George Williams in which he found a 12.077 year cycle with modulations of 314 and 157 years. It also shows cycles alternating in strength which is an important clue. Debate has occurred about whether this is an ancient record of the sunspot cycle or a seasonal variation with monthly varves. A third possibility is that these cycles are just the ones described by Professor Afanasiev and that a very accurate dating is possible. Using the nanocycles method, the Elatina formations can be dated to 658.28 million years ago. Confirmation is strong that the nanocycles identification is correct, because a 12.077 year period is expected to produce a further period of 12.077/0.077 = 157 years, exactly matching one of the reported longer cycles. Because the lunar nodal cycle found in geological deposits is actually half of the full cycle, alternate cycles represent the ascending and descending nodes. This combines with the other orbital factors such as the closeness of the three relevant bodies in space to make alternate cycles different and leads to alternate cycles being stronger and weaker. This is an additional confirmation that the Elatina formation cycles could be caused by the lunar nodal period, although a similar thing does often happen with the sunspot cycle, so that can be understood as a confusing factor.

- - - - - It seems that this method is unknown in the west and that it would be well worthwhile to have the book translated into English. If there is a sponsor for this work then the Cycles Research Institute would be pleased to investigate making arrangements for translation and publishing.

35

Holy Hormones Honey! Menstrual Health Education Series Understanding Your Mood, Mind and Hormone Cycle

BY LESLIE CAROL BOTHA & H. SANDRA CHEVALIER-BATIK

BIOLOGICAL CYCLES

Published by Pleiades Publishing Services, Co.

PO Box 1638; Buda, TX 78610 Chapter 1 “The purpose of the Holy Hormones Menstrual Health Education series is to support women in understanding that our cyclical hormonal flow is what re-aligns us with the natural cycles of the universe. The same lunar forces that cause the ebb and flow of the tides pull our hormone cycle. Understanding and living with the natural changes of our hormone cycle helps us understand the tides of physical, mental and emotional behaviors that shape our lives.”

Leslie C. Botha Women’s Health Educator, Radio Talk Show Host

Internationally Recognized Expert on Women’s Hormone Cycles 2006 Recipient of the Edward R. Dewey Award for

“Pioneering Work in Female Hormones and Behaviors” Up until now, women have been told that their menstrual cycle is not related to any other function in the body. We have been told to ignore it, deny it, hide it, suppress it; forget about it. However, recent scientific discoveries have proven that surges in hormone levels that take place throughout the menstrual cycle at a bio-chemical level, directly impact a woman’s body every single day of her cycle. Due to the different levels of female hormones that are secreted, a woman changes every day of her menstrual life. It is simply not logical to deny that these cyclic hormone fluctuations affect other systems of the body, including our mental and emotional behavior. In October of 2005, Scientific American and the BBC (British Broadcasting Company) reported “Brain Changes Reveal Menstrual Cycle Pattern.” The article states: “For the first time, scientists have pinpointed an area of the brain involved in a woman’s menstrual cycle. The research, reported by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows contrasts in activity over the course of a month and provides a baseline for understanding the emotional and behavioral changes that 75 percent of all women report experiencing before, during and after their period. Now that women’s hormonal fluctuations are recognized as a scientific fact it is time to finally throw out the “syndromes” and concepts of diseases and illness that prevented women from understanding and acknowledging their cyclical selves. It is our belief that fluctuating hormonal levels within our bodies can affect our disposition in dealing with others at a particular moment, as well as our emotional response or attitude toward something seen, heard, or otherwise experienced.

36

It is our premise, that once women understand the cyclical hormone changes that occur throughout the menstrual cycle, they will become aware how those changes affect them physically, mentally and emotionally. In addition, women will have a new view of daughters, mothers, friends and co-workers in their lives and begin to recognize their pattern of cyclical change. Our research has shown that when women begin to live with normal cyclical hormone fluctuations, they will be less fatigued, more creative and more understanding of themselves and others. It is estimated that the median number of lifetime menstrual cycles is 451.3, corresponding to 34.7 years of menstrual activity if considering an average of 13 cycles per year.[1] This research was based on “lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles” and was computed from age at first menstrual period (12 years) to age menopause (51 years). In North and South America, the age of the first menstrual period continues to drop, and the age of menopause onset is rising. In the coming decades, this trend will lead to an increased number of menstrual cycles experienced by women during their reproductive years. Common sense alone suggests that if a woman lives against that cycle for year after year, the endocrine system, which regulates cyclical hormone secretions and menstruation is going to be weakened dramatically by the time menopause arrives. Yet another reason why menopausal women struggle through another natural cycle of their lives. May of us have become familiar with the term “immunocompromised;” indicating that the immune system weakens over time due to an onslaught of internal and external factors. What we are suggesting is that women can become “endocrine compromised”; i.e., the endocrine system weakens over years because we are unaware of our natural, feminine cycle and how it is inter-related to the endocrine system that balances and regulates our physical, mental and emotional functions. A hysterectomy (a) is the second most common surgery among women in the United States. (The most common is cesarean section delivery (b).) Each year, more than 600,000 hysterectomies are performed. One in three women in the United States has had a hysterectomy by age 60.[2] Knowing what you do now – is this fact any surprise? After years of living unaware of the influence the endocrine system has on our lives, every single day; suffering through hormone fluctuations that keep us feeling like we are on a constant roller coaster while the men in our lives function on the same amount of testosterone day after day, month after month, year after year, is it any wonder why women feel that they are barely able to cope with the day to day demands of their lives and their bodies? Over the last 30 years, women and men have come to realize how diet, exercise, and life style choices impact our health. The missing link for women is having the education to understand that menstrual health is equally crucial to our physical, mental and emotional health and well being.

37

When women are most disease-resistant

Over a decade ago, Leslie found these clips while thumbing through the magazines in a doctor’s office. Millions of women have suffered in the meantime; through a lack of education and the false premise that taking ‘pharmaceutically manufactured chemicals’ will alleviate the mental, emotional and physical misery of not living with the body’s natural rhythms.

Keeping in step with your body’s natural rhythms could add years to your life, especially is you are one of the 40,000 to 50,000 pre-menopausal women who will face breast cancer surgery this year. According to a recent “Lancet” study report on a twelve year study of forty-one women with breast cancer, those whose surgery is preformed near the times of ovulation are four to fives times less likely to suffer relapse and death than those who are operated on during or nearer their menstrual period. Why the dramatic difference? Researcher William J.M. Hrushesky, M.D., senior oncologist at the Albany VA Medical Center in Albany, N.Y., speculates that a woman’s immune defenses are likely to vary with her menstrual cycle and may become most potent with ovulation. So her ability to fight disease may be significantly higher that point of her cycle.

“Women Right Now”

Glamour, Magazine, April 1990

While most women hardly need to be told that their hormone cycle affects their body; few of us suspected it could make the difference between life and death. But research with breast-cancer patients is starting to suggest that scheduling a patient’s surgery according to her cycle may increase her chances of being cured. And that’s just the most prominent example to emerge from a small but growing exploration of the relationship between women’s monthly hormonal changes and common illnesses, ranging from migraines to irritable bowel syndrome.

~ Catherine Gifford ALifesaving News About Your Period@

McCall’s, July 1993

It is our personal goal, why we have researched and written the Menstrual Health Education series, and the purpose of this publication, to change the way women think about their bodies. Women have not only the right, but the but the responsibility to understand how the mind, body and spirit are inexorably linked, and take a proactive role in their wellness.

38

Footnotes

(a) A hysterectomy is an operation to remove a woman’s uterus (womb). The uterus is where a baby grows when a woman is pregnant. In some cases, the ovaries and fallopian tubes also are removed. These organs are located in a woman’s lower abdomen. The cervix is the lower end of the uterus. The ovaries are organs that produce eggs and hormones. The fallopian tubes carry eggs from the ovaries to the uterus.

(b) A caesarean section, or c-section, is a form of childbirth in which a surgical incision is

made through a mother’s abdomen and uterus to deliver one or more babies. In the United States the caesarean rate has risen 46% since 1996, reaching a level of 30.2%

in 2005.[3]

[1] Lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles and serum sex hormone levels in postmenopausal women

Mariana Chavez-MacGregor, corresponding author, Carla H. van Gils, Yvonee T. van der Schauw, Evelyn Manninkhof, Paulus A.H. van Noard, and Petra H.M. Peeters, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center, STR 6.131, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, Campus Box 8121, 660 South Euclid, St. Louis, MO 63110 USA Mariana Chavez-MacGregor, Email: mchavezzm@im.wustl.edu. March 16, 2007

[2] Office on Women’s Health

in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services http://www.Awoman.gov/faq/hysterectomy.htm#b Reviewed by: Dr. Edward Trimble, MD, MPH Head Gynecologic Cancer Therapeutics and Quality of Cancer Care Therapeutics Clinical Investigations Branch Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program National Cancer Institute Division of Cancer Treatment and Diagnosis

[3] Preliminary births for 2005: Infant and Maternal Health. National Center for Health Statistics. Retrieved on 2006-11-23.

Understanding Your Mood, Mind and Hormone Cycle© can be found at: Holy Hormones Honey – The Greatest Story Never Told ( HolyHormones.com )

or at Iconic Woman: ( IconicWoman.com )

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