vivimed labs ltd

16
Vivimed Labs Ltd. BUY - 1 of 16 - Thursday 16 th Feb, 2012 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price ` 468 CMP ` 343 FY14 PE 5.5x Index Details We initiate coverage on Vivimed Labs Ltd as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 468 (target 7.5x FY14 EPS). At CMP of ` 343, the stock is trading at 6.0x and 5.5x its estimated earnings for FY13 & FY14 representing a potential upside of ~36% over a period of 24 months. Vivimed Labs Ltd is a diversified global company with a unique portfolio of products in the Specialty Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals categories. Niche product portfolio in specialty chemicals coupled with significant inorganic growth through its recent acquisitions in the pharma space should help the company post an earnings growth of 31.7% CAGR over the period FY11 to FY14. Niche product portfolio and expansions to drive future growth The matured Home and Personal care (H&PC) global markets are expected to grow at CAGR of 3.2% to USD 368 bn by 2015 while in India the H&PC markets are expected to grow at a faster pace of 12.2% to USD 8 bn by 2015. Vivimed being well embedded as a global quality supplier of active ingredient to the H&PC industry is best placed to benefit from this growth. We expect Vivimed’s overall revenues to grow at a CAGR of 39.9% to ` 1139.9 crore over the forecast period of FY11-14 with 50.0% of the revenues coming for the specialty chemicals product portfolio and the balance from the capacity expansions and inorganic growth in the pharmaceutical space. Recent acquisitions to fuel revenue growth In a strategic move, to enhance presence across the value chain and hasten entry to the regulated markets (which generally has a 36-48 months penetration lead time), Vivimed acquired Uquifa, a 75 year old API and intermediates manufacturing company. Considering Vivimed’s, strong track record of successful acquisitions, we expect the company to effectively leverage these acquisitions and add value. Besides Uquifa, Vivimed has also acquired two small formulation companies Klar Sehen Pvt Ltd & Octtantis Nobel Labs for a consideration of ` 24 crore and ` 5 crore, respectively. These acquisitions would help Vivimed reduce costs by achieving manufacturing synergies and expand sales and profitability by increasing market and client penetration. We expect, Vivimed to earn revenues to the tune of ` 352 crore in FY14 from these acquisitions. Sensex 18,154 Nifty 5,522 BSE 100 9,568 Industry Pharma Scrip Details Mkt Cap (` cr) 348 BVPS (`) 194 O/s Shares (Cr) 1.4 AvgVol Lacs) 0.7 52 Week H/L 354/213 Div Yield (%) 0.6 FVPS (`) 10.0 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 43.6 DIIs 1.6 FIIs 18.2 Public 36.6 Total 100 Vivimed vs. Sensex Key Financials (` in Cr) Y/E Mar Net Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (X) EV/ EBITDA(X) 2011 416.0 84.1 48.8 48.0 - 24.8 16.4 7.1 11.9 2012E 636.2 126.5 58.9 42.3 -12.0 13.0 14.8 8.1 7.9 2013E 982.1 176.7 91.6 57.1 35.0 16.9 16.6 6.0 5.7 2014E 1139.9 205.5 111.6 62.4 9.3 17.2 17.5 5.5 4.9

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Page 1: Vivimed labs ltd

Vivimed Labs Ltd.

BUY

- 1 of 16 - Thursday 16th Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Target Price ` 468 CMP ` 343 FY14 PE 5.5x

Index Details We initiate coverage on Vivimed Labs Ltd as a BUY with a Price

Objective of ` 468 (target 7.5x FY14 EPS). At CMP of ` 343, the stock is trading at 6.0x and 5.5x its estimated earnings for FY13 & FY14 representing a potential upside of ~36% over a period of 24 months. Vivimed Labs Ltd is a diversified global company with a unique portfolio of products in the Specialty Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals categories. Niche product portfolio in specialty chemicals coupled with significant inorganic growth through its recent acquisitions in the pharma space should help the company post an earnings growth of 31.7% CAGR over the period FY11 to FY14.

Niche product portfolio and expansions to drive future growth

The matured Home and Personal care (H&PC) global markets are expected to grow at CAGR of 3.2% to USD 368 bn by 2015 while in India the H&PC markets are expected to grow at a faster pace of 12.2% to USD 8 bn by 2015. Vivimed being well embedded as a global quality supplier of active ingredient to the H&PC industry is best placed to benefit from this growth. We expect Vivimed’s overall revenues to grow at a CAGR of 39.9% to ` 1139.9 crore over the forecast period of

FY11-14 with 50.0% of the revenues coming for the specialty chemicals product portfolio and the balance from the capacity expansions and inorganic growth in the pharmaceutical space.

Recent acquisitions to fuel revenue growth

In a strategic move, to enhance presence across the value chain and hasten entry to the regulated markets (which generally has a 36-48 months penetration lead time), Vivimed acquired Uquifa, a 75 year old API and intermediates manufacturing company. Considering Vivimed’s, strong track record of successful acquisitions, we expect the company to effectively leverage these acquisitions and add value. Besides Uquifa, Vivimed has also acquired two small formulation companies Klar Sehen Pvt Ltd & Octtantis Nobel Labs for a consideration of ` 24 crore and ` 5 crore, respectively. These acquisitions would help Vivimed reduce costs by achieving manufacturing synergies and expand sales and profitability by increasing market and client penetration. We expect, Vivimed to earn revenues to the tune of `

352 crore in FY14 from these acquisitions.

Sensex 18,154

Nifty 5,522

BSE 100 9,568

Industry Pharma

Scrip Details

Mkt Cap (` cr) 348

BVPS (`) 194

O/s Shares (Cr) 1.4

AvgVol Lacs) 0.7

52 Week H/L 354/213

Div Yield (%) 0.6

FVPS (`) 10.0

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholders %

Promoters 43.6

DIIs 1.6

FIIs 18.2

Public 36.6

Total 100

Vivimed vs. Sensex

Key Financials (` in Cr)

Y/E Mar Net

Revenue EBITDA PAT EPS

EPS Growth (%)

RONW (%)

ROCE (%)

P/E (X) EV/

EBITDA(X)

2011 416.0 84.1 48.8 48.0 - 24.8 16.4 7.1 11.9

2012E 636.2 126.5 58.9 42.3 -12.0 13.0 14.8 8.1 7.9

2013E 982.1 176.7 91.6 57.1 35.0 16.9 16.6 6.0 5.7

2014E 1139.9 205.5 111.6 62.4 9.3 17.2 17.5 5.5 4.9

Page 2: Vivimed labs ltd

- 2 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Significant entry barriers to ensure limited competition leading to sustainability of revenues

In the active ingredients market where product quality has precedence over price, becoming a preferred supplier to global majors is a strenuous and prolonged process. Vivimed with its quality offering has established strong relationships with global majors and over time has embedded itself within these multinationals and now is a supplier across a wide range of products.

Valuation

At the CMP of ` 343, Vivimed is trading at 6.0x and 5.5x its estimated earnings for

FY13 and FY14. We initiate coverage on Vivimed Labs Ltd as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 468 (7.5x FY14 EPS) over a period of 24 months.

We have valued the stock at 36% premium to its historical average valuation of 5.5x considering the robust product portfolio and the recent acquisitions. Vivimed’s earnings are expected to grow at a 31.7% CAGR over the forecast period FY11-14 which is far ahead of the sector’s growth. Post the integration of the acquisitions, we expect Vivimed to be re-rated considering its enhanced global presence and broadened product portfolio. Though, mounting debt remains an overhang on the stock.

Page 3: Vivimed labs ltd

- 3 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company background

Vivimed was established in 1989 as a single product (VIV-20) and single location company. Since then the company has grown by leaps and bounds to emerge as a preferred supplier of several key ingredients to MNCs in the specialty chemicals & pharmaceutical segments. In the specialty chemical division, Vivimed is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of active ingredients within the Home & Personal Care products, and Industrial care products. While, in the pharmaceutical division, the company provides contract manufacturing services as well as undertakes manufacturing and marketing of branded formulations. In addition, Vivimed through timely acquisitions of James Robinson, Harmet International as well as the recent acquisition of Uquifa, has maintained its growth trajectory as well as further enhanced its presence in the global markets.

Vivimed Labs- Business Organization

VIVIMED LABS

Specialty

ChemicalsPharmaceuticals

Industrial

Care

Vivimed Labs

(Marketing &Distribution)

Formulations APIsActive

Ingredients

CRAMs

Vivimed Labs USA

(Production, Sales and

R&D)

Vivimed Labs UK

(Sales, Marketing and R&D)

Vivimed Labs India

(Prod, Dist & R&D)

Creative Healthcare

(Prod & Dist)

Klar Sehen Prod &

Marketing

Uquifa

Prod.,Sales and

Marketing

Octtantis Nobel

Distribution

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 4: Vivimed labs ltd

- 4 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Headquartered in Hyderabad, Vivimed operates out of 9 manufacturing facilities (6 domestic and 3 overseas), 3 R&D facilities (1 domestic and 2 overseas). It has a customer base spread across 50 countries with SBUs based in America (Vivimed Labs USA Inc) and Europe (Vivimed Labs Europe) along with a marketing office in China.

Niche product portfolio and expansions to drive future growth

The matured Home and Personal Care (H&PC) global markets are expected to grow to USD 368 bn by 2015 while the Indian H&PC markets are expected to grow at a faster pace of 12.2% to USD 8 bn by 2015. Vivimed being well embedded as a global quality supplier of the active ingredient to the H&PC industry is best placed to benefit from this growth. We expect Vivimed’s overall revenues to grow at a CAGR of 39.9% to ` 1139.9 crore over the forecast period of FY11-14 with 50.0% of the revenues coming for the specialty chemicals product portfolio and the balance from the capacity expansions and inorganic growth in the pharmaceutical space.

Revenue and Profitability trend

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

(%)Rs. Crore

Revenue EBIDTA Margin(%) PAT Margin(%)

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Manufacturing Plants of Vivimed Labs

Plant Location Manufacturing Details

Bidar Northern Karnataka Specialty Chemicals Sunscreens, Anti Microbial and Preservatives

Bonthapally Hyderabad Specialty Chemicals Home & Personal Care actives

Jeedimetla Hyderabad Formulation and R&D Dosage formulations

Haridwar Uttarakhand Formulations Sterile products - Small Volume Parentals

Kashipur Uttarakhand Formulations Non-Sterile Syrups, tablets, Capulses and dry powders.

Cuernavaca Mexico APIs Acquired through Uquifa Acquisition

Sant Celoni Spain APIs Acquired through Uquifa Acquisition

Llica de Vall Spain APIs Acquired through Uquifa Acquisition

Chouttuppal* Hyderabad Formulations Tablets & Capsules

Srikakulam** AP SEZ Synthetic organic chemicals

Triclossan CaGP

TriclosanCaGp

Avobenzone

TriclosanCaGp

Avobenzone Climbazole

TriclosanCaGp

Avobenzone Climbazole

Ben 4TCC

TriclosanCaGp

Avobenzone Climbazole

Ben 4TCC

StarcatZnPTO

Triclosan CaGp Avobenzone

Climbazole Ben 4TCC

StarcatZnPTOSAP*

AvisBen 4

Avis Ben 4

AvisBen-4

Dantuff-zEtone

AvisBen-4

Dantuff-zEtone

Co-GuarsVivinol

KSPL

150 MRs

50 Trade

Presence in North-East, Bihar & AP

OcttantisNobel Labs

Strong Distribution Reach

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 5: Vivimed labs ltd

- 5 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Specialty chemical business - a major contributor to growth

Led by ` 25 crore worth of expansions at its existing two specialty chemical plants, we expect the specialty chemical division to grow at a three year CAGR of 21.7% to `

570.3 crore by FY14. Vivimeds portfolio of active ingredients caters to nearly 75% of the global H&PC market (USD 268 bn, 3.2% CAGR) and with these enhanced capacities the company is expected to benefit immensely.

Specialty Chemicals-Revenue and EBITDA Margin

-

5

10

15

20

25

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

(%)Rs. Crore

Revenue EBIDTA Margin RHS (%)

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

H&PC Products dominates the specialty segments business

Specialty Chemicals

78%

Pharmaceuticals

22%

26%

18%

18%

13%

9%

6%

6%

2%1% 1%

Hair Care

Antimicrobles

Sun Care

Intermediaries

Oral Care

Photohromics

Other Chemicals

Imaging

Skin Care

Preservatives

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 6: Vivimed labs ltd

- 6 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Robust Industry growth to support revenue growth

James Robinson acquisition - complete portfolio offering in the Hair care segment. Vivimed’s product portfolio is dominated by the products in the Sun Care, Hair Care and Anti microbial segments. Post the acquisition of James Robinson’s, Vivimed has a complete portfolio of Hair Care products catering to each sub segment of Shampoos, Conditioners, and Hair Dyes. Vivimed also has a tie up with International Specialty Products (ISP) for the joint marketing of various sunscreen products thus expanding its base in Sun Care segment.

Global Personal Care Market Domestic Personal Care Ingredient Market

280 291 303 315 328 341 354 368

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

USD bn

350

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2009 2015

USD mn

Source:Vivimed,Ventura Research Source:Vivimed,Ventura Research

Global Personal Care Ingredient Market Global Personal Care Ingredient Market Breakup

10

15

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2015

USD bn

Skin care50%Hair

Care35%

Oral Care9%

Others6%

Source:Vivimed,Ventura Research Source:Vivimed,Ventura Research

Page 7: Vivimed labs ltd

- 7 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Industrial segment to complement growth in H&PC

In addition to Home & Personal Care segment, Vivimed caters to the Industrial Segment with products in photo chromatic dyes and imaging chemicals. In the photo chromatic segment, Vivimed is a world leader in the development of innovative photo chromic dyes manufactured and marketed under the name of Reversacol.

Product portfolio in Home & Personal Care

Divisions Products Description & End Uses Key Clients

VIV-20 Antibacterial For Toothpastes & Mouthwash

VIVCAL-G Nutraceutical, Dental enamel protection

VIVHEX Antibacterial for Mouthwash

VIVHEX-G Antibacterial for Mouthwash

AVIS Broad Spectrum UV-A Filter

CINNAMON UV- B Category 1 Filter

BEN-3 Oil Soluble UV-A & UV -B Filter

Ben-4 Water Soluble UV-A & UV -B Filter

OCTYNE-B Oil Soluble UV- B Filter

ETONE UA-A & UV- B Filter

VINTOX Anti-Oxidant & Anti-aging Molecule

VIVINOL Skin Lightening agent

TRU ALOE Skin Moisturizer

C-VITE Anti Wrinkle

DANTUFF-Z Broad Spectrum Anti Dandruff agent

DANTUFF-C Anti-Fungal agent in transparent Shampoos

DANTUFF-K Anti dandruff & Anti-Fungal agent

VIPIROX Anti dandruff agent

VIVIDINE Hair growth agent

CO-GUAR Emollients & Conditioners

COSVAT Anti-Fungal & Anti bacterial

VIVILIDE Wide Spectrum bacteriostatic

VIVMAX Antimicrobial & Germicidal

VIV-20 Antibacterial For Cosmetic & Toiletries

Unilever, ITC,

Dabur

Unilever,

BASF, J&J

Unilever,

P&G, Dabur,

BDF

Unilever,

P&G, L'Oreal,

BDF

BASF,

Sederma

Preservatives

Antimicrobials

Oral Care

Sun Care

Skin Care

Hair Care

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Product Portfolio in Industrial Care

Category Key Products Description End Uses Key Clients

Photochromic

DyesReversacol Patented high Performance dyes

Lenses, toys, films, Clothes,

Cosmetics like nail Varnish

Keystone, Corning,

Mildex Optical

Imaging

Chemicals

Phenidone

Dimezone

Nitroindazole

Black and White development agent

Black and white developing agent Anti-

fogging agent

X-rays, Photography Kodak, Fuji, LG

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 8: Vivimed labs ltd

- 8 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

SEZ facility on the cards

Vivimed is also establishing a SEZ in Andhra Pradesh at a cost of ` 120 crore to cater

to the growing export demand of synthetic organic chemicals in the H&PC segment. In addition, the company is expanding its product base by foraying into new segments with the development of a Skin lightening ingredient and chemicals for Printed Electronics. Since the SEZ is expected to commission post FY14, we have not factored these in our revenues.

Product portfolio and expansions in Pharma to further enhance value

Vivimed has a wide range of formulation products across therapeutic segments with significant presence in CRAMs.This segment is poised for major growth fuelled by capacity expansions and acquisitions. Vivimed is setting up a green field plant in Hyderabad, at an investment of ` 40 crore and is undertaking some de-bottlenecking

exercises at its existing Jeedimetla plant. Further the company has acquired Uquifa, Klar Sehen and Octtantis Nobel in the API and branded formulations space. Aided by these expansions and recent acquisitions, we expect the revenues to receive a major boost and grow at a CAGR of 78.8% to ` 569.6 crore over the forecast period (2011-

14).

Pharma - Revenue and EBIDTA Margin

-

5

10

15

20

25

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

(%)Rs. Crore

Revenue EBIDTA Margin RHS (%)

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 9: Vivimed labs ltd

- 9 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Recent acquisitions to fuel revenue growth

In a strategic move, to enhance presence across the value chain and hasten entry to the regulated markets (which generally has a 36-48 months penetration time), Vivimed acquired Uquifa, a 75 year old API and intermediates manufacturing company. Considering Vivimed’s, strong track record of successful acquisitions, we expect the company to effectively leverage the acquisition and add value. Besides Uquifa, Vivimed has also acquired two small formulation companies Klar Sehen Pvt Ltd & Octtantis Nobel Labs for a consideration of ` 24 crore and ` 5 crore

respectively. These acquisitions would help Vivimed reduce costs by achieving manufacturing synergies and expand sales and profitability by increasing market and client penetration. We estimate Vivimed to earn revenues to the tune of ` 352 crore in

FY14 from these acquisitions.

Vivimed Pharmaceutical Product Portfolio

CAPSULES/TABLETS SYRUPS & LIQUIDS SMALL VOLUME

PARENTALS

FLEXASUR

SPASMOCIP PLUS

CODARIN

BUTAPROXIVON

VALENZIA TABLETS

ARACHITOL TABLET

C PINK TABLET

CODAREX

INALGEL

VISCODYNE

BROZEDEX

CELADRIN

MITS CODEINE

LINCTUS

CANDID LOTION

CANDID MOUTH

PAINT

OTRIVIN

NASIVION MOIST

NASIVION

CANDBIOTIC EAR

DROP

OTRIVIN NASAL

SPRAY

TOBROP

CRAMS

MERCK

NOVARTIS

RANBAXY

GLENMARK

CIPLA

LUPIN

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 10: Vivimed labs ltd

- 10 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Uquifa- a unique value proposition

Vivimed has acquired it for a consideration of USD 55 million (` 286 crore) funded

through a debt equity mix of 65:35. Vivimed’s equity infusion of USD 20 million is via an SPV (Vivimed Labs Spain S.L), debt financing of USD 25 million has been provided by Exim Bank and balance USD 10 million is by the way of deferred payments.

Other two acquisitions in branded formulations to enhance presence in domestic biz

In addition to Uquifa, Vivimed in its acquisition spree acquired two formulation companies in India, Klar Sehen Pvt Ltd (KSPL) (100% stake) and Octtantis Nobel

Profile of Major strategic acquisitions

Acquisition James Robinson Ltd

Harmet International

Klar Sehen Pvt Ltd

Octtantis Nobel Labs

Uquifa, Spain & Mexico

Year of Acquisition

2008 2009 2011 2011 2011

Cost of Acquisition

USD 21 mn USD 3 mn Rs 24 crore Rs 5 crore USD 55 mn

Stake 100% 100% 100% 60% 100%

Products

Photochromic Dyes and Imaging Chemicals

Sales and Distribution

Ophthalmic Products Pharmaceuticals &

Nutraceuticals

Active Pharmaceutical

Products

Rationale of Acquisition

Niche product portfolio.

Direct entry to the developed

markets.

Complements Vivimed’s portfolio in

high growth ophthalmic segment.

Strong marketing field force to help

expand distribution reach.

Foray into booming generic API segment.

Source: Vivimed, Ventura research

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Benefits of Uquifa acquisition

Page 11: Vivimed labs ltd

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Feb, 2012

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Labs (50% stake) in 2011 for ` 24 crore and ` 5 crore respectively with presence in manufacturing and marketing of branded formulations.

Benefits KSPL and Octtantis acquisition

KSPL

150 MRs

50 TradeMarks

Presence in North-East, Bihar & AP

cGMP compliant manufacturing facility

at Kolkata &

Hyderbad

OcttantisNobel Labs

Presence in Pharmaceutical & Nutraceutical

Segment

Strong Distribution

Reach

Significant entry barriers to ensure limited competition and sustainability of growth

In the active ingediants market where product quality has precedence over price, becoming a preferred supplier to global majors is a strenuous and prolonged process. Vivimed with its quality offering has established strong relationships with global majors and over a time period has embedded itself within these multinationals and now is a supplier across a wide range of products.

Timeline of Product Basket Expansion

Unilever

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

L’oreal P&G

Page 12: Vivimed labs ltd

- 12 of 16 - Thursday 16th

Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Typical time-line to be embedded as a vendor to an MNC is 5-7 years thus raising the competitive bar. Further, the contracts are long term in nature ensuring stable revenues for a longer period of time. Considering these huge entry barriers, and expanding product portfolio of Vivimed, we are very comfortable with regards to revenue visibility.

Vivimed’s strong skill set for innovations, research based idea-generation right from creation of a molecule to partnering with a manufacturer provides the company with a significant competitive edge.

KEY CONCERNS

Mounting debt, a key risk to profitability

Especially in the current high interest environment, Vivimed’s debt by FY14 would be very high at `515 crore (debt equity ratio of 0.8). Since along with debt, significant

equity dilution has already been done leaving with very little scope for further expansion of equity. As the cash flows are strong, we forsee no issues with regards to debt serviceability. However, a sharp deterioration of economic environment & rise in interest rates can impact adversely.

Sample Quantities

Small/Trial Batches

Stabilization period

Commercial Quantities

3 to 6 months

6 to 9 months

15 to 18 months

6 to 9 Months

Activity Timelines

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Debt to Equity Interest Coverage to Debt/EBIDTA

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

FY11 FY12E FY12E FY14E

(%)(Rs.Crore)

Debt Debt to Equity

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

(%)

Interest Coverage Ratio Debt/EBIDTA (RHS)

Source:Vivimed, Ventura Research Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 13: Vivimed labs ltd

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Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Foreign Exchange Risk

Vivimed derives ~ 44% (FY11) of its revenue from the export markets which are set to rise further considering the recent acquisition abroad. Any adverse movement in the USD/INR in the wake of current global economic turmoil might affect company’s revenue and profitability adversely.

Financial performance

Vivimed Ltd has witnessed a steady 59.1% yoy growth in its top line to ` 168.0 crore in Q3FY12 as against ` 105.6 crore in Q3FY11 led by consolidation of the recently

acquired pharmaceutical companies. The EBITDA margins stood at healthy 19.8%. While, the PAT margins stood at 9.5%. We believe that Vivimed would register a strong growth in revenues in quarters to come led by strong product portfolio and recent acquisitions. In our view, the recent acquisitions would help the company maintain margins and foster a strong growth thus adding significant value. Further, the expansions would ensure growth in the current portfolio base ensuring a double benefit with mounting debt being the only concern.

Quarterly Financial Performance

Particulars Q3FY12 Q3FY11 FY11 FY10

Net Sales 168.0 105.6 416.9 343.4

Growth % 59.1

21.4

Total Expenditure 136.4 81.4 331.9 279.1

EBITDA 33.2 24.2 85.0 64.3

EBITDA Margin % 19.8 22.9 20.3 18.7

Depreciation 6.9 1.5 9.1 8.7

EBIT (EX OI) 26.3 22.7 75.9 55.6

Other Income 0.0 0.0 0.01 6.8

EBIT 26.3 22.7 75.9 62.4

Margin % 15.7 21.5 18.2 18.1

Interest 5.9 6.0 20.6 22.8

Exceptional items 0.0 0 0.0 0.0

PBT 20.4 16.7 55.3 39.6

Margin % 12.1 15.8 13.2 11.5

Provision for Tax 4.4 3.4 6.4 8.6

PAT 16.0 13.3 48.8 31.0

PAT Margin (%) 9.5 12.6 11.7 9.0

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Page 14: Vivimed labs ltd

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Feb, 2012

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial outlook

Aided by strategic acquisitions and continuous expansions, we expect Vivimed revenues to grow at a CAGR of 39.9 % to ` 1139.9 crore over the forecast period of

FY11-14. In addition, we haven’t factored additional revenues coming in from the launch of new products which should also help boost revenues and profitability. We expect Vivimed to maintain ~18% EBITDA margin (excl OI) over the forecasted period amidst volatile raw material prices. Consequently, we expect the PAT to grow at a CAGR of 31.7% to ` 111.6 crore in FY14E as compared to ` 48.8 crore in FY11.

Revenue and profitability trend

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E

(%)Rs. Crore

Revenue EBIDTA Margin(%) PAT Margin(%)

Source: Vivimed, Ventura Research

Valuation

At the CMP of ` 343, Vivimed is trading at 6.0x and 5.5x its estimated earnings for

FY13 and FY14. We initiate coverage on Vivimed Labs Ltd as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 468 (7.5x FY14 EPS) over a period of 24 months.

We have valued the stock at 36%% premium to its historical average valuation of 5.5x considering the robust product portfolio and the recent acquisitions. However, post the integration of the acquisitions, we expect Vivimed to be re-rated considering its enhanced global presence and broadened product portfolio. Vivimed’s earnings are expected to grow at a 31.7% CAGR over the forecast period FY11-14 which is far ahead of the sector’s growth.

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P/E

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13

CMP 3X 4X 5X 6X 7X

P/Adj.BV

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13

CMP 0.8X 1X 1.2X 1.4X 1.6X

EV/EBIDTA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Apr-07 Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13

EV 3.45X 4.45X 5.45X 6.45X 7.45X

Source: Ventura Research

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Financials & Projections

Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY 2011 FY 2012e FY 2013e FY 2014e Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY 2011 FY 2012e FY 2013e FY 2014e

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Sales 416.0 636.2 982.1 1139.9 EPS 48.0 42.3 57.1 62.4

% Chg. 52.9 54.4 16.1 Cash EPS 53.9 73.5 106.8 127.8

Total Expenditure 331.9 509.7 805.3 934.5 DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

% Chg. 53.6 58.0 16.0 Book Value 193.5 326.3 337.8 363.2

EBDITA 84.1 126.5 176.7 205.5 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBDITA Margin % 20.2 19.9 18.0 18.0 Debt / Equity (x) 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.8

Other Income 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 Current Ratio (x) 4.6 2.6 3.6 3.5

PBDIT 85.0 127.5 177.8 206.7 ROE (%) 24.8 13.0 16.9 17.2

Depreciation 9.1 26.1 27.2 29.0 ROCE (%) 16.4 14.8 16.6 17.5

Interest 20.6 26.8 34.7 36.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

PBT 55.3 74.5 116.0 141.3 Valuation Ratio (x)

Tax Provisions 6.4 15.7 24.4 29.7 P/E 7.1 8.1 6.0 5.5

Reported PAT 48.8 58.9 91.6 111.6 P/BV 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.9

PAT Margin (%) 11.7 9.3 9.3 9.8 EV/Sales 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.9

EV/EBIDTA 11.9 7.9 5.7 4.9

Raw Materials / Sales (%) 58.1 59.0 61.0 61.0 Efficiency Ratio (x)

Manpower cost / Sales (%) 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 Inventory (days) 74.1 75.0 75.0 75.0

Other Exp / Sales (%) 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 Debtors (days) 111.9 110.0 110.0 110.0

Tax Rate (%) 11.6 21.0 21.0 21.0 Creditors (days) 41.0 45.0 45.0 45.0

Balance Sheet Cash Flow statement

Share Capital 10.2 140.9 76.1 17.9 Profit After Tax 48.8 58.9 91.6 111.6

Reserves & Surplus 186.5 313.7 466.4 632.0 Depreciation 9.1 26.1 27.2 29.0

Minority Interest & Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes -106.2 -25.3 -170.6 -69.0

Total Loans 307.7 391.7 511.8 514.5 Others 0.5 1.2 0.0 0.0

Deferred Tax Liability 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 Operating Cash Flow -47.8 60.9 -51.8 71.6

Total Liabilities 519.1 861.0 1069.0 1179.0 Capital Expenditure -28.7 -35.8 -55.2 -84.7

Goodwill 84.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 Change in Investment 9.4 -315.0 0.0 0.0

Gross Block 223.3 791.8 823.0 877.7 Cash Flow from Investing -19.3 -350.8 -55.2 -84.7

Less: Acc. Depreciation 43.5 251.7 278.8 307.8 Proceeds from equity issue 1.9 201.2 0.0 0.0

Net Block 179.7 540.1 544.2 569.9 Inc/ Dec in Debt 72.4 84.0 120.1 2.7

Capital Work in Progress 1.7 18.0 42.0 72.0 Dividend and DDT -1.7 -3.3 -3.8 -4.2

Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash Flow from Financing 72.5 281.9 116.3 -1.5

Net Current Assets 246.4 263.6 443.5 497.8 Net Change in Cash 5.5 -8.0 9.2 -14.6

Misc Expenses 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 Opening Cash Balance 5.6 11.1 3.1 12.3

Total Assets 519.1 861.0 1069.0 1179.0 Closing Cash Balance 11.1 3.1 12.3 -2.3

Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.