WCTRS SIG11 Transport and the Environment and NU-SUSTRAC International

Symposium 13-14 November 2009 Nagoya on Transport and Climate Change

Visioning and Backcasting on Transport and the

Environment

David Banister

Professor of Transport Studies, University of Oxford

Director of the Transport Studies Unit

Acting Director of the Environmental Change Institute

Abstract

To really make an impact on tackling climate change over the longer term and even in the

next 10-20 years, it is necessary to think more strategically about global, national and city

wide futures. One approach to thinking about trend breaking futures is to use visioning

and backcasting as a form of scenario building. This paper presents the results of a

recently completed project on backcasting for London, where a 60% reduction target in

CO2 emission levels (on 1990 levels) has been set for the transport to 2025. This

challenging target is articulated through the baseline case and two images of the future,

one pushing the technology harder and the other emphasising the role of behavioural

change. Over 120 individual policy measures have been grouped together into mutually

supporting policy packages that are in turn assembled to see whether the targets set can

be reached. A simulation model has been developed to test the different pathways to

achieving the targets set, given a range of potentially different priority perspectives. The

difficulty of reaching the targets set can be demonstrated, even if all of the policy

packages are used. When the analysis is expanded to include international aviation and

the expected increases here over then next 20 years, the impossibility of target

achievement is clearly demonstrated.

Hickman, R, Ashiru, O and Banister, D (2009) Achieving carbon efficient transport:

Backcasting from London, Paper presented at the 88th TRB Annual Conference, January

2009 and accepted for publication TRB Paper 09 0476.

Banister, D and Hickman, R (2009) Techno-optimism: Progress towards CO2 reduction

in transport: A UK and London perspective, International Journal of Sustainable

Development 12(1), pp24-47.

Hickman, R and Banister, D (2007) Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced

CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030, Transport Policy 14(5), pp377-387.

See project website www.vibat.org