Sustainable Transport Futures:

Varvara Nikulina, Henrikke Baumann, David Simon and Frances Sprei

World Symposium on Sustainability Science

6th of April 2017

Manchester, UK

Analysis of the Selected Methodologies Supporting the Planning Process towards Achieving Goal 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Gothenburg, Sweden Kisumu, Kenya

Aim and scope

Foresighting SymbioCity Backcasting

Present Present Present

Future Future Future

Methodology

Study of the planning

process

Kisumu Gothenburg

Study of the current

situation of the stations

Results

Analysis

Conclusion

Test application of

methodologies to

the situation

Kisumu Gothenburg

Results

Planning processes in Gothenburg and Kisumu

Source: (Hellberg, 2014) Source: (KAM, 2016)

Current situation: organization of the system, key stakeholders, pertinent issues

Countygovernment

Citygovernment

Bus parkstaff Bus

park

Traders

Police

Insurancecompanies

SACCO or

limited

companies

Music copyrightsociety of

Kenya

Export vehicleinspection

center

Companiesissuing speedlimit certificate

Kenyarevenueauthority

Matatuowners

association

Conductor

DriverVehicle

Passengers

Touts

Nationaltransportation and

safety authority(NTSA)

Stakeholder Actor

Location Mean of transport

*

*SACCO - Savings and Credit Co-operatives

Futures methodologies in the given context

Backcasting

Ad

van

tag

es

vision

what should be done to achieve the

vision

avoid “lock-in” solutions

when traditional solutions do not

work

easy to apply, can be done by

individual

a range of alternatives to address

the issue

Dis

adv

anta

ges

future possibilities -> difficult to

design a strategy

qualitative data -> selection of

experts

Foresighting

a clear picture of how future could

look like if considered a number of

criteria

based on available technology

a range of alternatives to address the

issue

no creative solutions

“locked-in” to current state

wishful thinking

qualitative data -> selection of experts

SymbioCity

how the city would look like if the

guidance is followed

city from multiple perspectives

stakeholders with various

backgrounds

city as a whole

number of issues

the model can be adapted to the

local context

“locked-in” to current state

big number of experts

Conclusions

Kisumu: Foresighting [no historical data]

Gothenburg: SymbioCity [some parts]

Kisumu: Backcasting [+participation, strategy; -land use, #stakeholders, language]

SymbioCity [+city level, parts; -short term thinking]

Gothenburg: backcasting [+creative solutions; - #stakeholders]

Foresighting [+future image; -basis for the result]

Not beneficial Beneficial

Thank you! Varvara Nikulina

PhD Candidate in Strategic Sustainable Development

Blekinge Institute of Technology, Mistra Urban Futures,

371 79, Karlskrona, SWEDEN Chalmers University of Technology,

varvara.nikulina@bth.se 412 96, Gothenburg, SWEDEN

direct: +46 455 38 55 59

mobile: +46 734 22 36 22

References

• Hellberg, S., and P. Jonsson. 2014. Gothenburg 2035: Transport Strategy for a Close-Knit City. Gothenburg: City of Gothenburg.

• KAM. 2016. "Kisumu County Government presents Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan." Kenya Association of Manufacturers. KAM. May 13. Accessed July 12, 2016. Kisumu County Government presents Integrated Strategic Urban Development Plan.