viral and retention model
DESCRIPTION
Models the number of active users of a viral appTRANSCRIPT
Summary
Orig Author:Orig Author blog:Adjusted byAdjusted blog:Last updated:License
Note:
Viral Marketing on Facebook(How does viral saturation affect active user count)
Jeremy Liew ([email protected])
3/9/2008Distributed for free under GNU Free Documentation License - http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html
Viral Marketing on Facebook(How does viral saturation affect active user count)
As your app increases in usage and hits saturation, low retention rates can cause your app to "jump the shark" - here's a simplified model showing how it happensAndrew Chen ([email protected])http://andrewchen.typepad.com/
http://lsvp.wordpress.com/
If you have questions, anything to add, or want to generally chat, don't hesitate to reach me at my e-mail address, voodoo [at] gmail --Andrew Chen
invite conversion rate % 10%avg invites 8.00 initial user base 3,000 carrying capacity 100,000
time period saturation % conversion % (adj)1 0% 10.0%2 3% 9.7%3 5% 9.5%4 9% 9.1%5 16% 8.4%6 27% 7.3%7 43% 5.7%8 62% 3.8%9 81% 1.9%
10 93% 0.7%11 98% 0.2%12 100% 0.0%13 100% 0.0%14 100% 0.0%15 100% 0.0%16 100% 0.0%17 100% 0.0%18 100% 0.0%19 100% 0.0%20 100% 0.0%
Simplified viral marketing model(with reduced conversion % as userbase saturates)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Cumulative users over time
Time period
To
tal
users
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Cumulative users over time
Time period
To
tal
users
conversions / user new users cumulative users 3,000
0.78 2,328 5,328 0.76 4,035 9,363 0.73 6,789 16,153 0.67 10,835 26,987 0.58 15,763 42,751 0.46 19,580 62,330 0.30 18,784 81,114 0.15 12,255 93,369 0.05 4,953 98,322 0.01 1,320 99,642 0.00 285 99,927 0.00 58 99,985 0.00 12 99,997 0.00 2 99,999 0.00 0 100,000 0.00 0 100,000 0.00 0 100,000 0.00 0 100,000 0.00 0 100,000
Simplified viral marketing model(with reduced conversion % as userbase saturates)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Cumulative users over time
Time period
To
tal
users
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Cumulative users over time
Time period
To
tal
users
Time period1 2 3 4 5
retention rate % 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Time-period cohorts
1 3,000 1,500 900 630 504 2 2,328 1,164 698 489 3 4,035 2,018 1,211 4 6,789 3,395 5 10,835 6789
1011121314151617181920
active users 3,000 3,828 6,099 10,135 16,433
Active user count model(with viral and retention rates factored in)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Active users over time
Time period
Acti
ve u
sers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Active users over time
Time period
Acti
ve u
sers
Time period6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
95% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 454 431 414 397 381 366 351 337 391 352 334 321 308 296 284 273 847 678 610 580 556 534 513 492 2,037 1,426 1,141 1,027 975 936 899 863 5,417 3,250 2,275 1,820 1,638 1,556 1,494 1,434 15,763 7,882 4,729 3,310 2,648 2,383 2,264 2,174
19,580 9,790 5,874 4,112 3,289 2,960 2,812 18,784 9,392 5,635 3,945 3,156 2,840
12,255 6,128 3,677 2,574 2,059 4,953 2,476 1,486 1,040
1,320 660 396 285 143
58
24,910 33,598 38,077 34,976 27,335 20,779 16,926 14,921
Active user count model(with viral and retention rates factored in)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Active users over time
Time period
Acti
ve u
sers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Active users over time
Time period
Acti
ve u
sers
Time period14 15 16 17 18 19 20
96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 324 311 298 286 275 264 253 262 251 241 232 222 213 205 473 454 436 418 401 385 370 828 795 763 733 704 675 648 1,377 1,322 1,269 1,218 1,169 1,123 1,078 2,087 2,003 1,923 1,846 1,772 1,701 1,633 2,700 2,592 2,488 2,389 2,293 2,201 2,113 2,698 2,590 2,487 2,387 2,292 2,200 2,112 1,853 1,760 1,690 1,622 1,557 1,495 1,435 832 749 711 683 656 629 604 277 222 200 190 182 175 168 86 60 48 43 41 39 38 29 17 12 10 9 8 8 12 6 3 2 2 2 2
2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0
13,837 13,135 12,572 12,061 11,576 11,113 10,668