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ChangeWave Research: Consumer Smart Phone Trends

Consumer Smart Phones: 90 Day OutlookMobile Wars: Samsung Bursts Out of the Gate to Start the New Year

Jean Crumrine and Paul Carton

Overview: ChangeWave’s latest consumer smart phone survey shows an explosive wave of momentum is catapulting Samsung to its all-time high in a ChangeWave survey, even as Apple demand remains strong three months after the iPhone 5 release.

The December 11-27, 2012 survey took a close-up look at North American smart phone trends, with 88% of the 4,061 respondents to the survey residing in the United States. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.

Apple vs. Samsung: Next 90 Days North American Demand

One-in-two North American respondents (50%) planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’ll get an iPhone. While that’s down from last quarter’s survey – conducted just as the iPhone 5 was being released – historically speaking it’s a strong showing for Apple.

At the same time, the percentage planning to buy a Samsung smart phone in the next 90 days has experienced a giant 8-pt surge – soaring from 13% to 21%.

The Samsung North American results are even more extraordinary considering the Galaxy S III has been out for several months and by now we’d normally expect to see a post-release slowdown.

But as the following 5-year chart of consumer planned buying trends shows, just the opposite is occurring:

This information is from ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, LLC, and contains confidential business information.It may not be copied or distributed without permission. © 2013 451 Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

January 16, 2013


What accounts for such strong Samsung momentum?

A major clue can be seen in the breakdown of Samsung models consumers plan on buying in the next 90 days. While the Galaxy S III (69%) is still the most popular model, it’s the super-large screen Samsung “Phablet” – the Galaxy Note II (23%) – that’s the surprise here.

Planned SamsungBuyers:

Next 90 Days

Current Survey Dec ‘12

Samsung Galaxy S III 69%Samsung Galaxy Note II 23%Samsung ATIV S 1%Samsung Other 7%

Demand for the new Samsung combo smart phone/tablet – featuring a 5.5 inch screen – is exceptionally impressive. Moreover, the Samsung device may well be a game changer with major implications for the mobile industry. (Note that a follow-up ChangeWave survey of new Samsung Galaxy Note II owners will be the subject of an upcoming report.)

Other Manufacturers. Consumer planned buying of Motorola smart phones (4%) is up 2-pts in the current survey, while planned buying of HTC devices (2%) is up 1-pt.

Nokia (3%) is also seeing a 1-pt increase this quarter – an encouraging sign for its Windows 8 Lumia devices and overall strategic partnership with Microsoft.


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And after hitting an all-time low in the previous survey, RIM (4%) is seeing a small but hopeful sign – a 3-pt uptick in planned buying. Note that RIM is launching its long-anticipated BlackBerry 10 operating system this month. Nonetheless, it’s still a long way from again being considered a serious competitor in the consumer smart phone market.

Other Smart Phone TrendsOverall Purchasing. In the aftermath of the holiday shopping season and the iPhone 5 launch, overall smart phone purchase plans have calmed this quarter. But the 16.6% of respondents who say they plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days is greater than a year ago – and still one of the highest levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Customer Satisfaction. Customer satisfaction is a primary predictor of future smart phone demand. As in previous ChangeWave surveys, the Apple iPhone maintains its industry leading satisfaction ranking – 70% of overall iPhone owners say they’re Very Satisfied with their phone. When we look at iPhone 5 owners only, the Very Satisfied rating jumps to 80%.

Percentage of Respondents Very Satisfied with their Smart Phone – By Manufacturer


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In a surprise finding Nokia has climbed to second place here, with 56% of its smart phone owners saying they’re Very Satisfied with their device. The reason for this becomes more apparent in the next section of this report, when we look at satisfaction results by mobile operating system – including Windows Phone, the primary OS for Nokia smart phones.

Samsung rounds out the top three manufacturers in customer satisfaction with a strong 55% Very Satisfied rating among owners of its smart phones.

Mobile Operating Systems

Among consumers planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days, the Apple iOS (49%; down 19-pts) remains the number one preference. But as expected, that number is down from the huge spike we saw during the iPhone 5 release. A total of 28% of planned buyers say they’d prefer to have the Android OS on their new phone – up 12-pts since September. Only a small percentage prefers the BlackBerry OS (4%), but that’s up 3-pts from its all-time low in OS preference recorded last quarter.

Importantly, in the aftermath of the Windows 8 Phone launch, the new Microsoft mobile OS (7%) is also up 3-pts to its highest level of the past three years.

*In surveys prior to Sep ‘12 the response choice was either Windows Phone 7 or Windows Mobile

OS Customer Satisfaction. We took a close-up look at OS customer satisfaction based upon the operating system consumers have on their smart phones. As in previous ChangeWave surveys, Apple remains the clear leader here – with 71% of customers using the Apple iOS saying they are Very Satisfied.

But there is further encouraging news for the Windows Phone 8 operating system in terms of OS customer satisfaction (53%). For the first time ever it is beating the Android Operating System (48%).


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Most importantly, a closer look shows a substantially higher Very Satisfied rating for Windows Phone 8 (76%) versus the 39% rating for the older Microsoft mobile operating system (Windows Phone 7).

Consumer Intent to Purchase Windows 8 Smart PhonesWhich manufacturer is best set to capitalize on future demand for Windows 8 smart phones? We looked at consumer intent to purchase Windows 8 smart phones and found the following:

*Based on the 56% of likely Windows 8 smart phone buyers who know which manufacturer they will buy from


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Of course, many planned Windows 8 smart phone buyers do not yet know which manufacturer they'll buy from. But among the 56% who do know what they’re likely to buy, Samsung (43%) is currently best positioned and Nokia (41%) is a very respectable second.

Bottom Line: Exactly a year ago, our ChangeWave consumer smart phone survey forecasted that Samsung and Apple would explosively outperform the rest of the marketplace in 2012. That certainly proved the case in the intervening 12 months. Now our latest survey shows this momentum continuing in 2013.

A new wave of North American demand has catapulted Samsung to its all-time high in planned smart phone purchases. And there’s more to come.

The next generation Samsung “Galaxy S IV” is expected during first half 2013 – and when we asked consumers how likely they are to buy it, an extraordinary 17% said they’re likely (3% Very Likely; 14% Somewhat Likely). This is considerably higher than an earlier ChangeWave survey on the Galaxy S III at the time of its North American release.

While the "Galaxy S IV" findings are of course still speculative, they point to massive interest in this next gen Samsung offering.

Above and beyond Galaxy S, the Galaxy Note II “Phablet” represents yet another major driving force for Samsung. The explosive demand for the Galaxy Note II in our latest survey suggests the era of large screen smart phones may be upon us. As further evidence, when planned smart phone buyers were asked about their screen preferences, more than one-in-four (27%) said they’re interested in a 5 inch or larger screen.

What screen size are you most interested in buying? Current Survey Dec ‘12

Less Than 3 Inch Screen 3%3.0-3.9 Inch Screen 18%4.0-4.9 Inch Screen 52%5 Inch Screen or Larger 27%

With regard to Apple, while it’s been three months since their latest smart phone release, the iPhone 5 is still going strong – one-in-two North American planned buyers say they’ll get an iPhone. Clearly Apple’s momentum, along with Samsung’s, is largely occurring at the expense of the rest of the industry.

While the ever-expanding smart phone market is large enough for both giants to be extremely successful, the survey results also show a potential opening for the Microsoft Windows Phone 8 operating system as well.

To date, the Windows Phone 8 OS has the highest customer satisfaction rating of the entire Microsoft Windows 8 rollout (ahead of Windows RT for tablets and Windows 8 for PCs). And it’s not only our latest consumer survey that’s showing real potential for the Microsoft mobile OS, but we’re picking up serious interest on the corporate side as well.


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Summary of Key Findings

The ChangeWave Research Network is a group of 25,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries—credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, and converts the information into proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.


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Samsung Bursts From the Gate to Start the New YearSamsung Planned Smart Phone Purchases Among respondents planning

to buy a smart phone in next 90 days, Samsung (21%) is seeing a giant 8-pt surge – soaring from 13% to 21%

Galaxy S III (69%) is most popular model among planned Samsung buyers, but super-large screen Samsung “Phablet” – the Galaxy Note II (23%) – is biggest surprise

Strong Interest in Big Screen Smart Phones 27% of planned smart phone

buyers say they’re most interested in 5 inch or larger screen

Demand for Next Gen ‘Galaxy S IV’ 17% say they’re likely to buy

Samsung ‘Galaxy S IV’ smart phone in future (3% Very Likely;14% Somewhat Likely)

Apple iPhone 5 Still Going StrongiPhone Planned Purchases One-in-two planned buyers

(50%) say they’ll get an iPhone

Three months after iPhone 5 release, Apple continues to dominate North American smart phone market

Other Manufacturers: Planned Purchases RIM (4%; up 3-pts) Motorola (4%; up 2-pts) Nokia (3%; up 1-pt) HTC (2%; up 1-pt)

Smart Phone Customer Satisfaction Ratings Apple (70% Very Satisfied) Nokia (56%) Samsung (55%) Motorola (43%) HTC (37%) RIM (25%)

Mobile Operating SystemsCustomer Satisfaction Apple iOS (71% Very

Satisfied) – unchanged Windows Phone OS (53%) –

up 3-pts Android OS (48%) – up 2-pts RIM OS (26%) – up 4-pts

Windows Phone 8 OS Shows Real Potential Windows Phone 8 Customer

Satisfaction Rating (76%) Windows Phone 7 (39%)

Which Manufacturer Best Set to Capitalize on Windows 8 Smart Phone Demand? Samsung (43%) Nokia (41%) HTC (14%)


Table of Contents

Summary of Key Findings.............................................................................................7

The Findings...................................................................................................................9

Next 90 Days: Smart Phone Manufacturer Demand...................................................9

Overall Smart Phone Purchasing..............................................................................13

Smart Phone Customer Satisfaction.........................................................................14

Mobile Operating Systems .......................................................................................15

Consumer Intent to Purchase Windows 8 Smart Phones ........................................18

Other Findings for Samsung.....................................................................................19

How are Consumers Using Smart Phones?..............................................................21

ChangeWave Research Methodology........................................................................22

About ChangeWave Research....................................................................................22

About 451 Research.....................................................................................................22


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The Findings Introduction: ChangeWave’s latest consumer smart phone survey shows an explosive wave of momentum is catapulting Samsung to its all-time high in a ChangeWave survey, even as Apple demand remains strong three months after the iPhone 5 release.

The December 11-27, 2012 survey took a close-up look at North American smart phone trends, with 88% of the 4,061 respondents to the survey residing in the United States. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.

(A) Next 90 Days Smart Phone Manufacturer DemandFuture Manufacturer Share. One-in-two North American respondents (50%) planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’ll get an iPhone. While that’s down from last quarter’s survey – conducted just as the iPhone 5 was being released – historically speaking it’s a strong showing for Apple.

At the same time, the percentage planning to buy a Samsung smart phone in the next 90 days has experienced a giant 8-pt surge – soaring from 13% to 21%.

The Samsung North American results are even more extraordinary considering the Galaxy S III has been out for several months and by now we’d normally expect to see a post-release slowdown.

But as the following 5-year chart of consumer planned buying trends shows, just the opposite is occurring:


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What accounts for such a strong Samsung momentum?

A major clue can be seen in the breakdown of Samsung models consumers plan on buying in the next 90 days. While the Galaxy S III (69%) is still the most popular model, it’s the super-large screen Samsung “Phablet” – the Galaxy Note II (23%) – that’s the surprise here.

Planned SamsungBuyers:

Next 90 Days


Samsung Galaxy S III 69%Samsung Galaxy Note II 23%Samsung ATIV S 1%Samsung Other 7%

Demand for the new Samsung combo smart phone/tablet – featuring a 5.5 inch screen – is exceptionally impressive. Moreover, the Samsung device may well be a game changer with major implications for the mobile industry. (Note that a follow-up ChangeWave survey of new Samsung Galaxy Note II owners will be the subject of an upcoming report.)

Other Manufacturers. Consumer planned buying of Motorola smart phones (4%) is up 2-pts in the current survey, while planned buying of HTC devices (2%) is up 1-pt.

Nokia (3%) is also seeing a 1-pt increase this quarter – an encouraging sign for its Windows 8 Lumia devices and overall strategic partnership with Microsoft.


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And after hitting an all-time low in the previous survey, RIM (4%) is seeing a small but hopeful sign – a 3-pt uptick in planned buying. Note that RIM is launching its long-anticipated BlackBerry 10 operating system this month. Nonetheless, it’s still a long way from again being considered a serious competitor in the consumer smart phone market.


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Who is the manufacturer of the Smart Phone you plan on buying?


Previous Survey Sep ‘12

PreviousSurveyJun ‘12

PreviousSurveyMar ‘12

PreviousSurveyDec ‘11

PreviousSurveySep ‘11

Apple (e.g., iPhone) 50% 71% 50% 56% 54% 65%Samsung (e.g., Galaxy S III, Galaxy Note II, Galaxy Nexus)

21% 13% 19% 13% 13% 5%

Research In Motion (e.g., Blackberry) 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 3%Motorola (e.g., Droid Razr Maxx HD, Droid 4, Atrix HD, Photon Q)

4% 2% 4% 6% 7% 5%

Nokia (e.g., Lumia 920, Lumia 820) 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%LG (e.g., Google Nexus 4, Optimus G, Enlighten, Spectrum 2)

3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0%

HTC (e.g., Windows Phone 8X, One X+, Droid DNA)

2% 1% 3% 3% 3% 6%

Palm/H-P (e.g., Veer 4G, Pre 2, Pixi) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Sony (e.g., Xperia TL, Xperia ion) 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%Don't Know/ Other 14% 11% 18% 16% 18% 16%

A Closer Look at Apple Buying Intentions. We also asked consumers who plan on purchasing an Apple smart phone to tell us which model they’re most interested in buying.Not surprisingly, the iPhone 5 (84%) overwhelmingly dominates among planned Apple buyers.

For those who plan on buying an Apple smart phone, which specific model are you most interested in buying?

Planned AppleBuyers:

Next 90 Days


Apple iPhone 5 84%Apple iPhone 4S 14%Apple iPhone 4 2%


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(B) Overall Smart Phone Purchasing

In the aftermath of the holiday shopping season and the iPhone 5 launch, overall smart phone purchase plans have calmed this quarter. But the 16.6% of respondents who say they plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days is greater than a year ago – and still one of the highest levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.


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(C) Smart Phone Customer Satisfaction

Customer satisfaction is a primary predictor of future smart phone demand. As in previous ChangeWave surveys the Apple iPhone maintains its industry leading ranking, with 70% of iPhone owners saying they’re Very Satisfied with their phone. Among iPhone 5 owners only the Very Satisfied rating jumps to 80%.

Percentage of Respondents Very Satisfied with their Smart Phone – By Manufacturer

In a surprise finding Nokia has climbed to second place here, with 56% of its smart phone owners saying they’re Very Satisfied with their device. The reason for this becomes more apparent in the next section of this report, when we look at satisfaction results by mobile operating system – including Windows Phone, the primary OS for Nokia smart phones.

Samsung rounds out the top three manufacturers in customer satisfaction with a strong 55% Very Satisfied rating among owners of its smart phones.


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(D) Mobile Operating Systems

Among consumers planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days, the Apple iOS (49%; down 19-pts) remains the number one preference. But as expected, that number is down from the huge spike we saw during the iPhone 5 release.

A total of 28% of planned buyers say they’d prefer to have the Android OS on their new phone – up 12-pts since September. Only a small percentage prefers the BlackBerry OS (4%), but that’s up 3-pts from its all-time low in OS preference recorded last quarter.

Importantly, in the aftermath of the Windows 8 Phone launch, the new Microsoft mobile OS (7%) is also up 3-pts to its highest level of the past three years.

*In surveys prior to Sep ‘12 the response choice was either Windows Phone 7 or Windows Mobile


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OS Customer Satisfaction

We took a close-up look at OS customer satisfaction based upon the operating system consumers have on their smart phones. As in previous ChangeWave surveys, Apple remains the clear leader here – with 71% of customers using the Apple iOS saying they are Very Satisfied.

But there is further encouraging news for the Windows Phone 8 operating system in terms of OS customer satisfaction (53%). For the first time ever it is beating the Android Operating System (48%).

Most importantly, a closer look shows a substantially higher Very Satisfied rating for Windows Phone 8 (76%) versus the 39% rating for the older Microsoft mobile operating system (Windows Phone 7).


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Importance of OS Consistency Among Electronic Devices by Current OS Used

We also asked respondents how important it is for all of their electronic devices to run the same operating system.

How important to you - if at all - is it for all of your electronic devices (e.g., computer, tablet, smart phone) to run the same operating system?

TotalCurrent Smart Phone OS

iOS Android Windows Phone

BlackBerryOS

Very Important 13% 22% 7% 22% 6%Somewhat Important 33% 39% 33% 41% 32%Not Very Important 30% 27% 38% 24% 35%Not Important At All 17% 9% 18% 12% 21%Don’t Know/ No Answer 7% 3% 4% 2% 6%

A total of 13% of all smart phone owners say it’s Very Important that all their electronic devices run the same operating system. But smart phone owners currently using iOS (22%) or Windows Phone (22%) are three times more likely to say it’s Very Important than are users of either Android (7%) or BlackBerry (6%) OS.


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(E) Consumer Intent to Purchase Windows 8 Smart Phones

Which manufacturer is best set to capitalize on future demand for Windows 8 smart phones? We looked at consumer intent to purchase Windows 8 smart phones and found the following:

From which manufacturer are you most likely to buy your Windows 8 smart phone?

*Based on the 56% of likely Windows 8 smart phone buyers who know which manufacturer they will buy from Of course, many planned Windows 8 smart phone buyers do not yet know which manufacturer they'll buy from. But among the 56% who do know what they’re likely to buy, Samsung (43%) is currently best positioned and Nokia (41%) is a very respectable second.


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(F) Other Findings for Samsung

Consumer Intent to Purchase Samsung “Galaxy S IV” Phone

And there’s more to come for Samsung. The next generation Samsung “Galaxy S IV” is expected during first half 2013. We asked consumers how likely they would be to buy a Samsung “Galaxy S IV” smart phone when it becomes available.

Some analysts think Samsung may release its next generation “Galaxy S IV” during the first half of 2013. In addition to the new “Premium Suite” software upgrade, one anticipated new feature is an “unbreakable” screen.

How likely is it that you will buy a new Samsung "Galaxy S IV" for yourself or someone else (e.g., a family member) if-and-when it becomes available?

An extraordinary 17% said they’re likely to buy a new “Galaxy S IV” in the future (3% Very Likely; 14% Somewhat Likely). This is considerably higher than an earlier ChangeWave survey on the Galaxy S III at the time of its North American release.

Likelihood of Purchasing

“Galaxy S IV”CurrentSurveyDec ‘12

Likelihood of PurchasingGalaxy S III

PreviousSurveyJun ‘12

Very Likely 3% 2%Somewhat Likely 14% 7%

While the "Galaxy S IV" findings are of course still speculative, they point to massive interest in this next gen Samsung offering.


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Strong Interest in Big Screen Smart Phones

The explosive demand for the Galaxy Note II in our latest survey suggests the era of large screen smart phones may be upon us. As further evidence, when planned smart phone buyers were asked about their screen preferences, more than one-in-four (27%) said they’re interested in a 5 inch or larger screen.

What screen size are you most interested in buying?


Less Than 3 Inch Screen 3%3.0-3.9 Inch Screen 18%4.0-4.9 Inch Screen 52%5 Inch Screen or Larger 27%


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(G) How are Consumers Using Smart Phones?

We asked consumers what they use their smart phones for, and not surprisingly Making/ Receiving Phone Calls (99%) tops the list, followed by Sending/Receiving Email (88%) and Sending/Receiving Text Messages (88%). Other popular uses include Surfing the Web (79%), Getting News/Weather (74%), Taking/Editing Pictures (65%) and Using Apps (64%).

We also took a closer look at usage by the type of OS running on the smart phone and found some interesting differences. Beyond the top uses mentioned previously, Calendar/ Scheduling, Listening to Music, Online Shopping, and Recording Video stand out as activities more popular among iPhone owners than owners running either Android or Windows Phone.

GPS Navigation/Directions and Using Business Applications are activities Windows Phone OS owners are more likely to use their phone for than iPhone or Android owners, while activities they’re less likely than other OS owners to use their phone for include Using Apps, Listening to Music and Online Shopping.

Here are the complete results:

In which of the following ways do you currently use your smart phone? (Check All That Apply)

All Smart Phone

Owners

AppleiOS

UsersAndroidUsers

WindowsPhoneUsers

Making/Receiving Phone Calls 99% 99% 99% 100%Sending/Receiving Email 88% 90% 87% 91%Sending/Receiving Text Messages 88% 92% 87% 81%Surfing the Web 79% 83% 81% 75%Getting News/Weather 74% 83% 73% 56%Taking/Editing Pictures 65% 71% 65% 50%Using Apps 64% 77% 63% 34%GPS Navigation/Directions 62% 69% 65% 75%Calendar/Scheduling Features 58% 69% 48% 47%Listening to Music 43% 54% 35% 28%Sharing Pictures/Video with Others 42% 48% 40% 34%Playing Games 33% 39% 31% 31%Recording Video 32% 39% 30% 25%Social Networking (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) 31% 35% 31% 31%Working Away From the Office 31% 34% 28% 25%Price Comparison Shopping While Inside a Store 28% 32% 29% 34%Online Shopping 25% 32% 20% 3%Digital Assistant/Voice Commands (e.g., Siri, S Voice, Google Voice Search)

22% 27% 20% 9%

Reading eBooks 16% 20% 16% 9%Using Business Applications 15% 18% 12% 19%Storing/Managing Files in the Cloud 13% 16% 12% 16%Making Mobile Payments (i.e., use like a credit card) 10% 12% 9% 3%Watching TV Shows/Movies 8% 11% 7% 3%Video Conferencing 6% 9% 2% 0%Editing Documents/Spreadsheets 6% 6% 7% 9%Remote Desktop Connections 6% 7% 5% 3%Other 2% 2% 3% 3%


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ChangeWave Research MethodologyThis report presents the findings of a ChangeWave Research survey on consumer demand trends within the Smart Phone market. The survey was conducted December 11-27, 2012 and a total of 4,061 consumers participated.

ChangeWave's proprietary research and business intelligence gathering system is based upon the systematic gathering of valuable business and investment information directly over the Internet from accredited members of its research network.

The business and investment intelligence provided by ChangeWave provides a real-time view of companies, technologies, and consumer and business trends in key market sectors, along with an in-depth perspective of the macro economy – well in advance of other available sources.

About ChangeWave ResearchChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, is a survey research firm that identifies and quantifies change in corporate buying & business trends, telecom trends, and consumer spending & electronics trends.

The ChangeWave Research Network is a group of 25,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals – as well as early adopter consumers – who work in leading companies of select industries. ChangeWave surveys its Network members weekly on a range of business and consumer topics, and converts the information into a series of proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports. ChangeWave delivers its products and services on the Web at www.ChangeWaveResearch.com.

451 Research, LLC, including its ChangeWave Research service, does not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this report. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.

About 451 Research451 Research, a division of The 451 Group, is a leading global analyst and data company focused on the business of enterprise IT innovation. Clients of 451 Research – at end-user, service-provider, vendor, and investor organizations – rely on 451 Research’s insight through a range of syndicated research and advisory services to support both strategic and tactical decision-making. For additional information on 451 Research, go to: 451research.com.

For More Information:ChangeWave Research Telephone: 301-250-23637101 Wisconsin Ave. Fax: 240-200-3988Suite 1301 www.ChangeWaveResearch.comBethesda, MD 20814 [email protected]


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