verification of lm @ dwd ulrich damrath & ulrich pflüger
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Verification of LM @ DWD
Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification activities
• Operational verification– surface weather elements (SYNOP)– precipitation (high density network)– verification of vertical profiles using TEMPs
and AMDARs
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification activities
• Preoperational verification & research– verification of LME– verification of precipitation forecasts using the
pattern recognition method by Ebert– suggestion about common verification
procedures in the future
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 2 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 10 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of scores for QPF over Germany
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H < 800 m
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H > 800 m
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts DJF 2004/05 00 UTC H < 800 m
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts MAM 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJ 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of GME
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2002
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2003
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2004
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 1
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 2
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 3
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 4
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Geopotential17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
27.09.2003
New GME
27.09.2003
New GME
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Wind Velocity17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
27.09.2003
New GME
27.09.2003
New GME
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Temperature17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
27.09.2003
New GME
27.09.2003
New GME
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Relative Humidity16.09.2003
Prognostic Cloud Ice
16.09.2003
Prognostic Cloud Ice
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, RMSE, ...
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, BIAS, ...
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...
2.39
2.56
2.34
2.53
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME experiment, BIAS, ...
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Using ODB as a tool within verification
• Observational Data Base: data base filled with observations (used during assimilation cycle) and differences between observations and forecasts
• requires special software to install and to run• enables introduction of sql-statements to extract
observations and differences FC-OBS under any conditions (i.e. get surface temperature values [or errors] over the Alps in cases if inversion occures in Payerne between 1000 and 850 hPa)
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COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
That‘s all,thank you for
your attention!